Kinetic modeling of mechanisms of industrially important organic reactions in gas and liquid phase

This dissertation is based on 5 articles which deal with reaction mechanisms of the following selected industrially important organic reactions: 1. dehydrocyclization of n-butylbenzene to produce naphthalene 2. dehydrocyclization of 1-(p-tolyl)-2-methylbutane (MB) to produce 2,6-dimethylnaphthalene 3. esterification of neopentyl glycol (NPG) with different carboxylic acids to produce monoesters 4. skeletal isomerization of 1-pentene to produce 2-methyl-1-butene and 2-methyl-2-butene The results of initial- and integral-rate experiments of n-butylbenzene dehydrocyclization over selfmade chromia/alumina catalyst were applied when investigating reaction 2. Reaction 2 was performed using commercial chromia/alumina of different acidity, platina on silica and vanadium/calcium/alumina as catalysts. On all catalysts used for the dehydrocyclization, major reactions were fragmentation of MB and 1-(p-tolyl)-2-methylbutenes (MBes), dehydrogenation of MB, double bond transfer, hydrogenation and 1,6-cyclization of MBes. Minor reactions were 1,5-cyclization of MBes and methyl group fragmentation of 1,6- cyclization products. Esterification reactions of NPG were performed using three different carboxylic acids: propionic, isobutyric and 2-ethylhexanoic acid. Commercial heterogeneous gellular (Dowex 50WX2), macroreticular (Amberlyst 15) type resins and homogeneous para-toluene sulfonic acid were used as catalysts. At first NPG reacted with carboxylic acids to form corresponding monoester and water. Then monoester esterified with carboxylic acid to form corresponding diester. In disproportionation reaction two monoester molecules formed NPG and corresponding diester. All these three reactions can attain equilibrium. Concerning esterification, water was removed from the reactor in order to prevent backward reaction. Skeletal isomerization experiments of 1-pentene were performed over HZSM-22 catalyst. Isomerization reactions of three different kind were detected: double bond, cis-trans and skeletal isomerization. Minor side reaction were dimerization and fragmentation. Monomolecular and bimolecular reaction mechanisms for skeletal isomerization explained experimental results almost equally well. Pseudohomogeneous kinetic parameters of reactions 1 and 2 were estimated by usual least squares fitting. Concerning reactions 3 and 4 kinetic parameters were estimated by the leastsquares method, but also the possible cross-correlation and identifiability of parameters were determined using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Finally using MCMC method, the estimation of model parameters and predictions were performed according to the Bayesian paradigm. According to the fitting results suggested reaction mechanisms explained experimental results rather well. When the possible cross-correlation and identifiability of parameters (Reactions 3 and 4) were determined using MCMC method, the parameters identified well, and no pathological cross-correlation could be seen between any parameter pair.

A Development and Application of a Three-Dimensional Model for a CFB Gasifier

The developing energy markets and rising energy system costs have sparked the need to find new forms of energy production and increase the self-sufficiency of energy production. One alternative is gasification, whose principles have been known for decades, but it is only recently when the technology has become a true alternative. However, in order to meet the requirements of modern energy production methods, it is necessary to study the phenomenon thoroughly. In order to understand the gasification process better and optimize it from the viewpoint of ecology and energy efficiency, it is necessary to develop effective and reliable modeling tools for gasifiers. The main aims of this work have been to understand gasification as a process and furthermore to develop an existing three-dimensional circulating fluidized bed modeling tool for modeling of gasification. The model is applied to two gasification processes of 12 and 50 MWth. The results of modeling and measurements have been compared and subsequently reviewed. The work was done in co-operation with Lappeenranta University of Technology and Foster Wheeler Energia Oy.

