89 resultados para model order estimation
Resumo:
The objective of this study is to show that bone strains due to dynamic mechanical loading during physical activity can be analysed using the flexible multibody simulation approach. Strains within the bone tissue play a major role in bone (re)modeling. Based on previous studies, it has been shown that dynamic loading seems to be more important for bone (re)modeling than static loading. The finite element method has been used previously to assess bone strains. However, the finite element method may be limited to static analysis of bone strains due to the expensive computation required for dynamic analysis, especially for a biomechanical system consisting of several bodies. Further, in vivo implementation of strain gauges on the surfaces of bone has been used previously in order to quantify the mechanical loading environment of the skeleton. However, in vivo strain measurement requires invasive methodology, which is challenging and limited to certain regions of superficial bones only, such as the anterior surface of the tibia. In this study, an alternative numerical approach to analyzing in vivo strains, based on the flexible multibody simulation approach, is proposed. In order to investigate the reliability of the proposed approach, three 3-dimensional musculoskeletal models where the right tibia is assumed to be flexible, are used as demonstration examples. The models are employed in a forward dynamics simulation in order to predict the tibial strains during walking on a level exercise. The flexible tibial model is developed using the actual geometry of the subject’s tibia, which is obtained from 3 dimensional reconstruction of Magnetic Resonance Images. Inverse dynamics simulation based on motion capture data obtained from walking at a constant velocity is used to calculate the desired contraction trajectory for each muscle. In the forward dynamics simulation, a proportional derivative servo controller is used to calculate each muscle force required to reproduce the motion, based on the desired muscle contraction trajectory obtained from the inverse dynamics simulation. Experimental measurements are used to verify the models and check the accuracy of the models in replicating the realistic mechanical loading environment measured from the walking test. The predicted strain results by the models show consistency with literature-based in vivo strain measurements. In conclusion, the non-invasive flexible multibody simulation approach may be used as a surrogate for experimental bone strain measurement, and thus be of use in detailed strain estimation of bones in different applications. Consequently, the information obtained from the present approach might be useful in clinical applications, including optimizing implant design and devising exercises to prevent bone fragility, accelerate fracture healing and reduce osteoporotic bone loss.
Resumo:
Project business companies are moving towards solution offering in order to avoid discontinuity of project business and to gain other advantages. An option to implement solution business could be BOOT (Build-Own-Operate-Transfer) business model where a company is given the responsibilities to design, finance, build, own, operate and maintain for example production facilities of a client. The contract is made for 10-30 years, the client pays the solution during this period of time and after contract termination the facilities are transferred to the ownership of the client. The purpose of this study was to provide knowledge about BOOT business model for the company in question and its employees and to create a settlement of the advantages, disadvantages and risks of it. Furthermore, one of the main objectives was to create a description of the network needed to run a BOOT project. The objectives were met through a literature study and an explorative case study with appropriate interviews. Based on this study, the company should be able to evaluate the applicability of BOOT business model to their business environment better.
Resumo:
A rotating machine usually consists of a rotor and bearings that supports it. The nonidealities in these components may excite vibration of the rotating system. The uncontrolled vibrations may lead to excessive wearing of the components of the rotating machine or reduce the process quality. Vibrations may be harmful even when amplitudes are seemingly low, as is usually the case in superharmonic vibration that takes place below the first critical speed of the rotating machine. Superharmonic vibration is excited when the rotational velocity of the machine is a fraction of the natural frequency of the system. In such a situation, a part of the machine’s rotational energy is transformed into vibration energy. The amount of vibration energy should be minimised in the design of rotating machines. The superharmonic vibration phenomena can be studied by analysing the coupled rotor-bearing system employing a multibody simulation approach. This research is focused on the modelling of hydrodynamic journal bearings and rotorbearing systems supported by journal bearings. In particular, the non-idealities affecting the rotor-bearing system and their effect on the superharmonic vibration of the rotating system are analysed. A comparison of computationally efficient journal bearing models is carried out in order to validate one model for further development. The selected bearing model is improved in order to take the waviness of the shaft journal into account. The improved model is implemented and analyzed in a multibody simulation code. A rotor-bearing system that consists of a flexible tube roll, two journal bearings and a supporting structure is analysed employing the multibody simulation technique. The modelled non-idealities are the shell thickness variation in the tube roll and the waviness of the shaft journal in the bearing assembly. Both modelled non-idealities may cause subharmonic resonance in the system. In multibody simulation, the coupled effect of the non-idealities can be captured in the analysis. Additionally one non-ideality is presented that does not excite the vibrations itself but affects the response of the rotorbearing system, namely the waviness of the bearing bushing which is the non-rotating part of the bearing system. The modelled system is verified with measurements performed on a test rig. In the measurements the waviness of bearing bushing was not measured and therefore it’s affect on the response was not verified. In conclusion, the selected modelling approach is an appropriate method when analysing the response of the rotor-bearing system. When comparing the simulated results to the measured ones, the overall agreement between the results is concluded to be good.
