Contribuição da teoria do caos para a gestão do turismo: uma análise a partir da percepção dos gestores da hotelaria de Natal/RN

O presente estudo tem como objetivo analisar como os gestores da hotelaria percebem a relação da teoria do caos e turismo, descrever como é pensada e concebida a gestão do turismo; mostrar as características caopléxicas do turismo e sua gestão e identificar os elementos do padrão estratégico de gestão e planejamento na visão dos gestores dos Meios de Hospedagem. Os dados foram obtidos através da observação direta intensiva e aplicação de entrevistas aplicadas junto aos hoteleiros da cidade de Natal/RN. Constata que as teorias da mudança e do caos proporcionam visão do conjunto de relações, aspectos e implicações do turismo, com base nas incertezas e instabilidades ambientais e de mercado. Mostra que a maioria dos modelos de análise, planejamento e gestão do turismo ainda é limitada, em razão do seu caráter linear e unidimensional. Destaca que o objetivo da teoria do caos é fornecer explicações dos fenômenos, não é fazer previsões, pois é impossível prever o futuro a longo prazo. Trata das estratégias de gestão como geradoras de novas fontes de incerteza, pois a realidade não pode ser completamente representada por modelos. Ter consciência desses fatos significa, entretanto, considerar o campo de múltiplas possibilidades e oportunidades da mudança e do caos na gestão do desenvolvimento do turismo. Essas idéias foram aplicadas à análise da gestão do turismo na localidade investigada. Os questionamentos levantados no estudo pautaram-se em pesquisa bibliográfica, fundamentada, principalmente, em autores como Beni, Prahalad, Mintzberg, Ritto, Senge e Hamel. Conclui-se que na era do conhecimento, as organizações que continuam presas ao paradigma mecanicista têm dificuldade de acompanhar as mudanças do mercado e sendo a hotelaria uma indústria de serviços que tem características organizacionais complexas e adaptativas, é imprescindível que os empreendimentos hoteleiros funcionem como sistemas interativos, que acompanhem as mudanças de um mercado tão turbulento e instável tendo na teoria do caos e da complexidade uma das possibilidades de compreender a realidade fora do modelo mecanicista.

Física estatística aplicada a sistemas sociais através do estudo de redes complexas

In this work a study of social networks based on analysis of family names is presented. A basic approach to the mathematical formalism of graphs is developed and then main theoretical models for complex networks are presented aiming to support the analysis of surnames networks models. These, in turn, are worked so as to be drawn leading quantities, such as aggregation coefficient, minimum average path length and connectivity distribution. Based on these quantities, it can be stated that surnames networks are an example of complex network, showing important features such as preferential attachment and small-world character

Estudo de Fractalidade e Evolução Dinâmica de Sistemas Complexos

In this work, the study of some complex systems is done with use of two distinct procedures. In the first part, we have studied the usage of Wavelet transform on analysis and characterization of (multi)fractal time series. We have test the reliability of Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima method (WTMM) in respect to the multifractal formalism, trough the calculation of the singularity spectrum of time series whose fractality is well known a priori. Next, we have use the Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima method to study the fractality of lungs crackles sounds, a biological time series. Since the crackles sounds are due to the opening of a pulmonary airway bronchi, bronchioles and alveoli which was initially closed, we can get information on the phenomenon of the airway opening cascade of the whole lung. Once this phenomenon is associated with the pulmonar tree architecture, which displays fractal geometry, the analysis and fractal characterization of this noise may provide us with important parameters for comparison between healthy lungs and those affected by disorders that affect the geometry of the tree lung, such as the obstructive and parenchymal degenerative diseases, which occurs, for example, in pulmonary emphysema. In the second part, we study a site percolation model for square lattices, where the percolating cluster grows governed by a control rule, corresponding to a method of automatic search. In this model of percolation, which have characteristics of self-organized criticality, the method does not use the automated search on Leaths algorithm. It uses the following control rule: pt+1 = pt + k(Rc − Rt), where p is the probability of percolation, k is a kinetic parameter where 0 < k < 1 and R is the fraction of percolating finite square lattices with side L, LxL. This rule provides a time series corresponding to the dynamical evolution of the system, in particular the likelihood of percolation p. We proceed an analysis of scaling of the signal obtained in this way. The model used here enables the study of the automatic search method used for site percolation in square lattices, evaluating the dynamics of their parameters when the system goes to the critical point. It shows that the scaling of , the time elapsed until the system reaches the critical point, and tcor, the time required for the system loses its correlations, are both inversely proportional to k, the kinetic parameter of the control rule. We verify yet that the system has two different time scales after: one in which the system shows noise of type 1 f , indicating to be strongly correlated. Another in which it shows white noise, indicating that the correlation is lost. For large intervals of time the dynamics of the system shows ergodicity