Automated, adaptive methods for forest inventory

Forest inventories are used to estimate forest characteristics and the condition of forest for many different applications: operational tree logging for forest industry, forest health state estimation, carbon balance estimation, land-cover and land use analysis in order to avoid forest degradation etc. Recent inventory methods are strongly based on remote sensing data combined with field sample measurements, which are used to define estimates covering the whole area of interest. Remote sensing data from satellites, aerial photographs or aerial laser scannings are used, depending on the scale of inventory. To be applicable in operational use, forest inventory methods need to be easily adjusted to local conditions of the study area at hand. All the data handling and parameter tuning should be objective and automated as much as possible. The methods also need to be robust when applied to different forest types. Since there generally are no extensive direct physical models connecting the remote sensing data from different sources to the forest parameters that are estimated, mathematical estimation models are of "black-box" type, connecting the independent auxiliary data to dependent response data with linear or nonlinear arbitrary models. To avoid redundant complexity and over-fitting of the model, which is based on up to hundreds of possibly collinear variables extracted from the auxiliary data, variable selection is needed. To connect the auxiliary data to the inventory parameters that are estimated, field work must be performed. In larger study areas with dense forests, field work is expensive, and should therefore be minimized. To get cost-efficient inventories, field work could partly be replaced with information from formerly measured sites, databases. The work in this thesis is devoted to the development of automated, adaptive computation methods for aerial forest inventory. The mathematical model parameter definition steps are automated, and the cost-efficiency is improved by setting up a procedure that utilizes databases in the estimation of new area characteristics.

Bayesian methods for estimation, optimization and experimental design

Mathematical models often contain parameters that need to be calibrated from measured data. The emergence of efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods has made the Bayesian approach a standard tool in quantifying the uncertainty in the parameters. With MCMC, the parameter estimation problem can be solved in a fully statistical manner, and the whole distribution of the parameters can be explored, instead of obtaining point estimates and using, e.g., Gaussian approximations. In this thesis, MCMC methods are applied to parameter estimation problems in chemical reaction engineering, population ecology, and climate modeling. Motivated by the climate model experiments, the methods are developed further to make them more suitable for problems where the model is computationally intensive. After the parameters are estimated, one can start to use the model for various tasks. Two such tasks are studied in this thesis: optimal design of experiments, where the task is to design the next measurements so that the parameter uncertainty is minimized, and model-based optimization, where a model-based quantity, such as the product yield in a chemical reaction model, is optimized. In this thesis, novel ways to perform these tasks are developed, based on the output of MCMC parameter estimation. A separate topic is dynamical state estimation, where the task is to estimate the dynamically changing model state, instead of static parameters. For example, in numerical weather prediction, an estimate of the state of the atmosphere must constantly be updated based on the recently obtained measurements. In this thesis, a novel hybrid state estimation method is developed, which combines elements from deterministic and random sampling methods.

Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Development of Cost Estimation with Feedback Information in EPCM Business

Target company of this study is a large machinery company, which is, inter alia, engaged in energy and pulp engineering, procurement and construction management (EPCM) supply business. The main objective of this study was to develop cost estimation of the target company by providing more accurate, reliable and up-to-date information through enterprise resource planning (ERP) system. Another objective was to find cost-effective methods to collect total cost of ownership information to support more informed supplier selection decision making. This study is primarily action-oriented, but also constructive, and it can be divided in two sections: theoretical literature review and empirical study on the abovementioned part of the target company’s business. Development of information collection is, in addition to literature review, based on nearly 30 qualitative interviews of employees at various organizational units, functions and levels at the target company. At the core of development was to make initial data more accurate, reliable and available, a necessary prerequisite for informed use of the information. Certain development suggestions and paths were presented in order to regain confidence in ERP system as information source by reorganizing work breakdown structure and by complementing mere cost information with quantitative, technical and scope information. Several methods to use the information ever more effectively were also discussed. While implementation of the development suggestions outreached the scope of this study, it was forwarded in test environment and interest groups.

