Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

Interdependence of International Stock Markets, European Government Bond Market and Gold Market

This thesis examines the interdependence of international stock markets (the USA, Europe, Japan, emerging markets, and frontier markets), European government bond market, and gold market during the 21st century. Special focus is on the dynamics of the correlations between the markets, as well as on, spillovers in mean returns and volatility. The mean return spillovers are examined on the basis of the bivariate VAR(1) model, whereas the bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1, 1) model is employed for the analysis of the volatility spillovers. In order to analyze the spillover effects in different market conditions, the full sample period from 2000 to 2013 is divided into the pre-crisis period (2000–2006) and the crisis period (2007–2013). The results indicate an increasing interdependence especially within international stock markets during the periods of financial turbulence, and are thus consistent with the existing literature. Hence, bond and gold markets provide the best diversification benefits for equity investors, particularly during the periods of market turmoil.

Interdependence of Macroeconomics Variables, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility in Latin America

This thesis examines the interdependence of macroeconomic variables, stock market returns and stock market volatility in Latin America between 2000 and 2015. Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru were chosen as the sample markets, while inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, oil and gold were chosen as the sample macroeconomic variables. Bivariate VAR (1) model was applied to examine the mean return spillovers between the variables, whereas GARCH (1, 1) – BEKK model was applied to capture the volatility spillovers. The sample was divided into two smaller sub-periods, where the first sub-period covers from 2000 to 2007, and the second sub-period covers from 2007 to 2015. The empirical results report significant shock transmissions and volatility spillovers between inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, gold, oil and the selected markets, which suggests interdependence between the variables.

Linear prediction application for modelling the relationships between a large number of stand characteristics of Norway spruce stands

Abstract

Fatigue Analysis of Welded Cruciform Joints with Cold Laps

Työssä on tutkittu vetojännityskuormituksen alaisena olevien hitsattujen kuormaa kantamattomien X-liitosten hitsin paikallisen geometrian variaation vaikutusta väsymislujuuteen. Muuttujina olivat reunan pyöristyssäde, kylmäjuoksun suuruus ja kylkikulma. Geometristen muuttujien parametrinen riippuvuussuhde on analysoitu usealla elementtimallilla. Väsymistarkastelu on suoritettu käyttämällä lineaaris-elastista murtumismekaniikkaa (LEFM) tasovenymätilassa ja materiaalina terästä. Särönkasvun suunnan ennustamisessaon käytetty maksimipääjännityskriteeriä sekä jännitysintensiteettikertoimet on määritetty J-integraalilla. Särön ydintymisvaihetta ei ole otettu huomioon. Rakenteen on oletettu olevan hitsatussa tilassa ja jännitysheilahdus on kokonaan tehollinen. Särön kasvunopeuden ennustamiseen on käytetty Paris'n lakia. Väsymislujuustulokset on esitetty karakteristisina väsymisluokkina (FAT) ja sovitettu parametriseksi yhtälöksi. Lopuksi väsymisanalyysin ennustamia tuloksia on verrattu saatavilla oleviin väsytystestituloksiin.

Logististen palvelukonseptien kehittäminen

VALSSI- (Value Added Logistics Service Support) projektin tavoitteena on uusi varaosalogistiikan liiketoimintamuoto. Se tapahtuu tuomalla lisäarvopalveluita tilaustoimitusprosesseihin lisäämällä selkeitä tuotantoprosessiin liittyviä moduuleita palveluyrityksen toimintaan sekä hyödyntämällä tietojärjestelmiä teknologioina. Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli selvittää, kuvata ja kehittää VALSSI-projektiin osaa ottavan kohdeyrityksen, ValLog Oy:n palvelut modulaarisesti prosesseina. Muodostetuista prosesseista oli tavoitteena tehdä myös työkalu, jonka avulla voidaan esitellä asiakkaalle ValLog Oy:n palveluita myyntitilanteessa sekä selvittää asiakkaan palveluiden tarvekartoitusta. Lisäksi yhteistyössä Metso Paper Servicen kanssa oli tavoitteena kartoittaa vastaavatko ValLog Oy:n logistiikkaprosessit markkinoiden vaatimaa tarvetta sekä selvittää diplomityön perustyövaiheen, eli palveluprosessien kuvauksien tuloksia. ValLog Oy:n palvelukokonaisuus, 12 palvelukonseptia, avattiin prosesseiksi, jotka kuvataan vuokaavioina ja kirjallisena selostuksena. Niistä selviää palvelujen toimintojen väliset riippuvuudet eli koko toimintoketju sekä vuorovaikutussuhteet asiakkaan ja ValLog Oy:n välillä. Yhteistyössä Metso Oyj:n kanssa selvisi, että ValLog Oy:n palvelut ovat varaosalogistiikan tarpeisiin erittäin kattavat. Myyntityökaluksi tehdystä PowerPoint- prosessiesityksestä muodostui asiakkaalle selkeä käsitys palvelukokonaisuuksien kokoamisesta asiakastarvelähtöisesti. Uuden liiketoiminnan luomisessa kuvatut palveluprosessit toimivat peruskäsikirjana. Niissä palvelutoiminta muodostuu selkeistä tuotanto-prosessiin liittyvistä logistisista palvelukokonaisuuksista ja niiden analogia soveltuu myös muiden logistiikkayritysten liiketoiminnan selvittämiseen ja modulaariseen kuvaamiseen.

