A cyber security architecture for military networks using a cognitive network approach

Cyber security is one of the main topics that are discussed around the world today. The threat is real, and it is unlikely to diminish. People, business, governments, and even armed forces are networked in a way or another. Thus, the cyber threat is also facing military networking. On the other hand, the concept of Network Centric Warfare sets high requirements for military tactical data communications and security. A challenging networking environment and cyber threats force us to consider new approaches to build security on the military communication systems. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a cyber security architecture for military networks, and to evaluate the designed architecture. The architecture is described as a technical functionality. As a new approach, the thesis introduces Cognitive Networks (CN) which are a theoretical concept to build more intelligent, dynamic and even secure communication networks. The cognitive networks are capable of observe the networking environment, make decisions for optimal performance and adapt its system parameter according to the decisions. As a result, the thesis presents a five-layer cyber security architecture that consists of security elements controlled by a cognitive process. The proposed architecture includes the infrastructure, services and application layers that are managed and controlled by the cognitive and management layers. The architecture defines the tasks of the security elements at a functional level without introducing any new protocols or algorithms. For evaluating two separated method were used. The first method is based on the SABSA framework that uses a layered approach to analyze overall security of an organization. The second method was a scenario based method in which a risk severity level is calculated. The evaluation results show that the proposed architecture fulfills the security requirements at least at a high level. However, the evaluation of the proposed architecture proved to be very challenging. Thus, the evaluation results must be considered very critically. The thesis proves the cognitive networks are a promising approach, and they provide lots of benefits when designing a cyber security architecture for the tactical military networks. However, many implementation problems exist, and several details must be considered and studied during the future work.

An IP capable data link layer protocol for narrow band half-duplex packet data radio networks

The wide adaptation of Internet Protocol (IP) as de facto protocol for most communication networks has established a need for developing IP capable data link layer protocol solutions for Machine to machine (M2M) and Internet of Things (IoT) networks. However, the wireless networks used for M2M and IoT applications usually lack the resources commonly associated with modern wireless communication networks. The existing IP capable data link layer solutions for wireless IoT networks provide the necessary overhead minimising and frame optimising features, but are often built to be compatible only with IPv6 and specific radio platforms. The objective of this thesis is to design IPv4 compatible data link layer for Netcontrol Oy's narrow band half-duplex packet data radio system. Based on extensive literature research, system modelling and solution concept testing, this thesis proposes the usage of tunslip protocol as the basis for the system data link layer protocol development. In addition to the functionality of tunslip, this thesis discusses the additional network, routing, compression, security and collision avoidance changes required to be made to the radio platform in order for it to be IP compatible while still being able to maintain the point-to-multipoint and multi-hop network characteristics. The data link layer design consists of the radio application, dynamic Maximum Transmission Unit (MTU) optimisation daemon and the tunslip interface. The proposed design uses tunslip for creating an IP capable data link protocol interface. The radio application receives data from tunslip and compresses the packets and uses the IP addressing information for radio network addressing and routing before forwarding the message to radio network. The dynamic MTU size optimisation daemon controls the tunslip interface maximum MTU size according to the link quality assessment calculated from the radio network diagnostic data received from the radio application. For determining the usability of tunslip as the basis for data link layer protocol, testing of the tunslip interface is conducted with both IEEE 802.15.4 radios and packet data radios. The test cases measure the radio network usability for User Datagram Protocol (UDP) based applications without applying any header or content compression. The test results for the packet data radios reveal that the typical success rate for packet reception through a single-hop link is above 99% with a round-trip-delay of 0.315s for 63B packets.

Performance Management of a Next Generation Network

Today's communication networks consist of numerous interdependent network components. To manage these networks and to ensure their reliable and efficient operation to meet the increasing customer usability demands, extensive network management tools are required from the service provider. The goal of this study was to adapt the Next Generation Network (NGN) providing VoIP services within a performance oriented network management system. This study focuses only on NGN network and the project was implemented as an assignment of the Network Operations Center of Elisa Corporation. The theoretical part of this study introduces the network environment of the Elisa NGN platform: its components and used signalling protocols as well as other exploitable communication protocols. In addition, the Simple Network Management Protocol (SNMP) is closely examined since it is commonly used as the basis of IP (Internet Protocol) network management. Also some primary applications enabled by the NGN technology are introduced. The empirical part of this study contains a short overview of the implemented network performance management system and its properties. The most crucial monitored MIB modules, SNMP parameters and implemented performance measurements are described. The trap topology and the role of the traps for management of the NGN platform are considered and finally, the conclusion based on the several disquisitions is made supported with suggestions for future improvements.

