Crescimento econômico e restrição externa da economia brasileira: uma análise do padrão das exportações em relação ao BRIC e do Sistema de Inovação do Brasil (1980-2012)

This Master s Thesis aims to use the theoretical models of growth with restricted balance of payments, specifically Kaldor (1970) and Thirlwall (1979) models, to analyze the behavior and the pattern of specialization of Brazilian exports and imports in the last years. It is observed that, in some periods, the pattern of specialization has contributed in restricting long-term growth of the Brazilian economy. It has been hypothesized that overall this is due to lack of structural transformation policies. To achieve this goal, it analyzed the performance of Brazilian exports and imports disaggregating them according to their technological content. The basis for comparison was a group of countries to which Brazil is inserted in, the BRIC. In this regard, the work is a comparative analysis by using descriptive statistics. It is concluded that the low rate of GDP growth experienced by Brazil since the 1980s can be explained in part by the decoupling of the Brazilian National Innovation System (NIS) and the Brazilian productive structure. This would be reducing the income elasticity of exports and raising imports, causing a pattern of specialization intensive primary commodities and labor and low-skill labor

Avaliação da capacidade para o trabalho do servidor público: um estudo de caso em uma instituição federal de ensino superior

The ability to work, considered as resulting from a dynamic process between the individual resources in relation to their work, influenced from various factors such as sociodemographic, lifestyle, aging process and requirements of work. Aiming analyze the ability to work in a population of public servants, the study analyzed 132 public servants volunteers of the infrastructure sector, in a Federal Institution of Higher Education of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast, Brazil. Data were collected through a questionnaire called the Index of Capacity for Work - ICT. The variable analysis was done by using descriptive statistics of means, standard deviations, median minimum and maximum values of the scores of quantitative variables. The joint analysis of the variables was performed by multiple linear regression. The server had low capacity to work 11 (8.33%), moderate 31 (23.48%), good 54 (40.91), and Great 28 (21.21). Multiple regression analysis, adjusted for age, sex, education, age started to work, length of service, current capacity and full of disease, showed that best explained the variation of the CTI were age, current capacity and full of disease. The survey showed that 75% of the servers showed ICT below 43, so capacity low, moderate or good and only 25% of respondents had the CTI servers over 43 points, so great capacity for work. According to the recommendations of FIOH - Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, for servers that have these scores be implemented whose objective is to restore the ability to work which is low, improving the capacity for moderate work, support the capacity for the good work and maintain the ability to work great. Therefore, we recommend that the ICT is implemented in other units of the IFES survey in the perspective of achieving a real situation of all its servers, enabling the implementation of these measures as necessary to promote recovery and health of its employees.

Gestão de satisfação e fidelidade do cliente na hotelaria :um estudo sobre os fatores que influenciam a satisfação e a fidelidade do turista internacional no Brasil

The objective of this thesis was studying the factors which contribute to customer s satisfaction and loyalty, focusing the Norwegian model of satisfaction and loyalty of the consumer, applied in the sector of hotel services in Natal/RN, Brazil. The theoretical research was led through the concepts of service quality, customer satisfaction and loyalty, models of quality management systems, national index of customer s satisfaction and methods which evaluate the customer s satisfaction. The field research was carried through from December 1st of 2004 to 24 st, among 381 international tourists who had been housed in the hotels of Natal. The analyses of the data had been made through the descriptive statistics and analysis of multiple regression. The results had evidenced that the main precedents variables of satisfaction had been: hotel s room, staff friendliness, hotel restaurant food and price paid; these are factors which explained, in 56,0% the variation of satisfaction with hotels. In relation to the constructs which had influenced the tourist s loyalty, were founds: tourist s satisfaction, hotel image and affective commitment, which had explained 53.0% of the data variability. The complaint management resulted as a basic factor for the tourist s satisfaction and loyalty

Estratégias de avaliação de desempenho dos propagandistas de medicamentos utilizados pela indústria farmacêutica no nordeste do Brasil

