145 resultados para Probabilidade e Estatística Aplicadas


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In the current climate of global public health there is the emergence of urban dengue, a disease regarded as acute infectious fever. The disease annually, has affected millions of people worldwide, mostly in the range of the intertropical globe. The disease's main vector in urban areas, the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Recent studies indicate that the distribution of the insect vector of dengue in the geographical area is directly tied to the behavior of environmental restrictions that area, especially among those, the air temperature and relative humidity. From that context, the work aims to estimate and spatializing, monthly, for each municipality in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, the potential of biophysical conditions conducive to the development of Aedes aegypti. Yet, made use of the following methodology: collection of epidemiological data and climatological, Normal climatological, descriptive statistics (measures of central tendency and scatter), uniform distribution, estimation geostatistics and sufer program, version 8.0. The results flagged for a behavior very heterogeneous, both in space and in time, in the case of the potential of biophysical conditions conducive to the development of Aedes aegypti in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. Still, he noted that there is a tendency for lifting the potential of development for the entire state, from the month of January, ending in the month of April mainly in central and western portions of the state. By contrast, there is the permanence of increased potential for development in the eastern portion of the state. The latter record maximum potential in the month of July, resulting probability of greater than 70% have been favorable conditions for the development of Aedes aegypti in that area. In the period between the months of August to December, it is small potential for development of Aedes aegypti in all parts of the state

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This study analyzes the perceptions of technical and administrative UFPA, in relation to the insertion of the components and assumptions of DBP in evaluation practice. Addresses the history, concepts, meanings, about AD methods, skills, evaluation skills, the APF and AD UFPA and Programme itself. The research is characterized as a hypothetical-deductive, descriptive and applied, using the case study. Data were analyzed using a quantitative approach, using the descriptive and inferential statistics. Data were collected through the application of questionnaires to 222 technical and administrative searched IFES, not occupants of FG and CD. The results indicate that the factors perceived in relation to the constituent elements such as: evaluation practice, measurement of competence, program management, timing, individual skills and fundamentals of the program and those related to assumptions such as: democratic process, integrative perspective, character development and pedagogical continuous evaluation practices are perceived in the evaluation process. The study concludes that comparing the results of the constituent elements and assumptions of the PAD of thechnical-administrative UFPA, it can be said about a tendency to change, though subtle, compared to the traditional model of AD, directed only to the granting of career progression for a new logic based on the results, showing an early effectiveness of the program evaluation practice by law and by the Institution. The results are confirmatory of advance evaluation practice in the institution, more so than has previously been expected, which demonstrates the value of scientific criteria of scientific research

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Through the comparative critical analysis of the demanded urbanistic parameters in the legislation and of the urbanistic index found in the Rocas neighbourhood, having as study object the already consolidated constructions of residential use, intended to demonstrate that the neighbourhood needes specific norms and that the limits established for recognition of Special Areas of Social Interest for the urbanistic legislation of the City of Natal would have to be reviewed and to be brought up to date, once they show occupations like the ones of the reffered neighbourhood. At a first moment, bibliographical revision and elaboration of the theoretical referencial had been made, , to analyze afterwards the urbanistic legislation for the neibourhood of Rocas, that determines relative parameters for the sizes of land lots, coefficients of exploitation, minimum taxes of occupation and retreat. Through a field research in the area, a study on the occupation description was done at first, characterization of the neibourhood through the study of the social-economic aspects, of the existing infrastructure in the place, environmental aspects, morphologic and tipolgic analysis of the neibourhood as a whole. From the grouping of the found characteristics, sub-zones had been delimited, where the real object of study was detached to be analyzed. From the Sub-zoning, a statistic sampling was carried through with the intention to examine which of the urbanistic index is found in the dwellings of that already materialized place. This sampling, of one hundred and eighteen residences, was carried through by measurement of the lots and existing constructions in these places. Through this survey, for each habitacional unit, area of the lot, constructed area, retreats and coefficient of exploitation had been calculated. The comparison between the legislation parameters and the index found in the place reveal an expressive index of urbanistic irregularity and the necessity of special regulation for the Rocas neibourhood due to its specific social-space characteristic