Globaali tietoliikenneverkkojen palvelutuotanto metsäteollisuuden yrityksessä

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tuottaa malli globaalin tietoliikenneverkkojen palvelutuotannon toteuttamiseksi metsäteollisuuden yrityksessä. Pääongelmana on selvittää miten tietoliikenneverkkojen palvelutuotanto on toteutettava ottaen huomioon tarvittavat toimijat, kustannustehokkuus ja tiedonhallinta. Ongelmaa lähestyttiin IT- johtamisen, ulkoistamisen, yhteistyöverkostojen, prosessien, yhteisten työkalujen ja standardoinnin näkökulmista. Yrityksen tietoliikenneverkkojen nykytilaa ja tavoitetilaa tutkittiin laadullisella kyselytutkimuksella. Tutkimuksen perusteella päädyttiin malliin, jossa tietoliikenneverkkojen palvelutuotannon laadukkuuteen ja tehokkuuteen vaikuttavat oleellisesti toimijat, yhteiset työkalut, standardointi kaikilla tasoilla ja harkittu ja laskelmoitu ulkoistaminen. Keskeiseen rooliin nousivat standardit prosessit ja niitä tukevat yhteiset työkalut, jotka on toteutettu keskitetysti ja kriittisten osien osalta myös paikallisesti. Prosessien ja työkalujen tulee tukea tiedonhallintaa luonnollisena osana päivittäistä toimintaa. Toimijoiden rajapinnat on oltava yksiselitteisesti määritelty ja toimijoiden välillä on kyettävä kommunikoimaan yhteisillä työkaluilla ja jakamaan tietoa avoimesti.

Mistä on hyvät tytöt tehty? Somalitytöt ja maineen merkitykset

Tutkimus käsittelee islaminuskoisten somalityttöjen hyvään ja huonoon maineeseen liittyviä uskonnollisia, kulttuurisia ja etnisiä määrittelyjä ja niiden merkityksiä heidän arjessaan. Turussa hankittu etnografinen tutkimusaineisto koostuu osallistuvaan havainnointiin perustuvasta kenttäpäiväkirja-aineistosta sekä kahdestakymmenestäviidestä 17‒35-vuotiaiden somalityttöjen ja -naisten teemahaastattelusta vuosilta 2003–2006. Tutkimuksen tehtävänä on selvittää, minkälaista somalityttöä pidetään maineeltaan hyvänä ja miten tytön maine voi mennä. Tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan yhtäältä sitä, mikä merkitys sosiaalisilla verkostoilla on tyttöjen maineen määrittelyssä. Toisaalta kysytään, mitä somalitytöt ja nuoret naiset itse ajattelevat tytön maineeseen liittyvistä odotuksista ja miten he niistä tietoisina toimivat. Lähestymistapa rakentuu uskontotieteen, antropologian, sukupuolentutkimuksen, tyttötutkimuksen, nuorisotutkimuksen ja kulttuurimaantieteen näkökulmia yhdistelemällä. Ensimmäisessä aineistontulkintaluvussa tarkastellaan tyttöyteen ja maineen rakentumiseen liittyvää ruumiillista merkityksenantoa pukeutumisen, seksuaalisuuden, tyttöjen ympärileikkausta koskevan asennemuutoksen ja seurustelun teemojen kautta. Toisessa luvussa keskitytään kaupunkitilan ja tyttöjen vapaa-ajanvieton sosiotilallisiin tulkintoihin sekä tyttöjen käytöstä kodin ulkopuolella määritteleviin ja mainetta rakentaviin puheisiin. Haastatellut arvostivat islamiin ja somaliperinteeseen liittyviä arvoja ja pitivät niitä oman käytöksensä ohjenuorina. Omanarvontunto, itsekontrolli ja vastuuntunto omista teoista liitettiin ”hyvään tyttöyteen”. Tyttöjen toimijuus ilmeni heihin kohdistuvien odotusten suuntaisena käyttäytymisenä ja näiden ihanteiden arvostamisena. Toimijuus näkyi myös tiettyjen tyttöihin ja poikiin kohdistuvien erilaisten odotusten kyseenalaistamisena ja joissakin tapauksissa vastoin odotuksia toimimisena. Turkua myös verrattiin somalityttöjen käytöksen osalta pääkaupunkiseutuun. Tässä vertailussa Turku nimettiin kulttuurisen jatkuvuuden, pääkaupunkiseutu kulttuurisen muutoksen paikaksi. Haastateltujen mukaan yhteisöllisiä tulkintoja tyttöjen käytöksestä tehtiin puheissa ja juoruissa, usein suhteessa havaintoihin suomalaistyttöjen käytöksestä. Tyttöjen arkeen nämä etniset ja moraaliset eroteot eivät kuitenkaan vaikuttaneet aina samalla tavoin, koska tulkinnat tyttärille sopivasta ja mahdollisesta käytöksestä voivat vaihdella perheiden välillä. Tutkimus tuo esille, että tytön hyvä maine on eräs perheen hyvinvointiin vaikuttavista tekijöistä. Somalityttöjen käytös on myös eräs yhteisöllinen peili, jota vasten tehdään laajempia tulkintoja somalikulttuurin ja uskonnollisten arvojen tilasta diasporassa. Liiallinen muutos tyttöjen käyttäytymisessä uhkasi yhteisöllistä jatkuvuutta ja uskonnolliskulttuuristen arvojen välittymistä seuraaville sukupolville. Laajasti ymmärrettynä ”hyvä tyttöys” ja hyvä maine oli onnistuneen kulttuurisen neuvottelun tulosta diasporassa. Se tarkoitti, että tyttö kiinnittyi somalialaiseen taustaansa ja sen välittämiin arvoihin, osallistuen samalla kuitenkin myös suomalaiseen yhteiskuntaan.

