Analysis of outliers in electricity spot prices with exampleof New England and New Zealand markets

Electricity spot prices have always been a demanding data set for time series analysis, mostly because of the non-storability of electricity. This feature, making electric power unlike the other commodities, causes outstanding price spikes. Moreover, the last several years in financial world seem to show that ’spiky’ behaviour of time series is no longer an exception, but rather a regular phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to seek patterns and relations within electricity price outliers and verify how they affect the overall statistics of the data. For the study techniques like classical Box-Jenkins approach, series DFT smoothing and GARCH models are used. The results obtained for two geographically different price series show that patterns in outliers’ occurrence are not straightforward. Additionally, there seems to be no rule that would predict the appearance of a spike from volatility, while the reverse effect is quite prominent. It is concluded that spikes cannot be predicted based only on the price series; probably some geographical and meteorological variables need to be included in modeling.

Harmonization ofsignificant environmental aspects and their risk assessment in UPM paper and pulp mills

Työn tavoite onharmonisoida yhtenäiset rakenteet UPM:n paperi- ja sellutehtaiden merkittävilleympäristönäkökohdille sekä niiden ympäristöriskienhallintajärjestelmille. Näin saavutetaan yhteneväiset tavoitteet ja analysointikeinot yrityksen yksiköille. Harmonisointiprosessi on osa koko yrityksen ympäristöhallintajärjestelmän kehittämistä. Ja konsernin EMS -prosessi puolestaan konvergoi konsernin integroidun johtamisjärjestelmän kehitystä. Lisäksi työn tapaustutkimuksessa selvitettiin riskienhallintajärjestelmien integroitumispotentiaalia. Sen avulla saavutettaisiin paremmin suuren yrityksen synergia-etuja ja vuorovaikutteisuutta toimijoiden kesken, sekä parannettaisiin riskienhallintajärjestelmän mukautuvuutta ja käytettävyyttä. Työssä käsitellään kolmea esimerkkiä, joiden pohjalta tehdään esitys harmonisoiduille merkittäville ympäristönäkökohdille sekä riskienhallintajärjestelmien parametreille. Tutkimusongelmaa lähestytään haastattelujen, kirjallisuuden, yrityksen PWC:llä teettämän selvityksen sekä omien päätelmien avulla. Lisäksi työssä esitetään ympäristöhallintajärjestelmän tehokkuuden todentaminen ympäristösuorituskyvyn muuttujiin suhteutettuna. Pohjana jatkuvan kehityksen päämäärälle on organisaatio-oppiminen, niin yksittäisen työntekijän, tiimien kuin eri yksiköiden kesken. Se antaa sysäyksen aineettoman omaisuuden, kuten ympäristö-osaamisen, hyödyntämiseen parhaalla mahdollisella tavalla. Tärkeimpinä lopputuloksina työssä ovat ehdotukset harmonisoiduille merkittäville ympäristönäkökohdille sekä ympäristöriskienhallintajärjestelmän määritetyille komponenteille. Niitä ovat määritelmät ja skaalat riskien todennäköisyydelle, seurauksille sekä riskiluokille. Työn viimeisenä osana luodaan pohja tapaustutkimuksen avulla Rauman tehtaan jätevedenpuhdistamon kahden erilaisen riskienhallintajärjestelmän integroitumiselle.

