The Relationship Between Implied and Realized Volatility

The paper studies the relationship between implied volatility and realized volatility by utilizing regression analysis and correlations.

Clustering and International Competitiveness of Information Technology Industry in the Saint Petersburg Area

The main objective of this study is to assess the potential of the information technology industry in the Saint Petersburg area to become one of the new key industries in the Russian economy. To achieve this objective, the study analyzes especially the international competitiveness of the industry and the conditions for clustering. Russia is currently heavily dependent on its natural resources, which are the main source of its recent economic growth. In order to achieve good long-term economic performance, Russia needs diversification in its well-performing industries in addition to the ones operating in the field of natural resources. The Russian government has acknowledged this and started special initiatives to promote such other industries as information technology and nanotechnology. An interesting industry that is basically less than 20 years old and fast growing in Russia, is information technology. Information technology activities and markets are mainly concentrated in Russia’s two biggest cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, and areas around them. The information technology industry in the Saint Petersburg area, although smaller than Moscow, is especially dynamic and is gaining increasing foreign company presence. However, the industry is not yet internationally competitive as it lacks substantial and sustainable competitive advantages. The industry is also merely a potential global information technology cluster, as it lacks the competitive edge and a wide supplier and manufacturing base and other related parts of the whole information technology value system. Alone, the industry will not become a key industry in Russia, but it will, on the other hand, have an important supporting role for the development of other industries. The information technology market in the Saint Petersburg area is already large and if more tightly integrated to Moscow, they will together form a huge and still growing market sufficient for most companies operating in Russia currently and in the future. Therefore, the potential of information technology inside Russia is immense.

Clustering and international competitiveness of information technology industry in the Saint Petersburg area

The main objective of this study is to assess the potential of the information technology industry in the Saint Petersburg area to become one of the new key industries in the Russian economy. To achieve this objective, the study analyzes especially the international competitiveness of the industry and the conditions for clustering. Russia is currently heavily dependent on its natural resources, which are the main source of its recent economic growth. In order to achieve good long-term economic performance, Russia needs diversification in its well-performing industries in addition to the ones operating in the field of natural resources. The Russian government has acknowledged this and started special initiatives to promote such other industries as information technology and nanotechnology. An interesting industry that is basically less than 20 years old and fast growing in Russia, is information technology. Information technology activities and markets are mainly concentrated in Russia’s two biggest cities, Moscow and Saint Petersburg, and areas around them. The information technology industry in the Saint Petersburg area, although smaller than Moscow, is especially dynamic and is gaining increasing foreign company presence. However, the industry is not yet internationally competitive as it lacks substantial and sustainable competitive advantages. The industry is also merely a potential global information technology cluster, as it lacks the competitive edge and a wide supplier and manufacturing base and other related parts of the whole information technology value system. Alone, the industry will not become a key industry in Russia, but it will, on the other hand, have an important supporting role for the development of other industries. The information technology market in the Saint Petersburg area is already large and if more tightly integrated to Moscow, they will together form a huge and still growing market sufficient for most companies operating in Russia currently and in the future. Therefore, the potential of information technology inside Russia is immense.

Market linkages and volatility spillover: evidence from BRIC countries

The aim of this study is to investigate volatility spillover-effect and market integration between BRIC countries. Motivated by existing literature of market integration between developed and emerging markets, we will investigate market linkages using multivariate asymmetric GARCH BEKK model. The increasing globalization of the financial markets and consequent higher volatility transfer between markets makes it more important to understand market integration between BRIC countries. We investigate the stock market integration and volatility transfer between the BRIC countries form 1998 to 2007, using daily data. The empirical results show that there are international diversification benefits among Brazil, Russia, China and India. U.S. influence to these countries has been week, even though U.S. economy has been leading the global financial markets. From Finnish point of view, diversification benefits are robust but we find some correlation with Russia and China.

Speaker diarization: Segmentation and clustering of speeches

Speaker diarization is the process of sorting speeches according to the speaker. Diarization helps to search and retrieve what a certain speaker uttered in a meeting. Applications of diarization systemsextend to other domains than meetings, for example, lectures, telephone, television, and radio. Besides, diarization enhances the performance of several speech technologies such as speaker recognition, automatic transcription, and speaker tracking. Methodologies previously used in developing diarization systems are discussed. Prior results and techniques are studied and compared. Methods such as Hidden Markov Models and Gaussian Mixture Models that are used in speaker recognition and other speech technologies are also used in speaker diarization. The objective of this thesis is to develop a speaker diarization system in meeting domain. Experimental part of this work indicates that zero-crossing rate can be used effectively in breaking down the audio stream into segments, and adaptive Gaussian Models fit adequately short audio segments. Results show that 35 Gaussian Models and one second as average length of each segment are optimum values to build a diarization system for the tested data. Uniting the segments which are uttered by same speaker is done in a bottom-up clustering by a newapproach of categorizing the mixture weights.