Communication Solutions for LVDC Island Networks

Production and generation of electrical power is evolving to more environmental friendly technologies and schemes. Pushed by the increasing cost of fossil fuels, the operational costs of producing electrical power with fossil fuels and the effect in the environment, like pollution and global warming, renewable energy sources gain con-stant impulse into the global energy economy. In consequence, the introduction of distributed energy sources has brought a new complexity to the electrical networks. In the new concept of smart grids and decen-tralized power generation; control, protection and measurement are also distributed and requiring, among other things, a new scheme of communication to operate with each other in balance and improve performance. In this research, an analysis of different communication technologies (power line communication, Ethernet over unshielded twisted pair (UTP), optic fiber, Wi-Fi, Wi-MAX, and Long Term Evolution) and their respective characteristics will be carried out. With the objective of pointing out strengths and weaknesses from different points of view (technical, economical, deployment, etc.) to establish a richer context on which a decision for communication approach can be done depending on the specific application scenario of a new smart grid deployment. As a result, a description of possible optimal deployment solutions for communication will be shown considering different options for technologies, and a mention of different important considerations to be taken into account will be made for some of the possible network implementation scenarios.

Mobility Management in Packet Switched Mobile Networks

Nykyisin matkaviestinverkot ovat osa jokapäiväistä elämää. Merkittävimpiä eroja kiinteiden ja matkaviestinverkkojen välillä on käyttäjän liikkuvuus, joka voidaan määritellä mahdollisuudeksi soittaa ja vastaanottaa puheluita missä ja milloin tahansa. Työ selittää termin liikkuvuus ja määrittää ongelmat, jotka täytyy ratkaista liikkuvuuden aikaansaamiseksi sekä tavat, joilla nämä ongelmat on ratkaistu matkaviestinverkoissa. Työ luo yleiskatsauksen liikkuvuuden aikaansaamisessa käytettäviin menetelmiin, joita ovat haku, sijainnin päivitys, sijainnin seuranta ja kanavan vaihto. Työ keskittyy liikkuvuuteen kolmannen sukupolven matkaviestinverkkojen paketti-kytkentäisessä osassa, esimerkkinä liikkuvuuden hallinta UMTS:ssa (Universal Mobile Telecommunications System). Erot paketti- ja piirikytkentäisen osan välillä tuodaan esille ja selitetään. Jotta käyttäjät ja heidän päätteensä voisivat liikkua, tiedon täytyy kulkea verkon eri osien välillä. Merkinanto verkkoelementtien välillä ja liikkuvuuden mahdollistavien toimenpiteiden suoritus tehdään yhteyskäytännön avulla. Työ kuvaa yhteyskäytännöt, jotka ovat osallisena liikkuvuuden tarjontaan. Painopiste on GPRS:n liikkuvuuden-hallintayhteyskäytännössä, GMM:ssä. GMM protokollan prototyypin toteutus on esitetty työn käytännön osassa.