A Indústria Farmacêutica é uma das mais competitivas indústrias do mundo contemporâneo, e um dos seus principais desafios está na comercialização de seus medicamentos, que na sua maioria depende da prescrição médica. O objetivo deste estudo é identificar as estratégias de avaliação de desempenho utilizadas pela Indústria Farmacêutica de origem multinacional que atua no nordeste Brasileiro e o papel dos seus gerentes, para avaliar os propagandistas vendedores de medicamentos. Para tanto, buscouse reunir elementos para uma abordagem satisfatória que contemple a complexidade da temática pesquisada: Avaliação de Desempenho, Estratégias da Indústria Farmacêutica, Propaganda Médica e Competências dos Propagandistas de Medicamentos. A temática justifica-se em razão da importância estratégica dos propagandistas de medicamentos para a indústria farmacêutica, que é uma das indústrias que mais investe em pesquisa na atualidade, e contribui para melhorar a qualidade de vida e a saúde humana. A metodologia é caracterizada como um survey, de natureza quali-quantitativa. O objeto de estudo é composto pelas empresas farmacêuticas multinacionais de origem Americanas, Europeias e Asiáticas, associadas à INTERFARMA que atuam no Nordeste do Brasil. A coleta de dados foi realizada através de um questionário fechado (instrumento de pesquisa), composto por 5 perguntas fechadas que abordam a temática central dessa dissertação, 27 afirmativas para medir a concordância(escala likert) e 1 tabela contendo 46 competências, aplicado junto a gerentes da indústria farmacêutica. A análise dos dados foi feita por meio das técnicas de estatística descritiva e uma análise quantitativa para estabelecer o Ranking Médio (RM) para a parte do questionário que utilizou escala tipo Likert de 5 pontos para mensurar o grau de concordância dos respondestes. Através dos resultados desta pesquisa foi possível identificar as estratégias de avaliação de desempenho, utilizadas pelas empresas farmacêuticas, que atuam no Nordeste do Brasil, na gestão dos propagandistas vendedores de medicamentos, e identificar as competências essenciais dos propagandistas de medicamentos, na percepção dos gestores. Os resultados demonstraram que a Indústria Farmacêutica desenvolve e utiliza várias estratégias para medir e avaliar o desempenho dos propagandistas de medicamentos no Brasil, assim como em outros países, e que na percepção dos gerentes da Indústria Farmacêutica existem competências consideradas essenciais ao bom desempenho profissional dos propagandistas de medicamentos da indústria farmacêutica, contribuindo de para avanço do conhecimento deste tema

Gestão de resíduos sólidos: um estudo da conscientização ambiental em uma cidade do Brasil

The present study inserts on the international environmental thematic, approaching the integrated management of solid waste and the participation of the social actors in the search of the sustainable development. The awareness in combining it still describes a Selective Collection Program SCP of solid waste, in partnership with the municipal public power, in the development of joint actions that result in better alternatives of waste management in the urban centers, providing better life quality for the population and conservation of the environment. The aim of this research is to study problematic of the management of solid waste under the point of view of the environmental awareness and the participation of the population in a city of Brazil. In this matter, the target of the work is focusing on the strategy of solid waste management, through the attitudes and the respondents behaviors to aid in the making decision of the public manager related to the implantation of a selective collection program in Natal/RN. The methodology used in this work constitutes in the application of a questionnaire with scales of the type Likert being constituted of variables that compose the aspects of attitudes and of behaviors, besides a social-demographic scale. For analysis statistics is used the Pearson s Chi-Square Method in order to verify the dependence of the associations between the social-demographic variables and the attitude and the behavior ones. The results appear for a larger participation in a SCP, since this provides a better quality of life of the population (28,3 %), followed for offering a financial advantage (27,3%). Other results indicate the existence of the variables that exercise influence on the environmental awareness of the population to its demographic aspects

Caracterização estatística de processos sísmicos via Distribuição Generalizada de Pareto. Estudo de caso: João Câmara-RN

