20 resultados para Superlinear and Semi–Superlinear Convergence
em Doria (National Library of Finland DSpace Services) - National Library of Finland, Finland
Resumo:
The objective of the thesis is to enhance understanding of the evolution of convergence. Previous research has shown that the technological interfaces between distinct industries are one of the major sources of new radical cross-industry innovations. Despite the fact that convergence in industry evolution has attracted a substantial managerial interest, the conceptual confusion within the field of convergence exists. Firstly, this study clarifies the convergence phenomenon and its impact to industry evolution. Secondly, the study creates novel patent analysis methods to analyze technological convergence and provide tools for anticipating the early stages of convergence. Overall the study combines the industry evolution perspective and the convergence view of industrial evolution. The theoretical background for the study consists of the industry life cycle theories, technology evolution, and technological trajectories. The study links several important concepts in analyzing industry evolution, technological discontinuities, path-dependency, technological interfaces as a source of industry transformation, and the evolutionary stagesof convergence. Based on reviewing the literature a generic understanding of industry transformation and industrial dynamics was generated. In the convergence studies, the theoretical basis is in the discussion of different convergence types and their impacts on industry evolution, and in anticipating and monitoring the stages of convergence. The study is divided in two parts. The first part gives a general overview, and the second part comprises eight research publications. Our case study is based historically on two very distinct industries of the paper and electronics companies as a test environment to evaluate the importance of emerging business sectors and technological convergence as a source of industry transformation. Both qualitative and quantitative research methodology are utilized. The results of this study reveal that technological convergence and complementary innovations from different fields have significant effect to the emerging new business sector formation. The patent-based indicators in the analysis of technological convergence can be utilized on analyzing technology competition, capability and competence development, knowledge accumulation, knowledge spill-overs, and technology-based industry transformation. The patent-based indicators can provide insights to the future competitive environment. Results and conclusions from empirical part seem not be in conflict with real observations in the industry.
Resumo:
Venäjällä uudistetaan sähkömarkkinoita. Uudistamisella pyritään vapauttamaan sähkömarkkinat ja lisäämään kilpailua energiasektorilla. Sähkömarkkinoiden vapauttamisen tarkoitus on energiasektorin hyötysuhteen nostaminen ja investointien houkutteleminen sektorille. Venäjä on ratifioinut Kioton protokollan, mikä energiasektorin kannalta on tärkeää, koska protokollan yhteistoteutusmekanismin kautta saadaan houkuteltua investointeja sektorille. Venäjän sähkömarkkinoiden vapauttamisen pitkäaikainen tähtäin on Venäjän ja Euroopan sähkömarkkinoiden integroituminen, joka tarkoittaa myös ympäristölainsäädännönyhtenäistämistä. Tämä tutkimus on osa Fortum Oyj:n tarjoamaa teknistä katselmusta Venäjällä toimivalle sähköyhtiölle, TGC-9:lle. Tässä työssä keskitytään TGC-9:n omistamien energiatuotantolaitoksien happamoitumista aiheuttaviin ilmapäästöihin ja pölypäästöihin. Tutkimuksessa pyritään myös löytämään Kioton protokollan yhteistoteutusmekanismi hyödyntämiskohteita. NOx -päästöt tulevat olemaan suurin haaste TGC-9:lle, jos ympäristöstandardit yhdenmukaistetaan. Yhteistoteutusmekanismin hyödyntämiskohteita löydettiin neljä: koksaamokaasun hyödyntäminen, maakaasun korvaaminen kuoren poltolla ja kaksi tapausta liittyen laitoksien hyötysuhteen nostamiseen.