A teoria da ruína aplicada em um modelo de empresa financeira com risco de crédito

In this work we study a new risk model for a firm which is sensitive to its credit quality, proposed by Yang(2003): Are obtained recursive equations for finite time ruin probability and distribution of ruin time and Volterra type integral equation systems for ultimate ruin probability, severity of ruin and distribution of surplus before and after ruin

Contribuições para o processo de verificação de satisfatibilidade módulo teoria em Event-B

Event-B is a formal method for modeling and verification of discrete transition systems. Event-B development yields proof obligations that must be verified (i.e. proved valid) in order to keep the produced models consistent. Satisfiability Modulo Theory solvers are automated theorem provers used to verify the satisfiability of logic formulas considering a background theory (or combination of theories). SMT solvers not only handle large firstorder formulas, but can also generate models and proofs, as well as identify unsatisfiable subsets of hypotheses (unsat-cores). Tool support for Event-B is provided by the Rodin platform: an extensible Eclipse based IDE that combines modeling and proving features. A SMT plug-in for Rodin has been developed intending to integrate alternative, efficient verification techniques to the platform. We implemented a series of complements to the SMT solver plug-in for Rodin, namely improvements to the user interface for when proof obligations are reported as invalid by the plug-in. Additionally, we modified some of the plug-in features, such as support for proof generation and unsat-core extraction, to comply with the SMT-LIB standard for SMT solvers. We undertook tests using applicable proof obligations to demonstrate the new features. The contributions described can potentially affect productivity in a positive manner.

Rotação e processos de acreção e coalescência em sistemas planetários e sistemas binários

The discovery of giant stars in the spectral regions G and K, showing moderate to rapid rotation and single behavior, namely with constant radial velocity, represents one important topic of study in Stellar Astrophysics. Indeed, such anomalous rotation clearly violates the theoretical predictions on the evolution of stellar rotation, since in evolved evolutionary stages is expected that the single stars essentially have low rotation due to the evolutionary expansion. This property is well-established from the observational point of view, with different studies showing that for single giant stars of spectral types G and K values of the rotation are typically smaller than 5kms−1 . This Thesis seeks an effective contribution to solving the paradigm described above, aiming to search for single stars of spectral types G and K with anomalous rotation, tipically rotation of moderate to rapid, in other luminosity classes. In this context, we analyzed a large stellar sample consisting of 2010 apparently single stars of luminosity classes IV, III, II and Ib with spectral types G and K, with rotational velocity v sin i and radial velocity measurements obtained from observations made by CORAVEL spectrometers. As a first result of impact we discovered the presence of anomalous rotators also among subgiants, bright giants and supergiants stars, namelly stars of luminosity classes IV, II and Ib, in contrast to previous studies, that reported anomalous rotators only in the luminosity class III classic giants. Such a finding of great significance because it allows us to analyze the presence of anomalous rotation at different intervals of mass, since the luminosity classes considered here cover a mass range between 0.80 and 20MJ, approximately. In the present survey we discovered 1 subgiant, 9 giants, 2 bright giants and 5 Ib supergiants, in spectral regions G and K, with values of v sin i ≥ 10kms−1 and single behavior. This amount of 17 stars corresponds to a frequency of 0.8% of G and K single evolved stars with anomalous rotation in the mentioned classes of luminosities, listed at the Bright Star Catalog, which is complete to visual magnitude 6.3. Given these new findings, based on a stellar sample complete in visual magnitude, as that of the Bright Star Catalog, we conducted a comparative statistical analysis using the Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, from where we conclude that the distributions of rotational velocity, v sin i, for single evolved stars with anomalous rotation in luminosity classes III and II, are similar to the distributions of v sin i for spectroscopic binary systems with evolved components with the same spectral type and luminosity class. This vii result indicates that the process of coalescence between stars of a binary system might be a possible mechanism to explain the observed abnormal rotation in the referred abnormal rotators, at least among the giants and bright giants, where the rotation in excess would be associated with the transfer of angular momentum for the star resulting from the merger. Another important result of this Thesis concerns the behavior of the infrared emission in most of the stars with anomalous rotation here studied, where 14 stars of the sample tend to have an excess in IR compared with single stars with low rotation, within of their luminosity class. This property represents an additional link in the search for the physical mechanisms responsible for the abnormal observed rotation, since recent theoretical studies show that the accretion of objects of sub-stellar mass, such as brown dwarfs and giant planets, by the hosting star, can significantly raise its rotation, producing also a circumstellar dust disk. This last result seems to point in that direction, since it is not expected that dust disks occurring during the stage of star formation can survive until the stages of subgiants, giants and supergiants Ib. In summary, in this Thesis, besides the discovery of single G and K evolved stars of luminosity classes IV, II and Ib with anomalously high rotation compared to what is predicted by stellar evolution theory, we also present the frequency of these abnormal rotators in a stellar sample complete to visual magnitude 6.3. We also present solid evidence that coalescence processes in stellar binary systems and processes of accretion of brown dwarfs star or giant planets, by the hosting stars, can act as mechanisms responsible for the puzzling phenomenon of anomalous rotation in single evolved stars.