The work is to make a brief discussion of methods to estimate the parameters of the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Being addressed the following techniques: Moments (moments), Maximum Likelihood (MLE), Biased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMB), Unbiased Probability Weighted Moments (PWMU), Mean Power Density Divergence (MDPD), Median (MED), Pickands (PICKANDS), Maximum Penalized Likelihood (MPLE), Maximum Goodness-of-fit (MGF) and the Maximum Entropy (POME) technique, the focus of this manuscript. By way of illustration adjustments were made for the Generalized Pareto distribution, for a sequence of earthquakes intraplacas which occurred in the city of João Câmara in the northeastern region of Brazil, which was monitored continuously for two years (1987 and 1988). It was found that the MLE and POME were the most efficient methods, giving them basically mean squared errors. Based on the threshold of 1.5 degrees was estimated the seismic risk for the city, and estimated the level of return to earthquakes of intensity 1.5°, 2.0°, 2.5°, 3.0° and the most intense earthquake never registered in the city, which occurred in November 1986 with magnitude of about 5.2º

Adaptação transcultural para o Português/Brasil do instrumento vulnerability to abuse screening scale (VASS)

Esse trabalho objetivou promover a adaptação transcultural para o Brasil da VASS. Os passos para adaptação transcultural seguirão a proposta de operacionalização alicerçado na apreciação de diferentes tipos de equivalência: a conceitual e de itens, a semântica e a de mensuração. Para alcançar as duas primeiras etapas utilizou-se as técnicas de tradução e retrotradução associada ao procedimento intitulado Painel de Especialistas. Para o pré-teste e verificação de equivalência de mensuração, aplicou-se o questionário com uma população de 30 e 66 idosos, respectivamente. Para as análises dos resultados foi utilizada a estatística descritiva e inferencial, em especial o KR-20, teste T de student, correlação de Pearson e ANOVA univariada, bem como o método kappa de Fleiss para verificação do índice de confiabilidade. Verificou-se que o conceito utilizado para construção do instrumento, bem como seus itens se mostram adequados à investigação do fenômeno. Evidenciou-se boa equivalência semântica entre os itens das retrotraduções e do instrumento original, especialmente quanto aos resultados de T1 R1. Os juízes optaram pelo uso de 11 itens de T1 à versão-síntese. A equivalência operacional mostrou-se satisfatória. Em geral, os resultados apresentados mostraram-se aceitáveis. Quanto à etapa da equivalência de mensuração, verificou-se que a idade dos participantes variou entre 60 a 84 anos, prevalecendo respondentes idosas (n = 38), representando 57,6% da amostra estudada. O valor do KR-20 para o escore geral do instrumento foi de 0,688 (IC95%: 0,670). Os valores encontrados para as quatro dimensões propostas pelos autores do estudo inicial do instrumento foram 0,528, 0,289, 0,552 e 0,303, respectivamente. Apenas os valores de consistência interna das subescalas Vulnerabilidade e Coerção mostraram-se aproximados aos encontrados no estudo original, a saber, 0,550 e 0,390, respectivamente. Verificou-se que com a retirada dos itens nº 04, nº 06 e nº 10, houve aumento do índice de consistência interna da escala total. Já quanto aos valores da consistência interna das subescalas, percebeu-se que apenas com a retirada dos itens nº 09, referente à escala que dimensiona o Desânimo, e nº 12, item da subescala Coerção, é que houve acréscimo nesses valores. Destaca-se que esses são resultados preliminares, uma vez que após a verificação da adequabilidade e de padrões psicométricos iniciais acerca do uso do instrumento para a população idosa, ainda há de se dar continuidade à etapa concernente à verificação de propriedades psicométricas robustas do instrumento, que indiquem, por exemplo, evidências de fidedignidade em situação de teste-reteste, validade de constructo e de critério, se possível e aplicável. A principal limitação do estudo é a falta de um instrumento padrão-ouro para testar a fidedignidade, sensibilidade e especificidade do instrumento em questão. Apesar desta limitação, a adaptação transcultural e a verificação de propriedades psicométricas preliminares do instrumento de uma medida de autorrelato que afere indicativo de violência doméstica contra o idoso tem sua relevância e foi satisfatória

Indicador de vulnerabilidade agropecuária a extremos climáticos para o nordeste do Brasil

The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried (MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology, these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among moderate and mean

Modelos de dispersão para extremos de precipitação. Estudo de caso: o nordeste do Brasil

