Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

Location intelligence strategisen päätöksenteon tukena

Kilpailuetua tavoittelevan yrityksen pitää kyetä jalostamaan tietoa ja tunnistamaan sen avulla uusia tulevaisuuden mahdollisuuksia. Tulevaisuuden mielikuvien luomiseksi yrityksen on tunnettava toimintaympäristönsä ja olla herkkänä havaitsemaan muutostrendit ja muut toimintaympäristön signaalit. Ympäristön elintärkeät signaalit liittyvät kilpailijoihin, teknologian kehittymiseen, arvomaailman muutoksiin, globaaleihin väestötrendeihin tai jopa ympäristön muutoksiin. Spatiaaliset suhteet ovat peruspilareita käsitteellistää maailmaamme. Pitney (2015) on arvioinut, että 80 % kaikesta bisnesdatasta sisältää jollakin tavoin viittauksia paikkatietoon. Siitä huolimatta paikkatietoa on vielä huonosti hyödynnetty yritysten strategisten päätösten tukena. Teknologioiden kehittyminen, tiedon nopea siirto ja paikannustekniikoiden integroiminen eri laitteisiin ovat mahdollistaneet sen, että paikkatietoa hyödyntäviä palveluja ja ratkaisuja tullaan yhä enemmän näkemään yrityskentässä. Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää voiko location intelligence toimia strategisen päätöksenteon tukena ja jos voi, niin miten. Työ toteutettiin konstruktiivista tutkimusmenetelmää käyttäen, jolla pyritään ratkaisemaan jokin relevantti ongelma. Konstruktiivinen tutkimus tehtiin tiiviissä yhteistyössä kolmen pk-yrityksen kanssa ja siihen haastateltiin kuutta eri strategiasta vastaavaa henkilöä. Tutkimuksen tuloksena löydettiin, että location intelligenceä voidaan hyödyntää strategisen päätöksenteon tukena usealla eri tasolla. Yksinkertaisimmassa karttaratkaisussa halutut tiedot tuodaan kartalle ja luodaan visuaalinen esitys, jonka avulla johtopäätöksien tekeminen helpottuu. Toisen tason karttaratkaisu pitää sisällään sekä sijainti- että ominaisuustietoa, jota on yhdistetty eri lähteistä. Tämä toisen tason karttaratkaisu on usein kuvailevaa analytiikkaa, joka mahdollistaa erilaisten ilmiöiden analysoinnin. Kolmannen eli ylimmän tason karttaratkaisu tarjoaa ennakoivaa analytiikkaa ja malleja tulevaisuudesta. Tällöin ohjelmaan koodataan älykkyyttä, jossa informaation keskinäisiä suhteita on määritelty joko tiedon louhintaa tai tilastollisia analyysejä hyödyntäen. Tutkimuksen johtopäätöksenä voidaan todeta, että location intelligence pystyy tarjoamaan lisäarvoa strategisen päätöksenteon tueksi, mikäli yritykselle on hyödyllistä ymmärtää eri ilmiöiden, asiakastarpeiden, kilpailijoiden ja markkinamuutoksien maantieteellisiä eroavaisuuksia. Parhaimmillaan location intelligence -ratkaisu tarjoaa luotettavan analyysin, jossa tieto välittyy muuttumattomana päätöksentekijältä toiselle ja johtopäätökseen johtaneita syitä on mahdollista palata tarkastelemaan tarvittaessa uudelleen.

Distributed energy resources in an electricity retailer’s short-term profit optimization