Painevesityyppisen ydinvoimalaitoksen sekundääripiirin mallinnus

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli kehittää entistä tarkempi ja luotettavampi työkalu Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen ensimmäisen reaktoriyksikön sekundääripiirin 50-linjan stationääritilan toiminnan arviointiin. Toisena tavoitteena oli kartoittaa ja raportoida mallintamiseen käytetyn SOLVO-ohjelman kehitysmahdollisuuksia. Tutkimusten perusteella kehitettiin testatusti toimiva prosessimalli, joka dokumentoitiin ja validoitiin yksityiskohtaisesti. Tulevaisuudessa tapahtuvaa kehitystyötä, ja mallin käyttöä varten kehitettiin lisäksi Excel-pohjainen työkalu, jonka avulla SOLVO:n ja Excelin välinen integraatio voidaan myöhemmin julkaistavassa SOLVO:n versiossa viedä nykyistä pidemmälle. Mallintamistyön ohella tutkimuksen aikana selvitettiin olennaisimmat SOLVO:n erityispiirteet ja vahvuudet sekä kartoitettiin sen käyttöön liittyvät kehitystarpeet. Tärkeimpänä kehitysehdotuksena nousi esiin yksittäisissä komponenteissa suoritetun laskennan läpinäkyvyyden parantaminen. Seuraavassa kehitysvaiheessa myös komponenttikohtaiset laskentayhtälöt olisi suositeltavaa asettaa avoimiksi käyttäjäkohtaisille muutoksille. Työn aikana saavutettiin myös muita merkittäviä tuloksia, jotka liittyivät pääosin rinnak-kaisten 10- ja 50-linjojen välisiin yhteyksiin. Linjojen välisiä vaikutuksia analysoitaessa huomattiin niiden olevan olennaisessa asemassa erityisesti sarja-ajon aikana. Mikäli mallilla halutaan kuvata sekä sarja- että rinnanajoa, sen on käsitettävä molemmat linjat ja kaikki niihin liittyvät komponentit. Edellä mainitun lisäksi mallipohjaisen tarkastelun tuloksena tehtiin havaintoja, joiden perusteella nykyistä prosessia voidaan edelleen kehittää. Näistä havainnoista tärkeimpänä merivesipumppujen optimaalisen säätölämpötilan todettiin asettuvan 4,5 – 4,6 °C välille. Toinen huomio liittyi matalapaineturbiinien ulosvirtaushäviöihin, joihin hukataan juoksusta riippuen keskimäärin noin 10 kJ/kg enemmän entalpiaa kuin parhaassa mahdollisessa tapauksessa. Validoinnin yhteydessä havaituista pienistä poikkeamista huolimatta kehitetty malli vastaa hyvin laitokselta saatuja mittaustuloksia sekä muita samassa yhteydessä käytettyjä luotet-tavuuden arviointikriteerejä.

Developing a Brand Positioning Model for International Strategic Marketing

The target of this thesis is to develop a brand positioning process model for the case company’s international operations. The model will make the process more effective and decrease the risk of relevant aspects being forgotten. The focus is on the international operations although generally the brand positioning can be seen as a standardized subject and, thus, there is no need to distinguish market areas. Constructive research approach is chosen as a research method. Internal interviews are done in order to give the much needed insight about the case company’s current processes and circumstances. Based on theory, interviews as well as internal and external material the model is built. The most difficult part in building the model is to determine the order of each phase. Also, deciding the number of each phase can be problematic. The model should be brief and assertive in order to reduce the risk of misunderstanding between employees from different units. Based on the analysis of the interviews and the theory the brand positioning process model is presented with indication of the order of each phase. The model is divided to three main groups: Analyzing the Environment, Determining the Brand Position, and Documenting the BPS. The benefits of the model are that overlapping work can be reduced, too similar brands can be noticed and it is easier to train new employees.