In this thesis used four different methods in order to diagnose the precipitation extremes on Northeastern Brazil (NEB): Generalized Linear Model s via logistic regression and Poisson, extreme value theory analysis via generalized extre me value (GEV) and generalized Pareto (GPD) distributions and Vectorial Generalized Linea r Models via GEV (MVLG GEV). The logistic regression and Poisson models were used to identify the interactions between the precipitation extremes and other variables based on the odds ratios and relative risks. It was found that the outgoing longwave radiation was the indicator variable for the occurrence of extreme precipitation on eastern, northern and semi arid NEB, and the relative humidity was verified on southern NEB. The GEV and GPD distribut ions (based on the 95th percentile) showed that the location and scale parameters were presented the maximum on the eastern and northern coast NEB, the GEV verified a maximum core on western of Pernambuco influenced by weather systems and topography. The GEV and GPD shape parameter, for most regions the data fitted by Weibull negative an d Beta distributions (ξ < 0) , respectively. The levels and return periods of GEV (GPD) on north ern Maranhão (centerrn of Bahia) may occur at least an extreme precipitation event excee ding over of 160.9 mm /day (192.3 mm / day) on next 30 years. The MVLG GEV model found tha t the zonal and meridional wind components, evaporation and Atlantic and Pacific se a surface temperature boost the precipitation extremes. The GEV parameters show the following results: a) location ( ), the highest value was 88.26 ± 6.42 mm on northern Maran hão; b) scale ( σ ), most regions showed positive values, except on southern of Maranhão; an d c) shape ( ξ ), most of the selected regions were adjusted by the Weibull negative distr ibution ( ξ < 0 ). The southern Maranhão and southern Bahia have greater accuracy. The level period, it was estimated that the centern of Bahia may occur at least an extreme precipitatio n event equal to or exceeding over 571.2 mm/day on next 30 years.

Classes sociais e eleições presidenciais no Brasil contemporâneo (2002-2010)

This work aims to analyze, in terms of class, the social composition of the constituency of the presidential candidates of the Workers Party in 2002, 2006 and 2010 elections. Such research object is constructed from a preliminary critical debate with recent Brazilian electoral studies, especially the literature on the infl uence of social programs on voting and Singer’s formulations about the lulismo phenomenon. Incorporating advances and pointing out gaps in such research efforts, is formulated a roadmap for empirical research constituted of three key elements - the measure ment of the dimensions of class structure in Brazilian capitalism; the observation of material interests related to the constituents locations of such structure; the development of measures of association between the insertion in class groupings and indivi dual voting behavior. Based on the neo - Marxist approach of class analysis, especially as formulated by Wright, it is made an adaptation of the typology formulated by such approach (mainly developed by Santos to the Brazilian case) to the data available fro m databases of censuses of 2000 and 2010. This theoretical construct reveals that during the period considered for the analysis, the structure of class - relations in Brazil became more proletarized and consequently had a decrease of the dimensions of the de stitute class locations. In addition, it was found, in relation to the objective class interests, widespread increments of economic welfare that allowed advances in relation to the material conditions of the proletariat, without, however, incurring losses to the privileged class positions. Such changes in the structural sphere focused in various ways on the political arena. Based on an adaptation to electoral analysis of the concept of "class formation", also formulated by Wright, associated with the use of techniques of ecological inference (especially those proposed by King and associates), it was possible to draw up an overview of class voting in period studied. As main results, three general patterns of individual voting behavior, related to each of the three analyzed class groupings were identified - a contraposition against PT candidates, by voters in privileged class locations; the adhesion, recurring throughout the study period, of workers to Lula and Dilma Rousseff; a favorable electoral shift unde rtaken by economically deprived voters in favor of those candidatures in the 2006 election.

O trabalho em equipe na atenção primária à saúde: situação de Portugal e do Brasil