Jäähdytysjärjestelmän vaikutus kiinteistön elinkaaren aikaisiin tuottoihin

Ilmastoinnin jäähdytys yleistyy toimisto- ja hotellikiinteistöissä jatkuvasti. Perinteinen tapa tuottaa jäähdytysenergia on kiinteistökohtainen vedenjäähdytysjärjestelmä. Helsingissä on ollut vuodesta 2000 lähtien mahdollista liittyä Helsingin energian kaukojäähdytysverkostoon. Jäähdytysjärjestelmien ominaisuudet poikkeavat toisistaan ja niistä aiheutuu kiinteistönomistajalle erilaisia kustannuksia. Kiinteistöstä saataviin tuottoihin vaikuttaa kustannusten lisäksi vuokralaisen tyytyväisyys. Tämän vuoksi työssä selvitettiin vuokralaisen tarpeet jäähdytysjärjestelmälle haastattelemalla vuokralaisen edustajia. Tässä diplomityössä vertaillaan kaukojäähdytyksen ja kiinteistökohtaisen jäähdytysjärjestelmän kustannuksia, sekä vaikutuksia kiinteistön elinkaarituottoihin kiinteistönomistajan näkökulmasta. Kerättyjen kustannusten perusteella suoritetaan elinkaarikustannuslaskenta GaBi-ohjelmalla. Vuokralaisen tarpeista jäähdytysjärjestelmälle tunnistetaan olennaisiksi toimintavarmuus, ympäristöystävällisyys sekä hiljainen äänitaso. Nämä ovat lisäarvotekijöitä, joille työssä määritetään painoarvo ja jotka huomioidaan laskennassa. Diplomityö osoitti kaukojäähdytyksen kannattavaksi vaihtoehdoksi kiinteistökohtaiselle järjestelmälle, kun huomioidaan hankinta- ja käyttökustannusten lisäksi asennustöiden, käyttöönoton, huollon ja kunnossapidon sekä loppusijoituksen kustannukset. Myös valikoituneet lisäarvotekijät puoltavat kaukojäähdytystä ja niiden kompensointi lisää kiinteistökohtaisen järjestelmän kustannuksia.

Database Rights in Safe European Home: The Path to More Rigorous Protection of Information