Critério de correntropia no treinamento de redes fuzzy wavelet neural networks para identificação de sistemas dinâmicos não lineares

The great interest in nonlinear system identification is mainly due to the fact that a large amount of real systems are complex and need to have their nonlinearities considered so that their models can be successfully used in applications of control, prediction, inference, among others. This work evaluates the application of Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Networks (FWNN) to identify nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to noise and outliers. Generally, these elements cause negative effects on the identification procedure, resulting in erroneous interpretations regarding the dynamical behavior of the system. The FWNN combines in a single structure the ability to deal with uncertainties of fuzzy logic, the multiresolution characteristics of wavelet theory and learning and generalization abilities of the artificial neural networks. Usually, the learning procedure of these neural networks is realized by a gradient based method, which uses the mean squared error as its cost function. This work proposes the replacement of this traditional function by an Information Theoretic Learning similarity measure, called correntropy. With the use of this similarity measure, higher order statistics can be considered during the FWNN training process. For this reason, this measure is more suitable for non-Gaussian error distributions and makes the training less sensitive to the presence of outliers. In order to evaluate this replacement, FWNN models are obtained in two identification case studies: a real nonlinear system, consisting of a multisection tank, and a simulated system based on a model of the human knee joint. The results demonstrate that the application of correntropy as the error backpropagation algorithm cost function makes the identification procedure using FWNN models more robust to outliers. However, this is only achieved if the gaussian kernel width of correntropy is properly adjusted.

Processo de implantação de um sistema integrado de gestão em uma organização pública à luz da teoria da hospitalidade :um estudo de caso

In the present time, public organizations are employing more and more solutions that uses information technology in order to ofer more transparency and better services for all citizens. Integrated Systems are IT which carry in their kernel features of integration and the use of a unique database. These systems bring several benefits and face some obstacles that make their adoption difficult. The conversion to a integrated system may take years and, thus, the study of the adoption of this IT in public sector organizations become very stimulant due to some peculiarities of this sector and the features of this technology. First of all, information about the particular integrated system in study and about its process of conversion are offered. Then, the researcher designs the configuration of the conversion process aim of this study the agents envolved and the moments and the tools used to support the process in order to elaborate the methodology of the conversion process understood as the set of procedures and tools used during all the conversion process. After this, the researcher points out, together with all the members of the conversion team, the negative and positive factors during the project. Finally, these factors were analysed through the Hospitality Theory lens which, in the researcher opinion, was very useful to understand the elements, events and moments that interfered in the project. The results consolidated empirically the Hospitality Theory presumptions, showing yet a limitation of this theory in the case in study