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This study aims to compare the thermal performance of tiles made from recycled material (waste packaging cardboard with aluminized film) with the tiles of fiber and bitumen, fiber cement and red ceramic with the aim of verifying the suitability of tile to be used in hot and humid climate of low latitude. The samples were selected according to the availability from Natal RN market, as they are sold to the consumers. The methodology was based on studies that used experimental apparatus composed of thermal chambers heated by banks of incandescent bulbs, to analyze the thermal performance of materials. The tiles in the study were submitted to analysis of thermal performance, thermophysical properties and absorptance, using chambers of thermal performance, measuring the thermophysical properties and portable spectrometer, respectively. Comparative analysis of thermal performance between two samples of the recycled material with dimple sizes and different amounts of aluminum were made, in order to verify, if these characteristics had some interference on the thermal performance of them; the results showed no significant performance differences between the samples. The data obtained in chambers of thermal performance and confirmed by statistical analysis, showed, that the tile of recycled material have similar thermal performance to the tile of fiber cement. In addition to these tests was carried out the automatic monitoring of a building covered with tiles of recycled material, to verify its thermal performance in a real situation. The results showed that recycled shingles must be used with technical criteria similar to those used for fiber cement tiles, with regard to the heat gain into the building. Within these criteria should be taken into account local characteristics, especially in regions with hot and humid climate, and its use must be associated, according to the literature, to elements of thermal insulation and use of passive techniques such as vented attics, ceilings and right foot higher

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Peng was the first to work with the Technical DFA (Detrended Fluctuation Analysis), a tool capable of detecting auto-long-range correlation in time series with non-stationary. In this study, the technique of DFA is used to obtain the Hurst exponent (H) profile of the electric neutron porosity of the 52 oil wells in Namorado Field, located in the Campos Basin -Brazil. The purpose is to know if the Hurst exponent can be used to characterize spatial distribution of wells. Thus, we verify that the wells that have close values of H are spatially close together. In this work we used the method of hierarchical clustering and non-hierarchical clustering method (the k-mean method). Then compare the two methods to see which of the two provides the best result. From this, was the parameter � (index neighborhood) which checks whether a data set generated by the k- average method, or at random, so in fact spatial patterns. High values of � indicate that the data are aggregated, while low values of � indicate that the data are scattered (no spatial correlation). Using the Monte Carlo method showed that combined data show a random distribution of � below the empirical value. So the empirical evidence of H obtained from 52 wells are grouped geographically. By passing the data of standard curves with the results obtained by the k-mean, confirming that it is effective to correlate well in spatial distribution

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The robustness and performance of the Variable Structure Adaptive Pole Placement Controller are evaluated in this work, where this controller is applied to control a synchronous generator connected to an infinite bus. The evaluation of the robustness of this controller will be accomplished through simulations, where the control algorithm was subjected to adverse conditions, such as: disturbances, parametric variations and unmodeled dynamic. It was also made a comparison of this control strategy with another one, using classic controllers. In the simulations, it is used a coupled model of the synchronous generator which variables have a high degree of coupling, in other words, if there is a change in the input variables of the generator, it will change all outputs simultaneously. The simulation results show which control strategy performs better and is more robust to disturbances, parametric variations and unmodeled dynamics for the control of Synchronous Generator

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Considering a non-relativistic ideal gas, the standard foundations of kinetic theory are investigated in the context of non-gaussian statistical mechanics introduced by Kaniadakis. The new formalism is based on the generalization of the Boltzmann H-theorem and the deduction of Maxwells statistical distribution. The calculated power law distribution is parameterized through a parameter measuring the degree of non-gaussianity. In the limit = 0, the theory of gaussian Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution is recovered. Two physical applications of the non-gaussian effects have been considered. The first one, the -Doppler broadening of spectral lines from an excited gas is obtained from analytical expressions. The second one, a mathematical relationship between the entropic index and the stellar polytropic index is shown by using the thermodynamic formulation for self-gravitational systems

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In this work a study of social networks based on analysis of family names is presented. A basic approach to the mathematical formalism of graphs is developed and then main theoretical models for complex networks are presented aiming to support the analysis of surnames networks models. These, in turn, are worked so as to be drawn leading quantities, such as aggregation coefficient, minimum average path length and connectivity distribution. Based on these quantities, it can be stated that surnames networks are an example of complex network, showing important features such as preferential attachment and small-world character