1. Introduction "The one that has compiled ... a database, the collection, securing the validity or presentation of which has required an essential investment, has the sole right to control the content over the whole work or over either a qualitatively or quantitatively substantial part of the work both by means of reproduction and by making them available to the public", Finnish Copyright Act, section 49.1 These are the laconic words that implemented the much-awaited and hotly debated European Community Directive on the legal protection of databases,2 the EDD, into Finnish Copyright legislation in 1998. Now in the year 2005, after more than half a decade of the domestic implementation it is yet uncertain as to the proper meaning and construction of the convoluted qualitative criteria the current legislation employs as a prerequisite for the database protection both in Finland and within the European Union. Further, this opaque Pan-European instrument has the potential of bringing about a number of far-reaching economic and cultural ramifications, which have remained largely uncharted or unobserved. Thus the task of understanding this particular and currently peculiarly European new intellectual property regime is twofold: first, to understand the mechanics and functioning of the EDD and second, to realise the potential and risks inherent in the new legislation in economic, cultural and societal dimensions. 2. Subject-matter of the study: basic issues The first part of the task mentioned above is straightforward: questions such as what is meant by the key concepts triggering the functioning of the EDD such as presentation of independent information, what constitutes an essential investment in acquiring data and when the reproduction of a given database reaches either qualitatively or quantitatively the threshold of substantiality before the right-holder of a database can avail himself of the remedies provided by the statutory framework remain unclear and call for a careful analysis. As for second task, it is already obvious that the practical importance of the legal protection providedby the database right is in the rapid increase. The accelerating transformationof information into digital form is an existing fact, not merely a reflection of a shape of things to come in the future. To take a simple example, the digitisation of a map, traditionally in paper format and protected by copyright, can provide the consumer a markedly easier and faster access to the wanted material and the price can be, depending on the current state of the marketplace, cheaper than that of the traditional form or even free by means of public lending libraries providing access to the information online. This also renders it possible for authors and publishers to make available and sell their products to markedly larger, international markets while the production and distribution costs can be kept at minimum due to the new electronic production, marketing and distributionmechanisms to mention a few. The troublesome side is for authors and publishers the vastly enhanced potential for illegal copying by electronic means, producing numerous virtually identical copies at speed. The fear of illegal copying canlead to stark technical protection that in turn can dampen down the demand for information goods and services and furthermore, efficiently hamper the right of access to the materials available lawfully in electronic form and thus weaken the possibility of access to information, education and the cultural heritage of anation or nations, a condition precedent for a functioning democracy. 3. Particular issues in Digital Economy and Information Networks All what is said above applies a fortiori to the databases. As a result of the ubiquity of the Internet and the pending breakthrough of Mobile Internet, peer-to-peer Networks, Localand Wide Local Area Networks, a rapidly increasing amount of information not protected by traditional copyright, such as various lists, catalogues and tables,3previously protected partially by the old section 49 of the Finnish Copyright act are available free or for consideration in the Internet, and by the same token importantly, numerous databases are collected in order to enable the marketing, tendering and selling products and services in above mentioned networks. Databases and the information embedded therein constitutes a pivotal element in virtually any commercial operation including product and service development, scientific research and education. A poignant but not instantaneously an obvious example of this is a database consisting of physical coordinates of a certain selected group of customers for marketing purposes through cellular phones, laptops and several handheld or vehicle-based devices connected online. These practical needs call for answer to a plethora of questions already outlined above: Has thecollection and securing the validity of this information required an essential input? What qualifies as a quantitatively or qualitatively significant investment? According to the Directive, the database comprises works, information and other independent materials, which are arranged in systematic or methodical way andare individually accessible by electronic or other means. Under what circumstances then, are the materials regarded as arranged in systematic or methodical way? Only when the protected elements of a database are established, the question concerning the scope of protection becomes acute. In digital context, the traditional notions of reproduction and making available to the public of digital materials seem to fit ill or lead into interpretations that are at variance with analogous domain as regards the lawful and illegal uses of information. This may well interfere with or rework the way in which the commercial and other operators have to establish themselves and function in the existing value networks of information products and services. 4. International sphere After the expiry of the implementation period for the European Community Directive on legal protection of databases, the goals of the Directive must have been consolidated into the domestic legislations of the current twenty-five Member States within the European Union. On one hand, these fundamental questions readily imply that the problemsrelated to correct construction of the Directive underlying the domestic legislation transpire the national boundaries. On the other hand, the disputes arisingon account of the implementation and interpretation of the Directive on the European level attract significance domestically. Consequently, the guidelines on correct interpretation of the Directive importing the practical, business-oriented solutions may well have application on European level. This underlines the exigency for a thorough analysis on the implications of the meaning and potential scope of Database protection in Finland and the European Union. This position hasto be contrasted with the larger, international sphere, which in early 2005 does differ markedly from European Union stance, directly having a negative effect on international trade particularly in digital content. A particular case in point is the USA, a database producer primus inter pares, not at least yet having aSui Generis database regime or its kin, while both the political and academic discourse on the matter abounds. 5. The objectives of the study The above mentioned background with its several open issues calls for the detailed study of thefollowing questions: -What is a database-at-law and when is a database protected by intellectual property rights, particularly by the European database regime?What is the international situation? -How is a database protected and what is its relation with other intellectual property regimes, particularly in the Digital context? -The opportunities and threats provided by current protection to creators, users and the society as a whole, including the commercial and cultural implications? -The difficult question on relation of the Database protection and protection of factual information as such. 6. Dsiposition The Study, in purporting to analyse and cast light on the questions above, is divided into three mainparts. The first part has the purpose of introducing the political and rationalbackground and subsequent legislative evolution path of the European database protection, reflected against the international backdrop on the issue. An introduction to databases, originally a vehicle of modern computing and information andcommunication technology, is also incorporated. The second part sets out the chosen and existing two-tier model of the database protection, reviewing both itscopyright and Sui Generis right facets in detail together with the emergent application of the machinery in real-life societal and particularly commercial context. Furthermore, a general outline of copyright, relevant in context of copyright databases is provided. For purposes of further comparison, a chapter on the precursor of Sui Generi, database right, the Nordic catalogue rule also ensues. The third and final part analyses the positive and negative impact of the database protection system and attempts to scrutinize the implications further in the future with some caveats and tentative recommendations, in particular as regards the convoluted issue concerning the IPR protection of information per se, a new tenet in the domain of copyright and related rights.