Resumo:
In mathematical modeling the estimation of the model parameters is one of the most common problems. The goal is to seek parameters that fit to the measurements as well as possible. There is always error in the measurements which implies uncertainty to the model estimates. In Bayesian statistics all the unknown quantities are presented as probability distributions. If there is knowledge about parameters beforehand, it can be formulated as a prior distribution. The Bays’ rule combines the prior and the measurements to posterior distribution. Mathematical models are typically nonlinear, to produce statistics for them requires efficient sampling algorithms. In this thesis both Metropolis-Hastings (MH), Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithms and Gibbs sampling are introduced. In the thesis different ways to present prior distributions are introduced. The main issue is in the measurement error estimation and how to obtain prior knowledge for variance or covariance. Variance and covariance sampling is combined with the algorithms above. The examples of the hyperprior models are applied to estimation of model parameters and error in an outlier case.
Resumo:
The objective of this master’s thesis was to develop a model for mobile subscription acquisition cost, SAC, and mobile subscription retention cost, SRC, by applying activity-based cost accounting principles. The thesis was conducted as a case study for a telecommunication company operating on the Finnish telecommunication market. In addition to activity-based cost accounting there were other theories studied and applied in order to establish a theory framework for this thesis. The concepts of acquisition and retention were explored in a broader context with the concepts of customer satisfaction, loyalty and profitability and eventually customer relationship management to understand the background and meaning of the theme of this thesis. The utilization of SAC and SRC information is discussed through the theories of decision making and activity-based management. Also, the present state and future needs of SAC and SRC information usage at the case company as well as the functions of the company were examined by interviewing some members of the company personnel. With the help of these theories and methods it was aimed at finding out both the theory-based and practical factors which affect the structure of the model. During the thesis study it was confirmed that the existing SAC and SRC model of the case company should be used as the basis in developing the activity-based model. As a result the indirect costs of the old model were transformed into activities and the direct costs were continued to be allocated directly to acquisition of new subscriptions and retention of old subscriptions. The refined model will enable managing the subscription acquisition, retention and the related costs better through the activity information. During the interviews it was found out that the SAC and SRC information is also used in performance measurement and operational and strategic planning. SAC and SRC are not fully absorbed costs and it was concluded that the model serves best as a source of indicative cost information. This thesis does not include calculating costs. Instead, the refined model together with both the theory-based and interview findings concerning the utilization of the information produced by the model will serve as a framework for the possible future development aiming at completing the model.
Resumo:
Pitkäaikaisten rakennusurakoiden tarjouslaskennassa on ennakoitava hintojen muutoksia useiden vuosien päähän, kun tarjoukset on tehtävä kiinteillä hinnoilla. Kustannusten ennakointi ja hintariskienhallinta on kriittinen tekijä rakennusalan yrityksen kilpailukyvylle. Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on kehittää YIT Rakennus Oy:n Infrapalveluille toimintamalli ja työkalu, joiden avulla hintariskejä voidaan hallita tarjouslaskennassa sekä hankintatoimessa. Ratkaisuksi kehitettiin kustannusten ennakointi -malli, jossa panosryhmien hintojen kehitystä ennustetaan asiantuntijaryhmissä säännöllisesti. Kustannusten ennakointi -mallin käyttöönotto vaatii ennustettavien panosryhmien määrittelyä. Lisäksi on nimettävä asiantuntijaryhmä sekä valittava aikajänne, jolle ennuste tehdään. Ennusteisiin sisältyvä epävarmuus saadaan esiin Monte Carlo simulaatiolla, ja urakan hintariskiä voidaan siten arvioida todennäköisyysjakaumien ja herkkyysanalyysin avulla. Valmiita ennusteita hyödynnetään tarjouslaskennassa sekä hankintatoimessa taktiikoiden ja strategioiden valinnassa.