Managing manufacturing data and improving its accuracy

There are two main objects in this study: First, to prove the importance of data accuracy to the business success, and second, create a tool for observing and improving the accuracy of ERP systems production master data. Sub-objective is to explain the need for new tool in client company and the meaning of it for the company. In the theoretical part of this thesis the focus is in stating the importance of data accuracy in decision making and it's implications on business success. Also basics of manufacturing planning are introduced in order to explain the key vocabulary. In the empirical part the client company and its need for this study is introduced. New master data report is introduced, and finally, analysing the report and actions based on the results of analysis are explained. The main results of this thesis are finding the interdependence between data accuracy and business success, and providing a report for continuous master data improvement in the client company's ERP system.

Theoretical background for market emergence framework : Case: Electricity Distribution Industry

Both the competitive environment and the internal structure of an industrial organization are typically included in the processes which describe the strategic management processes of the firm, but less attention has been paid to the interdependence between these views. Therefore, this research focuses on explaining the particular conditions of an industry change, which lead managers to realign the firm in respect of its environment for generating competitive advantage. The research question that directs the development of the theoretical framework is: Why do firms outsource some of their functions? The three general stages of the analysis are related to the following research topics: (i) understanding forces that shape the industry, (ii) estimating the impacts of transforming customer preferences, rivalry, and changing capability bases on the relevance of existing assets and activities, and emergence of new business models, and (iii) developing optional structures for future value chains and understanding general boundaries for market emergence. The defined research setting contributes to the managerial research questions “Why do firms reorganize their value chains?”, “Why and how are decisions made?” Combining Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Resource-Based View (RBV) within an integrated framework makes it possible to evaluate the two dimensions of a company’s resources, namely the strategic value and transferability. The final decision of restructuring will be made based on an analysis of the actual business potential of the outsourcing, where benefits and risks are evaluated. The firm focuses on the risk of opportunism, hold-up problems, pricing, and opportunities to reach a complete contract, and finally on the direct benefits and risks for financial performance. The supplier analyzes the business potential of an activity outside the specific customer, the amount of customer-specific investments, the service provider’s competitive position, abilities to revenue gains in generic segments, and long-term dependence on the customer.

On the development of object functions and restrictions for shapes made with a turret punch press

This study presents the information required to describe the machine and device resources in the turret punch press environment which are needed for the development of the analysing method for automated production. The description of product and device resources and their interconnectedness is the starting point for method comparison the development of expenses, production planning and the performance of optimisation. The manufacturing method cannot be optimized unless the variables and their interdependence are known. Sheet metal parts in particular may then become remarkably complex, and their automatic manufacture may be difficult or, with some automatic equipment, even impossible if not know manufacturing properties. This thesis consists of three main elements, which constitute the triangulation. In the first phase of triangulation, the manufacture occuring on a turret punch press is examined in order to find the factors that affect the efficiency of production. In the second phase of triangulation, the manufacturability of products on turret punch presses is examined through a set of laboratory tests. The third phase oftriangulation involves an examination of five industry parts. The main key findings of this study are: all possible efficiency in high automation level machining cannot be achieved unless the raw materials used in production and the dependencies of the machine and tools are well known. Machine-specific manufacturability factors for turret punch presses were not taken into account in the industrial case samples. On the grounds of the performed tests and industrial case samples, the designer of a sheet metal product can directly influence the machining time, material loss, energy consumption and the number of tools required on a turret punch press by making decisions in the way presented in the hypothesis of thisstudy. The sheet metal parts to be produced can be optimised to bemanufactured on a turret punch press when the material to be used and the kinds of machine and tool options available are known. This provides in-depth knowledge of the machine and tool properties machine and tool-specifically. None of the optimisation starting points described here is a separate entity; instead, they are all connected to each other.

24+1 kansainvälisten suhteiden perusoppikirjaa : havaintoja ja arvioita

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

The us subprime crisis and stock market integration: evidence from the BRICS

The aim of this study is to examine the level of stock market co-movement in the BRICS countries and three major industrialized countries (Japan, UK and USA). While analyzing the interdependence and integration of markets, two subsets are examined: before (2000 – 2007) and during the global financial crisis (2007-2011). Generally, interdependence across markets is likely to increase during a highly volatile period. This is problematic because if it were true, the main benefit of international diversification would be reduced at times when it is most needed. The results reveal the dominant role of the US financial markets over the examined time period. Empirical studies of this research paper indicate that cross-market linkages have become slightly stronger during the ongoing subprime crisis than before crisis. However, results also show that an investor may obtain some international diversification benefits by investing especially in the BRICS countries despite the fact of unstable economic condition and growing globalization.

Ulkoisten tekijöiden vaikutukset aurinkoenergiasektorin osakkeiden hinnoitteluun

Tutkielmassa tarkastellaan ulkoisten tekijöiden kuten maakaasun, piin ja teknologiaosakkeiden vaikutusta aurinkoenergiaosakkeiden kurssimuutoksiin osakemarkkinoilla.