Modelling Long-Run Relationship between Spot and Future Prices of Different Commodities

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether there exists any kind of relationship between the spot and future prices of the different commodities or not. Commodities like cocoa, coffee, crude oil, gold, natural gas and silver are considered from January 3, 2000 to December 31, 2012. For this purpose, ADF test and KPSS test are used in testing the stationarity whereas Johansen Cointegration test is used in testing the long-run relationship. Johansen co-integration test exhibits that there at least 5 co-integrating pairs out of 6 except crude oil. Moreover, the result of Granger Causality supports the fact that if two or more than two time series tend to be co-integrated there exists either uni-directional or bi-directional relationship. However, our results reveled that although there exists the co-integration between the variable, one might not granger causes another .VAR model is also used to measure the proportion of effects. These findings will help the derivative market and arbitragers in developing the strategies to gain the maximum profit in the financial market.

The Dynamic Relationship between Finnish Stock Market and Commodities

Since different stock markets have become more integrated during 2000s, investors need new asset classes in order to gain diversification benefits. Commodities have become popular to invest in and thus it is important to examine whether the investors should use commodities as a part for portfolio diversification. This master’s thesis examines the dynamic relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities. The methodology is based on Vector Autoregressive models (VAR). The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and commodities is examined with Johansen cointegration while short-run relationship is examined with VAR models and Granger causality test. In addition, impulse response test and forecast error variance decomposition are employed to strengthen the results of short-run relationship. The dynamic relationships might change under different market conditions. Thus, the sample period is divided into two sub-samples in order to reveal whether the dynamic relationship varies under different market conditions. The results show that Finnish stock market has stable long-run relationship with industrial metals, indicating that there would not be diversification benefits among the industrial metals. The long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and energy commodities is not as stable as the long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and industrial metals. Long-run relationship was found in the full sample period and first sub-sample which indicate less room for diversification. However, the long-run relationship disappeared in the second sub-sample which indicates diversification benefits. Long-run relationship between Finnish stock market and agricultural commodities was not found in the full sample period which indicates diversification benefits between the variables. However, long-run relationship was found from both sub-samples. The best diversification benefits would be achieved if investor invested in precious metals. No long-run relationship was found from either sample. In the full sample period OMX Helsinki had short-run relationship with most of the energy commodities and industrial metals and the causality was mostly running from equities to commodities. During the first sub period the number of short-run relationships and causality shrunk but during the crisis period the number of short-run relationships and causality increased. The most notable result found was unidirectional causality from gold to OMX Helsinki during the crisis period.

Determinants of the price of allowance in the European Union emissions trading market

Teorian mukaan täydellisen kilpailun päästöoikeuskauppamarkkinoilla päästöoikeuden hinta muodostuu markkinoilla vallitsevan päästöjen vähentämisen rajakustannuksen perusteella. Euroopan päästökauppamarkkinoilla päästöjen vähentämisen kustannuksia nostavat suhteellisen lyhyet päästökauppajaksot ja epävarmuus järjestelmän jatkuvuudesta. Toisaalta päästökaupan osallistujien yhteenlaskettu päästöjen vähentämisen tarve lienee suhteellisen vähäinen ellei olematon ensimmäisellä päästökauppajaksolla. Euroopan päästökauppamarkkinoilla päästöjen vähentämisen tarve ja päästöjenvähentämisen kustannukset ovat osittain riippuvaisia muuttuvista tekijöistä. Päästöoikeuden hintaan voivat vaikuttaa päästökauppajakson aikana tapahtuva teollisuuden suhdannevaihtelu, polttoaineiden hintojen heilahtelut sekä säätilojen vaihtelu. Päästökaupan ensimmäisinä kuukausina päästöoikeuden hintakehityksellä on ollut yhteyksiä tekijöihin, joiden muutosten tulisikin vaikuttaa päästökauppamarkkinoiden tasapainoon. Näitä tekijöitä ovat esimerkiksi polttoainemarkkinoiden ja sähkömarkkinoiden hintakehitys sekä vaihtelut säätiloissa.