Resumo:
The article describes some concrete problems that were encountered when writing a two-level model of Mari morphology. Mari is an agglutinative Finno-Ugric language spoken in Russia by about 600 000 people. The work was begun in the 1980s on the basis of K. Koskenniemi’s Two-Level Morphology (1983), but in the latest stage R. Beesley’s and L. Karttunen’s Finite State Morphology (2003) was used. Many of the problems described in the article concern the inexplicitness of the rules in Mari grammars and the lack of information about the exact distribution of some suffixes, e.g. enclitics. The Mari grammars usually give complete paradigms for a few unproblematic verb stems, whereas the difficult or unclear forms of certain verbs are only superficially discussed. Another example of phenomena that are poorly described in grammars is the way suffixes with an initial sibilant combine to stems ending in a sibilant. The help of informants and searches from electronic corpora were used to overcome such difficulties in the development of the two-level model of Mari. The variation of the order of plural markers, case suffixes and possessive suffixes is a typical feature of Mari. The morphotactic rules constructed for Mari declensional forms tend to be recursive and their productivity must be limited by some technical device, such as filters. In the present model, certain plural markers were treated like nouns. The positional and functional versatility of the possessive suffixes can be regarded as the most challenging phenomenon in attempts to formalize the Mari morphology. Cyrillic orthography, which was used in the model, also caused problems. For instance, a Cyrillic letter may represent a sequence of two sounds, the first being part of the word stem while the other belongs to a suffix. In some cases, letters for voiced consonants are also generalized to represent voiceless consonants. Such orthographical conventions distance a morphological model based on orthography from the actual (morpho)phonological processes in the language.
Resumo:
Fine powders of minerals are used commonly in the paper and paint industry, and for ceramics. Research for utilizing of different waste materials in these applications is environmentally important. In this work, the ultrafine grinding of two waste gypsum materials, namely FGD (Flue Gas Desulphurisation) gypsum and phosphogypsum from a phosphoric acid plant, with the attrition bead mill and with the jet mill has been studied. The ' objective of this research was to test the suitability of the attrition bead mill and of the jet mill to produce gypsum powders with a particle size of a few microns. The grinding conditions were optimised by studying the influences of different operational grinding parameters on the grinding rate and on the energy consumption of the process in order to achieve a product fineness such as that required in the paper industry with as low energy consumption as possible. Based on experimental results, the most influential parameters in the attrition grinding were found to be the bead size, the stirrer type, and the stirring speed. The best conditions, based on the product fineness and specific energy consumption of grinding, for the attrition grinding process is to grind the material with small grinding beads and a high rotational speed of the stirrer. Also, by using some suitable grinding additive, a finer product is achieved with a lower energy consumption. In jet mill grinding the most influential parameters were the feed rate, the volumetric flow rate of the grinding air, and the height of the internal classification tube. The optimised condition for the jet is to grind with a small feed rate and with a large rate of volumetric flow rate of grinding air when the inside tube is low. The finer product with a larger rate of production was achieved with the attrition bead mill than with the jet mill, thus the attrition grinding is better for the ultrafine grinding of gypsum than the jet grinding. Finally the suitability of the population balance model for simulation of grinding processes has been studied with different S , B , and C functions. A new S function for the modelling of an attrition mill and a new C function for the modelling of a jet mill were developed. The suitability of the selected models with the developed grinding functions was tested by curve fitting the particle size distributions of the grinding products and then comparing the fitted size distributions to the measured particle sizes. According to the simulation results, the models are suitable for the estimation and simulation of the studied grinding processes.
