Economia do petróleo e desenvolvimento: estudo exploratório sobre as perspectivas do pré-sal brasileiro

A pesquisa analisa as possibilidades abertas pela exploração de petróleo na camada pré-sal, avaliando de que maneira a expansão do setor petrolífero poderá acelerar o crescimento econômico brasileiro e contribuir para novas estratégias de desenvolvimento. A hipótese inicial é que o Brasil enfrenta uma restrição estrutural de balanço de pagamentos, que poderá ser amenizada pela diminuição das importações de petróleo e derivados e pelo aumento do valor exportado no setor. Para avaliá-la são resgatados aspectos históricos e geopolíticos relacionados ao petróleo, assim como são tratadas as características microeconômicas dos recursos naturais não renováveis. Também se consideram questões de ordem macroeconômica, como a especialização produtiva da economia brasileira e sua inserção no comércio internacional, discutindo como o desenvolvimento da indústria petrolífera poderá afetá-las. Para tanto, a investigação fundamenta-se na teoria estruturalista e nos modelos de crescimento com ênfase na restrição externa. O trabalho examina ainda os casos da Rússia, Venezuela e México para avaliar a experiência de países exportadores de petróleo. Como contribuição, um modelo de crescimento é utilizado para realizar simulações acerca do Brasil, cobrindo o período 2013-2020 com a formulação de três cenários. A partir dos resultados discute-se que a necessidade de consecução das metas fiscal e de inflação pode desencadear políticas restritivas que limitam a utilização da folga fiscal e externa, oriundas do pré-sal, para induzir o crescimento. Conclui-se que um círculo virtuoso de desenvolvimento com mudança estrutural depende não apenas da modernização produtiva, mas também, e principalmente, da evolução político-institucional do país

O papel do BNB/FNE na economia nordestina pós 1990

O presente trabalho objetiva analisar o papel do crédito vinculado às tentativas de fomentar a modernização da estrutura econômica nordestina. Tal procedimento se sustenta nos financiamentos do BNB, o qual se configura como instituição financiadora do processo de industrialização da Região Nordeste. O principal fundo à essa finalidade é o FNE. Dessa maneira avaliaremos também a importância do crédito na dinâmica de regiões periféricas como o nordeste o é. Assim, indaga-se: tais mecanismos foram relevantes para eliminar os gargalos produtivos do Nordeste através da modernização de sua economia? O direcionamento do fundo ocorreu de forma a diminuir o hiato intra-regional? A suposição do trabalho é que tais fundos configuraram-se como essenciais à economia nordestina, no entanto, insuficientes para a finalidade a qual foram criados. Usa-se uma pesquisa bibliográfica alicerçada na literatura pertinente, associada a uma análise documental, a qual permite a utilização de dados estatísticos que demonstrem o desempenho do BNB referente ao objetivo do FNE. Finalmente, nota-se que, tanto houve uma concentração no direcionamento do fundo para setores menos complexos, o que contribuiu para a manutenção estrutural da economia nordestina, como o fundo atuou de forma espacialmente imperfeita garantindo a desconcentração de apenas algumas sub-regiões

Desenvolvimento nacional, desenvolvimento regional e moeda: notas teóricas à luz da economia política do desenvolvimento

This work analyses the ability of National States and regions have to formulations development strategies. Redeeming the initial development concept as a conflictual process, the hypothesis is that it presents internal and external constraints, as the latter have a higher preponderance, revealed the role played by money. In this case, one can point to as sub-hypothesis that the growth models with external constraint, mainly through the balance of payments, may illustrate the fact that countries are subject to international economic interactions that limit the possibility of bringing acylating strategies well successful in overcoming backwardness. For the specific case of regions, indicates that the external constraint remains an element of embarrassment for regional development, but redeems itself the center-periphery relations in this context to discuss the role of monetary and financial system as an explanation for the disparities regional income. On the domestic front, we highlight the importance of social structures of accumulation as an element of internal cohesion necessary to achieve successful development trajectories. It points also to the importance of the State in the process rescuing some of the main theoretical contributions of the political economy of development, incorporating the concept of globalization on theoretical frameworks presented. This construction where development depends on the actions of external and internal conditions, where money plays a key role as a guideline for reflections on regional development. The attempt was to transplant our considerations on the general development to address the case of regions. Finally, we conclude by greater confidence in the hypothesis and sub-hypotheses of departure, which led to propositions of economic policies