Introdução: Na Atenção Primária à Saúde, nos contextos internacional e nacional, o trabalho em equipe tem sido reconhecido como estratégia decisiva para a organização de processos que visam à integralidade do cuidado, além de possibilitar melhorias na satisfação dos usuários com os serviços de saúde. Neste sentido, o objetivo, deste estudo, é analisar o trabalho em equipe na Atenção Primária à Saúde. Método: Trata-se de uma pesquisa em banco de dados secundários. Realizou-se três estudos: a) O trabalho em equipe na Atenção Primária à Saúde, em Portugal, pesquisa avaliativa, de natureza qualitativa, tipo estudo de caso descritivo, que representou um recorte dos resultados derivados da pesquisa integrada ao projeto “Implantação das Unidades de Saúde Familiar em Portugal”, que teve como procedimentos entrevistas semiestruturadas, roteiro de coleta de informações (check list) e análise documental. Foi realizada a estratégia de triangulação dos dados com análise de conteúdo; b) trabalho em equipe, acesso e qualidade na Atenção Primária à Saúde, no Brasil, estudo transversal, de abordagem quantitativa, realizado a partir dos dados obtidos da “Pesquisa de Avaliação Externa do Programa de Melhoria do Acesso e da Qualidade da Atenção Básica”, no Brasil, em 2013. Amostra composta de 17202 profissionais e 65391 usuários. Utilizou-se entrevista estruturada, com análise estatística realizada pelas frequências absolutas e relativas das variáveis através do programa Statistical Package for Social Sciences. c) satisfação dos usuários com o trabalho em equipe na Atenção Primária à Saúde, no Brasil, estudo transversal, de abordagem quantitativa, realizado a partir dos dados obtidos da “Pesquisa de Avaliação Externa do Programa de Melhoria do Acesso e da Qualidade da Atenção Básica”, no Brasil, em 2013. Amostra composta de 65391 usuários. Realizou-se análise estatística das frequências absolutas e relativas das variáveis através do programa Statistical Package for Social Sciences. Utilizou-se, ainda, o Teste X2 , com nível de significância de 5%; análise de regressão logística múltipla. O modelo final foi ajustado pelo teste de Hosmer/Lemeshow, o qual indicou um ajuste de 66%. Resultados: Sobre o trabalho em equipe na Atenção Primária à Saúde, em Portugal, destacou-se a formação das equipes de forma voluntária, por meio de afinidades pessoais, a existência de “carteira básica de serviços”, juntamente com x intervenções de vigilância, promoção da saúde e prevenção de doença, cuidados em situação de doença aguda, acompanhamento clínico de doença crônica e de patologia múltipla, cuidados domiciliares, interligação e colaboração em rede com outros serviços (cuidados hospitalares), sistemas informatizados nas unidades de saúde. Os dados revelaram dificuldades quanto ao atendimento domiciliar. No Brasil, foi destaque o processo de trabalho, com avanços relacionados a realização de planejamento e programação das ações e o apoio da gestão. Existência de território definido e de prontuários familiares. É destaque a agenda compartilhada e pactuada entre os profissionais. As equipes realizam acolhimento e reuniões, cujos temas, discutidos, giram em torno do processo de trabalho e planejamento. Os desafios, enfrentados, estão relacionados ao agendamento dos usuários; ao número de pessoas sob a responsabilidade das equipes; à existência de população descoberta nas áreas adscritas à Unidade de Saúde; à incipiência na ação intersetorial e ao pouco envolvimento da comunidade pelas equipes. Quanto aos fatores associados à satisfação do usuário foi marcante: a faixa etária; a escolaridade; a raça; se a falta de material prejudica o atendimento e se a equipe consegue marcar consulta para outros profissionais. Conclusões: Constatou-se o trabalho em equipe como elemento central no processo de mudança na Atenção Primária à Saúde, tanto no contexto de Portugal quanto no do Brasil, o qual ampliou o acesso e a qualidade na oferta de serviços de saúde e obteve, ainda, o reconhecimento social, mesmo que, em ambas as realidades, não tenha avançado na coordenação do cuidado e no estímulo à participação social. Os fatores, associados com a satisfação do usuário, estão relacionados diretamente ao cuidado prestado e refletem a expectativa, por parte do usuário, de resolução concreta de suas necessidades.

