Chess Endgames and Neural Networks

The existence of endgame databases challenges us to extract higher-grade information and knowledge from their basic data content. Chess players, for example, would like simple and usable endgame theories if such holy grail exists: endgame experts would like to provide such insights and be inspired by computers to do so. Here, we investigate the use of artificial neural networks (NNs) to mine these databases and we report on a first use of NNs on KPK. The results encourage us to suggest further work on chess applications of neural networks and other data-mining techniques.

Understanding distributions of chess performances

This paper presents evidence for several features of the population of chess players, and the distribution of their performances measured in terms of Elo ratings and by computer analysis of moves. Evidence that ratings have remained stable since the inception of the Elo system in the 1970’s is given in several forms: by showing that the population of strong players fits a simple logistic-curve model without inflation, by plotting players’ average error against the FIDE category of tournaments over time, and by skill parameters from a model that employs computer analysis keeping a nearly constant relation to Elo rating across that time. The distribution of the model’s Intrinsic Performance Ratings can hence be used to compare populations that have limited interaction, such as between players in a national chess federation and FIDE, and ascertain relative drift in their respective rating systems.

A comparative review of skill assessment: performance, prediction and profiling

The assessment of chess players is an increasingly attractive opportunity and an unfortunate necessity. The chess community needs to limit potential reputational damage by inhibiting cheating and unjustified accusations of cheating: there has been a recent rise in both. A number of counter-intuitive discoveries have been made by benchmarking the intrinsic merit of players’ moves: these call for further investigation. Is Capablanca actually, objectively the most accurate World Champion? Has ELO rating inflation not taken place? Stimulated by FIDE/ACP, we revisit the fundamentals of the subject to advance a framework suitable for improved standards of computational experiment and more precise results. Other domains look to chess as the demonstrator of good practice, including the rating of professionals making high-value decisions under pressure, personnel evaluation by Multichoice Assessment and the organization of crowd-sourcing in citizen science projects. The ‘3P’ themes of performance, prediction and profiling pervade all these domains.

Performance and prediction: Bayesian modelling of fallible choice in chess

Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

Intrinsic chess rating

This paper develops and tests formulas for representing playing strength at chess by the quality of moves played, rather than by the results of games. Intrinsic quality is estimated via evaluations given by computer chess programs run to high depth, ideally so that their playing strength is sufficiently far ahead of the best human players as to be a `relatively omniscient' guide. Several formulas, each having intrinsic skill parameters s for `sensitivity' and c for `consistency', are argued theoretically and tested by regression on large sets of tournament games played by humans of varying strength as measured by the internationally standard Elo rating system. This establishes a correspondence between Elo rating and the parameters. A smooth correspondence is shown between statistical results and the century points on the Elo scale, and ratings are shown to have stayed quite constant over time. That is, there has been little or no `rating inflation'. The theory and empirical results are transferable to other rational-choice settings in which the alternatives have well-defined utilities, but in which complexity and bounded information constrain the perception of the utility values.

Skill Rating by Bayesian Inference

Systems Engineering often involves computer modelling the behaviour of proposed systems and their components. Where a component is human, fallibility must be modelled by a stochastic agent. The identification of a model of decision-making over quantifiable options is investigated using the game-domain of Chess. Bayesian methods are used to infer the distribution of players’ skill levels from the moves they play rather than from their competitive results. The approach is used on large sets of games by players across a broad FIDE Elo range, and is in principle applicable to any scenario where high-value decisions are being made under pressure.

6-man chess and zugzwangs

With 6-man Chess essentially solved, the available 6-man Endgame Tables (EGTs) have been scanned for zugzwang positions where, unusually, having the move is a disadvantage. Review statistics together with some highlights and positions are provided here: the complete information is available on the ICGA website. An outcome of the review is the observation that the definition of zugzwang should be revisited, if only because the presence of en passant capture moves gives rise to three new, asymmetric types of zugzwang.

6-man chess solved

Eugene Nalimov has completed the computation of a set of endgame tables for 6-man chess, and independently, Marc Bourzutschky has completed tables for 3-3 chess and for 4-2 chess where Black is not just ‘KP’. The ICGA salutes both achievements and looks ahead.

Chess endgames: 6-man data and strategy

While Nalimov’s endgame tables for Western Chess are the most used today, their Depth-to-Mate metric is not the most efficient or effective in use. The authors have developed and used new programs to create tables to alternative metrics and recommend better strategies for endgame play.

Chess endgames: data and strategy

While Nalimov’s endgame tables for Western Chess are the most used today, their Depth-to-Mate metric is not the only one and not the most effective in use. The authors have developed and used new programs to create tables to alternative metrics and recommend better strategies for endgame play.

Space-efficient Indexing of Chess Endgame Tables

Chess endgame tables should provide efficiently the value and depth of any required position during play. The indexing of an endgame’s positions is crucial to meeting this objective. This paper updates Heinz’ previous review of approaches to indexing and describes the latest approach by the first and third authors. Heinz’ and Nalimov’s endgame tables (EGTs) encompass the en passant rule and have the most compact index schemes to date. Nalimov’s EGTs, to the Distance-to-Mate (DTM) metric, require only 30.6 × 10^9 elements in total for all the 3-to-5-man endgames and are individually more compact than previous tables. His new index scheme has proved itself while generating the tables and in the 1999 World Computer Chess Championship where many of the top programs used the new suite of EGTs.

Space-efficient indexing of endgame tables for chess

Chess endgame tables should provide efficiently the value and depth of any required position during play. The indexing of an endgame’s positions is crucial to meeting this objective. This paper updates Heinz’ previous review of approaches to indexing and describes the latest approach by the first and third authors. Heinz’ and Nalimov’s endgame tables (EGTs) encompass the en passant rule and have the most compact index schemes to date. Nalimov’s EGTs, to the Distance-to-Mate (DTM) metric, require only 30.6 × 109 elements in total for all the 3-to-5-man endgames and are individually more compact than previous tables. His new index scheme has proved itself while generating the tables and in the 1999 World Computer Chess Championship where many of the top programs used the new suite of EGTs.

Strategies for Constrained Optimisation

The latest 6-man chess endgame results confirm that there are many deep forced mates beyond the 50-move rule. Players with potential wins near this limit naturally want to avoid a claim for a draw: optimal play to current metrics does not guarantee feasible wins or maximise the chances of winning against fallible opposition. A new metric and further strategies are defined which support players’ aspirations and improve their prospects of securing wins in the context of a k-move rule.

Deepest Chess Win Revisited

An examination of the deepest win in KRNKNN in the context of Ken Thompson's results.