Distribution systems of the food sector in Russia: the perspective of Finnish food industry

Finnish food producers' trade with Russia has experienced profound changes since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Simultaneously, the distribution systems of foodstuffs have changed remarkably. This study sheds some light into these changes and analyses the current situation in distribution systems of foodstuffs in Russia. In addition, the study discusses the possibilities of Finnish food producers to get more of their products to the shelves of Russian food retail stores. Before the 1998 financial crisis, the import of foreign foodstuffs was booming in Russia due to the overvalued rouble. As a result of the financial crisis, food import collapsed. The export of Finnish foodstuffs to Russia has been slowly recovering during the past few years, but in the most important product categories the pre-crisis levels have so far not been reached and maybe will not be reached. In certain product categories the growth has been only marginal. It seems that starting localproduction will become increasingly important in the future. This is further encouraged by the fact that Russian consumers favour domestic food products. Russian consumers are very price conscious and demand quality in food products. The perceived price-quality ratio is an important criterion in the purchase decision.The majority of foodstuff retail is still conducted via unorganised forms of trade (e.g. kiosks and marketplaces) but modern retail chains are developing at a fast pace in Russia. They are also expected to dominate the retail trade in foodstuffs over the unorganised forms of trade in the future. This will change the distribution systems as well. The retail chains are trying to shorten the distribution chain, similarly to what has been seen in the Western countries. This together with the strengthening of retail chains is likely to shrink the role of wholesalers, as the chains increasingly want to work directly with the producers. Many large retail chains are acquiring or have already acquired a distribution centre or centres in order to boost efficiency and control the flow of products. The strengthening of the retail chains also gives them power in negotiations, which the producers and distributors have to adjust to. For example store entry fees and retail chains' own private label products pose challenges to the food producers. In the food production sector the competition is fierce, as large Russianand foreign producers want to ensure their piece of the market. The largest producers utilise their size: they invest in big marketing campaigns and are willing to pay high entry fees to retail chains in order to secure a place on the store shelves and to build a strong brand in Russia. This complicates the situation from the viewpoint of small producers. Currently, the most popular type of distribution system among the interviewed Finnish food producers is based on a network of local distributors. There is, however, a strong consensus on the importanceof starting local production in order to be a serious actor in Russia in the future. Factors that hinder the starting of local production include the lack of local infrastructure and qualified staff, and the low risk tolerance of Finnish firms. Major barriers for entry in Russia are the actions of authorities, fierce competition, fragmented market and Finnish producers' heavy production costs. The suggested strategies for increasing the market share include focusing geographically or segment-wise, introducing new products, starting local production, andcooperation between Finnish producers. Smallness was one reason why Finnish producers had to cut down their operations in Russia due to the 1998 crisis. Smaller producers had fewer resources to tolerate losses during the period of crisis. Smallness is reflected also on trade negotiations with retail chains and distributors. It makes it harder to cope with the store entry fees and to differentiatefrom the mass of products propped up by expensive advertising. Finally, it makes it harder for Finnish producers to start or expand local production, as it is more difficult for a small producer to get financing and to tolerate the increased risks. Compensating for the smallness might become the crucial factor determining the future success of Finnish food producers in the Russian market.

Are Evaluation of ICTs Investment Using Decision Support Systems:Case Applications from Distributor's and End User's Perspective Group Decision