Analysis of outliers in electricity spot prices with exampleof New England and New Zealand markets

Electricity spot prices have always been a demanding data set for time series analysis, mostly because of the non-storability of electricity. This feature, making electric power unlike the other commodities, causes outstanding price spikes. Moreover, the last several years in financial world seem to show that ’spiky’ behaviour of time series is no longer an exception, but rather a regular phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to seek patterns and relations within electricity price outliers and verify how they affect the overall statistics of the data. For the study techniques like classical Box-Jenkins approach, series DFT smoothing and GARCH models are used. The results obtained for two geographically different price series show that patterns in outliers’ occurrence are not straightforward. Additionally, there seems to be no rule that would predict the appearance of a spike from volatility, while the reverse effect is quite prominent. It is concluded that spikes cannot be predicted based only on the price series; probably some geographical and meteorological variables need to be included in modeling.

Commodity Price Driven Risk Management from Viewpoint of High Grade Steel Alloys

The study of price risk management concerning high grade steel alloys and their components was conducted. This study was focused in metal commodities, of which nickel, chrome and molybdenum were in a central role. Also possible hedging instruments and strategies for referred metals were studied. In the literature part main themes are price formation of Ni, Cr and Mo, the functioning of metal exchanges and main hedging instruments for metal commodities. This section also covers how micro and macro variables may affect metal prices from the viewpoint of short as well as longer time period. The experimental part consists of three sections. In the first part, multiple regression model with seven explanatory variables was constructed to describe price behavior of nickel. Results were compared after this with information created with comparable simple regression model. Additionally, long time mean price reversion of nickel was studied. In the second part, theoretical price of CF8M alloy was studied by using nickel, ferro-chrome and ferro-molybdenum as explanatory variables. In the last section, cross hedging possibilities for illiquid FeCr -metal was studied with five LME futures. Also this section covers new information concerning possible forthcoming molybdenum future contracts as well. The results of this study confirm, that linear regression models which are based on the assumption of market rationality, are not able to reliably describe price development of metals at issue. Models fulfilling assumptions for linear regression may though include useful information of statistical significant variables which have effect on metal prices. According to the experimental part, short futures were found to incorporate the most accurate information concerning the price movements in the future. However, not even 3M futures were able to predict turning point in the market before the faced slump. Cross hedging seemed to be very doubtful risk management strategy for illiquid metals, because correlations coefficients were found to be very sensitive for the chosen time span.

Raaka-ainemarkkinoiden epävakaisuus hankinnan haasteena

Tässä pro gradu -tutkielmassa tutustutaan raaka-ainemarkkinoiden ominaispiirteisiin. Tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää, minkälaiset tekijät vaikuttavat raaka-aineiden saatavuuteen ja hintoihin lyhyellä ja pidemmällä aikajänteellä. Lisäksi tavoitteena on tunnistaa teollisuuden kannalta olennaiset raaka-aineiden hankinnoissa kohdattavat haasteet, ja etsiä keinoja, joilla vallitsevaa epävarmuutta voidaan hallita. Tutkielman tarkoituksena on antaa monipuolisten empiiristen esimerkkien avulla ajattelun aihetta raaka-ainemarkkinoiden syy- ja seuraussuhteista. Työssä on raaka-aineita hankkivan ja niitä omassa liiketoiminnassaan hyödyntävän teollisuuden näkökulma. Työn keskeisenä tuloksena on tarkistuslistan kaltainen kysymysjoukko organisaation raaka-ainehankintoihin liittyvän riskin määrittämisen tueksi.