Business potential evaluation of wireless local area networks: Teleoperator’s view

The objective of the thesis was to evaluate business potential of wireless local area networks (WLAN, Wireless LAN). At first, the scope of business potential evaluation of technology was introduced. Next, a general framework of business potential evaluation of technology based on literature was presented. In addition, convergence of cellular networks and data networks was studied in order to get an insight of current situation of mobile telecommunications industry. Finally, wireless local area networks business potential was evaluated. A wireless local area network is a data communication system, which combines data connectivity with mobility and is implemented in unlicensed frequency bands, allowing new business opportunities to emerge. The main markets of WLAN are corporate networks, public area networks and access networks. At the moment the penetration of WLAN terminals is low which derives to low demand of wireless LAN services. In addition, unlicensed spectrum forces the teleoperators to set the service price relatively low. The business potential is in integrating wireless LANs to cellular networks and in offering value added services to end users. The future of wireless LAN is to be complementary network to cellular networks. In this vision cellular networks provide voice and low data services and broadband wireless networks enable multimedia services.

Intercultural business communication between Arabs of the United Arab Emirates and Finns

Kun kauppaa käydään eri maanosien välillä, törmätään vieraisiin kulttuureihin ja erilaisiin kaupankäyntitapoihin. Tämä tutkimus keskittyy suomalaisten liikemiesten ja - naisten työhön Yhdistyneissä Arabiemiraateissa kulttuurierojen näkökulmasta. Tavoitteena on kuvata kulttuurierojen vaikutuksia kaupankäyntiprosessiin ja löytää niitä ongelmia, joita tämän prosessin aikana kohdataan. Tavoitteena on tuottaa tietoa, jonka avulla kulttuurieroista johtuvia ongelmia voidaan vähentää tulevaisuudessa. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen tausta perustuu Hofsteden kulttuurista vaihtelua kuvaaviin dimensioihin ja Ting Toomeyn kulttuurisen identiteetin neuvotteluprosessin malliin. Näihin malleihin perustuen luotiin tähän tutkimukseen oma kulttuurien välisen kohtaamisen malli. Tutkimusongelmia ovat: 1) Miten suomalaiset liikemiehet kuvailevat arabien kaupantekokulttuuria? Kuinka vastapuoli kuvailee omaa kaupantekokulttuuriaan? 2) Minkälainen on suomalaisten ja arabien välinen kaupankäyntiprosessi? 3) Minkälaisia ongelmia kohdataan tehtäessä kauppaa suomalaisten ja arabien kesken? Tutkimus on etnografinen, laadullinen haastattelututkimus (n=12). Haastattelut tehtiin suurimmaksi osaksi Yhdistyneissä Arabiemiraateissa, osin Suomessa. Erilainen kulttuuritausta näkyy kaupankäynnissä. Kollektivistinen, maskuliininen, islamilaisen uskontoon ja vain vähäisessä määrin suoraan kielelliseen koodistoon perustuva kulttuuri heijastuu kaupankäyntiprosessiin. Ystävyyden ja sukulaisten sekä muiden verkostojen merkitys korostuu. Ruumiin kieleen, ilmeisiin ja eleisiin liittyvä kommunikaatio on erilaista ja voi aiheuttaa väärinkäsityksiä. Myös aikakäsitys ja sopimuskäytäntö poikkeavat suomalaisesta. Kaikki nämä voivat aiheuttaa ongelmia kaupankäyntiprosessissa. Tärkeimmiksi tekijöiksi ongelmien kohtaamisessa nousivat ammattitaidon lisäksi kärsivällisyys ja joustavuus. Ongelmia voidaan vähentää huolellisella valmistautumisella ennen ulkomaille lähtöä. Toinen tapa on jatkuviin työkokemuksiin perustuen oppia paikallista kulttuuria ja sen piirteitä.