The evaluation of investments in advanced technology is one of the most important decision making tasks. The importance is even more pronounced considering the huge budget concerning the strategic, economic and analytic justification in order to shorten design and development time. Choosing the most appropriate technology requires an accurate and reliable system that can lead the decision makers to obtain such a complicated task. Currently, several Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) manufacturers that design global products are seeking local firms to act as their sales and services representatives (called distributors) to the end user. At the same time, the end user or customer is also searching for the best possible deal for their investment in ICT's projects. Therefore, the objective of this research is to present a holistic decision support system to assist the decision maker in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - working either as individual decision makers or in a group - in the evaluation of the investment to become an ICT's distributor or an ICT's end user. The model is composed of the Delphi/MAH (Maximising Agreement Heuristic) Analysis, a well-known quantitative method in Group Support System (GSS), which is applied to gather the average ranking data from amongst Decision Makers (DMs). After that the Analytic Network Process (ANP) analysis is brought in to analyse holistically: it performs quantitative and qualitative analysis simultaneously. The illustrative data are obtained from industrial entrepreneurs by using the Group Support System (GSS) laboratory facilities at Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland and in Thailand. The result of the research, which is currently implemented in Thailand, can provide benefits to the industry in the evaluation of becoming an ICT's distributor or an ICT's end user, particularly in the assessment of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) programme. After the model is put to test with an in-depth collaboration with industrial entrepreneurs in Finland and Thailand, the sensitivity analysis is also performed to validate the robustness of the model. The contribution of this research is in developing a new approach and the Delphi/MAH software to obtain an analysis of the value of becoming an ERP distributor or end user that is flexible and applicable to entrepreneurs, who are looking for the most appropriate investment to become an ERP distributor or end user. The main advantage of this research over others is that the model can deliver the value of becoming an ERP distributor or end user in a single number which makes it easier for DMs to choose the most appropriate ERP vendor. The associated advantage is that the model can include qualitative data as well as quantitative data, as the results from using quantitative data alone can be misleading and inadequate. There is a need to utilise quantitative and qualitative analysis together, as can be seen from the case studies.

End User Perspective to ERP Implementation

Toiminnanohjausjärjestelmät ovat oleellinen osa yrityksien liiketoimintaa. Järjestelmän päivittäminen uudempaan versioon tai kokonaan uuden järjestelmän käyttöönotto saattavat yrityksen ydintoiminnot ja prosessit hyvin haavoittuvaiseen asemaan. Järjestelmien kokonaisvaltaisuus yhdessä reaaliaikaisen käyttöönoton kanssa tekevät näistä projekteista erityisen haasteellisia. Tämä pro gradu -tutkielman tapaustutkimuskohteena toimi Andritz Oy. Tapaustutkimuksen tavoitteena oli arvioida kesäkuussa 2005 suoritettua toiminnanohjausjärjestelmän käyttöönottoa ja sitä kuinka hyvin tässä onnistuttiin. Tutkimus toteutettiin loppukäyttäjännäkökulmasta. Loppukäyttäjä omalla työllään voi vaikuttaa miten hyvin järjestelmästä tavoitellut hyödyt pystytään lunastamaan. Tutkimus on laadullinen tapaustutkimus. Tutkimuksessa kiinnitetään huomiota erityisestiprojektitiimin, johdon ja käyttäjien eroaviin näkemyksiin käyttöönoton onnistumisesta.

Kehittämistarpeet investointihyödykkeitä valmistavassa kansainvälisessä konsernissa. Case: GWS Systems Oy

Tutkielman aiheena on case-yrityksen kansainvälisen liiketoiminnan kehittäminen. Tutkielmassa selvitetään, minkälaisiin toimenpiteisiin case-yrityksen olisi liiketoiminnallisin perustein lähitulevaisuudessa ryhdyttävä sen ulkomaisten myyntiyhtiöiden suhteen vientitoimintaa kehitettäessä. Tarkastelunäkökulma on strategialähtöinen. Johdon päätöksenteon tarpeisiin tähtäävä käsittely painottuu strategian ja laskentatoimen välisen ajankohtaisen vuorovaikutuksen käsittelyyn. Tutkimus on kvalitatiivinen tapaustutkimus. Tutkimusmenetelmä on käytetty osallistuvaa havainnointia sekä haastatteluja. Tutkimuksen tulosten mukaan case-yrityksen tulisi muuttaa vientitoimintamalliaan nykyisestä tytäryhtiömuotoisesta toimintamallista hallinnollisesti ja kustannusrakenteellisesti kevyempään suuntaan. Kannattavuuden parantamiseksi suositellaan lisäksi strategisen johdon laskentatoimen menetelmistä asiakaskannattavuusanalyysin käyttöönottoa myyntiyhtiöiden kannattavimpien asiakkuuksien tunnistamiseksi, jotta niukat resurssit voitaisiin kohdistaa niihin asiakkaisiin, jotka synnyttävät enemmän myyntiä ja parempia tuottoja.