Effect of competitive situation and price on diffusion of mobile communications

Työn päätavoitteena oli selvittää hinnan ja kilpailutilanteen vaikutusta matkaviestinnän diffuusioon. Työn empiirinen osuus tarkasteli matkapuhelinliittymien hinnan vaikutusta liittymien diffuusioon sekä sitä, miten alan kilpailu on vaikuttanut matkaviestinnän hintatasoon. Työssä analysoitiin myös matkaviestinnän kilpailutilannetta Suomen markkinoilla. Tutkimuksen empiirinen aineisto kerättiin toissijaisista lähteistä, esimerkiksi EMC-tietokannasta. Tutkimus oli luonteeltaan kvantitatiivinen.Empiirisessä osassa käytetyt mallit oli muodostettu aikaisempien tutkimuksien perusteella. Regressioanalyysiä käytettiin arvioitaessa hinnan vaikutusta diffuusionopeuteen ja mahdollisten omaksujien määrään. Regressioanalyysissä sovellettiin ei-lineaarista mallia.Tutkimustulokset osoittivat, että tasaisesti laskevilla matkapuhelinliittymien sekä matkapuhelimien hinnoilla ei ole merkittävää vaikutusta matkaviestinnän diffuusioon. Myöskään kilpailutilanne ei ole vaikuttanut paljon matkaviestinnän yleiseen hintatasoon. Työn tulosten perusteella voitiin antaa myös muutamia toimenpide-ehdotuksia jatkotutkimuksia varten.

On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Kevyiden rakennemateriaalien soveltamismahdollisuudet metsäkoneissa

Asiakkaiden ympäristötietoisuus, metsäkoneille asetettavat korkeat vaatimukset ja kiristyvä kilpailu pakottavat metsäkoneiden valmistajat etsimään vaihtoehtoisia valmistusmateriaaleja, joita käyttämällä metsäkoneet kevenevät ja sitä kautta niiden ympäristökuormitukset ja käyttökustannukset alenevat ja kapasiteetti kasvaa. Metsäkoneiden rakenteiden keventämisessä alumiini on yksi varteenotettava vaihtoehto teräksen korvaajaksi, sillä alumiinin ominaisuus/paino -suhde on terästä parempi. Alumiinin käyttöä hitsatuissa rakenteissa ovat rajoittaneet sen korkea hinta ja melko huono väsymiskestävyys. Diplomityön tavoitteena on ollut selvittää mahdollisuuksia korvata metsäkoneiden rakenteista löytyviä teräksestä valmistettuja osia alumiinista valmistetuilla osilla. Diplomityön teoriaosassa on käsitelty rakenteiden keventämistä, metsäkoneille asetettavia vaatimuksia, alumiinien materiaaliominaisuuksia, alumiinirakenteiden valmistuksessa käytettäviä menetelmiä sekä alumiinirakenteiden suunnittelua. Lisäksi teoriaosassa on käsitelty komposiittien materiaaliominaisuuksia ja komposiittirakenteiden suunnittelua. Diplomityön kokeellisessa osassa on vertailtu nykyisiä rakennemateriaaleja ja alumiineja metsäkoneen eri osien rakennemateriaaleina osien vaatimusprofiileihin ja materiaalien ominaisuusprofiileihin perustuen. Vaatimusprofiilien perusteella on laadittu ominaisuusprofiilit alumiineille ja teräksille. Sovittamalla vaatimus- ja ominaisuusprofiilit yhteen arvoanalyysin avulla, metsäkoneista on etsitty mahdollisia kohteita, joissa nykyinen rakennemateriaali voitaisiin korvata alumiinilla. Tältä pohjalta metsäkoneista löytyi rakenteita, joissa alumiinin käyttö rakennemateriaalina teräksen sijaan olisi mahdollista. Diplomityö toimii hyvänä pohjana tutkittaessa mahdollisuuksia metsäkoneiden rakenteiden keventämiseksi.