Liberalization of electricity markets has resulted in a competed Nordic electricity market, in which electricity retailers play a key role as electricity suppliers, market intermediaries, and service providers. Although these roles may remain unchanged in the near future, the retailers’ operation may change fundamentally as a result of the emerging smart grid environment. Especially the increasing amount of distributed energy resources (DER), and improving opportunities for their control, are reshaping the operating environment of the retailers. This requires that the retailers’ operation models are developed to match the operating environment, in which the active use of DER plays a major role. Electricity retailers have a clientele, and they operate actively in the electricity markets, which makes them a natural market party to offer new services for end-users aiming at an efficient and market-based use of DER. From the retailer’s point of view, the active use of DER can provide means to adapt the operation to meet the challenges posed by the smart grid environment, and to pursue the ultimate objective of the retailer, which is to maximize the profit of operation. This doctoral dissertation introduces a methodology for the comprehensive use of DER in an electricity retailer’s short-term profit optimization that covers operation in a variety of marketplaces including day-ahead, intra-day, and reserve markets. The analysis results provide data of the key profit-making opportunities and the risks associated with different types of DER use. Therefore, the methodology may serve as an efficient tool for an experienced operator in the planning of the optimal market-based DER use. The key contributions of this doctoral dissertation lie in the analysis and development of the model that allows the retailer to benefit from profit-making opportunities brought by the use of DER in different marketplaces, but also to manage the major risks involved in the active use of DER. In addition, the dissertation introduces an analysis of the economic potential of DER control actions in different marketplaces including the day-ahead Elspot market, balancing power market, and the hourly market of Frequency Containment Reserve for Disturbances (FCR-D).

Vuokrataloyhtiö muuttuvassa toimintaympäristössä

Suurin osa Suomen vuokrataloyhtiöistä perustettiin 60- ja 70-luvuilla. Tuolloin oli selkeä kuva asuntojen tarpeesta, sijainneista, koosta ja varustetasosta. Asuntotuotantoon kohdistetut rahoitusmuodot koettiin onnistuneiksi ja toimiviksi. Toimintaympäristön muutokset ovat tänään huomattavasti nopeampia kuin tutkimuksen kohteena olevan yhtiön perustamisen aikaan, yli neljäkymmentä vuotta sitten. Vuokrataloyhtiön on pystyttävä varautumaan yllättäviin muutoksiin ja pyrkiä tunnistamaan muuttuvat elementit. Tämä diplomityö pyrkii selvittämään, mitä vaihtoehtoisia tulevaisuudenkuvia on olemassa. Työ perustuu samalla tulevaisuudentutkimuksen kirjallisuusteoriaan ja sen peruslähtökohtiin. Empiirinen osuus perustuu tutkittavan vuokrataloyhtiön historiaan, nykyisyyteen ja tulevaisuuteen tehtyjen ratkaisujen dokumentteihin. Vuokrataloyhtiön ympäristö on täynnä tunnistettavia ominaisuuksia, verkostoja ja rakenteellisia aukkoja. Ympäristöstä tulee osata poimia ne asiat, joiden perusteella eri skenaario- ja ennakointimenetelmät laaditaan. Ennakointi ei ole ennustamista. Skenaario - ja ennakointimenetelmien hyödyntäminen on avoin prosessi, joka sisältää tutkimuskysymyksiä, lähtökohtia, joita tarkennetaan prosessin edetessä. Vuokrataloyhtiön on osattava hyödyntää nämä menetelmät osana strategian suunnitteluaan, jotta se pärjää myös tulevaisuudessa muuttuvassa toimintaympäristössään.

Yrityksen raportointitehtävien keskittäminen palvelukeskukseen, case-tutkimus

Pro Gradu –tutkielman tarkoituksena on ollut selvittää tämän hetken yritysmaailman yhtä keskeisintä aihetta, tehtävien keskittämistä palvelukeskukseen. Yrityksen tekemään päätökseen ovat vaikuttaneet useat eri tekijät, joista kiristyvä kilpailu ja toimintaympäristön muutokset ovat olleet merkittävimmät. Muutosprosessin läpivieminen vie aikaa ja siihen tulisi valmistautua huolella, sillä prosessiin liittyy useita eri vaiheita. Toimintojen organisointi ja muutosjohtaminen muodostavat tutkimuksen teoriapohjan. Tutkimus on laadullinen tutkimus, jonka aineisto on kerätty haastatteluiden ja havainnoinnin avulla. Tutkimus tehtiin eräässä kansainvälisessä yrityksessä, sen yhden liiketoiminta-alueen ja yhden toimintayksikön osalta. Tutkimustuloksista voitiin havaita, että tehtävien keskittäminen palvelukeskukseen koostui useasta vaiheesta. Se koettiin hyväksi ja onnistuneeksi toimintatavaksi. Tehtävien keskittämisprosessiin liittyy hyötyjä ja haasteita, näiden osalta tutkimustuloksissa löytyi yhteneviä tekijöitä aiempien tutkimusten ja kirjallisuusmateriaalin kanssa. Tutkimustulokset osoittivat, että muutosjohtaminen noudatteli tunnettua vaiheistusmallia. Muutosjohtamiseen liittyy merkittävästi ihmisten ja organisaation käyttäytyminen, joka vaikuttaa muutosprosessin onnistuneeseen läpiviemiseen. Ihmiset kokevat muutoksen eri tavoin ja aluksi vastustavat uutta tilannetta.