Managing the Front End of Innovation in a Networked Company Environment - Combining Strategy, Processes and Systems of Innovation

The objective of the thesis is to enhance the understanding about the management of the front end phases of the innovation process in a networked environment. The thesis approaches the front end of innovation from three perspectives, including the strategy, processes and systems of innovation. The purpose of the use of different perspectives in the thesis is that of providing an extensive systemic view of the front end, and uncovering the complex nature of innovation management. The context of the research is the networked operating environment of firms. The unit of analysis is the firm itself or its innovation processes, which means that this research approaches the innovation networks from the point of view of a firm. The strategy perspective of the thesis emphasises the importance of purposeful innovation management, the innovation strategy of firms. The role of innovation processes is critical in carrying out innovation strategies in practice, supporting the development of organizational routines for innovation, and driving the strategic renewal of companies. The primary focus of the thesis from systems perspective is on idea management systems, which are defined as a part of innovation management systems, and defined for this thesis as any working combination of methodology and tools (manual or IT-supported) that enhance the management of innovations within their early phases. The main contribution of the thesis are the managerial frameworks developed for managing the front end of innovation, which purposefully “wire” the front end of innovation into the strategy and business processes of a firm. The thesis contributes to modern innovation management by connecting the internal and external collaboration networks as foundational elements for successful management of the early phases of innovation processes in a dynamic environment. The innovation capability of a firm is largely defined by its ability to rely on and make use of internal and external collaboration already during the front end activities, which by definition include opportunity identification and analysis, idea generation, profileration and selection, and concept definition. More specifically, coordination of the interfaces between these activities, and between the internal and external innovation environments of a firm is emphasised. The role of information systems, in particular idea management systems, is to support and delineate the innovation-oriented behaviour and interaction of individuals and organizations during front end activities. The findings and frameworks developed in the thesis can be used by companies for purposeful promotion of their front end processes. The thesis provides a systemic strategy framework for managing the front end of innovation – not as a separate process, but as an elemental bundle ofactivities that is closely linked to the overall innovation process and strategy of a firm in a distributed environment. The theoretical contribution of the thesis relies on the advancement of the open innovation paradigm in the strategic context of a firm within its internal and external innovation environments. This thesis applies the constructive research approach and case study methodology to provide theoretically significant results, which are also practically beneficial.

Use Of Systems Approach with Total Quality Management in Industrial Organizations

The objective of the work has been to study why systems thinking should be used in combination with TQM, what are the main benefits of the integration and how it could best be done. The work analyzes the development of systems thinking and TQM with time and the main differences between them. The work defines prerequisites for adopting a systems approach and the organizational factors which embody the development of an efficient learning organization. The work proposes a model based on combination of an interactive management model and redesign to be used for application of systems approach with TQM in practice. The results of the work indicate that there are clear differences between systems thinking and TQM which justify their combination. Systems approach provides an additional complementary perspective to quality management. TQM is focused on optimizing operations at the operational level while interactive management and redesign of organization are focused on optimization operations at the conceptual level providing a holistic system for value generation. The empirical study demonstrates the applicability of the proposed model in one case study company but its application is tenable and possible also beyond this particular company. System dynamic modeling and other systems based techniques like cognitive mapping are useful methods for increasing understanding and learning about the behavior of systems. The empirical study emphasizes the importance of using a proper early warning system.

Innovations of ageing and societal transition : Dynamics of change of the socio-technical regime of ageing