Formal Power Analysis of Systems-on-Chip

The design methods and languages targeted to modern System-on-Chip designs are facing tremendous pressure of the ever-increasing complexity, power, and speed requirements. To estimate any of these three metrics, there is a trade-off between accuracy and abstraction level of detail in which a system under design is analyzed. The more detailed the description, the more accurate the simulation will be, but, on the other hand, the more time consuming it will be. Moreover, a designer wants to make decisions as early as possible in the design flow to avoid costly design backtracking. To answer the challenges posed upon System-on-chip designs, this thesis introduces a formal, power aware framework, its development methods, and methods to constraint and analyze power consumption of the system under design. This thesis discusses on power analysis of synchronous and asynchronous systems not forgetting the communication aspects of these systems. The presented framework is built upon the Timed Action System formalism, which offer an environment to analyze and constraint the functional and temporal behavior of the system at high abstraction level. Furthermore, due to the complexity of System-on-Chip designs, the possibility to abstract unnecessary implementation details at higher abstraction levels is an essential part of the introduced design framework. With the encapsulation and abstraction techniques incorporated with the procedure based communication allows a designer to use the presented power aware framework in modeling these large scale systems. The introduced techniques also enable one to subdivide the development of communication and computation into own tasks. This property is taken into account in the power analysis part as well. Furthermore, the presented framework is developed in a way that it can be used throughout the design project. In other words, a designer is able to model and analyze systems from an abstract specification down to an implementable specification.

Analysis of Patterns in Electricity Spot Market Time Series

Due to its non-storability, electricity must be produced at the same time that it is consumed, as a result prices are determined on an hourly basis and thus analysis becomes more challenging. Moreover, the seasonal fluctuations in demand and supply lead to a seasonal behavior of electricity spot prices. The purpose of this thesis is to seek and remove all causal effects from electricity spot prices and remain with pure prices for modeling purposes. To achieve this we use Qlucore Omics Explorer (QOE) for the visualization and the exploration of the data set and Time Series Decomposition method to estimate and extract the deterministic components from the series. To obtain the target series we use regression based on the background variables (water reservoir and temperature). The result obtained is three price series (for Sweden, Norway and System prices) with no apparent pattern.

Spare part business analysis and development

The purpose of this Thesis was to comprehensively analyze and develop the spare part business in Company Oy’s five biggest product groups by searching development issues related to single spare parts’ supply chains as well as the spare part business process, make implementation plans for them and implement the plans when possible. The items were classified based on special characteristics of spare parts and on their actual sales volumes. The created item classes were examined for finding improvement possibilities. Management strategies for classified items were suggested. Vendors and customers were analyzed for supporting the comprehensive supply network development work. The effectiveness of the current spare part business process was analyzed in co-operation with the spare part teams in three business unit locations. Several items were taken away from inventories as uselessly stocked items. Price list related to core items with one of the main product group’s core item manufacturer was suggested to be expanded in Town A. Refinement equipment seal item supply chain management was seen important to develop in Town B. A new internal business process model was created for minimizing and enhancing the internal business between Company’s business units. SAP inventory reports and several other features were suggested to be changed or developed. Also the SAP data material management was seen very important to be developed continuously. Many other development issues related to spare parts’ supply chains and the work done in the business process were found. The need for investigating the development possibilities deeper became very clear during the project.

Management of commercial property derived risks in the market context of the Russian Federation

The objective of the thesis is to examine the current state of risk management and to determine an appropriate risk management policy for commercial property derived risks in the Russian branch of a Finnish retail trade company. The employed research methodologies are comparative in-depth interviews and empirical value at risk analysis, including portfolio risk decomposition to determine the inter-currency characteristics. For a multinational retail trade company, the commercial property derived risks open up as a diverse combination of financial and non-financial risks with four distinctive interest groups. The research results indicate that geographical diversification across currency regimes provides diversification benefits. The Russian ruble is the most significant single risk component when considering the net investments outside the euro-zone. Decreasing the Russian ruble and Swedish krona exposures are the most effective methods to reduce translation derived risk. Exchange rate volatility varies over time according to idiosyncratic currency regime characteristics, and cost-effective risk management requires comprehensive analysis of the business environment. Profound and proactive risk management methods are found to be pivotal for companies with cross-border operations in order to succeed among international competitors.