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This thesis aims to show teachers and students in teaching and learning in a study of Probability High School, a subject that sharpens the perception and understanding of the phenomea of the random nature that surrounds us. The same aims do with people who are involved in this process understand basic ideas of probability and, when necessary, apply them in the real world. We seek to draw a matched between intuition and rigor and hope therebyto contribute to the work of the teacher in the classroom and the learning process of students, consolidating, deepening and expaning what they have learned in previous contents

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For contain beneficial properties, aluminum alloys are gaining more importance in different industrial areas, becoming the subject of study in several academic fields. When related to welding these alloys have some peculiarities that may hinder the union, such as microscopic oxide layer present on the metal surface. The MIG welding process, also known as GMAW, has developed versions that can be effective for welding aluminum. Knowing this, for this paper, two versions of pulsed MIG (CC + and CA) were chosen to evaluate which best suits pass by filling bevel on AA5083 aluminum sheets with 8 and 12 mm thick respectively. Furthermore, two types of wire, ER5087 and ER5183 were evaluated. To evaluate the process and versions of the wires, the high-speed cameras and thermal were used to monitor the metal transfer and the thermal behavior respectively, and the metallographic analysis for macrographic view of the weld beads and non-destructive testing by radiography for observation of possible discontinuities. It was found that the technique of MIG-P CA showed better results ahead of another technique both welding conditions imposed. When connected to the wires, they showed similar results, with uniform cords and seamless

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This paper analyzed the relation between participation and school autonomy, observing Director actions and School Council actions and if school has pedagogic, administrative and financial autonomy. This is a descriptive search, with quantitative approach, realized in 47 state schools in Rio Grande do Norte, and composed by 292 participants, divided in 3 groups (Direction, Coordination and School Council). The instrument to catch data was a questionnaire and the data treatment realized by way descriptive statistic and inferences using X 2 test. The results show that school administration is composed in great part by women with specialization grade. All schools have School Council and Financial Council, but have not Parents and Masters Association and just one of them has Student Guild. The direction choose process is, in 83% of the schools, by elective way. The indicators show that the relation involving family, society and school stays weak, but Directors, Coordinators and School Council members develop their functions with coherence. About autonomy, it is limited and presents correlation with participation, but the educational system stays rigid and centralizer

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The study of mortality by various differentials has been an important tool to guide public health policies, due to better describing the events of deaths in a population. This research aims to seek disparities in mortality according to educational level, sex and adulthood in large Brazilian regions and consequently for Brazil as a whole. A vast literature has shown that people with more education tend to have lower risk of death. Studies on inequalities in mortality by level of education in Brazil are still very specific and has still known very little about Brazil about mortality according to educational level, due to lack of information about the well-filled school in the records of deaths arising from the Mortality Information System (MIS) of the Ministry of Health. This data source has shown improvement in the coverage of sub reports in the last decade, however, it has still perceived negligence in completing the question regarding schooling of death (about 30% of registered deaths in 2010 to Brazil, Given this scenario, this work contributes to the national literature on the behavior of adult mortality differentials having as proposed, using data from the new variable mortality of the 2010 Census (CD 2010), assuming the characteristics of education of the head the household for deaths occurring in the same. It is therefore considered that the probability of mortality is homogeneous within the household. Events of deaths were corrected only for the records come from households where the head possessed levels of schooling and Instruction Elementary Education No Incomplete and Primary Education and Secondary Education Complete Incomplete through the Generations Extinct Adjusted method. With deaths already corrected, probabilities of death were calculated between 15 and 60 years life, as well as tables by sex and level of education to all regions of Brazil. No que se refere às probabilidades de morte por idade, nas idades entre 15 e 60 anos as maiores probabilidades seguem um gradiente, maior probabilidade para os menos escolarizados. Results corroborate the literature, the more educated the population is, the greater the life expectancy. In all Brazilian regions, life expectancy of the female population is greater than that of men at all levels of schooling. With respect to probabilities of death by age between the ages of 15 and 60 years the most likely follow a gradient, most likely to the least educated. At older ages (from 70 years), this behavior has presented another pattern, the lowest level of education has the lowest odds in the regions, North, Northeast, South and Midwest, except in the Southeast region