Mobile Application Environment and Piloting

Diplomityön tavoitteina oli antaa yleiskuva eri mobiiliteknologioistaja niihin liittyvistä käsitteistä, antaa käsitys mobiilisovellusten toimintaympäristöstä ja kuvata ja arvioda määrätyt mobiilit pilottisovellukset. Ensin työssä kerätään tietoa mobiilista ympäristöstä, laitteista, käyttöympäristöstä ja sovelluksista. Sitten työssä esitetään yleisesti mobiiliteknologiat, laitteiden eroavuudet ja erinäisiä tekijöitä, joita tulee ottaa huomioon mobiilien sovellusten kehittämisessä. Seuraavaksi työn aihepiiriin kuuluvat mobiilisovellukset on kuvattu ja pilotoitu. Lopuksi on muodostettu johtopäätökset ja suositukset sovellusten kehittämiseksi. Sovellusten pilotoinnista selvisi, että sovellusten toiminnallisuuteen eri virhetapauksissa ei ole kiinnitetty riittävästi huomiota. Lisäksi työssä pohditaan, josko kaikkien sovellusten pitäisi pohjautua Internet-teknologiaan.

STACK OVERWRITING ATTACKS AND DEFENCES IN UNIX ENVIRONMENT

Työn tarkoituksena on tutkia pinon ylikirjoitukseen perustuvien hyökkäysten toimintaa ja osoittaa kokeellisesti nykyisten suojaustekniikoiden olevan riittämättömiä. Tutkimus suoritetaan testaamalla miten valitut tietoturvatuotteet toimivat eri testitilanteissa. Testatut tuotteet ovat Openwall, PaX, Libsafe 2.0 ja Immunix 6.2. Testaus suoritetaan pääasiassa RedHat 7.0 ympäristössä testiohjelman avulla. Testeissä mitataan sekä tuotteiden kyky havaita hyökkäyksiä että niiden nopeusvaikutukset. Myös erityyppisten hyökkäysten ja niitä vastaan kehitettyjen metodien toimintaperiaatteet esitellään seikkaperäisesti ja havainnollistetaan yksinkertaistetuilla esimerkeillä. Esitellyt tekniikat sisältävät puskurin ylivuodot, laittomat muotoiluparametrit, loppumerkittömät merkkijonot ja taulukoiden ylivuodot. Testit osoittavat, etteivät valitut tuotteet estä kaikkia hyökkäyksiä, joten lopuksi perehdytään myös vahinkojen minimointiin onnistuneiden hyökkäysten varalta.

Protocol Specific Embedded Operating System

Sulautettujen järjestelmien määrä kuten niiden sisältämä älykkyyskin ovat viime vuosina kasvaneet merkittävästi. Sulautettujen ohjelmistojen yleistymistä ja monipuolistumista on edesauttanut sulautettujen laitteistojen prosessointitehon merkittävä kehittyminen, jonka myötä entistä vaativampien ohjelmistojen totetuttaminen sulautetusti on mahdollistunut. Seuraavana sulautettujen järjestelmien kehitysaskeleena on nähtävissä järjestelmien kommunikointikyvyn paraneminen ja siten uusien ja uudentyyppisten sulautettujen ratkaisujen toteuttaminen. VTT on päättänyt tutkia sulautettujen järjestelmien kommunikointia ja kehittää sulautettun protokolla-alustan. Tutkimuksen perusta on CVOPS protokollajärjestelmä, jota jatkokehittämällä pyritään toteuttamaan sulautettu protokollajärjestelmä, µCVOPS. Tässä diplomityössä esitetään kommunikaation sulautetulle järjestelmälle asettamia vaatimuksia, järjestelmän suunnittelu ja prototyypitys sulautetulla laitteistolla. Prototyypitykseen on käytetty sulautettua DragonBall mikrokontrolleria jonka käyttöjärjestelmänä käytettiin sulautettua Linux:a. Tälle alustalle on tehty CVOPS:sta modifioitu versio, jolla µCVOPS:ia pystytään simuloimaan.