The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the dynamics of the socio-technical system in the field of ageing. The study stems from the notion that the ageing of the population as a powerful megatrend has wide societal effects, and is not just a matter for the social and health sector. The central topic in the study is change: not only the age structures and structures of society are changing, but also at the same time there is constant development, for instance, in technologies, infrastructures and cultural perceptions. The changing concept of innovation has widened the understanding of innovations related to ageing from medical and assistive technological innovations to service and social innovations, as well as systemic innovations at different levels, which means the intertwined and co-evolutionary change in technologies, structures, services and thinking models. By the same token, the perceptions of older people and old age are becoming more multi-faceted: old age is no longer equated to illnesses and decline, but visions of active ageing and a third age have emerged, which are framed by choices, opportunities, resources and consumption in later life. The research task in this study is to open up the processes and mechanisms of change in the field of ageing, which are studied as a complex, multi-level and interrelated socio-technical system. The question is about co-effective elements consisting of macro-level landscape changes, the existing socio-technical regime (the rule system, practices and structures) and bottom-up niche-innovations. Societal transitions do not account for the things inside the regime alone, or for the long-term changes in the landscape, nor for the radical innovations, but for the interplay between all these levels. The research problem is studied through five research articles, which offer micro-level case studies to macro-level phenomenon. Each of the articles focus on different aspects related to ageing and change, and utilise various datasets. The framework of this study leans on the studies of socio-technical systems and multi-level perspective on transitions mainly developed by Frank Geels. Essential factors in transition from one socio-technological regime to another are the co-evolutionary processes between landscape changes, regime level and experimental niches. Landscape level changes, like the ageing of the population, destabilise the regime in the forms of coming pressures. This destabilization offers windows for opportunity to niche-innovations outside or at fringe of the regime, which, through their breakthrough, accelerate the transition process. However, the change is not easy because of various kinds of lock-ins and inertia, which tend to maintain the stability of the regime. In this dissertation, a constructionist approach of society is applied leaning mainly to the ideas of Anthony Giddens’ theory of structuration, with the dual nature of structures. The change is taking place in the interplay between actors and structures: structures shape people’s practices, but at the same time these practices constitute and reproduce social systems. Technology and other material aspects, as part of socio-technical systems, and the use of them, also take part in the structuration process. The findings of the study point out that co-evolutionary and co-effective relationships between economic, cultural, technological and institutional fields, as well as relationships between landscape changes, changes in the local and regime-level practices and rule systems, are a very complex and multi-level dynamic socio-technical phenomenon. At the landscape level of ageing, which creates the pressures and triggers to the regime change, there are three remarkable megatrends: demographic change, changes in the global economy and the development of technologies. These exert pressures to the socio-technical regime, which as a rule system is experiencing changes in the form of new markets and consumer habits, new ways of perceiving ageing, new models of organising the health care and other services and as new ways of considering innovation and innovativeness. There are also inner dynamics in the relationships between these aspects within the regime. These are interrelated and coconstructed: the prevailing perceptions of ageing and innovation, for instance, reflect the ageing policies, innovation policies, societal structures, organising models, technology and scientific discussion, and vice versa. Technology is part of the inner dynamics of the sociotechnological regime. Physical properties of the artefacts set limitations and opportunities with regard to their functions and uses. The use of and discussion about technology, contributes producing and reproducing the perceptions of old age. For societal transition, micro-level changes are also needed, in form of niche-innovations, for instance new services, organisational models or new technologies, Regimes, as stabilitystriven systems, tend to generate incremental innovations, but radically new innovations are generated in experimental niches protected from ‘normal’ market selection. The windows of opportunity for radical novelties may be opened if the circumstances are favourable for instance by tensions in the socio-technical regime affected by landscape level changes. This dissertation indicates that a change is taking place, firstly, in the dynamic interactionbetween levels, as a result of purposive action and governance to some extent. Breaking the inertia and using the window of opportunity for change and innovation offered by dynamics between levels, presupposes the actors’ special capabilities and actions such as dynamic capabilities and distance management. Secondly, the change is taking place the socio-technological negotiations inside the regime: interaction between technological and social, which is embodied in the use of technology. The use of technology includes small-level contextual scripts that also participate in forming broader societal scripts (for instance defining old age at the society level), which in their turn affect the formation of policies for innovation and ageing. Thirdly, the change is taking place by the means of active formation of the multi-actor innovation networks, where the role of distance management is crucial to facilitate the communication between actors coming from different backgrounds as well as to help the niches born outside the regime to utilise the window of opportunity offered by regime destabilisation. This dissertation has both theoretical and practical contributions. This study participates in the discussion of action-oriented view on transition by opening up of the socio-technological, coevolutionary processes of the multi-faceted phenomenon of ageing, which has lacked systematic analyses. The focus of this study, however, is not on the large-scale coordination and governance, but rather on opening up the incremental elements and structuration processes, which contribute to the transition little by little, and which can be affected to. This increases the practical importance of this dissertation, by highlighting the importance of very tiny, everyday elements in the change processes in the long run.