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

Crescimento econômico e restrição externa: evidências empíricas na economia brasileira (1991-2010)

This study aims to investigate the influence of the balance of payments constrained on economic growth in Brazil from 1991 to 2010. With this order, are shown some of the Keynesian balance of payments constrained growth models, inspired by Thirlwall (1979) and Kaldor (1970), which are supported by important points in common, such as adherence to the principle of effective demand. Given that within this theoretical perspective, there is no consensus about the best model to explain the growth rate allowed by the balance of payments constraint, the results are presented by the representative of the empirical literature that addresses the topic, which are necessary for understand the Brazilian case. From the estimation of the income elasticity of imports (0.85) via autoregressive vectors with error correction (VEC), it was calculated five growth rates of income, as predicted by the models of Thirlwall (1979), Thirlwall and Hussain (1982), Moreno-Brid (1998, 2003) and Lourenço et al. (2011) and compared with the actual growth rate. The empirical analysis has shown that: it can not reject the presence of external constraint in the Brazilian economy, there is a strong similarity in growth rates provided by different modeling suggest that growth with external constraint. In addition, when using data in quarterly for the period after 1990 there are no factors that could cause instability in the parameters of the import function (income elasticity and price elasticity of imports) within the period, which indicates that the structural break widely associated with the year 1994 was not confirmed by this study

Distribuição dos recursos do FNE para o setor turístico entre os estados nordestinos, no período de 1998/2004

The work aims to analyze the criteria that supported the geographic distribution of credit with FNE funds for the private tourism sector in the period 1998-2004 the Northeast, which is the maturing of a significant part of investments in the region I PRODETUR . The working hypothesis is that the credit allocation for the tourism industry, with FNE funds among the Northeastern states during the period analyzed broke with the trend towards concentration of credit in the richer economies of the region. The investigation concluded that there is enough evidence to enhance the degree of confidence in that hypothesis. However, the allocation criteria do not only benefited the poorest economies, nor directed lending while building on the weight that the tourism sector held in state economies

A economia solidária sob a perspectiva do desenvolvimento endógeno: o caso da cooperativa de coleta seletiva e reciclagem amigos do planeta - Lauro de Freitas/BA (2004/2013)

In recent decades, the collective leadership of the Solidary Economical Enterprises (ESS) that are active in providing collection and recycling services, has been presented as a proposal for the organization of urban space with the creation of new enterprises and solidarity production chains. Are activities that have gained a new stimulus to the creation of the National Secretariat of Solidarity Economy and the National Policy on Solid Waste that assigned a leading role in these social actors. These experiences contribute to building a participatory development path, resembling with the pluralistic perspective of development of the Indian economist Amartya Sen, that goes beyond the simplistic design of the increased income, focusing on the process of expanding freedoms that people enjoy. The aim of this work is to situate the perspective of endogenous development with the Collection Services segment and Material Recycling in the field of Solidarity Economy, through the analysis of the experience of the Cooperative of Selective Collection and Recycling Friends of the planet, located in the municipality of Lauro to Freitas - BA, from 2004 to 2013. for this the following procedures were adopted: analysis of the main contributions of the international literature on the phenomenon of pluriactivity; review of national literature that analyzes the emergence and evolution of the projects of solidarity economy in Brazil; bibliographical and documentary research; and socio-economic evaluation of the EES. The guiding problem of this work, understandably, is: what is the meaning of endogenous perspective with the Materials Collection and Recycling Services segment in the field of Solidarity Economy? It starts with the hypothesis that the development of these practices requires an environment that removes the main sources of deprivation involving the conditions of existence of these enterprises. The results show that not enough development to be built with the participation of social actors, but there are minimally necessary conditions for such experiences can take hold in order to achieve their goals. Thus, not only is it a strictly economic issue, but requires political actions for a process of social transformation.