Project Master Document adaption in order fulfillment process

This thesis discusses adaption of new project management tool at ABB Oy Motors and Generators business unit, Synchronous Machines profit centre. Thesis studies project modeling in general and buries in the Gate Model used at ABB Synchronous Machines. It is essential to understand Gate Model because this new project management tool, called Project Master Document, is created on the base of the existing project model. Thesis also analyzes goals and structure of Project Master Document in order to ease implementation of this new tool. Project Master Document aims to improved customer order fulfillment by clearing order handover interface. Office process, especially responsibilities and target dates, become also clearer after Master Document implementation. The document is built to be frame for whole order fulfillment process including check points for each gate of project model and updated memos from all project meetings. Furthermore, project progress will be clearly stated by status markings and visualized with colors.

Reflexive model of research-based theatre – processing innovation at the crossroads of theatre, reflection and practice-based innovation activities

Contemporary organisations have to embrace the notion of doing ‘more with less’. This challenges knowledge production within companies and public organisations, forcing them to reorganise their structures and rethink what knowledge production actually means in the context of innovation and how knowledge is actually produced among various professional groups within the organisation in their everyday actions. Innovations are vital for organisational survival, and ‘ordinary’ employees and customers are central but too-often ignored producers of knowledge for contemporary organisations. Broader levels of participation and reflexive practices are needed. This dissertation discusses the missing links between innovation research conducted in the context of industrial management, arts, and culture; applied drama and theatre practices (specifically post-Boalian approaches); and learning – especially organising reflection – in organisational settings. This dissertation (1) explores and extends the role of research-based theatre to organising reflection and reflexive practices in the context of practice-based innovation, (2) develops a reflexive model of RBT for investigating and developing practice-based organisational process innovations in order to contribute to the development of a tool for innovation management and analysis, and (3) operationalises this model within private- and publicsector organisations. The proposed novel reflexive model of research-based theatre for investigating and developing practice-based organisational process innovations extends existing methods and offers a different way of organising reflection and reflexive practices in the context of general innovation management. The model was developed through five participatory action research processes conducted in four different organisations. The results provide learning steps – a reflection path – for understanding complex organisational life, people, and relations amid renewal and change actions. The proposed model provides a new approach to organising and cultivating reflexivity in practice-based innovation activities via research-based theatre. The results can be utilised as a guideline when processing practice-based innovation within private or public organisations. The model helps innovation managers to construct, together with their employees, temporary communities where they can learn together through reflecting on their own and each others’ experiences and to break down assumptions related to their own perspectives. The results include recommendations for practical development steps applicable in various organisations with regard to (i) application of research-based theatre and (ii) related general innovation management. The dissertation thus contributes to the development of novel learning approaches in knowledge production. Keywords: practice-based innovation, research-based theatre, learning, reflection, mode 2b knowledge production

Differential Evolution approach and parameter estimation of chaotic

Parameter estimation still remains a challenge in many important applications. There is a need to develop methods that utilize achievements in modern computational systems with growing capabilities. Owing to this fact different kinds of Evolutionary Algorithms are becoming an especially perspective field of research. The main aim of this thesis is to explore theoretical aspects of a specific type of Evolutionary Algorithms class, the Differential Evolution (DE) method, and implement this algorithm as codes capable to solve a large range of problems. Matlab, a numerical computing environment provided by MathWorks inc., has been utilized for this purpose. Our implementation empirically demonstrates the benefits of a stochastic optimizers with respect to deterministic optimizers in case of stochastic and chaotic problems. Furthermore, the advanced features of Differential Evolution are discussed as well as taken into account in the Matlab realization. Test "toycase" examples are presented in order to show advantages and disadvantages caused by additional aspects involved in extensions of the basic algorithm. Another aim of this paper is to apply the DE approach to the parameter estimation problem of the system exhibiting chaotic behavior, where the well-known Lorenz system with specific set of parameter values is taken as an example. Finally, the DE approach for estimation of chaotic dynamics is compared to the Ensemble prediction and parameter estimation system (EPPES) approach which was recently proposed as a possible solution for similar problems.