Teknisen analyysin hyödynnettävyys hyödykefutuurimarkkinoilla

Tutkielman tavoitteena on tarkastella teknisen analyysin hyödynnettävyyttä hyödykefutuurimarkkinoilla. Tutkielmassa pyritään selvittämään, onko teknisen analyysin eri menetelmien mukaan ajoitetuilla hyödykefutuurien osto- ja myyntitoimeksiannoilla mahdollista ylittää toisaalta passiivisen indeksisijoittamisen ja toisaalta osta ja pidä -strategian tuottotaso sekä työssä analysoimaan saatujen tulosten syitä. Tutkimusaineisto sisältää 25 eri hyödykkeen futuuriaikasarjat vuosilta 2000 - 2010. Historiallisiin kurssitietoihin pohjautuen muodostettiin seitsemän sijoitusstrategiaa ja yhteensä 21 eri menetelmävariaatiota, joiden suoriutumista tutkittiin yksittäisten hyödykefutuurien osalta sekä hyödykefutuuriportfolioina. Tulokset osoittivat, että tekniseen analyysiin perustuvilla hyödykefutuuri-strategioilla on ollut mahdollista saavuttaa merkittävää hajautushyötyä. Lisäksi aktiivisten kaupankäynti¬strategioiden tuotot ylittivät sekä passiivis-ten markkinaindeksien että osta ja pidä -strategian tuottotason. Strategioi-den kannattavuuden havaittiin korreloivan positiivisesti ja tilastollisesti merkitsevästi tutkimuksessa analysoitujen tuottoaikasarjojen autokorreloituneisuusasteen kanssa, mutta käänteisesti ja merkitsevästi eri menetelmävariaatioiden synnyttämien kaupankäynti¬signaalien määrän kanssa.

Risk Parity: A Modern Tool for Diversification

The purpose of this study is to examine how well risk parity works in terms of risk, return and diversification relative to more traditional minimum variance, 1/N and 60/40 portfolios. Risk parity portfolios were constituted of five risk sources; three common asset classes and two alternative beta investment strategies. The three common asset classes were equities, bonds and commodities, and the alternative beta investment strategies were carry trade and trend following. Risk parity portfolios were constructed using five different risk measures of which four were tail risk measures. The risk measures were standard deviation, Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, modified Value-at-Risk and modified Expected Shortfall. We studied also how sensitive risk parity is to the choice of risk measure. The hypothesis is that risk parity portfolios provide better return with the same amount of risk and are better diversified than the benchmark portfolios. We used two data sets, monthly and weekly data. The monthly data was from the years 1989-2011 and the weekly data was from the years 2000-2011. Empirical studies showed that risk parity portfolios provide better diversification since the diversification is made at the risk level. Risk based portfolios provided superior return compared to the asset based portfolios. Using tail risk measures in risk parity portfolios do not necessarily provide better hedge from tail events than standard deviation.

Catalysis by gold for biomass transformations

The development of new technologies to supplement fossil resources has led to a growing interest in the utilization of alternative routes. Biomass is a rich renewable feedstock for producing fine chemicals, polymers, and a variety of commodities replacing petroleumderived chemicals. Transformation of biomass into diverse valuable chemicals is the key concept of a biorefinery. Catalytic conversion of biomass, which reduces the use of toxic chemicals is one of the important approaches to improve the profitability of biorefineries. Utilization of gold catalysts allows conducting reactions under environmentally-friendly conditions, with a high catalytic activity and selectivity. Gold-catalyzed valorization of several biomass-derived compounds as an alternative approach to the existing technologies was studied in this work. Isomerization of linoleic acid via double bond migration towards biologically active conjugated linoleic acid isomers (CLA) was investigated. The activity and selectivity of various gold catalysts towards cis-9,trans-11-CLA and trans-10,cis-12-CLA were investigated in a semi-batch reactor, showing that the yield of the desired products varied, depending on the catalyst support. The structure sensitivity in the selective oxidation of arabinose was demonstrated using a series of gold catalysts with different Au cluster sizes in a shaker reactor operating in a semibatch mode. The gas-phase selective oxidation of ethanol was studied and the influence of the catalyst support on the catalytic performance was investigated. The selective oxidation of the lignan hydroxymatairesinol (HMR), extracted from the Norway spruce (Picea abies) knots, to the lignan oxomatairesinol (oxoMAT) was extensively investigated. The influence of the reaction conditions and catalyst properties on the yield of oxoMAT was evaluated. In particular, the structure sensitivity of the reaction was demonstrated. The catalyst deactivation and regeneration procedures were studied. The reaction kinetics and mechanism were advanced.