On Fault Tolerance Methods for Networks-on-Chip

Technology scaling has proceeded into dimensions in which the reliability of manufactured devices is becoming endangered. The reliability decrease is a consequence of physical limitations, relative increase of variations, and decreasing noise margins, among others. A promising solution for bringing the reliability of circuits back to a desired level is the use of design methods which introduce tolerance against possible faults in an integrated circuit. This thesis studies and presents fault tolerance methods for network-onchip (NoC) which is a design paradigm targeted for very large systems-onchip. In a NoC resources, such as processors and memories, are connected to a communication network; comparable to the Internet. Fault tolerance in such a system can be achieved at many abstraction levels. The thesis studies the origin of faults in modern technologies and explains the classification to transient, intermittent and permanent faults. A survey of fault tolerance methods is presented to demonstrate the diversity of available methods. Networks-on-chip are approached by exploring their main design choices: the selection of a topology, routing protocol, and flow control method. Fault tolerance methods for NoCs are studied at different layers of the OSI reference model. The data link layer provides a reliable communication link over a physical channel. Error control coding is an efficient fault tolerance method especially against transient faults at this abstraction level. Error control coding methods suitable for on-chip communication are studied and their implementations presented. Error control coding loses its effectiveness in the presence of intermittent and permanent faults. Therefore, other solutions against them are presented. The introduction of spare wires and split transmissions are shown to provide good tolerance against intermittent and permanent errors and their combination to error control coding is illustrated. At the network layer positioned above the data link layer, fault tolerance can be achieved with the design of fault tolerant network topologies and routing algorithms. Both of these approaches are presented in the thesis together with realizations in the both categories. The thesis concludes that an optimal fault tolerance solution contains carefully co-designed elements from different abstraction levels

Future vision of information networks according to EU 7th framework

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate projects funded in European 7th framework Information and Communication Technology- work programme. The research has been limited to issue ”Pervasive and trusted network and service infrastructure” and the aim is to find out which are the most important topics into which research will concentrate in the future. The thesis will provide important information for the Department of Information Technology in Lappeenranta University of Technology. First in this thesis will be investigated what are the requirements for the projects which were funded in “Pervasive and trusted network and service infrastructure” – programme 2007. Second the projects funded according to “Pervasive and trusted network and service infrastructure”-programme will be listed in to tables and the most important keywords will be gathered. Finally according to the keyword appearances the vision of the most important future topics will be defined. According to keyword-analysis the wireless networks are in important role in the future and core networks will be implemented with fiber technology to ensure fast data transfer. Software development favors Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) and open source solutions. The interoperability and ensuring the privacy are in key role in the future. 3D in all forms and content delivery are important topics as well. When all the projects were compared, the most important issue was discovered to be SOA which leads the way to cloud computing.

Carbon footprint as part of a company’s external environmental communication

The aim of this thesis was to find out how the carbon footprint calculations can be utilized in the company’s external environmental communication, what is the demand for carbon footprint from the market, and how the other actors in the forest industry have approached the issue. The aim was to recognize the best practises to communicate carbon footprints and to find possibilities to extend the UPM-Kymmene Wood Oy’s mill specific carbon footprints. This research included a literature review, an inquiry to the UPM-Kymmene Wood Oy’s sales offices, and Internet survey concerning the external environmental communication in the forest industry and three small case studies based on mill specific parameters. The inquiry to the sales offices showed that the carbon footprint is not yet a common demand from the customers in the wood product sector. In addition, the Internet survey showed that generally in the forest industry, not much has been done concerning carbon footprint communication so far. The biggest challenge in carbon footprint communication is the variation in the knowledge level of the receivers. In addition btob and btoc communication situations demand a different approach to the issue. Carbon profile brochures developed in the company can be seen as suitable for btob communication situations. Case studies have shown that the contribution of final product transport to the overall carbon footprint was significant. It was recommended to include post mill transport in the carbon footprint information supplied to the btob customers. When discussing environmental communication on a general level it can be stated that a good external environmental communication is based on facts, is open and proactive and takes into account the needs of the receiver. However, the openness and the quality of external environmental communication are essentially strategic decisions. The significance of internal communication as well as the knowhow in the communication and marketing networks play a major role in achieving success in external environmental communication. Carbon footprints are only one part of good balanced external environmental communication. One specific environmental feature like carbon footprint should not be over emphasized to the detriment of other important environmental aspects.