Resumo:
The study of convergence and divergence in global economy and social development utilises comparative indicators to investigate the contents of economic and social development policy and their effects on the global samples that represent the rich industrial, semi-industrial and the poor developing nations. The study searchesfor answers to questions such as "what are the objectives of economic growth policies in globalisation under the imperatives of convergence and divergence, and how do these affect human well-being in consideration to the objectives of social policy in various nations?" The empirical verification of data utilises the concepts of the `logic of industrialism´ for comparative analysis that focuses mainly on identifying the levels of well-being in world nations after the Second World War. The perspectives of convergence and divergence in global economy and social development critically examine the stages of early development processes in global economy, distinguish the differences between economy and social development, illustrate the contents of economic and social development policies, their effects on rich and poor countries, and the nature of convergence and divergence in propelling economic growth and unequal social development in world nations. The measurement of convergence and divergence in global economy and social development utilised both economic and social data that were combined into an index that measures the precise levels of the effects of economic and social development policies on human well-being in the rich and poor nations. The task of finding policy solutions to resolve the controversies are reviewed through empirical investigations and the analyses of trends indicated within economic and social indicators and data. These revealed how the adoption of social policy measures in translating the gains from economic growth, towards promoting education, public health, and equity, generate social progress and longer life expectancy, higher economic growth, and sustain more stable macro economy for the nations. Social policy is concerned with the translation of benefits from objectives of global economic growth policies, to objectives of social development policy in nation states. Social policy, therefore, represents an open door whereby benefits of economic growth policies are linked with the broader objectives of social development policy, thereby enhancing the possibility of extending benefits from economic growth to all human being in every nation.
Resumo:
The present study was done with two different servo-systems. In the first system, a servo-hydraulic system was identified and then controlled by a fuzzy gainscheduling controller. The second servo-system, an electro-magnetic linear motor in suppressing the mechanical vibration and position tracking of a reference model are studied by using a neural network and an adaptive backstepping controller respectively. Followings are some descriptions of research methods. Electro Hydraulic Servo Systems (EHSS) are commonly used in industry. These kinds of systems are nonlinearin nature and their dynamic equations have several unknown parameters.System identification is a prerequisite to analysis of a dynamic system. One of the most promising novel evolutionary algorithms is the Differential Evolution (DE) for solving global optimization problems. In the study, the DE algorithm is proposed for handling nonlinear constraint functionswith boundary limits of variables to find the best parameters of a servo-hydraulic system with flexible load. The DE guarantees fast speed convergence and accurate solutions regardless the initial conditions of parameters. The control of hydraulic servo-systems has been the focus ofintense research over the past decades. These kinds of systems are nonlinear in nature and generally difficult to control. Since changing system parameters using the same gains will cause overshoot or even loss of system stability. The highly non-linear behaviour of these devices makes them ideal subjects for applying different types of sophisticated controllers. The study is concerned with a second order model reference to positioning control of a flexible load servo-hydraulic system using fuzzy gainscheduling. In the present research, to compensate the lack of dampingin a hydraulic system, an acceleration feedback was used. To compare the results, a pcontroller with feed-forward acceleration and different gains in extension and retraction is used. The design procedure for the controller and experimental results are discussed. The results suggest that using the fuzzy gain-scheduling controller decrease the error of position reference tracking. The second part of research was done on a PermanentMagnet Linear Synchronous Motor (PMLSM). In this study, a recurrent neural network compensator for suppressing mechanical vibration in PMLSM with a flexible load is studied. The linear motor is controlled by a conventional PI velocity controller, and the vibration of the flexible mechanism is suppressed by using a hybrid recurrent neural network. The differential evolution strategy and Kalman filter method are used to avoid the local minimum problem, and estimate the states of system respectively. The proposed control method is firstly designed by using non-linear simulation model built in Matlab Simulink and then implemented in practical test rig. The proposed method works satisfactorily and suppresses the vibration successfully. In the last part of research, a nonlinear load control method is developed and implemented for a PMLSM with a flexible load. The purpose of the controller is to track a flexible load to the desired position reference as fast as possible and without awkward oscillation. The control method is based on an adaptive backstepping algorithm whose stability is ensured by the Lyapunov stability theorem. The states of the system needed in the controller are estimated by using the Kalman filter. The proposed controller is implemented and tested in a linear motor test drive and responses are presented.