The European Union and Assembling Biofuel Development – topological investigations concerning the associations between law, policy and space

Biofuels for transport are a renewable source of energy that were once heralded as a solution to multiple problems associated with poor urban air quality, the overproduction of agricultural commodities, the energy security of the European Union (EU) and climate change. It was only after the Union had implemented an incentivizing framework of legal and political instruments for the production, trade and consumption of biofuels that the problems of weakening food security, environmental degradation and increasing greenhouse gases through land-use changes began to unfold. In other words, the difference between political aims for why biofuels are promoted and their consequences has grown – which is also recognized by the EU policy-makers. Therefore, the global networks of producing, trading and consuming biofuels may face a complete restructure if the European Commission accomplishes its pursuit to sideline crop-based biofuels after 2020. My aim with this dissertation is not only to trace the manifold evolutions of the instruments used by the Union to govern biofuels but also to reveal how this evolution has influenced the dynamics of biofuel development. Therefore, I study the ways the EU’s legal and political instruments of steering biofuels are coconstitutive with the globalized spaces of biofuel development. My analytical strategy can be outlined through three concepts. I use the term ‘assemblage’ to approach the operations of the loose entity of actors and non-human elements that are the constituents of multi-scalar and -sectorial biofuel development. ‘Topology’ refers to the spatiality of this European biofuel assemblage and its parts whose evolving relations are treated as the active constituents of space, instead of simply being located in space. I apply the concept of ‘nomosphere’ to characterize the framework of policies, laws and other instruments that the EU applies and construes while attempting to govern biofuels. Even though both the materials and methods vary in the independent articles, these three concepts characterize my analytical strategy that allows me to study law, policy and space associated with each other. The results of my examinations underscore the importance of the instruments of governance of the EU constituting and stabilizing the spaces of producing and, on the other hand, how topological ruptures in biofuel development have enforced the need to reform policies. This analysis maps the vast scope of actors that are influenced by the mechanism of EU biofuel governance and, what is more, shows how they are actively engaging in the Union’s institutional policy formulation. By examining the consequences of fast biofuel development that are spatially dislocated from the established spaces of producing, trading and consuming biofuels such as indirect land use changes, I unfold the processes not tackled by the instruments of the EU. Indeed, it is these spatially dislocated processes that have pushed the Commission construing a new type of governing biofuels: transferring the instruments of climate change mitigation to land-use policies. Although efficient in mitigating these dislocated consequences, these instruments have also created peculiar ontological scaffolding for governing biofuels. According to this mode of governance, the spatiality of biofuel development appears to be already determined and the agency that could dampen the negative consequences originating from land-use practices is treated as irrelevant.

Market anomalies and tactical asset allocation: Utilising market anomalies in multiple asset class portfolios with the Black−Litterman model