Gastos públicos em educação municipal: uma análise da eficiência-custo na gestão dos recursos no ensino fundamental no estado do Rio Grande do Norte

This study evaluates the cost effectiveness of municipalities in the state of Rio Grande do Norte in the execution of spending in basic education carried out in 2011, as well as analyze the determinants of the inefficiency of the same. For this, we used two methodological approaches (i) stochastic frontier cost, and (ii) analyze data envelopment (DEA), which allows to identify the efficient frontier of the municipalities analyzed non-parametrically. Results show that municipalities under review achieved low efficiency rates in the stochastic frontier cost, while the DEA method they achieved higher rates where nineteen among them reached full efficiency. The results suggest that a significant portion of the Potiguar municipalities should review its administrative practices, especially the means of allocation of resources. In regard to determining the efficiency observed distinct results by the two methods.

A transformação da Associação de Professores do Rio Grande do Norte (APRN) em Sindicato dos Trabalhadores em Educação (1986-1990)

El estudo que ahora apresentamos habla a respecto ala transformaçión de la Asociación de maestros del Rio Grande del Norte (APRN en sindicato de los trabajadores en educación (SINTE) en el período de 1986 1990. Tratase basicamiente de las razones que llebaran historicamente la APRN la reorganizar sus luchas, su cultura política y el su movimiento reivindicatório; que impulsionaran la construción del próprio sindicato el único de la categoria, após el regime militar em el país especialmente en el gobierno Sarney, y en el ánbito estadual com la resistência la política econômica y la repreción policial del gobierno Geraldo Melo, la época. El estudo también apunta algunas caraterísticas marcantes del contexto histórico de la educación nacional, enfatizando la asención de la escuela nueva en el Brasil en las décadas de 1920 y 1930, inclusive delante del movimiento sindical, controlado por el gobierno Vargas que tênia uma praetica corporativista. Es importante decir que esas características estavan juntas del contexto local, en el rato en que se percebia la primer gestan del prof Anfilóquio Cámara, como el primer presidente de la APRN, al partir de la su fundación (1920), y que tênia um relacionamento bastante estrecho com el poder público estadual de caráter liberal. Habia una discución sobre la abertura política y la atuación política de las clases médias brasileñas ya em 1979, y al mismo tiempo analisabase el desencandeamiento del nuevo sindicalismo en el ABC Paulista, mientras uno movimiento sindical, autônomo y democrático que tênia el objetivo de juntar lãs luchas de los operários dentro y fuera de las fábricas reivindicando basicamiente: la redución de la jornada del trabajo, reajuste de sueldo y condición del trabajo, bien como lãs sus consecuencias para el movimiento de los educadores potigurares. Al hacer en septembre de 1989, el sindicato de los trabajadores en educación del Rio Grande del Norte se desvincula definitivamiente de uma estructura sindical vertical (tradicional), que la ex-APRN herdo al longo de su História del gobierno Vargas, siempre controlada pelo Estado y que en las décadas de 1980 y 1990 fue fortalecido por la CNTE (Confederación Nacional de los Trabajadores en la, educación), principalmente, a partir del Congreso Nacional de Unificación de los Trabajadores en la Educación, realizado en Aracaju/SE em el período de 25 a 28 de enero de 1990 en el sentido tambien de las sus principais reivindicaciones: escuela pública, gratuita y de cualidades en todos los pasos, verbas públicas solamiente para las escuelas públicas, reposición de los reajustes de sueldo, condición del trabajo, sueldo unificado nacional y la eradicación del analfabetismo