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES

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This dissertation considered the development of two papers, both related to mortality in Brazil. In the first article, "The context of mortality according to the three broad groups of causes of death in Brazilian capitals, 2000 and 2010", the objective was to analyze the mortality rate according to the three major groups of causes of death in Brazilian capitals. In the second article, "Typology and characteristics of mortality from external causes in the municipalities in the Northeast of Brazil, 2000 and 2010", it was built up a typology for the Northeastern municipalities taking into account information on mortality from external causes and a set of indicators related to socioeconomic, demographic, and infrastructure aspects of such municipalities, both articles for the years 2000 and 2010. Thus, we used data from the Mortality Information System of the Ministry of Health. Furthermore, it was used information from the Demographic Census for those years. The variables relating to socioeconomic and demographic conditions used in this study were those available on the home page of the United Nations Program for Development. The variables relating to socioeconomic and demographic conditions used in this study were those available on the home page of the United Nations Program for Development. Was used in Article 1 the pro-rata distribution method to accomplish the redistribution of ill-defined causes. Moreover, made use of the technique of cluster analysis with the aim of grouping the capital that had proportions of deaths from ill-defined causes similar to each other. Already in Section 2, we used the technique of Empirical Bayesian estimation; spatial statistics technique; and finally, the Grade of Membership method to find types of municipalities from information on mortality from external causes associated with socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure variables. As the main results, it stands out in Article 1, in relation to data quality, we observed the formation of four groups of similar capital between themselves, as the proportion of illdefined causes. Regarding the behavior of mortality, according to the three major groups of causes of death, it was noted both for 2000 and for 2010 the prevalence of deaths from noncommunicable diseases for both sexes, although the reduction was identified rates in some of the capitals. Communicable diseases stood out as the second cause of death among women. Also, we found that deaths due to external causes are responsible for the second cause of death among men, as well as presenting an increase among women. As for the Article 2, stands out, in general, not just an extension of mortality from external causes in the municipalities, as well as an enlargement of the configurator stain existence of external cause deaths for the whole area of Northeast. Regarding the typology of municipalities, three vi extreme profiles were buit: the profile 1, which comprises municipalities with high rates of mortality from external causes and the best social indicators; the profile 2, that was composed of municipalities that are characterized by having low mortality rates from external causes and the lowest social indicators; and the profile 3, that brings together municipalities with intermediate mortality rates and median values considered in relation to social indicators. Although we have not seen changes in the characteristics of the profiles, we observed an increase in the proportion of municipalities that belong to the extreme profile 3, taking into account the mixed profiles.

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This research aims to analyze the housing conditions and socioeconomic of beneficiaries of the Bolsa Família Program – PBF of the North side of Natal city. For that, it is necessary a survey of this region's origins and how its expansion has occurred in the context of local urban development, considering demographic evolution, in particular, from the construction of housing complex and formal and informal allotments. From the field research, consisting of a pilot in loco with some households, it became possible to start the analysis of housing conditions that culminated with a detailed study of the Single Register form of the federal Government (CadÚnico), in relation to 100% (one hundred percent) of the beneficiaries of the Bolsa Familia program (PBF) of Natal city, with qualitative and quantitative information. From this general survey, a cut was done, contemplating only beneficiaries residing in the north of the city. To better understand this reality, the survey found the Brazilian housing deficit, considering its origins, historical contexts and concepts used by the following institutions: João Pinheiro Foundation (FJP), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Applied Economics Research Institute (IPEA), and Local Plan Housing of Social Interested (PLHIS) and the United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (UN-HABITAT). Furthermore, were compared the various concepts of city and its respective evolution, considering the importance of planning as an instrument of public policy necessary to governmental actions and permanent policy of State. As a result, there are a detach about the deficit and housing conditions in the city of Natal, mainly North Zone, pointing out the importance of using the Unified Register of the federal government as an effective tool to measure the living conditions of Brazilian municipalities.