Power cycling lifetime estimation of IGBT power modules based on chip temperature modeling

In this doctoral thesis, methods to estimate the expected power cycling life of power semiconductor modules based on chip temperature modeling are developed. Frequency converters operate under dynamic loads in most electric drives. The varying loads cause thermal expansion and contraction, which stresses the internal boundaries between the material layers in the power module. Eventually, the stress wears out the semiconductor modules. The wear-out cannot be detected by traditional temperature or current measurements inside the frequency converter. Therefore, it is important to develop a method to predict the end of the converter lifetime. The thesis concentrates on power-cycling-related failures of insulated gate bipolar transistors. Two types of power modules are discussed: a direct bonded copper (DBC) sandwich structure with and without a baseplate. Most common failure mechanisms are reviewed, and methods to improve the power cycling lifetime of the power modules are presented. Power cycling curves are determined for a module with a lead-free solder by accelerated power cycling tests. A lifetime model is selected and the parameters are updated based on the power cycling test results. According to the measurements, the factor of improvement in the power cycling lifetime of modern IGBT power modules is greater than 10 during the last decade. Also, it is noticed that a 10 C increase in the chip temperature cycle amplitude decreases the lifetime by 40%. A thermal model for the chip temperature estimation is developed. The model is based on power loss estimation of the chip from the output current of the frequency converter. The model is verified with a purpose-built test equipment, which allows simultaneous measurement and simulation of the chip temperature with an arbitrary load waveform. The measurement system is shown to be convenient for studying the thermal behavior of the chip. It is found that the thermal model has a 5 C accuracy in the temperature estimation. The temperature cycles that the power semiconductor chip has experienced are counted by the rainflow algorithm. The counted cycles are compared with the experimentally verified power cycling curves to estimate the life consumption based on the mission profile of the drive. The methods are validated by the lifetime estimation of a power module in a direct-driven wind turbine. The estimated lifetime of the IGBT power module in a direct-driven wind turbine is 15 000 years, if the turbine is located in south-eastern Finland.

Validation of a 3D model for oxygen combustion in a circulating fluidized bed

In this thesis, a model called CFB3D is validated for oxygen combustion in circulating fluidized bed boiler. The first part of the work consists of literature review in which circulating fluidized bed and oxygen combustion technologies are studied. In addition, the modeling of circulating fluidized bed furnaces is discussed and currently available industrial scale three-dimensional furnace models are presented. The main features of CFB3D model are presented along with the theories and equations related to the model parameters used in this work. The second part of this work consists of the actual research and modeling work including measurements, model setup, and modeling results. The objectives of this thesis is to study how well CFB3D model works with oxygen combustion compared to air combustion in circulating fluidized bed boiler and what model parameters need to be adjusted when changing from air to oxygen combustion. The study is performed by modeling two air combustion cases and two oxygen combustion cases with comparable boiler loads. The cases are measured at Ciuden 30 MWth Flexi-Burn demonstration plant in April 2012. The modeled furnace temperatures match with the measurements as well in oxygen combustion cases as in air combustion cases but the modeled gas concentrations differ from the measurements clearly more in oxygen combustion cases. However, the same model parameters are optimal for both air and oxygen combustion cases. When the boiler load is changed, some combustion and heat transfer related model parameters need to be adjusted. To improve the accuracy of modeling results, better flow dynamics model should be developed in the CFB3D model. Additionally, more measurements are needed from the lower furnace to find the best model parameters for each case. The validation work needs to be continued in order to improve the modeling results and model predictability.