Search and Paper SKU Analysis of Recipes Meeting EUPS Standard

The theoretical research of the study concentrated on finding theoretical frameworks to optimize the amount of needed stock keeping units (SKUs) in manufacturing industry. The goal was to find ways for a company to acquire an optimal collection of stock keeping units needed for manufacturing needed amount of end products. The research follows constructive research approach leaning towards practical problem solving. In the empirical part of this study, a recipe search tool was developed to an existing database used in the target company. The purpose of the tools was to find all the recipes meeting the EUPS performance standard and put the recipes in a ranking order using the data available in the database. The ranking of the recipes was formed from the combination of the performance measures and price of the recipes. In addition, the tool researched what kind of paper SKUs were needed to manufacture the best performing recipes. The tool developed during this process meets the requirements. It eases and makes it much faster to search for all the recipes meeting the EUPS standard. Furthermore, many future development possibilities for the tool were discovered while writing the thesis.

Cost-effectiveness analysis in South Karelia Central Hospital

The target organization of this study, otherwise South-Karelia Social and Health Care District (Eksote) provides health, senior, family and social welfare services. South Karelia Central Hospital provides special health care and offers health services from all of the most important medical specialties. Eksote has in use 15D instrument to measure the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of their patients before and after their interventions for observing the health effects of the medical care. Furthermore, 15D allows measuring the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of health care when comparing these before and after results of the 15D measurements and adding the costs of the interventions into this research. The main purposes of this study were to analyze the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of medical care in South Karelia Central Hospital by using the gathered 15D data to calculate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness ratios and to analyze the reliability and availability of the data. Study has been conducted using literature review and quantitative research methods. The results indicate that from the patients within the eight units selected to this study the 15D change information was available from the 52 %, the 15D change and the cost information from 38 % and the information of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) produced and the cost information from 35 %. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of medical care were greatest at the units of Pain Outpatient Clinic and Rheumatic Diseases Outpatient Clinic. The most effective medical care is given in the unit where the average price of one produced QALY is the highest (Orthopedics). However, the calculated standard deviations pointed out that there are great variances in the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness within the units also.

Startup IPR strategies: Why should startup companies protect their intellectual property?

This thesis studies intellectual property right (also: IPR) strategies from the perspective of high growth startup companies. Due to technology development and intellectualization of business, large part of companies’ assets are nowadays intangible. At the same time, the importance of protection instruments designed to protect these intangible assets, intellectual property rights, is increasing. Utilization of these instruments, however, requires understanding of the functioning of the IPR system, as well as financial resources. Startup companies aiming for growth need to be able compete with more established companies also in relation to intangible assets, but they might not have the required knowledge ot resources to fully utilize IPRs in their business. This research aims to understand what are the benefits a startup company can have from protecting their IPRs, and how can the company achieve those benefits. Based on a review of previous literature, altogether 11 benefits of IPR registration were recognized. To answer to the research questions, six half-structured interviews were conducted with experts form different fields, all with experience in working with startup companies and IPR issues. The interviews were analyzed using different methods of qualitative data analysis, mainly derived from grounded theory and case study methods. As a result, out of the 11 benefits recognized from earlier literature, 8 were recognized to be relevant for startup companies. The most central benefits were recognized to be linked with the financial lifecycle of the startup company, including increasing credibility of the startup and stimulating an investment. In addition it was noticed, that startup companies are mainly able to utilize these benefits at later stages of their lifecycle. However, to be able to utilize the benefits at later stages, the startup company needs to be aware of the functioning of the IPR system and might need to apply for appropriate protection already early on. As a result of this study, a three-step model was formed to describe different levels of IPR utilization. The first level of the model represents the minimum level of understanding that every startup company should have regarding IPRs. The second level views IPR strategy from a risk management perspective, including securing the minimum protection of the company’s own IPRs, contract management and establishing processes for handling IPR issues. The last stage reflects strategic use of IPRs. At this third stage intellectual property rights have a central role in the startup company’s business, and they are used in the company’s value creation.