Resumo:
The application of forced unsteady-state reactors in case of selective catalytic reduction of nitrogen oxides (NOx) with ammonia (NH3) is sustained by the fact that favorable temperature and composition distributions which cannot be achieved in any steady-state regime can be obtained by means of unsteady-state operations. In a normal way of operation the low exothermicity of the selective catalytic reduction (SCR) reaction (usually carried out in the range of 280-350°C) is not enough to maintain by itself the chemical reaction. A normal mode of operation usually requires supply of supplementary heat increasing in this way the overall process operation cost. Through forced unsteady-state operation, the main advantage that can be obtained when exothermic reactions take place is the possibility of trapping, beside the ammonia, the moving heat wave inside the catalytic bed. The unsteady state-operation enables the exploitation of the thermal storage capacity of the catalyticbed. The catalytic bed acts as a regenerative heat exchanger allowing auto-thermal behaviour when the adiabatic temperature rise is low. Finding the optimum reactor configuration, employing the most suitable operation model and identifying the reactor behavior are highly important steps in order to configure a proper device for industrial applications. The Reverse Flow Reactor (RFR) - a forced unsteady state reactor - corresponds to the above mentioned characteristics and may be employed as an efficient device for the treatment of dilute pollutant mixtures. As a main disadvantage, beside its advantages, the RFR presents the 'wash out' phenomena. This phenomenon represents emissions of unconverted reactants at every switch of the flow direction. As a consequence our attention was focused on finding an alternative reactor configuration for RFR which is not affected by the incontrollable emissions of unconverted reactants. In this respect the Reactor Network (RN) was investigated. Its configuration consists of several reactors connected in a closed sequence, simulating a moving bed by changing the reactants feeding position. In the RN the flow direction is maintained in the same way ensuring uniformcatalyst exploitation and in the same time the 'wash out' phenomena is annulated. The simulated moving bed (SMB) can operate in transient mode giving practically constant exit concentration and high conversion levels. The main advantage of the reactor network operation is emphasizedby the possibility to obtain auto-thermal behavior with nearly uniformcatalyst utilization. However, the reactor network presents only a small range of switching times which allow to reach and to maintain an ignited state. Even so a proper study of the complex behavior of the RN may give the necessary information to overcome all the difficulties that can appear in the RN operation. The unsteady-state reactors complexity arises from the fact that these reactor types are characterized by short contact times and complex interaction between heat and mass transportphenomena. Such complex interactions can give rise to a remarkable complex dynamic behavior characterized by a set of spatial-temporal patterns, chaotic changes in concentration and traveling waves of heat or chemical reactivity. The main efforts of the current research studies concern the improvement of contact modalities between reactants, the possibility of thermal wave storage inside the reactor and the improvement of the kinetic activity of the catalyst used. Paying attention to the above mentioned aspects is important when higher activity even at low feeding temperatures and low emissions of unconverted reactants are the main operation concerns. Also, the prediction of the reactor pseudo or steady-state performance (regarding the conversion, selectivity and thermal behavior) and the dynamicreactor response during exploitation are important aspects in finding the optimal control strategy for the forced unsteady state catalytic tubular reactors. The design of an adapted reactor requires knowledge about the influence of its operating conditions on the overall process performance and a precise evaluation of the operating parameters rage for which a sustained dynamic behavior is obtained. An apriori estimation of the system parameters result in diminution of the computational efforts. Usually the convergence of unsteady state reactor systems requires integration over hundreds of cycles depending on the initial guess of the parameter values. The investigation of various operation models and thermal transfer strategies give reliable means to obtain recuperative and regenerative devices which are capable to maintain an auto-thermal behavior in case of low exothermic reactions. In the present research work a gradual analysis of the SCR of NOx with ammonia process in forced unsteady-state reactors was realized. The investigation covers the presentationof the general problematic related to the effect of noxious emissions in the environment, the analysis of the suitable catalysts types for the process, the mathematical analysis approach for modeling and finding the system solutions and the experimental investigation of the device found to be more suitable for the present process. In order to gain information about the forced unsteady state reactor design, operation, important system parameters and their values, mathematical description, mathematicalmethod for solving systems of partial differential equations and other specific aspects, in a fast and easy way, and a case based reasoning (CBR) approach has been used. This