Incest aversion : the evolutionary roots of individual regulation

Den evolutionära förklaringen till den allmänt utbredda incestaversionen, dvs. motviljan för sex med nära släktingar, försöker besvara såväl frågan om varför incestaversionen gynnats i det naturliga urvalet som frågan om hur denna aversion regleras på individuell nivå. Eftersom inavlade barn har en försämrad biologisk duglighet än andra barn, medför kostnaderna av denna icke-optimala reproduktion ett selektionstryck mot inavel. I en serie studier visade vi att eftersom kvinnor i allmänhet satsar mer biologiska resurser på sina barn än vad män gör, känner kvinnor starkare incestaversion än män och eftersom det endast är fertila kvinnor som riskerar satsa resurser i en inavlad avkomma har även fertila kvinnor högre incestaversion än icke-fertila kvinnor. Vi visade också att de biologiska kostnaderna av inavel inte begränsas till enbart de individer som har incest. Eftersom alla våra biologiska släktingar sannolikt delar våra alleler speglar incestaversionen även de biologiska kostnader som incest mellan våra släktingar medför åt oss. Den psykologiska mekanism med vilken incestsituationer bedöms har hittills varit okänd. I våra studier testades teorin om självreflekterande empati. Enligt den teorin bedöms sådana situationer emotionellt genom att man själv föreställer sig ha sex med motsvarande släkting och känslan som väcks i denna process ger därefter emotionell information till bedömningen av andras incest. I tre delstudier fann vi att självreflektion var positivt associerat med styrkan av aversion gentemot andras incest, vilket stöder teorin om självreflekterande empati.

Culture in business interaction: an individual perspective : empirical studies in Finnish-Russian business relationships

The main objective of this doctoral dissertation is to reach a holistic and indepth understanding of the intercultural interaction within dyadic business relationships through the perspective of individual managers. The empirical setting is dyadic business relationships between Russian and Finnish firms in construction and engineering industries. The motivation for the study mainly arose from: 1) the lack of business marketing literature considering cultural and individual perspectives; 2) the need to find ways to study intercultural issues in business relationships, other than through the application of models derived from the work of Hofstede (1980). The study consists of two parts, an introductory essay containing the research objectives, theoretical foundations, methodological choices, limitations and contributions, and original research articles. The four articles each address a sub-objective: 1) to develop an understanding of intercultural business relationships development, cultural adaptation, and its role in the development of trust (Article 1); 2) to develop an appropriate methodological framework for studying business interaction from a cultural and individual perspective (Article 2); 3) to develop an understanding of the role of culture in individual manager’s sensemaking of interaction events in business relationships (Article 3); and 4) to develop an appropriate theoretical framework for studying interactive intercultural business relationships in international industrial markets (Article 4). The ontological and epistemological foundations are built on the interpretivist/ social constructivist view of reality. Interaction, in this study, is seen as being conducted between individuals, who are the key representative actors of their firms. In turn, culture is regarded both as an independent context existing prior to the individuals’ participation in it, and as knowledge incorporated by the individuals, who use it in sensemaking and interaction across cultures. The methods applied in the articles are: an interpretive qualitative study (Article 1), a literature review and conceptual analysis (Article 2), a structural analysis of the narratives and a metaphor analysis (Article 3), and a literature review and conceptual analysis (Article 4). The main contributions are the following. First, it contributes to business marketing literature by developing the theoretical, conceptual, and methodological underpinning of IMP theories in relation to culture. Second, the thesis contributes to the growing literature on managerial sensemaking in industrial markets by looking at it from a cultural perspective, as well as emphasizing the importance of figurative language in cultural sensemaking.

Opportunities, constraints and constrained opportunities – A study on mothers’ working time patterns in 22 European countries

The aim of this study was to analyse mothers’ working time patterns across 22 European countries. The focus was on three questions: how much mothers prefer to work, how much they actually work, and to what degree their preferred and actual working times are (in)consistent with each other. The focus was on cross-national differences in mothers’ working time patterns, comparison of mothers’ working times to that of childless women and fathers, as well as on individual- and country-level factors that explain the variation between them. In the theoretical background, the departure point was an integrative theoretical approach where the assumption is that there are various kinds of explanations for the differences in mothers’ working time patterns – namely structural, cultural and institutional – , and that these factors are laid in two levels: individual- and country-levels. Data were extracted from the European Social Survey (ESS) 2010 / 2011. The results showed that mothers’ working time patterns, both preferred and actual working times, varied across European countries. Four clusters were formed to illustrate the differences. In the full-time pattern, full-time work was the most important form of work, leaving all other working time forms marginal. The full-time pattern was perceived in terms of preferred working times in Bulgaria and Portugal. In polarised pattern countries, fulltime work was also important, but it was accompanied by a large share of mothers not working at all. In the case of preferred working times, many Eastern and Southern European countries followed it whereas in terms of actual working times it included all Eastern and Southern European countries as well as Finland. The combination pattern was characterised by the importance of long part-time hours and full-time work. It was the preferred working time pattern in the Nordic countries, France, Slovenia, and Spain, but Belgium, Denmark, France, Norway, and Sweden followed it in terms of actual working times. The fourth cluster that described mothers’ working times was called the part-time pattern, and it was illustrated by the prevalence of short and long part-time work. In the case of preferred working times, it was followed in Belgium, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands and Switzerland. Besides Belgium, the part-time pattern was followed in the same countries in terms of actual working times. The consistency between preferred and actual working times was rather strong in a majority of countries. However, six countries fell under different working time patterns when preferred and actual working times were compared. Comparison of working mothers’, childless women’s, and fathers’ working times showed that differences between these groups were surprisingly small. It was only in part-time pattern countries that working mothers worked significantly shorter hours than working childless women and fathers. Results therefore revealed that when mothers’ working times are under study, an important question regarding the population examined is whether it consists of all mothers or only working mothers. Results moreover supported the use of the integrative theoretical approach when studying mothers’ working time patterns. Results indicate that mothers’ working time patterns in all countries are shaped by various opportunities and constraints, which are comprised of structural, cultural, institutional, and individual-level factors.

Host Parasite Interactions in Damselflies. From Individuals to Populations

The main goal of this thesis is to increase understanding on evolutionary and ecological factors that have contributed to differences in parasite numbers in insects. Furthermore, the thesis addresses the effects of parasites on their hosts. The most important findings were: The Northern damselfly’s (Coenagrion hastulatum) immune response to artificial pathogen increased with increasing parasite numbers (Article I). Marginal, more isolated C. hastulatum populations on the edge of distribution have fewer parasites when compared to distribution’s core populations (Article II). The Banded damselfly Calopteryx splendens individuals with higher homozygosity have more parasites, however, the rate of homozygosity did not differ between populations (Article III). Parasite prevalence was affected by whether the host species occurred in allopatric or sympatric population: sympatric C. splendens populations with sister species the Beautiful damselfly Calopteryx virgo harbored more parasites (Article IV). Parasites were associated with the wing spot size, an ornament under sexual selection, and thus may play an important role in character displacement, i.e. the size of the wing spot (Article V). To conclude with, this thesis brings about new information on the parasite infection patterns in insects, proposing several factors to contribute to these patters, as well as it addresses the effects of parasites on their hosts, from individual to population level.

Individual learner, peer group and teacher roles in fostering autonomous language-learning behaviour

Julkaisumaa: Bulgaria

“Why share in uncertain conditions?” Factors of individual level knowledge sharing in offshoring cases

The objective of this Master’s Thesis was to research factors influencing and enhancing individual level knowledge sharing in offshore projects which often involve uncertainty of the knowledge provider’s own future. The purpose was to understand why individuals are willing to share their knowledge under these kinds of circumstances. In addition the goal was to identify obstacles to interpersonal knowledge sharing in order to understand how to mitigate their influence. The research was conducted as a qualitative multiple case study in a global IT company, and the data was gathered using semi-structured personal theme interviews within two different offshore projects. In order to a gain a wider perspective on the matter, some management representatives were interviewed as well. Data was analysed with the inductive content analysis method. Results of the study indicate that individuals are willing to share their knowledge despite of uncertainty if they are motivated, if they are provided with opportunities to do so, and if they have skills, competence and experience to share their knowledge. A strong knowledge sharing culture in the organization or team also works as a strong incentive for individual level knowledge sharing. The findings suggest that even under uncertain conditions it is possible to encourage people to share their knowledge if uncertainty can be decreased to a bearable level, a robust and personal connection and relationship between the knowledge provider and acquirer can be created and suitable opportunities for knowledge sharing are provided. In addition, based on the results the support and commitment of management and HR in addition to favourable environmental circumstances play an essential role in building a bridge between the knowledge provider and acquirer in order to create a virtual environment and space for knowledge sharing: Ba.

Social Solidarity and Fear of Crime - Community and Individual Approaches in Responses to Mass Violence after School Shootings

The aim of this study was to examine community and individual approaches in responses to mass violence after the school shooting incidents in Jokela (November 2007) and Kauhajoki (September 2008), Finland. In considering the community approach, responses to any shocking criminal event may have integrative, as well as disintegrative effects, within the neighborhood. The integration perspective argues that a heinous criminal event within one’s community is a matter of offence to collectively held feelings and beliefs, and increases perceived solidarity; whereas the disintegration perspective suggests that a criminal event weakens the social fabric of community life by increasing fear of crime and mistrust among locals. In considering the individual approach, socio-demographic factors, such as one’s gender, are typically significant indicators, which explain variation in fear of crime. Beyond this, people are not equally exposed to violent crime and therefore prior victimization and event related experiences may further explain why people differ in their sensitivity to risk from mass violence. Finally, factors related to subjective mental health, such as depressed mood, are also likely to moderate individual differences in responses to mass violence. This study is based on the correlational design of four independent cross-sectional postal surveys. The sampling frames (N=700) for the surveys were the Finnish speaking adult population aged 18–74-years. The first mail survey in Jokela (n=330) was conducted between May and June 2008, approximately six months from the shooting incident at the local high-school. The second Jokela survey (n=278) was conducted in May–June of 2009, 18 months removed from the incident. The first survey in Kauhajoki (n=319) was collected six months after the incident at the local University of Applied Sciences, March– April 2009, and the second (n=339) in March–April 2010, approximately 18 months after the event. Linear and ordinal regression and path analysis are used as methods of analyses. The school shootings in Jokela and Kauhajoki were extremely disturbing events, which deeply affected the communities involved. However, based on the results collected, community responses to mass violence between the two localities were different. An increase in social solidarity appears to apply in the case of the Jokela community, but not in the case of the Kauhajoki community. Thus a criminal event does not necessarily impact the wider community. Every empirical finding is most likely related to different contextual and event-specific factors. Beyond this, community responses to mass violence in Jokela also indicated that the incident was related to a more general sense of insecurity and was also associating with perceived community deterioration and further suggests that responses to mass violence may have both integrating and disintegrating effects. Moreover, community responses to mass violence should also be examined in relation to broader social anxieties and as a proxy for generalized insecurity. Community response is an emotive process and incident related feelings are perhaps projected onto other identifiable concerns. However, this may open the door for social errors and, despite integrative effects, this may also have negative consequences within the neighborhood. The individual approach suggests that women are more fearful than men when a threat refers to violent crime. Young women (aged 18–34) were the most worried age and gender group as concerns perception of threat from mass violence at schools compared to young men (aged 18–34), who were also the least worried age and gender group when compared to older men. It was also found that concerns about mass violence were stronger among respondents with the lowest level of monthly household income compared to financially better-off respondents. Perhaps more importantly, responses to mass violence were affected by the emotional proximity to the event; and worry about the recurrence of school shootings was stronger among respondents who either were a parent of a school-aged child, or knew a victim. Finally, results indicate that psychological wellbeing is an important individual level factor. Respondents who expressed depressed mood consistently expressed their concerns about mass violence and community deterioration. Systematic assessments of the impact of school shooting events on communities are therefore needed. This requires the consolidation of community and individual approaches. Comparative study designs would further benefit from international collaboration across disciplines. Extreme school violence has also become a national concern and deeper understanding of crime related anxieties in contemporary Finland also requires community-based surveys.

Organizational creativity – Hegemonic and alternative discourses

SUMMARY Organizational creativity – hegemonic and alternative discourses Over the course of recent developments in the societal and business environment, the concept of creativity has been brought into new arenas. The rise of ‘creative industries’ and the idea of creativity as a form of capital have attracted the interests of business and management professionals – as well as academics. As the notion of creativity has been adopted in the organization studies literature, the concept of organizational creativity has been introduced to refer to creativity that takes place in an organizational context. This doctoral thesis focuses on organizational creativity, and its purpose is to explore and problematize the hegemonic organizational creativity discourse and to provide alternative viewpoints for theorizing about creativity in organizations. Taking a discourse theory approach, this thesis, first, provides an outline of the currently predominant, i.e. hegemonic, discourse on organizational creativity, which is explored regarding themes, perspectives, methods and paradigms. Second, this thesis consists of five studies that act as illustrations of certain alternative viewpoints. Through these exemplary studies, this thesis sheds light on the limitations and taken-for-granted aspects of the hegemonic discourse and discusses what these alternative viewpoints could offer for the understanding of and theorizing for organizational creativity. This study leans on an assumption that the development of organizational creativity knowledge and the related discourse is not inevitable or progressive but rather contingent. The organizational creativity discourse has developed in a certain direction, meaning that some themes, perspectives, and methods, as well as assumptions, values, and objectives, have gained a hegemonic position over others, and are therefore often taken for granted and considered valid and relevant. The hegemonization of certain aspects, however, contributes to the marginalization of others. The thesis concludes that the hegemonic discourse on organizational creativity is based on an extensive coverage of certain themes and perspectives, such as those focusing on individual cognitive processes, motivation, or organizational climate and their relation to creativity, to name a few. The limited focus on some themes and the confinement to certain prevalent perspectives, however, results in the marginalization of other themes and perspectives. The negative, often unintended, consequences, implications, and side effects of creativity, the factors that might hinder or prevent creativity, and a deeper inquiry into the ontology and epistemology of creativity have attracted relatively marginal interest. The material embeddedness of organizational creativity, in other words, the physical organizational environment as well as the human body and its non-cognitive resources, has largely been overlooked in the hegemonic discourse, although thereare studies in this area that give reason to believe that they might prove relevant for the understanding of creativity. The hegemonic discourse is based on an individual-centered understanding of creativity which overattributes creativity to an individual and his/her cognitive capabilities, while simultaneously neglecting how, for instance, the physical environment, artifacts, social dynamics and interactions condition organizational creativity. Due to historical reasons, quantitative as well as qualitative yet functionally- oriented studies have predominated the organizational creativity discourse, although studies falling into the interpretationist paradigm have gradually become more popular. The two radical paradigms, as well as methodological and analytical approaches typical of radical research, can be considered to hold a marginal position in the field of organizational creativity. The hegemonic organizational creativity discourse has provided extensive findings related to many aspects of organizational creativity, although the con- ceptualizations and understandings of organizational creativity in the hegemonic discourse are also in many respects limited and one-sided. The hegemonic discourse is based on an assumption that creativity is desirable, good, necessary, or even obligatory, and should be encouraged and nourished. The conceptualiza- tions of creativity favor the kind of creativity which is useful, valuable and can be harnessed for productivity. The current conceptualization is limited to the type of creativity that is acceptable and fits the managerial ideology, and washes out any risky, seemingly useless, or negative aspects of creativity. It also limits the possible meanings and representations that ‘creativity’ has in the respective discourse, excluding many meanings of creativity encountered in other discourses. The excessive focus on creativity that is good, positive, productive and fits the managerial agenda while ignoring other forms and aspects of creativity, however, contributes to the dilution of the notion. Practices aimed at encouraging the kind of creativity may actually entail a risk of fostering moderate alterations rather than more radical novelty, as well as management and organizational practices which limit creative endeavors, rather than increase their likelihood. The thesis concludes that although not often given the space and attention they deserve, there are alternative conceptualizations and understandings of organizational creativity which embrace a broader notion of creativity. The inability to accommodate the ‘other’ understandings and viewpoints within the organizational creativity discourse runs a risk of misrepresenting the complex and many-sided phenomenon of creativity in organizational context. Keywords: Organizational creativity, creativity, organization studies, discourse theory, hegemony

Individual Crimes or a Sociological Phenomenon: A Critical discourse analysis of the 2014 Royal Canadian Mounted Police National Operational Overview on missing and murdered Indigenous women in Canada

Pro gradu -tutkielma käsittelee Kanadan poliisivoimien, Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), vuoden 2014 operationaalista raporttia Kanadan kadonneista ja murhatuista alkuperäiskansojen naisista. Heitä katoaa ja murhataan Kanadassa suhteessa huomattavasti enemmän kuin muita naisia. Aihe on hyvin ajankohtainen sekä kriittinen ja siihen on paikallisten organisaatioiden lisäksi kiinnittänyt huomiota mm. Amnesty International ja Yhdistyneet Kansakunnat. Tilannetta pidetään jo ihmisoikeuskriisinä ja sen puolesta puhuminen voidaan nähdä osana laajempaa kansannousua alkuperäiskansojen oikeuksien puolesta. Kanadan hallitusta sekä poliisivoimia on syytetty välinpitämättömyydestä ja rasismista, poliiseja jopa väkivallasta alkuperäiskansojen naisia kohtaan. Kanadan hallitus ei myönnä ongelman olevan sosiologinen ilmiö, vaan pääministerin mukaan naisten katoamiset ja murhat ovat yksittäisiä rikoksia. Tilanteen taustalla on laajempi ongelma, joka juontaa juurensa kolonialismista, alkuperäiskansojen pakkokoulutuksesta ja heidän kulttuurinsa sekä identiteettinsä tuhoamisesta. Ennakkoluulot ja stereotypiat elävät yhä vahvana luoden heikon aseman alkuperäiskansojen edustajille ja tässä tapauksessa erityisesti naisille, joita myös usein syytetään omista ongelmistaan. Tutkielma selvittää, onko tämä operationaalinen raportti eriarvoisuutta, stereotypioita sekä ennakkoluuloja ylläpitävä ja tukeeko se näkemystä sosiologisesta ilmiöstä. Poliisivoimat ovat yhteiskunnassa vaikutusvaltaisessa asemassa ja voivat edesauttaa, jatkaa ja voimistaa syrjivää ajattelua, käytöstä ja viestintää. Vaikka he myös ajavat alkuperäiskansojen etuja, tulee heidän toimintaansa ja täten tätä kyseistä raporttia tarkastella kriittisesti. Tutkielma keskittyy kriittiseen diskurssianalyysiin (Fairclough 1995, Wodak & Meyer 2009). Raportin teksti ei ole avoimesti diskriminoivaa ja keskittyy tilastojen ja lukujen raportointiin sekä vertailuun, luoden samalla kuvan asianomaisista sekä tilanteesta yleisesti. Makroanalyysi (van Dijk 1977, 1980) mahdollistaa korkeamman tason ajatusten ja ideoiden esille tuonnin paljastaen ns. rivien välistä löytyvän viestinnän. Näistä makroanalyysin tuloksista etsitään erilaisia diskurssistrategioita (Reisigl & Wodak 2001), joiden avulla luodaan mm. kuva positiivisesta itsestä ja negatiivisesta toisesta. Näitä tuloksia tuetaan lyhyellä multimodaalisella analyysillä, joka keskittyy lähinnä raportin kahteen kuvaan (Kress & van Leeuwen 2006). Lopuksi tuloksista keskustellaan suhteessa yhteiskunnan valtasuhteisiin (Foucault 1976), rasismiin ja seksismiin. Analyysin perusteella raportti on selkeästi diskriminoiva. Se tuo esiin vanhoja stereotypioita ja ennakkoluuloja, esittää tilanteen alkuperäiskansojen sisäisenä ongelmana, jättää mainitsematta tilanteen taustat ja luo hyvin positiivisen kuvan poliisivoimista (RCMP). Tällä tavoin se ylläpitää yhteiskunnan epätasapainoisia valtasuhteita ja alkuperäiskansojen naisten heikompaa ja marginalisoitua asemaa. Raportti todistaa kuinka syvällä Kanadan yhteiskunnassa jopa institutionaalisella tasolla nämä ajatukset piilevät, sillä diskriminaatio ulottuu tapausten syistä niiden käsittelyyn ja raportointiin. Tilanne on huolestuttava ja voidaan nähdä sosiologisena ilmiönä. Poliisivoimien tulisi lisätä sisäistä koulutusta asian suhteen sekä hallituksen tutkia tätä ilmiönä ja paneutua sen selvittämiseen laaja-alaisesti ja läpinäkyvästi.

Individual Crimes or a Sociological Phenomenon: A Critical discourse analysis of the 2014 Royal Canadian Mounted Police National Operational Overview on missing and murdered Indigenous women in Canada

Pro gradu -tutkielma käsittelee Kanadan poliisivoimien, Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), vuoden 2014 operationaalista raporttia Kanadan kadonneista ja murhatuista alkuperäiskansojen naisista. Heitä katoaa ja murhataan Kanadassa suhteessa huomattavasti enemmän kuin muita naisia. Aihe on hyvin ajankohtainen sekä kriittinen ja siihen on paikallisten organisaatioiden lisäksi kiinnittänyt huomiota mm. Amnesty International ja Yhdistyneet Kansakunnat. Tilannetta pidetään jo ihmisoikeuskriisinä ja sen puolesta puhuminen voidaan nähdä osana laajempaa kansannousua alkuperäiskansojen oikeuksien puolesta. Kanadan hallitusta sekä poliisivoimia on syytetty välinpitämättömyydestä ja rasismista, poliiseja jopa väkivallasta alkuperäiskansojen naisia kohtaan. Kanadan hallitus ei myönnä ongelman olevan sosiologinen ilmiö, vaan pääministerin mukaan naisten katoamiset ja murhat ovat yksittäisiä rikoksia. Tilanteen taustalla on laajempi ongelma, joka juontaa juurensa kolonialismista, alkuperäiskansojen pakkokoulutuksesta ja heidän kulttuurinsa sekä identiteettinsä tuhoamisesta. Ennakkoluulot ja stereotypiat elävät yhä vahvana luoden heikon aseman alkuperäiskansojen edustajille ja tässä tapauksessa erityisesti naisille, joita myös usein syytetään omista ongelmistaan. Tutkielma selvittää, onko tämä operationaalinen raportti eriarvoisuutta, stereotypioita sekä ennakkoluuloja ylläpitävä ja tukeeko se näkemystä sosiologisesta ilmiöstä. Poliisivoimat ovat yhteiskunnassa vaikutusvaltaisessa asemassa ja voivat edesauttaa, jatkaa ja voimistaa syrjivää ajattelua, käytöstä ja viestintää. Vaikka he myös ajavat alkuperäiskansojen etuja, tulee heidän toimintaansa ja täten tätä kyseistä raporttia tarkastella kriittisesti. Tutkielma keskittyy kriittiseen diskurssianalyysiin (Fairclough 1995, Wodak & Meyer 2009). Raportin teksti ei ole avoimesti diskriminoivaa ja keskittyy tilastojen ja lukujen raportointiin sekä vertailuun, luoden samalla kuvan asianomaisista sekä tilanteesta yleisesti. Makroanalyysi (van Dijk 1977, 1980) mahdollistaa korkeamman tason ajatusten ja ideoiden esille tuonnin paljastaen ns. rivien välistä löytyvän viestinnän. Näistä makroanalyysin tuloksista etsitään erilaisia diskurssistrategioita (Reisigl & Wodak 2001), joiden avulla luodaan mm. kuva positiivisesta itsestä ja negatiivisesta toisesta. Näitä tuloksia tuetaan lyhyellä multimodaalisella analyysillä, joka keskittyy lähinnä raportin kahteen kuvaan (Kress & van Leeuwen 2006). Lopuksi tuloksista keskustellaan suhteessa yhteiskunnan valtasuhteisiin (Foucault 1976), rasismiin ja seksismiin. Analyysin perusteella raportti on selkeästi diskriminoiva. Se tuo esiin vanhoja stereotypioita ja ennakkoluuloja, esittää tilanteen alkuperäiskansojen sisäisenä ongelmana, jättää mainitsematta tilanteen taustat ja luo hyvin positiivisen kuvan poliisivoimista (RCMP). Tällä tavoin se ylläpitää yhteiskunnan epätasapainoisia valtasuhteita ja alkuperäiskansojen naisten heikompaa ja marginalisoitua asemaa. Raportti todistaa kuinka syvällä Kanadan yhteiskunnassa jopa institutionaalisella tasolla nämä ajatukset piilevät, sillä diskriminaatio ulottuu tapausten syistä niiden käsittelyyn ja raportointiin. Tilanne on huolestuttava ja voidaan nähdä sosiologisena ilmiönä. Poliisivoimien tulisi lisätä sisäistä koulutusta asian suhteen sekä hallituksen tutkia tätä ilmiönä ja paneutua sen selvittämiseen laaja-alaisesti ja läpinäkyvästi.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.