Mercado de trabalho, ocupações e rendimentos: a Região Metropolitana de Natal na década de 1990

The aim of this study is the labour market at Natal Metropolitan Region with emphasis in occupations and incomes that took place at the nineties. The definition of its chronological boundaries passed by verification of existence of evident socio-spatial impacts for output, occupation and income in national economy, with rebounds in all national territory, conditioned by institutional and socio-economical transformations which marked Brazilian insertion to capital flows and commodities globalization movement that took place at the cited decade. It has been shown that such impacts did not distributed themselves equally between diverse spatial levels (great regions, federate unities, municipalities) because of historical specificities in each place in terms of output structures and organization of distinct social agents. Having as its basis the Marxist perspective, it tackled theoretically occupations and incomes, transformations in labour universe occurred at world level, mainly in most urbanized areas, and following that to focus changes occurred in Brazilian society related to the search for competitive insertion in global economy during the period regarded. Special attention was gave to Natal Metropolitan Region, because it was historically a concentration area for investments, productive structure, people, occupations and incomes generated/appropriated in Rio Grande do Norte State. The basic data sources for research were the demographic Census (micro data) made by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) intending to present the structure and the labour market dynamics, having as basis: 1) traditional indicators about labour market; 2) sectors of economic activities and 3) social positions and classes segments. One of the purposes is the demonstration that occupations and incomes keep relation with the restructuring which occurred in each specific sector during the period. Other purpose is to make explicit the factors which bear the participation of distinct segments in production or service execution that make possible the different participation in income distribution. Results are revealing the increasin precariousness in labour market, enlargement of occupations in tertiary sector and greater concentration of average incomes in the social segments which were owners of the greatest capital allowances between residents in Natal Metropolitan Region during the nineties

Caminhos e descaminhos dos municípios produtores de petróleo: o papel dos royalties no desempenho das finanças públicas municipais no estado do Rio Grande do Norte

It analyzes the magnitude, the nature and the direction of public revenues and the public expenses in oil and natural gas producing municipalities in the state of Rio Grande do Norte in the post-constituent period, and, more precisely, from the approval of Law 9.478/97, called Oil Law . It argues the fiscal federalism normative theory, the typology and the role of the intergovernamental transferences in the performance of the public finances of the local governments. Shows that the economy of Rio Grande do Norte went through deep social-economic changes in the last few decades, among which includes the discovery of the oil and the natural gas and its importance for the growth of the industrial and services sectors. It points out that the increase of the production and the international price of the oil contributed for the growth in revenues of royalties and the special participation in the beneficiary cities, what did not mean an automatic increase in the resources destined to the investment and in the quality on the provision of the goods and services come back toward the local development. On the contrary, the main conclusion of the work is that the trajectory of the oil producing municipalities is marked by paths and embezzlements in the performance of the public finances and in the provision of public goods and services. Paths, that lead to the improvement of the performance of the public finances and the quality of the public goods and services. Embezzlements, that lead to the inefficiency in the provision of goods and services and the capture of the public resources. That is, the fiscal decentralization is a necessary condition, however not enough to improve the amount and the quality of the public goods and services given by these municipalities. For that it is necessary to advance in the fiscal federalism normative theories, in search of optimum model of federalism in local governments where still predominated by patrimonialism, clientelism, fiscal illusion and the capture of the public resources in benefit of the private interests

A Fruticultura Irrigada de pequenos produtores no Baixo-Açu: Uma análise da eficiência de custo

This work has as an objective analyze the efficiency of producers costs of the irrigation Project Baixo-Açu , and identify the determining factors of this efficiency. To achieve these targets it was estimated, in a first stage, a frontier of costs by the method, non parametric of Data Envelopment Analysis-DEA, and measured the stakes of efficiency producers. On the second stage, it was utilized the Tobit regression pattern, estimating an inefficiency function of costs, and were indentified the associated factors of resources waste. Among the results found it was noticed the existence of a high waste of resources, that represent more than 54% of effective cost. Among the factors with the highest wastes are: energy, herbicides, defensives and chemical fertilizers. In a general way, the producers presented low efficiency level and, only, two, of seventy-five researched, achieved the frontier of costs minimization. These results reveal, in a certain way, that the producers in irrigated fruit growing in the project Baixo-Açu don t seek to minimize the production costs. It was still noticed, that the reduction of resources waste, and this way the inefficiency of costs, is associated with the agriculturalist education, his experience in agriculture, his access to the technical assistance and credit