Treatment of oily wastewater by ultrafiltration: The effect of different operating and solution conditions

In many industries, such as petroleum production, and the petrochemical, metal, food and cosmetics industries, wastewaters containing an emulsion of oil in water are often produced. The emulsions consist of water (up to 90%), oils (mineral, animal, vegetable and synthetic), surfactants and other contaminates. In view of its toxic nature and its deleterious effects on the surrounding environment (soil, water) such wastewater needs to be treated before release into natural water ways. Membrane-based processes have successfully been applied in industrial applications and are considered as possible candidates for the treatment of oily wastewaters. Easy operation, lower cost, and in some cases, the ability to reduce contaminants below existing pollution limits are the main advantages of these systems. The main drawback of membranes is flux decline due tofouling and concentration polarisation. The complexity of oil-containing systems demands complementary studies on issues related to the mitigation of fouling and concentration polarisation in membranebased ultrafiltration. In this thesis the effect of different operating conditions (factors) on ultrafiltration of oily water is studied. Important factors are normally correlated and, therefore, their effect should be studied simultaneously. This work uses a novel approach to study different operating conditions, like pressure, flow velocity, and temperature, and solution properties, like oil concentration (cutting oil, diesel, kerosene), pH, and salt concentration (CaCl2 and NaCl)) in the ultrafiltration of oily water, simultaneously and in a systematic way using an experimental design approach. A hypothesis is developed to describe the interaction between the oil drops, salt and the membrane surface. The optimum conditions for ultrafiltration and the contribution of each factor in the ultrafiltration of oily water are evaluated. It is found that the effect on permeate flux of the various factors studied strongly depended on the type of oil, the type of membrane and the amount of salts. The thesis demonstrates that a system containing oil is very complex, and that fouling and flux decline can be observed even at very low pressures. This means that only the weak form of the critical flux exists for such systems. The cleaning of the fouled membranes and the influence of different parameters (flow velocity, temperature, time, pressure, and chemical concentration (SDS, NaOH)) were evaluated in this study. It was observed that fouling, and consequently cleaning, behaved differently for the studied membranes. Of the membranes studied, the membrane with the lowest propensity for fouling and the most easily cleaned was the regenerated cellulose membrane (C100H). In order to get more information about the interaction between the membrane and the components of the emulsion, a streaming potential study was performed on the membrane. The experiments were carried out at different pH and oil concentration. It was seen that oily water changed the surface charge of the membrane significantly. The surface charge and the streaming potential during different stages of filtration were measured and analysed being a new method for fouling of oil in this thesis. The surface charge varied in different stages of filtration. It was found that the surface charge of a cleaned membrane was not the same as initially; however, the permeability was equal to that of a virgin membrane. The effect of filtration mode was studied by performing the filtration in both cross-flow and deadend mode. The effect of salt on performance was considered in both studies. It was found that salt decreased the permeate flux even at low concentration. To test the effect of hydrophilicity change, the commercial membranes used in this thesis were modified by grafting (PNIPAAm) on their surfaces. A new technique (corona treatment) was used for this modification. The effect of modification on permeate flux and retention was evaluated. The modified membranes changed their pore size around 33oC resulting in different retention and permeability. The obtained results in this thesis can be applied to optimise the operation of a membrane plant under normal or shock conditions or to modify the process such that it becomes more efficient or effective.

Software Security Vulnerabilities in Mobile Peer-to-peer Environment

Increase of computational power and emergence of new computer technologies led to popularity of local communications between personal trusted devices. By-turn, it led to emergence of security problems related to user data utilized in such communications. One of the main aspects of the data security assurance is security of software operating on mobile devices. The aim of this work was to analyze security threats to PeerHood, software intended for performing personal communications between mobile devices regardless of underlying network technologies. To reach this goal, risk-based software security testing was performed. The results of the testing showed that the project has several security vulnerabilities. So PeerHood cannot be considered as a secure software. The analysis made in the work is the first step towards the further implementation of PeerHood security mechanisms, as well as taking into account security in the development process of this project.