Reflexive Space. A Constructionist Model of the Russian Reflexive Marker

This study examines the structure of the Russian Reflexive Marker ( ся/-сь) and offers a usage-based model building on Construction Grammar and a probabilistic view of linguistic structure. Traditionally, reflexive verbs are accounted for relative to non-reflexive verbs. These accounts assume that linguistic structures emerge as pairs. Furthermore, these accounts assume directionality where the semantics and structure of a reflexive verb can be derived from the non-reflexive verb. However, this directionality does not necessarily hold diachronically. Additionally, the semantics and the patterns associated with a particular reflexive verb are not always shared with the non-reflexive verb. Thus, a model is proposed that can accommodate the traditional pairs as well as for the possible deviations without postulating different systems. A random sample of 2000 instances marked with the Reflexive Marker was extracted from the Russian National Corpus and the sample used in this study contains 819 unique reflexive verbs. This study moves away from the traditional pair account and introduces the concept of Neighbor Verb. A neighbor verb exists for a reflexive verb if they share the same phonological form excluding the Reflexive Marker. It is claimed here that the Reflexive Marker constitutes a system in Russian and the relation between the reflexive and neighbor verbs constitutes a cross-paradigmatic relation. Furthermore, the relation between the reflexive and the neighbor verb is argued to be of symbolic connectivity rather than directionality. Effectively, the relation holding between particular instantiations can vary. The theoretical basis of the present study builds on this assumption. Several new variables are examined in order to systematically model variability of this symbolic connectivity, specifically the degree and strength of connectivity between items. In usage-based models, the lexicon does not constitute an unstructured list of items. Instead, items are assumed to be interconnected in a network. This interconnectedness is defined as Neighborhood in this study. Additionally, each verb carves its own niche within the Neighborhood and this interconnectedness is modeled through rhyme verbs constituting the degree of connectivity of a particular verb in the lexicon. The second component of the degree of connectivity concerns the status of a particular verb relative to its rhyme verbs. The connectivity within the neighborhood of a particular verb varies and this variability is quantified by using the Levenshtein distance. The second property of the lexical network is the strength of connectivity between items. Frequency of use has been one of the primary variables in functional linguistics used to probe this. In addition, a new variable called Constructional Entropy is introduced in this study building on information theory. It is a quantification of the amount of information carried by a particular reflexive verb in one or more argument constructions. The results of the lexical connectivity indicate that the reflexive verbs have statistically greater neighborhood distances than the neighbor verbs. This distributional property can be used to motivate the traditional observation that the reflexive verbs tend to have idiosyncratic properties. A set of argument constructions, generalizations over usage patterns, are proposed for the reflexive verbs in this study. In addition to the variables associated with the lexical connectivity, a number of variables proposed in the literature are explored and used as predictors in the model. The second part of this study introduces the use of a machine learning algorithm called Random Forests. The performance of the model indicates that it is capable, up to a degree, of disambiguating the proposed argument construction types of the Russian Reflexive Marker. Additionally, a global ranking of the predictors used in the model is offered. Finally, most construction grammars assume that argument construction form a network structure. A new method is proposed that establishes generalization over the argument constructions referred to as Linking Construction. In sum, this study explores the structural properties of the Russian Reflexive Marker and a new model is set forth that can accommodate both the traditional pairs and potential deviations from it in a principled manner.

Improved order fulfillment in paper production

For the paper mill profitability it is crucial to minimize overproduction and underproduction. Overproduction and underproduction both generate undesired costs and profit losses in paper mill production. This master’s thesis examines paper production order fulfillment subject from paper production level point of view. Research and development approach is selected due to clarification requirements in lately implemented manufacturing execution system. Manufacturing execution systems are generally expected to offer reliable and accurate information about mill production details. However, confusions are likely to occur after implementation of new manufacturing execution system. These confusions are usually harmful and become cumulatively more influential the longer they keep occurring. In this master’s thesis is presented actions to improve order fulfillment at paper mill production level. Central points of the improvement actions are a model for successful order fulfillment in paper mill production and manufacturing execution system catalogue configuration redesign. Improvement actions are implemented in Jokilaakso paper production plant and it is examined as a case study. In the end of this master’s thesis is presented performance measurements which demonstrate order fulfillment from case Jokilaakso.