Efeitos das transferências intergovernamentais sobre as finanças públicas dos municípios do Rio Grande do Norte (2001-2010)

The Brazilian tax structure has specific characteristics and the performance level of government. The autonomy given to municipalities to manage their activities after the 1988 Constitution, made them highly dependent on intergovernmental transfers of resources, revealing the fragility of the administrative capacity of these entities. The vertical gap revealed by the constitutional structure of the Brazilian fiscal federalism model contributes to the formation of this specific feature that you are eroding the tax base and the ability of municipal own revenues. Although there was a better regulation of these transfers after the enactment of the Fiscal Responsibility Law, it is observed that the amount of resources transferred to the municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte is very high and is the main source of revenue of municipalities. In light of the theory of federalism and fiscal decentralization, in particular, the theories related to intergovernmental transfers, we seek to diagnose the transfers from the systematization of information on the origin, destination and value. We used the econometric model of System Dynamic Panel GMM in making the diagnosis and verification of the impact of transfers on public finances of the municipalities of the newborn, associated with a review in light of the theory of fiscal federalism and intergovernmental transfers. The paper presents some proposals for the transfer system and the composition of spending in order to contribute to greater tax efficiency

A eficiência do gasto e da qualidade da saúde pública: uma análise nos municípios do estado do Rio Grande do Norte (2004 e 2008)

The overall objective of this study is to analyze the efficiency in the use of resources and the quality of public health in the municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte, from 2004 to 2008. It also seeks to identify the determinants of municipal inefficiency and measure the productivity of public spending on health. To this end, three methods of analysis are used: the DEA, the Malmquist index and the Tobit regression model. Among other findings, it appears that municipalities considered more inefficient in the measurement of expenditure on health make the largest expense in this function. On the other hand, from 2004 to 2008, only 13 municipalities showed an increase in the productivity of public spending. It is also noted that municipalities considered efficient in quality of health, although having more physical and human resources, offer fewer health services to the population. In all, the major determinants of health spending inefficiencies are the variables: age of the mayor, coalition, population density, literacy race and budget revenues. Regarding the inefficiency of the health quality, variables such as: coalition, literacy race have strong influence on this behavior. Thereby, the hypotheses proposed by the study have been fully accepted. In other words, for the efficiency of the quality and health spending it is needed more than resources, i.e., the expenditure shows itself as essential, but not enough, for political and economic aspects also interfere with the performance of spent and in the quality of health care offered to the population

Eficiência nos gastos públicos em educação fundamental: uma análise nos municípios do estado do Rio Grande do Norte, 2007 e 2011

This paper aims to measure the degree of efficiency in the allocation of public resources in education from the FUNDEB in elementary education in the towns of Rio Grande do Norte in 2007 and 2011. To do so, we must determine to evaluate the efficiency in the allocation of public resources in municipal education in the early and last grades of elementary education; verify that the towns that achieved higher levels of efficiency that were allocated the largest volumes of resources in primary education and analyze which towns reached the worst and the best levels of efficiency in the allocation of public resources in education. This is on the assumption that the relation between the educational policies of local governments and concern for efficiency in the allocation of resources in education is limited only to increase spending on education. It is intended from the model of Data Envelopment analysis, (DEA), with Variable Returns to Scale (VRS), estimate the efficiency of spending on education and municipal pubic purging the problem of outliers. Estimations show that the municipalities of Rio Grande do Norte do not allocate their resources in public elementary education efficiently