Resumo:
This thesis concentrates on developing a practical local approach methodology based on micro mechanical models for the analysis of ductile fracture of welded joints. Two major problems involved in the local approach, namely the dilational constitutive relation reflecting the softening behaviour of material, and the failure criterion associated with the constitutive equation, have been studied in detail. Firstly, considerable efforts were made on the numerical integration and computer implementation for the non trivial dilational Gurson Tvergaard model. Considering the weaknesses of the widely used Euler forward integration algorithms, a family of generalized mid point algorithms is proposed for the Gurson Tvergaard model. Correspondingly, based on the decomposition of stresses into hydrostatic and deviatoric parts, an explicit seven parameter expression for the consistent tangent moduli of the algorithms is presented. This explicit formula avoids any matrix inversion during numerical iteration and thus greatly facilitates the computer implementation of the algorithms and increase the efficiency of the code. The accuracy of the proposed algorithms and other conventional algorithms has been assessed in a systematic manner in order to highlight the best algorithm for this study. The accurate and efficient performance of present finite element implementation of the proposed algorithms has been demonstrated by various numerical examples. It has been found that the true mid point algorithm (a = 0.5) is the most accurate one when the deviatoric strain increment is radial to the yield surface and it is very important to use the consistent tangent moduli in the Newton iteration procedure. Secondly, an assessment of the consistency of current local failure criteria for ductile fracture, the critical void growth criterion, the constant critical void volume fraction criterion and Thomason's plastic limit load failure criterion, has been made. Significant differences in the predictions of ductility by the three criteria were found. By assuming the void grows spherically and using the void volume fraction from the Gurson Tvergaard model to calculate the current void matrix geometry, Thomason's failure criterion has been modified and a new failure criterion for the Gurson Tvergaard model is presented. Comparison with Koplik and Needleman's finite element results shows that the new failure criterion is fairly accurate indeed. A novel feature of the new failure criterion is that a mechanism for void coalescence is incorporated into the constitutive model. Hence the material failure is a natural result of the development of macroscopic plastic flow and the microscopic internal necking mechanism. By the new failure criterion, the critical void volume fraction is not a material constant and the initial void volume fraction and/or void nucleation parameters essentially control the material failure. This feature is very desirable and makes the numerical calibration of void nucleation parameters(s) possible and physically sound. Thirdly, a local approach methodology based on the above two major contributions has been built up in ABAQUS via the user material subroutine UMAT and applied to welded T joints. By using the void nucleation parameters calibrated from simple smooth and notched specimens, it was found that the fracture behaviour of the welded T joints can be well predicted using present methodology. This application has shown how the damage parameters of both base material and heat affected zone (HAZ) material can be obtained in a step by step manner and how useful and capable the local approach methodology is in the analysis of fracture behaviour and crack development as well as structural integrity assessment of practical problems where non homogeneous materials are involved. Finally, a procedure for the possible engineering application of the present methodology is suggested and discussed.
Resumo:
The objective of the thesis was to develop a competitors’ financial performance monitoring model for management reporting. The research consisted of the selections of the comparison group and the performance meters as well as the actual creation of the model. A brief analysis of the current situation was also made. The aim of the results was to improve the financial reporting quality in the case organization by adding external business environment observation to the management reports. The comparison group for the case company was selected to include five companies that were all involved in power equipment engineering and project type business. The most limiting factor related to the comparison group selection was the availability of quarterly financial reporting. The most suitable performance meters were defined to be the developments of revenue, order backlog and EBITDA. These meters should be monitored systematically on quarterly basis and reported to the company management in a brief and informative way. The monitoring model was based on spreadsheet construction with key characteristics being usability, flexibility and simplicity. The model acts as a centered storage for financial competitor information as well as a reporting tool. The current market situation is strongly affected by the economic boom in the recent years and future challenges can be clearly seen in declining order backlogs. The case company has succeeded well related to its comparison group during the observation period since its business volume and profitability have developed in the best way.