Rocking the Euro boat: scheduled market announcements' effects on Euro implied volatility

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate scheduled market announcements’ effects on Euro implied volatility. Timeline selected for this study ranges from 2005 to 2009. The method chosen is so-called event study approach, in which five days prior to a news announcement stand for a pre-event period, and five days after the announcement form a post-event period. Statistical research method employed is Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test, which examines two evenly-sized distributions’ equality, in this case the distributions being the pre- and post-event periods. Observations are based on daily data of US dollar nominated Euro at-the-money call options. Research results partially back up previous literature’s view of uncertainty increasing prior to the news announcement. After the exact contents of the news is public, uncertainty levels measured by implied volatility tend to lower.

Effects of a Financial Transaction Tax - Do Transaction Costs Lower Volatility?: A Literature Review

In this literature review the theorethical framework of Financial transaction taxes and their assumed effect on market volatility is assessed. The empirical evidence from various studies is compared against the theory and a simple empirical review of the Finnish stock market is conducted. The findings implicate that financial transaction taxes can not reduce volatility and their actual effect on markets is dependend by many other factors as well. Some evidence even suggests that transactions taxes may actually raise volatility.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

Hedge-rahastojen menestyksen pysyvyyden empiirinen tarkastelu sijoittajan näkökulmasta

This study examines performance persistence of hedge funds from investor's point of view and look at the methods by which an investor could choose the successful hedge funds to the portfolio. This study was used the data from HFI & Tremont databases on period 1998-2007. In this study used the 36-month combination (24-month selection and 12-month prediction periods). As the research methods used the Sharpe index, raw returns, MVR (mean variance ratio), GSC-clustering, the SDI index and the new combination of metrics. The evaluation criterions of the results used the volatility, excess returns and the Sharpe index. This study compared different results from the 7 time series with each other, and commenting the problems on a portfolio loss of funds.

Idiosyncratic volatility around information release date

Several papers document idiosyncratic volatility is time-varying and many attempts have been made to reveal whether idiosyncratic risk is priced. This research studies behavior of idiosyncratic volatility around information release dates and also its relation with return after public announcement. The results indicate that when a company discloses specific information to the market, firm’s specific volatility level shifts and short-horizon event-induced volatility vary significantly however, the category to which the announcement belongs is not important in magnitude of change. This event-induced volatility is not small in size and should not be downplayed in event studies. Moreover, this study shows stocks with higher contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility earn lower return after public announcement consistent with “divergence of opinion hypothesis”. While no significant relation is found between EGARCH estimated idiosyncratic volatility and return and also between one-month lagged idiosyncratic volatility and return presumably due to significant jump around public announcement both may provide some signals regarding future idiosyncratic volatility through their correlations with contemporaneous realized idiosyncratic volatility. Finally, the study show that positive relation between return and idiosyncratic volatility based on under-diversification is inadequate to explain all different scenarios and this negative relation after public announcement may provide a useful trading rule.

Market integration, return and volatility dynamics; empirical evidence from African stock markets

Frontier and Emerging economies have implemented policies with the objective of liberalizing their equity markets. Equity market liberalization opens the domestic equity market to foreign investors and as well paves the way for domestic investors to invest in foreign equity securities. Among other things, equity market liberalization results in diversification benefits. Moreover, equity market liberalization leads to low cost of equity capital resulting from the lower rate of return by investors. Additionally, foreign and local investors share any potential risks. Liberalized equity markets also become liquid considering that there are more investors to trade. Equity market liberalization results in financial integration which explains the movement of two markets. In crisis period, increased volatility and co-movement between two markets may result in what is termed contagion effects. In Africa, major moves toward financial liberalization generally started in the late 1980s with South Africa as the pioneer. Over the years, researchers have studied the impact of financial liberalization on Africa’s economic development with diverse results; some being positive, others negative and still others being mixed. The objective of this study is to establish whether African stock-markets are integrated into the United States (US) and World market. Furthermore, the study helps to see if there are international linkages between the Africa, US and the world markets. A Bivariate- VAR- GARCH- BEKK model is employed in the study. In the study, the effect of thin trading is removed through series of econometric data purification. This is because thin trading, also known as non-trading or inconsistency of trading, is a main feature of African markets and may trigger inconsistency and biased results. The study confirmed the widely established results that the South Africa and Egypt stock markets are highly integrated with the US and World market. Interestingly, the study adds to knowledge in this research area by establishing the fact that Kenya is very integrated with the US and World markets and that it receives and exports past innovations as well as shocks to and from the US and World market.

Online peer to peer lending: clustering borrowers using self-organizing maps

The purpose of this thesis is to find out whether all the peer to peer lenders are unworthy of credit and also if there are single qualities or combinations of qualities that determine the probability of default of a person or group of people. Distinguishing qualities are searched with self-organizing maps (SOM). Qualities and groups of people found by the self-organizing map are then compared to the average. The comparison is carried out by looking how big proportion of borrowers meeting the criteria is two months or more behind with their payments. Research data used is collected by an Estonian peer to peer lending company during the years of 2011-2014. Data consists of peer to peer borrowers and information gathered from them.