Determinants of credit default swap spread, the effect of the financial crisis in the us markets

The purpose of this study is to define what determinants affect the Credit spread. There are two theoretical frameworks to study this: structural models and reduced form models. Structural models indicate that the main determinants are company leverage, volatility and risk-free interest rate, and other market and firm-specific variables. The purpose is to determine which of these theoretical determinants can explain the CDS spread and also how these theoretical determinants are affected by the financial crisis in 2007. The data is collected from 30 companies in the US Markets, mainly S&P Large Cap. The sample time-frame is 31.1.2004 – 31.12.2009. Empirical studies indicate that structural models can explain the CDS spreads well. Also, there were significant differences between bear and bull markets. The main determinants explaining CDS spreads were leverage and volatility. The other determinants were significant, depending on the sample period. However, these other variables did not explain the spread consistently.

Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Social ventures : the development of the theory of sustainable contributive advantage and initial empirical tests

This thesis attempts to fill gaps in both a theoretical basis and an operational and strategic understanding in the areas of social ventures, social entrepreneurship and nonprofit business models. This study also attempts to bridge the gap in strategic and economic theory between social and commercial ventures. More specifically, this thesis explores sustainable competitive advantage from a resource-based theory perspective and explores how it may be applied to the nonmarket situation of nonprofit organizations and social ventures. It is proposed that a social value-orientation of sustainable competitive advantage, called sustainable contributive advantage, provides a more realistic depiction of what is necessary in order for a social venture to perform better than its competitors over time. In addition to providing this realistic depiction, this research provides a substantial theoretical contribution in the area of economics, social ventures, and strategy research, specifically in regards to resource-based theory. The proposed model for sustainable contributive advantage uses resource-based theory and competitive advantage in order to be applicable to social ventures. This model proposes an explanation of a social venture’s ability to demonstrate consistently superior performance. In order to determine whether sustainable competitive advantage is in fact, appropriate to apply to both social and economic environments, quantitative analyses are conducted on a large sample of nonprofit organizations in a single industry and then compared to similar quantitative analyses conducted on commercial ventures. In comparing the trends and strategies between the two types of entities from a quantitative perspective, propositions are developed regarding a social venture’s resource utilization strategies and their possible impact on performance. Evidence is found to support the necessity of adjusting existing models in resource-based theory in order to apply them to social ventures. Additionally supported is the proposed theory of sustainable contributive advantage. The thesis concludes with recommendations for practitioners, researchers and policy makers as well as suggestions for future research paths.

Diversification benefits for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor: Real Estate Investment Trusts in the USA

This thesis examined both domestic and international forest investment options for a Finnish non-industrial private forest investor. The focus was on forest-based investment instruments. The influence of movements of currency exchange rates on foreign returns were also taken into account. Annual data from 1995 to 2011 was used. The main portfolio optimization model in this study was the Mean-Variance model but the results were also validated by using the Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall models. In addition, the exchange rate risk hedging was established by using one-week-maturity forward contracts. The results suggested that 75 % of the total wealth should be invested in Finnish private forests and the rest, 25 %, to a US REIT, in this case Rayonier. With hedging, the total return on the portfolio was 7.21 % (NIPF 5.3%) with the volatility of 6.63 % (NIPF 7.9%). Taxation supported US investments in this case. As a conclusion, a Finnish private forest investor may, as evidenced, benefit in diversifying a portfolio using REITs in the US.