Working capital management in the small and medium-sized enterprises Case: Project-based business environment in Flowrox Oy

This Master´s thesis illustrates how growing a business ties up the company´s working capital and what the cost of committed capital. In order to manage a company´s working capital in rapid business growth phase, the thesis suggests that by monitoring and managing the operating and cash conversion cycles of customers´ projects, a company can find ways to secure the required amount of capital. The research method of this thesis was based on literature reviews and case study research. The theoretical review presents the concepts of working capital and provides the background for understanding how to improve working capital management. The company in subject is a global small and medium-sized enterprise that manufactures pumps and valves for demanding process conditions. The company is expanding, which creates lots of challenges. This thesis concentrates to the company´s working capital management and its efficiency through the supply chain and value chain perspective. The main elements of working capital management are inventory management, accounts receivable management and accounts payable management. Prepayments also play a significant role, particularly in project-based businesses. Developing companies´ working capital management requires knowledge from different kind of key operations´ in the company, like purchasing, production, sales, logistics and financing. The perspective to develop and describe working capital management is an operational. After literature reviews the thesis present pilot projects that formed the basis of a model to monitor working capital in the case company. Based on analysis and pilot projects, the thesis introduces a rough model for monitoring capital commitments in short time period. With the model the company can more efficiently monitor and manage their customer projects.

Russia, China, India Foresight for Small and Medium size Enterprises in Uusimaa : Changes forecast in the Russian, Chinese and Indian operating environments from the viewpoint of small and middle-sized enterprises in Uusimaa

The report describes those factors of the future that are related to the growth and needs of Russia, China, and India and that may provide significant internationalisation potential for Uusimaa companies. The report examines the emerging trends and market-entry challenges for each country separately. Additionally, it evaluates the training needs of Uusimaa companies in terms of the current offerings available for education on topics related to Russia, China, and India. The report was created via the Delphi method: experts were interviewed, and both Trendwiki material and the latest literature were used to create a summary of experts’ views, statements, and reasons behind recent developments. This summary of views was sent back to the experts with the objective of reaching consensus synthesising the differing views or, at least, of providing argumentation for the various alternative lines of development. In addition to a number of outside experts and business leaders, all heads of Finpro’s Finland Trade Centers participated in the initial interviews. The summary was commented upon by all Finpro consultants and analysts for Russia, China, and India, with each focusing on his or her own area of expertise. The literature used consisted of reports, listed for each country, and an extensive selection of the most recent newspaper articles. The report was created in January-April 2010. On 22 April 2010 its results were reviewed at the final report presentation in cooperation with the Uusimaa ELY Centre.

Cultural distance and negotiation behavior : Perception of entrepreneurs operating in Turku

This thesis investigates the influence of cultural distance on entrepreneurs’ negotiation behaviour. For this purpose, Turku was chosen as the unit of analysis due to the exponential demographic change experienced during the last two decades that has derived in a more diversified local environment. The research aim set for this study was to identify to what extent entrepreneurs face cultural distance, how cultural distance influences the entrepreneur’s negotiation behaviour and how can it be addressed in order to turn dissimilarities into opportunities. This study presented the relation and apparent dichotomy of cultural distance and global culture, including the component of diversity. The impact of cultural distance in the entrepreneurial mindset and its consequent effect in negotiation behaviour was presented too. Addressing questions about the way individuals perceive, behave and interact allowed the use of interviews for this qualitative research study. In the empirical part of this study it was found that negotiation behaviour differed in terms of how congenial entrepreneurs felt when managing cultural distance, encompassing their performance. It was also acknowledged that after time and effort, some of the personal traits were enhanced while others reduced, allowing for more flexibility and adaptation. Furthermore, depending on the level of trust and shared interests, entrepreneurs determined their attitudinal approach, being adaptive or reactive subject to situational aspects. Additionally, it was found that the acquisition of cultural savvy not necessarily conveyed to more creativity. This experiential learning capability led to the proposition of new ways of behaviour. Likewise, it was proposed that growing cultural intelligence bridge distances, reducing mistrusts and misunderstandings. The capability of building more collaborative relationships allows entrepreneurs to see cultural distance as a cultural perspective instead of as a threat. Therefore it was recommended to focus on proximity rather than distance to better identify and exploit untapped opportunities and better perform when negotiating in whichever cultural conditions.