approach, using the experience of past similarproblems and their adapted solutions, may provide a method for gaining informations and solutions for new problems related to the forced unsteady state reactors technology. As a consequence a CBR system was implemented and a corresponding tool was developed. Further on, grooving up the hypothesis of isothermal operation, the investigation by means of numerical simulation of the feasibility of the SCR of NOx with ammonia in the RFRand in the RN with variable feeding position was realized. The hypothesis of non-isothermal operation was taken into account because in our opinion ifa commercial catalyst is considered, is not possible to modify the chemical activity and its adsorptive capacity to improve the operation butis possible to change the operation regime. In order to identify the most suitable device for the unsteady state reduction of NOx with ammonia, considering the perspective of recuperative and regenerative devices, a comparative analysis of the above mentioned two devices performance was realized. The assumption of isothermal conditions in the beginningof the forced unsteadystate investigation allowed the simplification of the analysis enabling to focus on the impact of the conditions and mode of operation on the dynamic features caused by the trapping of one reactant in the reactor, without considering the impact of thermal effect on overall reactor performance. The non-isothermal system approach has been investigated in order to point out the important influence of the thermal effect on overall reactor performance, studying the possibility of RFR and RN utilization as recuperative and regenerative devices and the possibility of achieving a sustained auto-thermal behavior in case of lowexothermic reaction of SCR of NOx with ammonia and low temperature gasfeeding. Beside the influence of the thermal effect, the influence of the principal operating parameters, as switching time, inlet flow rate and initial catalyst temperature have been stressed. This analysis is important not only because it allows a comparison between the two devices and optimisation of the operation, but also the switching time is the main operating parameter. An appropriate choice of this parameter enables the fulfilment of the process constraints. The level of the conversions achieved, the more uniform temperature profiles, the uniformity ofcatalyst exploitation and the much simpler mode of operation imposed the RN as a much more suitable device for SCR of NOx with ammonia, in usual operation and also in the perspective of control strategy implementation. Theoretical simplified models have also been proposed in order to describe the forced unsteady state reactors performance and to estimate their internal temperature and concentration profiles. The general idea was to extend the study of catalytic reactor dynamics taking into account the perspectives that haven't been analyzed yet. The experimental investigation ofRN revealed a good agreement between the data obtained by model simulation and the ones obtained experimentally.
Resumo:
Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.
Resumo:
Sähköisen liiketoiminnan ja mobiliteetin konvergenssi yhdessä teknologisen innovaation kiihtyvän vauhdin kanssa ovat saaneet aikaan kiinnostusta langattomia liiketoimintaratkaisuja kohtaan. Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena oli tutkia sähköisen liiketoiminnan langattomien sovellusten arviointi- ja kehitysprosessia. Työ keskittyy tarkastelemaan paperiteollisuuden toimitusketjun langatonta seurantaa. Tutkimuksessa esitetään langattoman sähköisen liiketoiminnan määritelmä, kuvaillaan langattomuuden eri sovellusalueita ja sovellusten arviointi- ja kehitysprosessin strategisia sekä teknologisia ulottuvuuksia. Työ luo viitekehyksen, jonka avulla tarkastella langattomien teknologioiden merkitystä logistiikassa. Tutkimuksen merkittävin tulos on prosessimalli sovellusten arvioimiseksi ja kehittämiseksi. Mallilla kehitetty langaton sovellus osoittautui tarkastelussa hyödylliseksi toimitusketjun hallinnassa.
Resumo:
This thesis studies properties of transforms based on parabolic scaling, like Curvelet-, Contourlet-, Shearlet- and Hart-Smith-transform. Essentially, two di erent questions are considered: How these transforms can characterize H older regularity and how non-linear approximation of a piecewise smooth function converges. In study of Hölder regularities, several theorems that relate regularity of a function f : R2 → R to decay properties of its transform are presented. Of particular interest is the case where a function has lower regularity along some line segment than elsewhere. Theorems that give estimates for direction and location of this line, and regularity of the function are presented. Numerical demonstrations suggest also that similar theorems would hold for more general shape of segment of low regularity. Theorems related to uniform and pointwise Hölder regularity are presented as well. Although none of the theorems presented give full characterization of regularity, the su cient and necessary conditions are very similar. Another theme of the thesis is the study of convergence of non-linear M ─term approximation of functions that have discontinuous on some curves and otherwise are smooth. With particular smoothness assumptions, it is well known that squared L2 approximation error is O(M-2(logM)3) for curvelet, shearlet or contourlet bases. Here it is shown that assuming higher smoothness properties, the log-factor can be removed, even if the function still is discontinuous.