This thesis discusses the basic problem of the modern portfolio theory about how to optimise the perfect allocation for an investment portfolio. The theory provides a solution for an efficient portfolio, which minimises the risk of the portfolio with respect to the expected return. A central feature for all the portfolios on the efficient frontier is that the investor needs to provide the expected return for each asset. Market anomalies are persistent patterns seen in the financial markets, which cannot be explained with the current asset pricing theory. The goal of this thesis is to study whether these anomalies can be observed among different asset classes. Finally, if persistent patterns are found, it is investigated whether the anomalies hold valuable information for determining the expected returns used in the portfolio optimization Market anomalies and investment strategies based on them are studied with a rolling estimation window, where the return for the following period is always based on historical information. This is also crucial when rebalancing the portfolio. The anomalies investigated within this thesis are value, momentum, reversal, and idiosyncratic volatility. The research data includes price series of country level stock indices, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. The modern portfolio theory and the views given by the anomalies are combined by utilising the Black-Litterman model. This makes it possible to optimise the portfolio so that investor’s views are taken into account. When constructing the portfolios, the goal is to maximise the Sharpe ratio. Significance of the results is studied by assessing if the strategy yields excess returns in a relation to those explained by the threefactormodel. The most outstanding finding is that anomaly based factors include valuable information to enhance efficient portfolio diversification. When the highest Sharpe ratios for each asset class are picked from the test factors and applied to the Black−Litterman model, the final portfolio results in superior riskreturn combination. The highest Sharpe ratios are provided by momentum strategy for stocks and long-term reversal for the rest of the asset classes. Additionally, a strategy based on the value effect was highly appealing, and it basically performs as well as the previously mentioned Sharpe strategy. When studying the anomalies, it is found, that 12-month momentum is the strongest effect, especially for stock indices. In addition, a high idiosyncratic volatility seems to be positively correlated with country indices on stocks.

Modeling Energy Futures Returns With Markov Regime Switching Model

Financial time series have a tendency of abruptly changing their behavior and maintain this behavior for several consecutive periods, and commodity futures returns are not an exception. This quality proposes that nonlinear models, as opposed to linear models, can more accurately describe returns and volatility. Markov regime switching models are able to match this behavior and have become a popular way to model financial time series. This study uses Markov regime switching model to describe the behavior of energy futures returns on a commodity level, because studies show that commodity futures are a heterogeneous asset class. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, determine how many regimes characterize individual energy commodities’ returns in different return frequencies. Second, study the characteristics of these regimes. We extent the previous studies on the subject in two ways: We allow for the possibility that the number of regimes may exceed two, as well as conduct the research on individual commodities rather than on commodity indices or subgroups of these indices. We use daily, weekly and monthly time series of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoil futures returns over 1994–2014, where available, to carry out the study. We apply the likelihood ratio test to determine the sufficient number of regimes for each commodity and data frequency. Then the time series are modeled with Markov regime switching model to obtain the return distribution characteristics of each regime, as well as the transition probabilities of moving between regimes. The results for the number of regimes suggest that daily energy futures return series consist of three to six regimes, whereas weekly and monthly returns for all energy commodities display only two regimes. When the number of regimes exceeds two, there is a tendency for the time series of energy commodities to form groups of regimes. These groups are usually quite persistent as a whole because probability of a regime switch inside the group is high. However, individual regimes in these groups are not persistent and the process oscillates between these regimes frequently. Regimes that are not part of any group are generally persistent, but show low ergodic probability, i.e. rarely prevail in the market. This study also suggests that energy futures return series characterized with two regimes do not necessarily display persistent bull and bear regimes. In fact, for the majority of time series, bearish regime is considerably less persistent. Rahoituksen aikasarjoilla on taipumus arvaamattomasti muuttaa käyttäytymistään ja jatkaa tätä uutta käyttäytymistä useiden periodien ajan, eivätkä hyödykefutuurien tuotot tee tähän poikkeusta. Tämän ominaisuuden johdosta lineaaristen mallien sijasta epälineaariset mallit pystyvät tarkemmin kuvailemaan esimerkiksi tuottojen jakauman parametreja. Markov regiiminvaihtomallit pystyvät vangitsemaan tämän ominaisuuden ja siksi niistä on tullut suosittuja rahoituksen aikasarjojen mallintamisessa. Tämä tutkimus käyttää Markov regiiminvaihtomallia kuvaamaan yksittäisten energiafutuurien tuottojen käyttäytymistä, sillä tutkimukset osoittavat hyödykefutuurien olevan hyvin heterogeeninen omaisuusluokka. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää, kuinka monta regiimiä tarvitaan kuvaamaan energiafutuurien tuottoja eri tuottofrekvensseillä ja mitkä ovat näiden regiimien ominaisuudet. Aiempaa tutkimusta aiheesta laajennetaan määrittämällä regiimien lukumäärä tilastotieteellisen testauksen menetelmin sekä tutkimalla energiafutuureja yksittäin; ei indeksi- tai alaindeksitasolla. Tutkimuksessa käytetään päivä-, viikko- ja kuukausiaikasarjoja Brent-raakaöljyn, WTI-raakaöljyn, maakaasun, lämmitysöljyn ja polttoöljyn tuotoista aikaväliltä 1994–2014, siltä osin kuin aineistoa on saatavilla. Likelihood ratio -testin avulla estimoidaan kaikille aikasarjoille regiimien määrä,jonka jälkeen Markov regiiminvaihtomallia hyödyntäen määritetään yksittäisten regiimientuottojakaumien ominaisuudet sekä regiimien välinen transitiomatriisi. Tulokset regiimien lukumäärän osalta osoittavat, että energiafutuurien päiväkohtaisten tuottojen aikasarjoissa regiimien lukumäärä vaihtelee kolmen ja kuuden välillä. Viikko- ja kuukausituottojen kohdalla kaikkien energiafutuurien prosesseissa regiimien lukumäärä on kaksi. Kun regiimejä on enemmän kuin kaksi, on prosessilla taipumus muodostaa regiimeistä koostuvia ryhmiä. Prosessi pysyy ryhmän sisällä yleensä pitkään, koska todennäköisyys siirtyä ryhmään kuuluvien regiimien välillä on suuri. Yksittäiset regiimit ryhmän sisällä eivät kuitenkaan ole kovin pysyviä. Näin ollen prosessi vaihtelee ryhmän sisäisten regiimien välillä tiuhaan. Regiimit, jotka eivät kuulu ryhmään, ovat yleensä pysyviä, mutta prosessi ajautuu niihin vain harvoin, sillä todennäköisyys siirtyä muista regiimeistä niihin on pieni. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat myös, että prosesseissa, joita ohjaa kaksi regiimiä, nämä regiimit eivät välttämättä ole pysyvät bull- ja bear-markkinatilanteet. Tulokset osoittavat sen sijaan, että bear-markkinatilanne on energiafutuureissa selvästi vähemmän pysyvä.

