Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk

Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007).Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i) a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii) importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii) the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.

Objetivación de la responsabilidad disciplinaria de los jefes y representantes legales de las Entidades estatales en el marco de la delegación en materia contractual pública

La responsabilidad disciplinaria no se puede ser entendida como la existencia de dolo o culpa en la actuación del funcionario público sino como el juicio de exigibilidad en el cual el juez disciplinario debe establecer si el deber funcional era exigible en las específicas circunstancias del caso, dependiendo de los requisitos necesarios para el ejercicio del cargo de representante legal de una Entidad estatal y dados los conocimientos requeridos para la ejecución del deber funcional.

Programa de ejercicio físico dirigido a trabajadores del Sena seccional centro de gestión comercial, mercadeo y teleinformática

Las capacidades funcionales especialmente las físicas muestran una tendencia a la decadencia, justamente después de los 30 años, y se hacen mas evidentes después de los 45, estos eventos tienden a empeorar, si la demanda física es mayor después de esta edad y la intensidad del trabajo es alta. Por otro lado la percepción de los trabajadores apunta a que su mayor nivel de rendimiento se encuentra antes de los cincuenta años y que pocos años después su eficacia disminuye aproximadamente entre 15 y 25%. De tal manera que desde el punto de vista de la salud ocupacional el envejecimiento de los obreros se produce alrededor de los 45 a 50 años, razón por la cual se afirma que antes de esta edad es que se deben realizar acciones preventivas para disminuir los efectos de la edad y el estrés laboral. Teniendo en cuenta lo anterior se hace necesario generar la inquietud tanto en los trabajadores como en la institución a la cual ellos pertenecen acerca de la importancia de la planeación y aplicación de un programa de ejercicio dirigido a los empleados de esta sede y que esté vinculado directamente con el área de salud ocupacional de la misma, logrando la cooperación de los individuos y la institución con el fin de generar un ambiente de participación bidireccional, que permita llevar a cabo dicho programa dentro de la jornada laboral, generando beneficios a cada uno de los sectores aquí inmersos.

Freedom of contract and the coexistence of trademark registrations in Colombia

In trademark systems such as the Andean Community, a state authority verifiesthat the marks are distinctive, lawful and do not affect third parties, and after that,given their ownership. In this context, particular interest has sparked the possibilityof individuals by agreements or statements of co-existence, are who ensure that theirsigns meet the conditions for simultaneous registrations.Such agreements for the coexistence of marks are problematic if one thinks thatthe holders of interests that would be available also seem to matter to consumers,competitors and the market. Therefore, define the scope of contractual freedom inthe field of trademark law, whose rules are considered imperative, acquire practicaland theoretical importance because its realization i) recognizes the risks that maybe relevant to evaluating trade agreements and ii) contributes to debates on the roleof private autonomy in areas reserved for non-derogable norms. Thus, this researchputs the declarations of consent for the coexistence of registrations in Colombia, ina larger scope of the limits of freedom of contract.

Indirect expropriation in concession contract

 The work aims to demonstrate that an indirect expropriation of rights occurs when mining concession agreements are made for subsoil exploitation. The article looks at examples such as when administrative divesture for public utilities or for social interest is decreed to implement projects or environmental works; when any regulation or administrative action is taken determining protected areas or environment control of type; and when environmental control plans are implemented. The indirect expropriation occurs because a conflict exists between general interests and equality principles of the burdens, the contractual right of adherence to agreed upon provisions and the legality of prior legal regulations for the carrying out of such expropriation. 

Testing for Hidden Information and Action in Automobile Insurance Market

I test the presence of hidden information and action in the automobile insurance market using a data set from several Colombian insurers. To identify the presence of hidden information I find a common knowledge variable providing information on policyholder s risk type which is related to both experienced risk and insurance demand and that was excluded from the pricing mechanism. Such unused variable is the record of policyholder s traffic offenses. I find evidence of adverse selection in six of the nine insurance companies for which the test is performed. From the point of view of hidden action I develop a dynamic model of effort in accident prevention given an insurance contract with bonus experience rating scheme and I show that individual accident probability decreases with previous accidents. This result brings a testable implication for the empirical identification of hidden action and based on that result I estimate an econometric model of the time spans between the purchase of the insurance and the first claim, between the first claim and the second one, and so on. I find strong evidence on the existence of unobserved heterogeneity that deceives the testable implication. Once the unobserved heterogeneity is controlled, I find conclusive statistical grounds supporting the presence of moral hazard in the Colombian insurance market.

Analysis of the employee’s labor agreement suspension in Colombia and some legislation references

Considering that the employment contract suspension responds to labor stability,one of the most important principles of labor law is important to study it because itsprincipal purpose is to maintain the link between de employer and the employeedespite the presence of adversity or other situations that would break up the relationshipin other fields. However, at the occurrence of any of the grounds of suspensionmay be presented some questions or voids that it will try to be answer in this paper.Consequently we shall refer first to the definition, purpose and characteristics of thesuspension. Subsequently, will be analyzed in detail every single ground of contractsuspension in Colombia. Then, will be studied the effects of the suspension andwe will refer to the resumption of work, and conclude with the comparative analysisof the figure in some Hispanic countries (Mexico, Paraguay and Spain).

Equilibrium Principle in Colombian Public Contracting

Public contracting in Colombia is conflicting and inefficient. It frequently leads to damage to State property. The Colombian legal system cannot assure efficient and transparent public contracting. The cause is the institutional environment characterized by high transaction costs. Colombian law worsens the process by recognizing the principle of economic equilibrium in public contracts. This principle increasese contract incompleteness and renders impossible the use of economic incentives to control the opportunism of the economic agents. The authors present the hypothesis that the economic equilibrium principle increases the conflictive nature of public contracting. They test the hypothesis empirically. The first section of the paper presents a summary of the literature on transaction costs economics, as well as the legal literature on the historical origin and the content of the economic equilibrium principle. The second section describes the methodology of the empirical study. The third section shows the empirical evidence of the effects that the economic equilibrium principle exerts over the public contracting. The last section presents the conclusions.

The impact of broadband quality standards on internet services market structure in Colombia

This paper develops a structural model which allows estimating the impact of regulatory decisions looking for the setting of download-speed standards on market structure and performance. We characterize a setting under which quality standards improve both service quality and availability. As to quality, we evaluate the impact of quality standards on the performance of local demand from a detailed database of broadband internet subscribers, discriminated by the main attributes of an internet subscription contract as location, supplier, monthly-fee, download- and upload-speed features. From these results, we are able to identify the effect of quality regulation on the behavior of internet providers in a differentiated product market approach. As a consequence, we are able to assert that the response of internet service providers to quality regulation is a more intense product differentiation that contributes to demand expansion and therefore to improve broadband penetration indicators.