Methods for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology : applications to the modelling of the heat shock response and the self-assembly of intermediate filaments

Systems biology is a new, emerging and rapidly developing, multidisciplinary research field that aims to study biochemical and biological systems from a holistic perspective, with the goal of providing a comprehensive, system- level understanding of cellular behaviour. In this way, it addresses one of the greatest challenges faced by contemporary biology, which is to compre- hend the function of complex biological systems. Systems biology combines various methods that originate from scientific disciplines such as molecu- lar biology, chemistry, engineering sciences, mathematics, computer science and systems theory. Systems biology, unlike “traditional” biology, focuses on high-level concepts such as: network, component, robustness, efficiency, control, regulation, hierarchical design, synchronization, concurrency, and many others. The very terminology of systems biology is “foreign” to “tra- ditional” biology, marks its drastic shift in the research paradigm and it indicates close linkage of systems biology to computer science. One of the basic tools utilized in systems biology is the mathematical modelling of life processes tightly linked to experimental practice. The stud- ies contained in this thesis revolve around a number of challenges commonly encountered in the computational modelling in systems biology. The re- search comprises of the development and application of a broad range of methods originating in the fields of computer science and mathematics for construction and analysis of computational models in systems biology. In particular, the performed research is setup in the context of two biolog- ical phenomena chosen as modelling case studies: 1) the eukaryotic heat shock response and 2) the in vitro self-assembly of intermediate filaments, one of the main constituents of the cytoskeleton. The range of presented approaches spans from heuristic, through numerical and statistical to ana- lytical methods applied in the effort to formally describe and analyse the two biological processes. We notice however, that although applied to cer- tain case studies, the presented methods are not limited to them and can be utilized in the analysis of other biological mechanisms as well as com- plex systems in general. The full range of developed and applied modelling techniques as well as model analysis methodologies constitutes a rich mod- elling framework. Moreover, the presentation of the developed methods, their application to the two case studies and the discussions concerning their potentials and limitations point to the difficulties and challenges one encounters in computational modelling of biological systems. The problems of model identifiability, model comparison, model refinement, model inte- gration and extension, choice of the proper modelling framework and level of abstraction, or the choice of the proper scope of the model run through this thesis.

Private Home Care in Municipal Service Systems – A Case Study among Finnish and Swedish Municipalities

The aim of this study is to assess the current and future preconditions for conducting private business in municipal service systems for home care in Lahti and Hyvinkää in Finland, and in Uppsala and Huddinge in Sweden. This study also aims to assess the implications of quality related issues on the preconditions for conducting private business in the service systems in question. The theories and the research methodologies of the study are based on the Business Model Generation and the Business Model Canvas -concepts. Also a couple of frameworks on implications of quality are applied and integrated into the study. The study is completed as a case study – with structured and identical approaches for all four municipalities. The analyses and assessments of the study are primarily qualitative, but supported by simple quantitative methodologies. The data of the study consists primarily of publicly available information, and secondarily of answers provided by the case-municipalities to multiple choice questions. The results of the study show that the service systems for home care among the case-municipalities are, from perspective of private companies, diverse with local characteristics. Both the premises for conducting private business and the quality-issues are in many respects different in the Finnish and the Swedish case-municipalities. This is partly due to differences in the national service systems; the service voucher system versus the system of choice. Still, it appears that the current preconditions for conducting private business in the service systems for home care, including the implications of quality, would be more favorable in Uppsala and Huddinge than in Lahti and Hyvinkää. On the other hand, the service systems are subject to changes, and the most positive and significant development is here forecasted for a Finnish case-municipality (Lahti). Communication of quality is clearly more advanced in the Swedish case-municipalities. The results of this study can be utilized in several ways, for instance by private companies interested in entering into service systems for home care, either in some of the case-municipalities, or in some other Finnish or Swedish municipalities. Also municipalities can apply the analyses of the study when designing, developing or evaluating their own service systems for home care.