Tendências e projeções da mortalidade pelos cânceres específicos ao gênero no Brasil

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES

Mortalidade segundo sua causa de morte e seus determinantes: uma análise para as capitais brasileiras e municípios do nordeste do Brasil, 2000 e 2010

This dissertation considered the development of two papers, both related to mortality in Brazil. In the first article, "The context of mortality according to the three broad groups of causes of death in Brazilian capitals, 2000 and 2010", the objective was to analyze the mortality rate according to the three major groups of causes of death in Brazilian capitals. In the second article, "Typology and characteristics of mortality from external causes in the municipalities in the Northeast of Brazil, 2000 and 2010", it was built up a typology for the Northeastern municipalities taking into account information on mortality from external causes and a set of indicators related to socioeconomic, demographic, and infrastructure aspects of such municipalities, both articles for the years 2000 and 2010. Thus, we used data from the Mortality Information System of the Ministry of Health. Furthermore, it was used information from the Demographic Census for those years. The variables relating to socioeconomic and demographic conditions used in this study were those available on the home page of the United Nations Program for Development. The variables relating to socioeconomic and demographic conditions used in this study were those available on the home page of the United Nations Program for Development. Was used in Article 1 the pro-rata distribution method to accomplish the redistribution of ill-defined causes. Moreover, made use of the technique of cluster analysis with the aim of grouping the capital that had proportions of deaths from ill-defined causes similar to each other. Already in Section 2, we used the technique of Empirical Bayesian estimation; spatial statistics technique; and finally, the Grade of Membership method to find types of municipalities from information on mortality from external causes associated with socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure variables. As the main results, it stands out in Article 1, in relation to data quality, we observed the formation of four groups of similar capital between themselves, as the proportion of illdefined causes. Regarding the behavior of mortality, according to the three major groups of causes of death, it was noted both for 2000 and for 2010 the prevalence of deaths from noncommunicable diseases for both sexes, although the reduction was identified rates in some of the capitals. Communicable diseases stood out as the second cause of death among women. Also, we found that deaths due to external causes are responsible for the second cause of death among men, as well as presenting an increase among women. As for the Article 2, stands out, in general, not just an extension of mortality from external causes in the municipalities, as well as an enlargement of the configurator stain existence of external cause deaths for the whole area of Northeast. Regarding the typology of municipalities, three vi extreme profiles were buit: the profile 1, which comprises municipalities with high rates of mortality from external causes and the best social indicators; the profile 2, that was composed of municipalities that are characterized by having low mortality rates from external causes and the lowest social indicators; and the profile 3, that brings together municipalities with intermediate mortality rates and median values considered in relation to social indicators. Although we have not seen changes in the characteristics of the profiles, we observed an increase in the proportion of municipalities that belong to the extreme profile 3, taking into account the mixed profiles.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Mortalidade em idosos longevos e "mais jovens" no Brasil

The aim of the present study was to trace the mortality profile of the elderly in Brazil using two neighboring age groups: 60 to 69 years (young-old) and 80 years or more (oldest-old). To do this, we sought to characterize the trend and distinctions of different mortality profiles, as well as the quality of the data and associations with socioeconomic and sanitary conditions in the micro-regions of Brazil. Data was collected from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Based on these data, the coefficients of mortality were calculated for the chapters of the International Disease Classification (ICD-10). A polynomial regression model was used to ascertain the trend of the main chapters. Non-hierarchical cluster analysis (K-Means) was used to obtain the profiles for different Brazilian micro-regions. Factorial analysis of the contextual variables was used to obtain the socio-economic and sanitary deprivation indices (IPSS). The trend of the CMId and of the ratio of its values in the two age groups confirmed a decrease in most of the indicators, particularly for badly-defined causes among the oldest-old. Among the young-old, the following profiles emerged: the Development Profile; the Modernity Profile; the Epidemiological Paradox Profile and the Ignorance Profile. Among the oldest-old, the latter three profiles were confirmed, in addition to the Low Mortality Rates Profile. When comparing the mean IPSS values in global terms, all of the groups were different in both of the age groups. The Ignorance Profile was compared with the other profiles using orthogonal contrasts. This profile differed from all of the others in isolation and in clusters. However, the mean IPSS was similar for the Low Mortality Rates Profile among the oldest-old. Furthermore, associations were found between the data quality indicators, the CMId for badly-defined causes, the general coefficient of mortality for each age group (CGMId) and the IPSS of the micro-regions. The worst rates were recorded in areas with the greatest socioeconomic and sanitary deprivation. The findings of the present study show that, despite the decrease in the mortality coefficients, there are notable differences in the profiles related to contextual conditions, including regional differences in data quality. These differences increase the vulnerability of the age groups studied and the health iniquities that are already present.