Resumo:
Aktörer inom telekommunikationsbranschen i Finland har genomgått en intensiv förändring under de senaste 25 åren, från 1980-talets självständiga företag till företag beroende av varandra, och även av aktörer inom närliggande branscher. I dag skapas telekommunikationsmarknaden inte endast av operatörerna, utan också av mediebolag (t.ex. MTV Media) och IT-företag (t.ex. TietoEnator). Gränserna mellan olika industrier håller därmed på att suddas ut - ett fenomen som allmänt benämns som teknologisk konvergens. Konvergens innebär att någonting integreras; det kan handla om t.ex. teknologier (telefoni och Internet), företag (AOL och Time Warner), industrier (telekom, media och IT-branscherna), tjänster (mobilt TV), produkter (PDA) osv. Detta innebär att ytterst få telekomaktörer ensamma kan vidareutveckla marknaden och tekniska lösningar. Samarbete mellan aktörer krävs; mobiltelefontillverkare, innehållsproducenter, operatörer osv. bör intesifiera sitt samarbete för att kunna erbjuda attraktiva tjänster och produkter till kunder och slutanvändare. Avhandlingen fokuserar speciellt på affärsnätverk och samarbetsmönster mellan nätverksaktörer som medel för att få tillgång till resurser som krävs i en konvergenskarakteriserad affärsomgivning. Avhandlingen lyfter fram vad den teknologiska konvergensen har inneburit för telekomaktörer, dvs. att företag tvingats förändra sina strategier och verksamhetsmodeller. För många företag i branschen har anpassningen till konvergenstänkande varit utmanande, och i vissa fall kan man till och med tala om att företagen upplevt en identitetskris. Den utförda forskningen visar att konvergens uppfattas på marknaden som en pågående förändringsprocess, där varje telekomaktör är tvungen att utvärdera sin roll och position i relation till andra aktörer inom branschen. Konvergensprocesser forsätter i framtiden med ökad intensitet. Aktörerna skapar medvetet sin omgivning genom att agera i olika roller, som kan sträcka sig över industrigränser. Avhandlingen påvisar även att externa händelser och industrikontexten påverkar dynamiken i ett affärsnätverk.
Resumo:
Military conscription and peacetime military service were the subjects of heated political, social and cultural controversies during the early years of national independence in Finland. Both the critics and the supporters of the existing military system described it as strongly formative of young men’s physical and moral development into adult men and male citizens. The conflicts over conscription prompted the contemporaries to express their notions about what Finnish men were like, at their best and at their worst, and what should and could be done about it. This thesis studies military conscription as an arena for the “making of manhood” in peacetime Finnish society, 1918–1939. It examines a range of public images of conscripted soldiering, asking how soldiering was depicted and given gendered meanings in parliamentary debates, war hero myths, texts concerned with the military and civic education of conscripts, as well as in works of fiction and reminiscences about military training as a personal experience. Studying conscription with a focus on masculinity, the thesis explores the different cultural images of manliness, soldiering and male citizenship on offer in Finnish society. It investigates how political parties, officers, educators, journalists, writers and “ordinary” conscripts used and developed, embraced or rejected these notions, according to their political purposes or personal needs. The period between the two world wars can be described as a fast-forward into military modernity in Finland. In the process, European middle class gender ideologies clashed with Finnish agrarian masculinities. Nationalistic agendas for the militarisation of Finnish manhood stumbled against intense class conflicts and ideological resistance. Military propaganda used images of military heroism, civic virtue and individual success to persuade the conscripts into ways of thinking and acting that were shaped by bourgeois mentality, nationalistic ideology and religious morality. These images are further analysed as expressive of the personal experiences and emotions of their middle-aged, male authors. The efforts of these military educators were, however, actively resisted on many fronts, ranging from rural working class masculinities among the conscripted young men to ideological critiques of the standing army system in parliament. In narratives about military training, masculinity was depicted as both strengthened and contradicted by the harsh and even brutal practices of interwar Finnish military training. The study represents a combination of new military history and the historical study of men and masculinities. It approaches masculinity as a contested and highly political form of social and cultural knowledge that is actively and selectively used by historic actors. Instead of trying to identify a dominant or “hegemonic” form of masculinity within a pre-determined theoretical structure, this study examines how the meanings ascribed to manhood varied according to class, age, political ideology and social situation. The interwar period in Finland can be understood as a period of contest between different notions of militarised masculinity, yet to judge by the materials studied, there was no clear winning party in that contest. A gradual movement from an atmosphere of conflict surrounding conscription towards political and cultural compromises can be discerned, yet this convergence was incomplete and many division lines remained.