Resumo:
Identification of order of an Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) by the usual graphical method is subjective. Hence, there is a need of developing a technique to identify the order without employing the graphical investigation of series autocorrelations. To avoid subjectivity, this thesis focuses on determining the order of the Autoregressive Moving Average Model using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). The RJMCMC selects the model from a set of the models suggested by better fitting, standard deviation errors and the frequency of accepted data. Together with deep analysis of the classical Box-Jenkins modeling methodology the integration with MCMC algorithms has been focused through parameter estimation and model fitting of ARMA models. This helps to verify how well the MCMC algorithms can treat the ARMA models, by comparing the results with graphical method. It has been seen that the MCMC produced better results than the classical time series approach.
Resumo:
The dissertation is based on four articles dealing with recalcitrant lignin water purification. Lignin, a complicated substance and recalcitrant to most treatment technologies, inhibits seriously pulp and paper industry waste management. Therefore, lignin is studied, using WO as a process method for its degradation. A special attention is paid to the improvement in biodegradability and the reduction of lignin content, since they have special importance for any following biological treatment. In most cases wet oxidation is not used as a complete ' mineralization method but as a pre treatment in order to eliminate toxic components and to reduce the high level of organics produced. The combination of wet oxidation with a biological treatment can be a good option due to its effectiveness and its relatively low technology cost. The literature part gives an overview of Advanced Oxidation Processes (AOPs). A hot oxidation process, wet oxidation (WO), is investigated in detail and is the AOP process used in the research. The background and main principles of wet oxidation, its industrial applications, the combination of wet oxidation with other water treatment technologies, principal reactions in WO, and key aspects of modelling and reaction kinetics are presented. There is also given a wood composition and lignin characterization (chemical composition, structure and origin), lignin containing waters, lignin degradation and reuse possibilities, and purification practices for lignin containing waters. The aim of the research was to investigate the effect of the operating conditions of WO, such as temperature, partial pressure of oxygen, pH and initial concentration of wastewater, on the efficiency, and to enhance the process and estimate optimal conditions for WO of recalcitrant lignin waters. Two different waters are studied (a lignin water model solution and debarking water from paper industry) to give as appropriate conditions as possible. Due to the great importance of re using and minimizing the residues of industries, further research is carried out using residual ash of an Estonian power plant as a catalyst in wet oxidation of lignin-containing water. Developing a kinetic model that includes in the prediction such parameters as TOC gives the opportunity to estimate the amount of emerging inorganic substances (degradation rate of waste) and not only the decrease of COD and BOD. The degradation target compound, lignin is included into the model through its COD value (CODligning). Such a kinetic model can be valuable in developing WO treatment processes for lignin containing waters, or other wastewaters containing one or more target compounds. In the first article, wet oxidation of "pure" lignin water was investigated as a model case with the aim of degrading lignin and enhancing water biodegradability. The experiments were performed at various temperatures (110 -190°C), partial oxygen pressures (0.5 -1.5 MPa) and pH (5, 9 and 12). The experiments showed that increasing the temperature notably improved the processes efficiency. 75% lignin reduction was detected at the lowest temperature tested and lignin removal improved to 100% at 190°C. The effect of temperature on the COD removal rate was lower, but clearly detectable. 53% of organics were oxidized at 190°C. The effect of pH occurred mostly on lignin removal. Increasing the pH enhanced the lignin removal efficiency from 60% to nearly 100%. A good biodegradability ratio (over 0.5) was generally achieved. The aim of the second article was to develop a mathematical model for "pure" lignin wet oxidation using lumped characteristics of water (COD, BOD, TOC) and lignin concentration. The model agreed well with the experimental data (R2 = 0.93 at pH 5 and 12) and concentration changes during wet oxidation followed adequately the experimental results. The model also showed correctly the trend of biodegradability (BOD/COD) changes. In the third article, the purpose of the research was to estimate optimal conditions for wet oxidation (WO) of debarking water from the paper industry. The WO experiments were' performed at various temperatures, partial oxygen pressures and pH. The experiments showed that lignin degradation and organics removal are affected remarkably by temperature and pH. 78-97% lignin reduction was detected at different WO conditions. Initial pH 12 caused faster removal of tannins/lignin content; but initial pH 5 was more effective for removal of total