Foreign exchange exposure management in a fuel procurement company operating in the commodity markets

Fluctuating commodity prices, foreign exchange rates and interest rates are causing changes in cash flows, market value and the companies’ profit. Most of the commodities are quoted in US dollar. Companies with non-dollar accounting face a double risk in the form of the commodity price risk and foreign exchange risk. The objective of this Master’s thesis is to find out how companies under commodity should manage foreign exchange exposure. The theoretical literature is based on foreign exchange risk, commodity risk and foreign exchange exposure management. The empirical research is done by using constructive modelling of a case company in the oil industry. The exposure is model with foreign exchange net cash flow and net working capital. First, the factors affecting foreign exchange exposure in case company are analyzed, then a model of foreign exchange exposure is created. Finally, the models are compared and the most suitable method is defined. According to the literature, foreign exchange exposure is the foreign exchange net cash flow. However, the results of the study show that foreign exchange risk can be managed also with net working capital. When the purchases, sales and storage are under foreign exchange risk, the best way to manage foreign exchange exposure is with combined net cash flow and net working capital method. The foreign exchange risk policy of the company defines the appropriate way to manage foreign exchange risk.

The outtermost or the fartheste parte of the Easterne Sea eastwardly, the which lyeth inclosed with in the coastes of East Finland, Rusland, & Lyffland, and wherein lye the Narve and Wyburgh the twoo furthermost places or marchante townes of the whole Easterne Navigation, with all the circumstances of the situation, the isles and Swedish rockes called Schares

Janamittakaavat: Englishe leagues 20 in a degree ; Spanische leagues 17 1/2 in a degree ; Dutche leagues 15 in a degree.