Resumo:
The Department of French Studies of the University of Turku (Finland) organized an International Bilingual Conference on Crosscultural and Crosslinguistic Perspectives on Academic Discourse from 2022 May 2005. The event hosted specialists on Academic Discourse from Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, and the USA. This book is the first volume in our series of publications on Academic Discourse (AD hereafter). The following pages are composed of selected papers from the conference and focus on different aspects and analytical frameworks of Academic Discourse. One of the motivations behind organizing the conference was to examine and expand research on AD in different languages. Another one was to question to what extent academic genres are culturebound and language specific or primarily field or domain specific. The research carried out on AD has been mainly concerned with the use of English in different academic settings for a long time now – mainly written contexts – and at the expense of other languages. Alternatively the academic genre conventions of English and English speaking world have served as a basis for comparison with other languages and cultures. We consider this first volume to be a strong contribution to the spreading out of researches based on other languages than English in AD, namely Finnish, French, Italian, Norwegian and Romanian in this book. All the following articles have a strong link with the French language: either French is constitutive of the AD corpora under examination or the article was written in French. The structure of the book suggests and provides evidence that the concept of AD is understood and tackled to varying degrees by different scholars. Our first volume opens up the discussion on what AD is and backs dissemination, overlapping and expansion of current research questions and methodologies. The book is divided into three parts and contains four articles in English and six articles in French. The papers in part one and part two cover what we call the prototypical genre of written AD, i.e. the research article. Part one follows up on issues linked to the 13 Research Article (RA hereafter). Kjersti Fløttum asks wether a typical RA exists and concentrates on authors’ voices in RA (self and other dimensions), whereas Didriksen and Gjesdal’s article focuses on individual variation of the author’s voice in RA. The last article in this section is by Nadine Rentel and deals with evaluation in the writing of RA. Part two concentrates on the teaching and learning of AD within foreign language learning, another more or less canonical genre of AD. Two aspects of writing are covered in the first two articles: foreign students’ representations on rhetorical traditions (Hidden) and a contrastive assessment of written exercices in French and Finnish in Higher Education (Suzanne). The last contribution in this section on AD moves away from traditional written forms and looks at how argumentation is constructed in students’ oral presentations (Dervin and Fauveau). The last part of the book continues the extension by featuring four articles written in French exploring institutional and scientific discourses. Institutional discourses under scrutiny include the European Bologna Process (Galatanu) and Romanian reform texts (Moilanen). As for scientific discourses, the next paper in this section deconstructs an ideological discourse on the didactics of French as a foreign language (Pescheux). Finally, the last paper in part three reflects on varied forms of AD at university (Defays). We hope that this book will add some fuel to continue discussing diverse forms of and approches to AD – in different languages and voices! No need to say that with the current upsurge in academic mobility, reflecting on crosscultural and crosslinguistic AD has just but started.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.
Resumo:
This dissertation explores the complicated relations between Estonian, Latvian, and Lithuanian postwar refugees and American foreign policymakers between 1948 and 1960. There were seemingly shared interests between the parties during the first decade of the Cold War. Generally, Eastern European refugees refused to recognize Soviet hegemony in their homelands, and American policy towards the Soviet bloc during the Truman and Eisenhower administrations sought to undermine the Kremlin’s standing in the region. More specifically, Baltic refugees and State Department officials sought to preserve the 1940 non-recognition policy towards the Soviet annexation of the Baltic States. I propose that despite the seemingly natural convergence of interests, the American experiment of constructing a State-Private network revolving around fostering relations with exile groups was fraught with difficulties. These difficulties ultimately undermined any ability that the United States might have had to liberate the Baltic States from the Soviet Union. As this dissertation demonstrates, Baltic exiles were primarily concerned with preserving a high level of political continuity to the interwar republics under the assumption that they would be able to regain their positions in liberated, democratic societies. American policymakers, however, were primarily concerned with maintaining the non-recognition policy, the framework in which all policy considerations were analyzed. I argue that these two motivating factors created unnecessary tensions in American policy towards the Baltic republics in the spheres of psychological warfare as well as exile unity in the United States and Europe. Despite these shortcomings, I argue that out of the exiles’ failings was born a generation of Baltic constituents that blurred the political legitimacy line between exiles who sought to return home and ethnic Americans who were loyal to the United States. These Baltic constituents played an important role in garnering the support of the United States Congress, starting in the 1950s, but became increasingly influential after the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, despite the seemingly less important role Eastern Europe played in the Cold War. The actions of the Baltic constituents not only prevented the Baltic question from being forever lost in the memory hole of history, but actually created enough political pressure on the State Department that it was impossible to alter the long-standing policy of not recognizing the Soviet annexation of the Baltic States.
Resumo:
Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014