Exploration and Design of Power-Efficient Networked Many-Core Systems

Multiprocessing is a promising solution to meet the requirements of near future applications. To get full benefit from parallel processing, a manycore system needs efficient, on-chip communication architecture. Networkon- Chip (NoC) is a general purpose communication concept that offers highthroughput, reduced power consumption, and keeps complexity in check by a regular composition of basic building blocks. This thesis presents power efficient communication approaches for networked many-core systems. We address a range of issues being important for designing power-efficient manycore systems at two different levels: the network-level and the router-level. From the network-level point of view, exploiting state-of-the-art concepts such as Globally Asynchronous Locally Synchronous (GALS), Voltage/ Frequency Island (VFI), and 3D Networks-on-Chip approaches may be a solution to the excessive power consumption demanded by today’s and future many-core systems. To this end, a low-cost 3D NoC architecture, based on high-speed GALS-based vertical channels, is proposed to mitigate high peak temperatures, power densities, and area footprints of vertical interconnects in 3D ICs. To further exploit the beneficial feature of a negligible inter-layer distance of 3D ICs, we propose a novel hybridization scheme for inter-layer communication. In addition, an efficient adaptive routing algorithm is presented which enables congestion-aware and reliable communication for the hybridized NoC architecture. An integrated monitoring and management platform on top of this architecture is also developed in order to implement more scalable power optimization techniques. From the router-level perspective, four design styles for implementing power-efficient reconfigurable interfaces in VFI-based NoC systems are proposed. To enhance the utilization of virtual channel buffers and to manage their power consumption, a partial virtual channel sharing method for NoC routers is devised and implemented. Extensive experiments with synthetic and real benchmarks show significant power savings and mitigated hotspots with similar performance compared to latest NoC architectures. The thesis concludes that careful codesigned elements from different network levels enable considerable power savings for many-core systems.

Structural and operational optimisation : applications in energy systems

In this work mathematical programming models for structural and operational optimisation of energy systems are developed and applied to a selection of energy technology problems. The studied cases are taken from industrial processes and from large regional energy distribution systems. The models are based on Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP), Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming (MINLP) and on a hybrid approach of a combination of Non-Linear Programming (NLP) and Genetic Algorithms (GA). The optimisation of the structure and operation of energy systems in urban regions is treated in the work. Firstly, distributed energy systems (DES) with different energy conversion units and annual variations of consumer heating and electricity demands are considered. Secondly, district cooling systems (DCS) with cooling demands for a large number of consumers are studied, with respect to a long term planning perspective regarding to given predictions of the consumer cooling demand development in a region. The work comprises also the development of applications for heat recovery systems (HRS), where paper machine dryer section HRS is taken as an illustrative example. The heat sources in these systems are moist air streams. Models are developed for different types of equipment price functions. The approach is based on partitioning of the overall temperature range of the system into a number of temperature intervals in order to take into account the strong nonlinearities due to condensation in the heat recovery exchangers. The influence of parameter variations on the solutions of heat recovery systems is analysed firstly by varying cost factors and secondly by varying process parameters. Point-optimal solutions by a fixed parameter approach are compared to robust solutions with given parameter variation ranges. In the work enhanced utilisation of excess heat in heat recovery systems with impingement drying, electricity generation with low grade excess heat and the use of absorption heat transformers to elevate a stream temperature above the excess heat temperature are also studied.

Enhancing the development of military capabilities by a systems approach

The political environment of security and defence has changed radically in the Western industrialised world since the Cold War. As a response to these changes, since the beginning of the twenty-first century, most Western countries have adopted a ‘capabilities-based approach’ to developing and operating their armed forces. More responsive and versatile military capabilities must be developed to meet the contemporary challenges. The systems approach is seen as a beneficial means of overcoming traps in resolving complex real -world issues by conventional thinking. The main objectives of this dissertation are to explore and assess the means to enhance the development of military capabilities both in concept development and experimentation (CD&E) and in national defence materiel collaboration issues. This research provides a unique perspective, a systems approach, to the development areas of concern in resolving complex real-world issues. This dissertation seeks to increase the understanding of the military capability concept both as a whole and with in its life cycle. The dissertation follows the generic functionalist systems methodology by Jackson. The methodology applies a comprehensive set of constitutive rules to examine the research objectives. This dissertation makes contribution to current studies about military capability. It presents two interdepen dent conceptual capability models: the comprehensive capability meta-model (CCMM) and the holistic capability life cycle model (HCLCM). These models holistically and systematically complement the existing, but still evolving, understanding of military capability and its life cycle. In addition, this dissertation contributes to the scientific discussion of defence procurement in its broad meaning by introducing the holistic model about the national defence materiel collaboration between the defence forces, defence industry and academia. The model connects the key collaborative mechanisms, which currently work in isolation from each other, and take into consideration the unique needs of each partner. This dissertation contributes empirical evidence regarding the benefits of enterprise architectures (EA) to CD&E. The EA approach may add value to traditional concept development by increasing the clarity, consistency and completeness of the concept. The most important use considered for EA in CD&E is that it enables further utilisation of the concept created in the case project.

On state and parameter estimation in chaotic systems

State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.