Exploring Adaptive Implementation of On-Chip Networks

As technology geometries have shrunk to the deep submicron regime, the communication delay and power consumption of global interconnections in high performance Multi- Processor Systems-on-Chip (MPSoCs) are becoming a major bottleneck. The Network-on- Chip (NoC) architecture paradigm, based on a modular packet-switched mechanism, can address many of the on-chip communication issues such as performance limitations of long interconnects and integration of large number of Processing Elements (PEs) on a chip. The choice of routing protocol and NoC structure can have a significant impact on performance and power consumption in on-chip networks. In addition, building a high performance, area and energy efficient on-chip network for multicore architectures requires a novel on-chip router allowing a larger network to be integrated on a single die with reduced power consumption. On top of that, network interfaces are employed to decouple computation resources from communication resources, to provide the synchronization between them, and to achieve backward compatibility with existing IP cores. Three adaptive routing algorithms are presented as a part of this thesis. The first presented routing protocol is a congestion-aware adaptive routing algorithm for 2D mesh NoCs which does not support multicast (one-to-many) traffic while the other two protocols are adaptive routing models supporting both unicast (one-to-one) and multicast traffic. A streamlined on-chip router architecture is also presented for avoiding congested areas in 2D mesh NoCs via employing efficient input and output selection. The output selection utilizes an adaptive routing algorithm based on the congestion condition of neighboring routers while the input selection allows packets to be serviced from each input port according to its congestion level. Moreover, in order to increase memory parallelism and bring compatibility with existing IP cores in network-based multiprocessor architectures, adaptive network interface architectures are presented to use multiple SDRAMs which can be accessed simultaneously. In addition, a smart memory controller is integrated in the adaptive network interface to improve the memory utilization and reduce both memory and network latencies. Three Dimensional Integrated Circuits (3D ICs) have been emerging as a viable candidate to achieve better performance and package density as compared to traditional 2D ICs. In addition, combining the benefits of 3D IC and NoC schemes provides a significant performance gain for 3D architectures. In recent years, inter-layer communication across multiple stacked layers (vertical channel) has attracted a lot of interest. In this thesis, a novel adaptive pipeline bus structure is proposed for inter-layer communication to improve the performance by reducing the delay and complexity of traditional bus arbitration. In addition, two mesh-based topologies for 3D architectures are also introduced to mitigate the inter-layer footprint and power dissipation on each layer with a small performance penalty.

Communicative and Anticipatory Decision-Making Supported by Bayesian Networks

The purpose of this research is to draw up a clear construction of an anticipatory communicative decision-making process and a successful implementation of a Bayesian application that can be used as an anticipatory communicative decision-making support system. This study is a decision-oriented and constructive research project, and it includes examples of simulated situations. As a basis for further methodological discussion about different approaches to management research, in this research, a decision-oriented approach is used, which is based on mathematics and logic, and it is intended to develop problem solving methods. The approach is theoretical and characteristic of normative management science research. Also, the approach of this study is constructive. An essential part of the constructive approach is to tie the problem to its solution with theoretical knowledge. Firstly, the basic definitions and behaviours of an anticipatory management and managerial communication are provided. These descriptions include discussions of the research environment and formed management processes. These issues define and explain the background to further research. Secondly, it is processed to managerial communication and anticipatory decision-making based on preparation, problem solution, and solution search, which are also related to risk management analysis. After that, a solution to the decision-making support application is formed, using four different Bayesian methods, as follows: the Bayesian network, the influence diagram, the qualitative probabilistic network, and the time critical dynamic network. The purpose of the discussion is not to discuss different theories but to explain the theories which are being implemented. Finally, an application of Bayesian networks to the research problem is presented. The usefulness of the prepared model in examining a problem and the represented results of research is shown. The theoretical contribution includes definitions and a model of anticipatory decision-making. The main theoretical contribution of this study has been to develop a process for anticipatory decision-making that includes management with communication, problem-solving, and the improvement of knowledge. The practical contribution includes a Bayesian Decision Support Model, which is based on Bayesian influenced diagrams. The main contributions of this research are two developed processes, one for anticipatory decision-making, and the other to produce a model of a Bayesian network for anticipatory decision-making. In summary, this research contributes to decision-making support by being one of the few publicly available academic descriptions of the anticipatory decision support system, by representing a Bayesian model that is grounded on firm theoretical discussion, by publishing algorithms suitable for decision-making support, and by defining the idea of anticipatory decision-making for a parallel version. Finally, according to the results of research, an analysis of anticipatory management for planned decision-making is presented, which is based on observation of environment, analysis of weak signals, and alternatives to creative problem solving and communication.