organics, represented by COD and TOC. Most of the decrease in organic substances concentrations occurred in the first 60 minutes. The aim of the fourth article was to compare the behaviour of two reaction kinetic models, based on experiments of wet oxidation of industrial debarking water under different conditions. The simpler model took into account only the changes in COD, BOD and TOC; the advanced model was similar to the model used in the second article. Comparing the results of the models, the second model was found to be more suitable for describing the kinetics of wet oxidation of debarking water. The significance of the reactions involved was compared on the basis of the model: for instance, lignin degraded first to other chemically oxidizable compounds rather than directly to biodegradable products. Catalytic wet oxidation of lignin containing waters is briefly presented at the end of the dissertation. Two completely different catalysts were used: a commercial Pt catalyst and waste power plant ash. CWO showed good performance using 1 g/L of residual ash gave lignin removal of 86% and COD removal of 39% at 150°C (a lower temperature and pressure than with WO). It was noted that the ash catalyst caused a remarkable removal rate for lignin degradation already during the pre heating for `zero' time, 58% of lignin was degraded. In general, wet oxidation is not recommended for use as a complete mineralization method, but as a pre treatment phase to eliminate toxic or difficultly biodegradable components and to reduce the high level of organics. Biological treatment is an appropriate post treatment method since easily biodegradable organic matter remains after the WO process. The combination of wet oxidation with subsequent biological treatment can be an effective option for the treatment of lignin containing waters.
Resumo:
Mix marketing and relationships marketing are two major approaches that often form a basis for organizational marketing planning. The superiority of these approaches has been debated for long without any rational conclusion. Lately there have been studies indicating that both of the major approaches are many times used side by side in marketing planning. There have been also studies suggesting that even combining the mix marketing and relationship marketing approaches might be possible. The aim of this thesis is to provide knowledge about the usage of mix marketing and relationship marketing approaches in organizations and possibilities in combining the approaches. Also a settlement of strengths, weaknesses and risks of combining is intended to provide. The objectives were met through the literature and a case study research. In the case study, interviews were conducted in order to gain a deeper knowledge about marketing planning in various organizations. Based on this study, the combining of the major marketing approaches will be possible and even recommended when keeping in mind few aspects which might cause some troubles in the combining process.
Resumo:
Direct leaching is an alternative to conventional roast-leach-electrowin (RLE) zinc production method. The basic reaction of direct leach method is the oxidation of sphalerite concentrate in acidic liquid by ferric iron. The reaction mechanism and kinetics, mass transfer and current modifications of zinc concentrate direct leaching process are considered. Particular attention is paid to the oxidation-reduction cycle of iron and its role in direct leaching of zinc concentrate, since it can be one of the limiting factors of the leaching process under certain conditions. The oxidation-reduction cycle of iron was experimentally studied with goal of gaining new knowledge for developing the direct leaching of zinc concentrate. In order to obtain this aim, ferrous iron oxidation experiments were carried out. Affect of such parameters as temperature, pressure, sulfuric acid concentration, ferrous iron and copper concentrations was studied. Based on the experimental results, mathematical model of the ferrous iron oxidation rate was developed. According to results obtained during the study, the reaction rate orders for ferrous iron concentration, oxygen concentration and copper concentration are 0.777, 0.652 and 0.0951 respectively. Values predicted by model were in good concordance with the experimental results. The reliability of estimated parameters was evaluated by MCMC analysis which showed good parameters reliability.
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to develop co-operation between business units of the company operating in graphic industry. The development was done by searching synergy opportunities between these business units. The final aim was to form a business model, which is based on co-operation of these business units.The literature review of this thesis examines synergies and especially the process concerning the search and implementation of synergies. Also the concept of business model and its components are examined. The research was done by using qualitative research method. The main data acquiring method to the empirical part was theme interviews. The data was analyzed using thematisation and content analysis.The results of the study include seven identified possible synergies and a business model, which is based on the co-operation of the business units. The synergy opportunities are evaluated and the implementation order of the synergies is suggested. The presented synergies create the base for the proposed business model.