The transforming network of a foreign company operating in Mongolia. Case: A Finnish firm in Mongolia

In the globalising business environment ever fewer market areas remain unknown. Mongolia is yet only considered as an isolated strip between two power states. The purpose of this study is to put Mongolia on the map of academic business research. This is done by describing the transforming network of a foreign company operating in Mongolia. The objective of the study is approached through a case study, which presents the transformation of a Finnish company operating in Mongolia. This study aims at providing understanding on how the foreign case company observes the transformations of its network. The transformation within the case company is reflected to the transformations that occur in the Mongolian business environment. This study was conducted through a qualitative, intrinsic case study approach. The empirical data was gathered by using the method of network pictures. The network pictures were completed with the assistance of themed interviews. In order to be able to analyse the transformation within a network, three different time periods were observed: the past period around 2000, the present around 2014, and the estimated future around 2020. The data was collected from four executives positioned either in Finland, Russia or Mongolia. The respondents have a long experience within the case company, they hold managerial position, and therefore were able to offer valuable data for this study. The analytical framework used to analyse the collected data was built on the industrial network model, the ARA (actors-resources-activities)-model. The study shows that the changing business environment of Mongolia was utilised by the case company. In order to better meet the transforming customer wishes, the case company transformed from being a retailer to being a manufacturer. The case company was able to become a pioneer in the market. Thus, the case company has undergone similar kind of rapid transformation as the economy of Mongolia in entirety. This study shows that the general nature of the ARA-model makes it usable for new research contexts. The initial ARA-model offers a way to identify the dimensions of a network and a mean to understand these dimensions. The ARA-model can be applied to different contexts and to all time dimensions, past, present and future. The managerial recommendations offered in this study are directed towards the managers that plan to start operations in Mongolia. While this study is the first of its kind, it offers a good starting point for the future research on the change of Mongolian business networks. Valuable information could, for example, be obtained from a comparative study between the case company of this study and a multinational mining company operating in Mongolia.

Quantification of Toxin Biosynthesis Genes In Cyanobacteria and Dinoflagellates - Genetic Factors as Predictors of Toxin Production in the Environment

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are events caused by the massive proliferation of microscopic, often photosynthetic organisms that inhabit both fresh and marine waters. Although HABs are essentially a natural phenomenon, they now cause worldwide concern. Recent anthropogenic effects, such as climate change and eutrophication via nutrient runoff, can be seen in their increased prevalence and severity. Cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates are often the causative organisms of HABs. In addition to adverse effects caused by the sheer biomass, certain species produce highly potent toxic compounds: hepatotoxic microcystins are produced exclusively by cyanobacteria and neurotoxic saxitoxins, also known as paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs), by both cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates. Specific biosynthetic genes in the cyanobacterial genomes direct the production of microcystin and paralytic shellfish toxins. Recently also the first paralytic shellfish toxin gene sequences from dinoflagellate genomes have been elucidated. The public health risks presented by HABs are evident, but the monitoring and prediction of toxic events is challenging. Characterization of the genetic background of toxin biosynthesis, including that of microcystins and paralytic shellfish toxins, has made it possible to develop highly sensitive molecular tools which have shown promise in the monitoring and study of potentially toxic microalgae. In this doctoral work, toxin-specific genes were targeted in the developed PCR and qPCR assays for the detection and quantification of potentially toxic cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates in the environment. The correlation between the copy numbers of the toxin biosynthesis genes and toxin production were investigated to assess whether the developed methods could be used to predict toxin concentrations. The nature of the correlation between gene copy numbers and amount of toxin produced varied depending on the targeted gene and the producing organism. The combined mcyB copy numbers of three potentially microcystin-producing cyanobacterial genera showed significant positive correlation to the observed total toxin production. However, the presence of PST-specific sxtA, sxtG, and sxtB genes of cyanobacterial origin was found to be a poor predictor of toxin production in the studied area. Conversely, the dinoflagellate sxtA4 was a good qualitative indicator of a neurotoxic bloom both in the laboratory and in the field, and population densities reflected well the observed toxin concentrations. In conclusion, although the specificity of each potential targeted toxin biosynthesis gene must be assessed individually during method development, the results obtained in this doctoral study support the use of quantitative PCR -based approaches in the monitoring of toxic cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates.