Development of Rouble Exchange Rate in Russia

NORDIn julkaisu 45 käsittelee ruplan kehitystä. Vuonna 1998 rupla kärsi rajusta rahanarvon alenemisesta, minkä jälkiseuraksena investointi alkoi Venäjällä kasvaa. Uusi devalvoitu ruplan vaihtokurssi toi hintakilpailykykyä paikalliselle teollisuudelle. Tämän lisäksi Venäjän öljyn vientihintojen nousu ja maakaasujakelu ovat edesauttaneet taloudellista kasvua viime aikoina. Tämän noususuhdanteen vallitessa inflaatiopaine on pysynyt korkealla. Hinnannousut ovat olleet korkeampia kuinEU:ssa, Venäjän pääkauppakumppanilla. Kuitenkin, ruplan/euron vaihtokurssit ovat pysyneet nimellisesti melko vakaina tällä vuosikymmenellä. Tämä tarkoittaa, että todellisuudessa rupla vahvistuu euroa vastaan, mikä heikentää Venäjän kansainvälistä kilpailykykyä.

Formation and Control of Trace Metal Emissions in Co-Firing of Biomass, Peat, and Wastes in Fluidised Bed Combustors

Environmentally harmful consequences of fossil fuel utilisation andthe landfilling of wastes have increased the interest among the energy producers to consider the use of alternative fuels like wood fuels and Refuse-Derived Fuels, RDFs. The fluidised bed technology that allows the flexible use of a variety of different fuels is commonly used at small- and medium-sized power plants ofmunicipalities and industry in Finland. Since there is only one mass-burn plantcurrently in operation in the country and no intention to build new ones, the co-firing of pre-processed wastes in fluidised bed boilers has become the most generally applied waste-to-energy concept in Finland. The recently validated EU Directive on Incineration of Wastes aims to mitigate environmentally harmful pollutants of waste incineration and co-incineration of wastes with conventional fuels. Apart from gaseous flue gas pollutants and dust, the emissions of toxic tracemetals are limited. The implementation of the Directive's restrictions in the Finnish legislation is assumed to limit the co-firing of waste fuels, due to the insufficient reduction of the regulated air pollutants in the existing flue gas cleaning devices. Trace metals emission formation and reduction in the ESP, the condensing wet scrubber, the fabric filter, and the humidification reactor were studied, experimentally, in full- and pilot-scale combustors utilising the bubbling fluidised bed technology, and, theoretically, by means of reactor model calculations. The core of the model is a thermodynamic equilibrium analysis. The experiments were carried out with wood chips, sawdust, and peat, and their refuse-derived fuel, RDF, blends. In all, ten different fuels or fuel blends were tested. Relatively high concentrations of trace metals in RDFs compared to the concentrations of these metals in wood fuels increased the trace metal concentrations in the flue gas after the boiler ten- to hundred-folds, when RDF was co-fired with sawdust in a full-scale BFB boiler. In the case of peat, lesser increase in trace metal concentrations was observed, due to the higher initial trace metal concentrations of peat compared to sawdust. Despite the high removal rate of most of the trace metals in the ESP, the Directive emission limits for trace metals were exceeded in each of the RDF co-firing tests. The dominat trace metals in fluegas after the ESP were Cu, Pb and Mn. In the condensing wet scrubber, the flue gas trace metal emissions were reduced below the Directive emission limits, whenRDF pellet was used as a co-firing fuel together with sawdust and peat. High chlorine content of the RDFs enhanced the mercuric chloride formation and hence the mercury removal in the ESP and scrubber. Mercury emissions were lower than theDirective emission limit for total Hg, 0.05 mg/Nm3, in all full-scale co-firingtests already in the flue gas after the ESP. The pilot-scale experiments with aBFB combustor equipped with a fabric filter revealed that the fabric filter alone is able to reduce the trace metal concentrations, including mercury, in the flue gas during the RDF co-firing approximately to the same level as they are during the wood chip firing. Lower trace metal emissions than the Directive limits were easily reached even with a 40% thermal share of RDF co-firing with sawdust.Enrichment of trace metals in the submicron fly ash particle fraction because of RDF co-firing was not observed in the test runs where sawdust was used as the main fuel. The combustion of RDF pellets with peat caused an enrichment of As, Cd, Co, Pb, Sb, and V in the submicron particle mode. Accumulation and release oftrace metals in the bed material was examined by means of a bed material analysis, mass balance calculations and a reactor model. Lead, zinc and copper were found to have a tendency to be accumulated in the bed material but also to have a tendency to be released from the bed material into the combustion gases, if the combustion conditions were changed. The concentration of the trace metal in the combustion gases of the bubbling fluidised bed boiler was found to be a summary of trace metal fluxes from three main sources. They were (1) the trace metal flux from the burning fuel particle (2) the trace metal flux from the ash in the bed, and (3) the trace metal flux from the active alkali metal layer on the sand (and ash) particles in the bed. The amount of chlorine in the system, the combustion temperature, the fuel ash composition and the saturation state of the bed material in regard to trace metals were discovered to be key factors affecting therelease process. During the co-firing of waste fuels with variable amounts of e.g. ash and chlorine, it is extremely important to consider the possible ongoingaccumulation and/or release of the trace metals in the bed, when determining the flue gas trace metal emissions. If the state of the combustion process in regard to trace metals accumulation and/or release in the bed material is not known,it may happen that emissions from the bed material rather than the combustion of the fuel in question are measured and reported.

Scenario analysis in evaluation of emerging technology - Case Bluetooth

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää millaisia ympäristöskenaarioita tietoliikenteelle toimialana voidaan rakentaa ja mitkä näistä skenaarioista suosivat Bluetoothin diffuusiota ja kehittymistä nykyisten tuote- ja palvelunäkemysten valossa. Lisäksi pyrittiin arvioimaan, mitkä ympäristötekijät ja suuntaukset saattavat vaikuttaa Bluetoothin diffuusioon. Tutkimus rajoittui eurooppalaisen tietoliikenneympäristön tarkasteluun viiden vuoden aikana. Tietoliikennetoimialan nykytilaa ja tulevaisuutta koskevan kirjallisuuden pohjalta luotiin kolme alustavaa skenaariorunkoa. Näitä runkoja arvioitiin asiantuntijahaastattelujen avulla, jotta skenaarioista saataisiin monipuolisempia ja niiden johdonmukaisuutta voitaisiin parantaa. Lopullisia skenaarioita verrattiin Bluetoothin käyttökohteista esitettyihin näkemyksiin. Skenaarioiden teemat olivat “Fokusoidut bisnessovellukset”, “Viihdettä massoille” sekä “Tietoa kaikille”. Havaittiin, että Bluetoothin omaksumiseen vaikuttavat eniten seuraavat tekijät: teknologian sosiaalinen hyväksyntä, toimialan halukkuus teknologian edistämiseen sekä Bluetoothin ja sen kilpailijoiden kehittyminen jatkossa.

Supplier's position in project marketing networks

The present study explores relationships between project marketers and their customers in project marketing context. The purpose of the study is to increase the understanding on supplier’s position in project marketing networks. Project marketing is representing a high volume in the international business, and the industrial network approach and the project marketing research cannot fully explain a supplier’s position in project marketing networks. Increased knowledge on project networks can also contribute to industrial marketing research more generally. Data for the present study was collected firstly during the pilot case study from project buyers in the paper and the steel industry in interviews. Secondly an entire project marketing case concerning a steel industry case was used as a data source. The data included interviews, correspondence between the supplier and the buyer, and project documents. The data of the pilot case was analysed with contents analysis, and in the case a deeper analysis based on the developed Stage Dimension framework was used. Supplier’s position in project marketing networks is a hierarchical and dynamic concept including a supplier’s position on the highest level. The dimensions of the position concept are the intermediate level, and the dimensions are based on the underlying components. Supplier’s position is composed from four organization related dimensions, and two individual actor related dimensions. The composition of the supplier’s position varies during the project marketing process, and consequently the relative importance of the dimensions is changing over the process. Supplier’s position in project marketing networks is shaped by incremental and radical changes. Radical changes are initiated by critical events. The study contributes to the research of industrial networks and project marketing. The theoretical contribution of the study is threefold: firstly it proposes a structure of the position concept in project marketing networks, secondly it proposes the Position Stage Dimension Component (PSDC) model for the development of supplier’s position during the project marketing process, and thirdly the study widens the critical event concept to cover the project marketing process both on the organizational and individual level. In addition to the theoretical contributions there are several managerial implications for planning and implementing marketing strategies in the project context.

Outsourcing Challenges in Russia

The study focuses on the key factors in outsourcing from the viewpoint of manufacturing companies operating in Russia. The goal has been to give an overview of the different kinds of challenges companies might face in the case of outsourcing. Of particular interest are the possible risks which might originate from the subcontract relationship, as well as managing these risks. The empirical material for this qualitative interview study was collected from three large-scale manufacturing companies operating in food industry in Russia. Two of the interviewed companies were local Russian actors, and one was an international firm. According to the respondents, a big challenge is to find a suitable supplier in the Russian markets. If there are suppliers available, they may often not be capable of operating as outsourcing partners. The most common problems faced with suppliers are unstable quality and arbitrary pricing. Whether the suppliers are capable to offer activities which satisfy the company’s own and the end customers’ requirements, seems to be the biggest concern in the interviewed companies. This quality risk is managed by the strategy of multiple sourcing. Single sourcing is seen as an impossible option. The interviewed companies have no organised risk management with their external suppliers.

Transforming Maritime Safety Culture. Evaluation of the impacts of the ISM Code on maritime safety culture in Finland

The purpose of the METKU Project (Development of Maritime Safety Culture) is to study how the ISM Code has influenced the safety culture in the maritime industry. This literature review is written as a part of the Work Package 2 which is conducted by the University of Turku, Centre for Maritime Studies. The maritime traffic is rapidly growing in the Baltic Sea which leads to a growing risk of maritime accidents. Particularly in the Gulf of Finland, the high volume of traffic causes a high risk of maritime accidents. The growing risks give us good reasons for implementing the research project concerning maritime safety and the effectiveness of the safety measures, such as the safety management systems. In order to reduce maritime safety risks, the safety management systems should be further developed. The METKU Project has been launched to examine the improvements which can be done to the safety management systems. Human errors are considered as the most important reason for maritime accidents. The international safety management code (the ISM Code) has been established to cut down the occurrence of human errors by creating a safety-oriented organizational culture for the maritime industry. The ISM Code requires that a company should provide safe practices in ship operation and a safe working environment and establish safeguards against all identified risk. The fundamental idea of the ISM Code is that companies should continuously improve safety. The commitment of the top management is essential for implementing a safety-oriented culture in a company. The ISM Code has brought a significant contribution to the progress of maritime safety in recent years. Shipping companies and ships’ crews are more environmentally friendly and more safety-oriented than 12 years ago. This has been showed by several studies which have been analysed for this literature research. Nevertheless, the direct effect and influence of the ISM Code on maritime safety could not be isolated very well. No quantitative measurement (statistics/hard data) could be found in order to present the impacts of the ISM Code on maritime safety. In this study it has been discovered that safety culture has emerged and it is developing in the maritime industry. Even though the roots of the safety culture have been established there are still serious barriers to the breakthrough of the safety management. These barriers could be envisaged as cultural factors preventing the safety process. Even though the ISM Code has been effective over a decade, the old-established behaviour which is based on the old day’s maritime culture still occurs. In the next phase of this research project, these cultural factors shall be analysed in regard to the present safety culture of the maritime industry in Finland.

Reaction Kinetics and Viscosity Modelling in the Fusion Syntheses of Ca- and Ca/Mg-resinates

Rosin is a natural product from pine forests and it is used as a raw material in resinate syntheses. Resinates are polyvalent metal salts of rosin acids and especially Ca- and Ca/Mg- resinates find wide application in the printing ink industry. In this thesis, analytical methods were applied to increase general knowledge of resinate chemistry and the reaction kinetics was studied in order to model the non linear solution viscosity increase during resinate syntheses by the fusion method. Solution viscosity in toluene is an important quality factor for resinates to be used in printing inks. The concept of critical resinate concentration, c crit, was introduced to define an abrupt change in viscosity dependence on resinate concentration in the solution. The concept was then used to explain the non-inear solution viscosity increase during resinate syntheses. A semi empirical model with two estimated parameters was derived for the viscosity increase on the basis of apparent reaction kinetics. The model was used to control the viscosity and to predict the total reaction time of the resinate process. The kinetic data from the complex reaction media was obtained by acid value titration and by FTIR spectroscopic analyses using a conventional calibration method to measure the resinate concentration and the concentration of free rosin acids. A multivariate calibration method was successfully applied to make partial least square (PLS) models for monitoring acid value and solution viscosity in both mid-infrared (MIR) and near infrared (NIR) regions during the syntheses. The calibration models can be used for on line resinate process monitoring. In kinetic studies, two main reaction steps were observed during the syntheses. First a fast irreversible resination reaction occurs at 235 °C and then a slow thermal decarboxylation of rosin acids starts to take place at 265 °C. Rosin oil is formed during the decarboxylation reaction step causing significant mass loss as the rosin oil evaporates from the system while the viscosity increases to the target level. The mass balance of the syntheses was determined based on the resinate concentration increase during the decarboxylation reaction step. A mechanistic study of the decarboxylation reaction was based on the observation that resinate molecules are partly solvated by rosin acids during the syntheses. Different decarboxylation mechanisms were proposed for the free and solvating rosin acids. The deduced kinetic model supported the analytical data of the syntheses in a wide resinate concentration region, over a wide range of viscosity values and at different reaction temperatures. In addition, the application of the kinetic model to the modified resinate syntheses gave a good fit. A novel synthesis method with the addition of decarboxylated rosin (i.e. rosin oil) to the reaction mixture was introduced. The conversion of rosin acid to resinate was increased to the level necessary to obtain the target viscosity for the product at 235 °C. Due to a lower reaction temperature than in traditional fusion synthesis at 265 °C, thermal decarboxylation is avoided. As a consequence, the mass yield of the resinate syntheses can be increased from ca. 70% to almost 100% by recycling the added rosin oil.

Wood pellet markets in Russia

Bioenergy came to Russia through wood pellets. On account of prevalence of oil and gas in the Russian economy «bioenergy» has come with a great delay. Certainly, there were many woodworking enterprises and even municipal boiler-houses using wood waste and fire wood for energy reception, but this activity was not purposeful. More likely it was connected with necessity of waste recycling and with the organization of heat supply in the remote areas of the country. However, in 2001 was founded the first pellet plant in Russia. The purpose of this work was to analyze wood pellets market in Russia, investigate current situation on the home and export market, evaluates supply and demand development, opportunities for wood pellets manufactures in Russia, the main manufactures in Russian market; cost and prices for wood pellets in Russia. Also the work was intended to give better understanding of the main problems of wood pellets industry in Russia. Besides, this work had updated information about Russian customs and logistic systems.

An Overview Of British Automotive Industry: Implications From History and Recommendations for Future

This thesis is a literary research, which aims to uncover reasons for the downfall of automotive industry in the United Kingdom in the late 20th century. First, there is a short review on the history of the industry in the UK and then there are more present cases presented in the form of BMW-Rover and Tata-Jaguar Land Rover. Finally, the thesis suggests some ideas to which the UK should work towards in order to ensure future competitiveness. The automotive industry in the United Kingdom is one of the oldest in the world, but as the end of last millennium was approaching it was not doing too well. Industry that was still flourishing in the mid-century was soon heading down river and by the end of the century all large English car manufacturers had either closed down or were forced under foreign ownership. The thesis suggests possible targets for future prospects from the literary review and from the conclusions made. These are to ensure the continuity of the industry and the competitiveness on an international level. The suggestions are for long term and are mainly focused around research and development of renewable energy forms.

Simulating Fluid Flow in a Compressed Valve

The objective of the work is to study fluid flow behavior through a pinch valve and to estimate the flow coefficient (KV ) at different opening positions of the valve. The flow inside a compressed valve is more complex than in a straight pipe, and it is one of main topics of interest for engineers in process industry. In the present work, we have numerically simulated compressed valve flow at different opening positions. In order to simulate the flow through pinch valve, several models of the elastomeric valve tube (pinch valve tube) at different opening positions were constructed in 2D-axisymmetric and 3D geometries. The numerical simulations were performed with the CFD packages; ANSYS FLUENT and ANSYS CFX by using parallel computing. The distributions of static pressure, velocity and turbulent kinetic energy have been studied at different opening positions of the valve in both 2D-axisymmetric and 3D experiments. The flow coefficient (KV ) values have been measured at different valve openings and are compared between 2D-axisymmetric and 3D simulation results.

Efficiency of the ISM Code in Finnish Shipping Companies

Due to increasing waterborne transportation in the Gulf of Finland, the risk of a hazardous accident increases and therefore manifold preventive actions are needed. As a main legislative authority in the maritime community, The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set down plenary laws and recommendations which are e.g., utilised in the safe operations in ships and pollution prevention. One of these compulsory requirements, the ISM Code, requires proactive attitude both from the top management and operational workers in the shipping companies. In this study, a crosssectional approach was taken to analyse whether the ISM Code has actively enhanced maritime safety in the Gulf of Finland. The analysis included; 1) performance of the ISM Code in Finnish shipping companies, 2) statistical measurements of maritime safety, 3) influence of corporate top management to the safety culture and 4) comparing safety management practices in shipping companies and port operations of Finnish maritime and port authorities. The main results found were that maritime safety culture has developed in the right direction after the launch of the ISM Code in the 1990´s. However, this study does not exclusively prove that the improvements are the consequence of the ISM Code. Accident prone ships can be recognized due to their behaviour and there is a lesson to learn from the safety culture of some high standard safety disciplines such as, air traffic. In addition, the reporting of accidents and nearmisses should be more widely used in shipping industry. In conclusion, there is still much to be improved in the maritime safety culture of the Finnish Shipping industry, e.g., a “no blame culture” needs to be adopted.

The Finnish Paper Workers' Union at a crossroads: Labor union representativeness in a changing environment, 1980-2008

This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles refer to the changes in the representativeness of the Finnish Paper Workers' Union. Representativeness stands for the entire entity of external, internal, legal and reputational factors that enable the labor union to represent its members and achieve its goals. This concept is based on an extensive reading of quantitative and qualitative industrial relations literature, which includes works based on Marxist labor-capital relations (such as Hyman's industrial relations studies), and more recent union density studies as well as gender- and ethnic diversity-based 'union revitalization' studies. Müller-Jentsch's German studies of industrial relations have been of particular importance as well as Streeck's industrial unionism and technology studies. The concept of representativeness is an attempt to combine the insights of these diverse strands of literature and bring the scientific discussion of labor unions back to the core of a union's function: representing its members. As such, it can be seen as a theoretical innovation. The concept helps to acknowledge both the heterogeneity of the membership and the totality of a labor union organization. The concept of representativeness aims to move beyond notions of 'power'. External representativeness can be expressed through the position of the labor union in the industrial relations system and the economy. Internal representativeness focuses on the aspects of labor unions that relate to the function of the union as an association with members, such as internal democracy. Legal representativeness lies in the formal legal position of the union – its rights and instruments. This includes collective bargaining legislation, co-decision rules and industrial conflict legislation. Reputational representativeness is related to how the union is seen by other actors and the general public, and can be approximated using data on strike activity. All these aspects of representativeness are path-dependent, and show the results of previous struggles over issues. The concept of representativeness goes beyond notions of labor union power and symbolizes an attempt to bring back the focus of industrial relations studies to the union's basic function of representing its members. The first article shows in detail the industrial conflict of the Finnish paper industry in 2005. The intended focus was the issue of gender in the negotiations over a new collective agreement, but the focal point of the industrial conflict was the issue of outsourcing and how this should be organized. Also, the issue of continuous shifts as an issue of working time was very important. The drawn-out conflict can be seen as a struggle over principles, and under pressure the labor union had to concede ground on the aforementioned issues. The article concludes that in this specific conflict, the union represented its' female members to a lesser extent, because the other issues took such priority. Furthermore, because of the substantive concessions. the union lost some of its internal representativeness, and the stubbornness of the union may have even harmed the reputation of the union. This article also includes an early version of the representativeness framework, through which this conflict is analyzed. The second article discusses wage developments, union density and collective bargaining within the context of representativeness. It is shown that the union has been able to secure substantial benefits for its members, regardless of declining employment. Collective agreements have often been based on centralized incomes policies, but the paper sector has not always joined these. Attention is furthermore paid to the changing competition of the General Assembly, with a surprisingly strong position of the Left Alliance still. In an attempt to replicate analysis of union density measures, an analysis of sectoral union density shows that similar factors as in aggregate data influence this measure, though – due to methodological issues – the results may not be robust. On this issue, it can be said that the method of analysis for aggregate union density is not suitable for sectoral union density analysis. The increasingly conflict-ridden industrial relations predicted have not actually materialized. The article concludes by asking whether the aim of ever-increasing wages is a sustainable one in the light of the pressures of globalization, though wage costs are a relatively small part of total costs. The third article discusses the history and use of outsourcing in the Finnish paper industry. It is shown using Hyman's framework of constituencies that over time, the perspective of the union changed from 'members of the Paper Workers' Union' to a more specific view of who is a core member of the union. Within the context of the industrial unionism that the union claims to practice, this is an important change. The article shows that the union more and more caters for a core group, while auxiliary personnel is less important to the union's identity and constituencies, which means that the union's internal representativeness has decreased. Maintenance workers are an exception; the union and employers have developed a rotating system that increases the efficient allocation of these employees. The core reason of the exceptional status of maintenance personnel is their high level of non-transferable skills. In the end it is debatable whether the compromise on outsourcing solves the challenges facing the industry. The fourth article shows diverging discourses within the union with regard to union-employer partnership for competitiveness improvements and instruments of local union representatives. In the collective agreement of 2008, the provision regulating wage effects of significant changes in the organization or content of work was thoroughly changed, though this mainly reflected decisions by the Labor Court on the pre-2008 version of the provision. This change laid bare the deep rift between the Social Democratic and Left Alliance (ex-Communist) factions of the union. The article argues that through the changed legal meaning of the provision, the union was able to transform concession bargaining into a basis for partnership. The internal discontent about this issue is nonetheless substantial and a threat to the unity of the union, both locally and at the union level. On the basis of the results of the articles, other factors influencing representativeness, such as technology and EU law and an overview of the main changes in the Finnish paper industry, it is concluded that, especially in recent years, the Finnish Paper Workers' Union has lost some of its representativeness. In particular, the loss of the efficiency of strikes is noted, the compromise on outsourcing which may have alienated a substantial part of the union's membership, and the change in the collective agreement of 2008 have caused this decline. In the latter case, the internal disunion on that issue shows the constraints of the union's internal democracy. Furthermore, the failure of the union to join the TEAM industrial union (by democratic means), the internal conflicts and a narrow focus on its own sector may also hurt the union in the future, as the paper industry in Finland is going through a structural change. None of these changes in representativeness would have been so drastic without the considerable pressure of globalization - in particular changing markets, changing technology and a loss of domestic investments to foreign investments, which in the end have benefited the corporations more than the Finnish employees of these corporations. Taken together, the union risks becoming socially irrelevant in time, though it will remain formally very strong on the basis of its institutional setting and financial situation.

Indicent reporting in shipping. Experiences and best practices for the Baltic Sea

Incident and near miss reporting is one of the proactive tools of safety management. By analyzing incidents and near misses and by corrective actions, severe accidents can potentially be avoided. Near miss and incident reporting is widely used in many riskprone industries such as aviation or chemical industry. In shipping incident and near miss reporting is required by the mandatory safety management system International Safety Management Code (ISM Code). However, in several studies the conclusion has been that incidents are reported poorly in the shipping industry. The aim of this report is to highlight the best practices for incident reporting in shipping and to support the shipping industry in the better utilization of incident reporting information. The study consists of three parts: 1) voluntary, shared reporting systems in shipping (international experiences), 2) interview study at four shipping companies in Sweden and in Finland (best practices), 3) expert workshop on incident reporting (problems and solutions). Preconditions for a functional reporting system are an existing no blame culture, commitment of the top management, feedback, good communication, training and an easy-to-use system. Although preconditions are met, problems can still appear, for example due to psychological, interpersonal or nationality-related reasons. In order to keep the reporting system functioning, the shipping company must be committed to maintain and develop the system and to tackle the problems. The whole reporting process from compiling, handling and analyzing a report, creating corrective actions and implementing them has to be handled properly in order to gain benefits from the reporting system. In addition to avoiding accidents, the functional reporting system can also offer other benefits by increasing safety awareness, by improving the overall safety and working conditions onboard, by enhancing team work and communication onboard and between ships and the land-based organization of shipping companies. Voluntary shared reporting systems are supported in the shipping industry in principle, but their development in the Baltic Sea is still in its infancy and the potential benefits of sharing the reports have not been realized. On the basis of this study we recommend that a common reporting system be developed for the Baltic Sea area which all the ships operating in the area could use regardless of their flag. Such a wider system could prevent some of the problems related to the current national systems. There would be more incident cases available in the database and this would support anonymity and thus encourage shipping companies to report to a shared database more frequently. A shared reporting system would contribute to the sharing of experiences and to the wider use of incident information in the shipping industry.

Oil Transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2020 and 2030

This study is part of the Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies (MIMIC) project. The purpose of this study is to provide a current state analysis of oil transportation volumes in the Baltic Sea and to create scenarios for oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland for the years 2020 and 2030. Future scenarios and information about oil transportation will be utilized in the modelling of oil transportation risks, which will be carried out as part of the MIMIC project. Approximately 290 million tons of oil and oil products were transported in the Baltic Sea in 2009, of which 55% (160 million tons) via the Gulf of Finland. Oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland have increased from 40 million to almost 160 million tonnes over the last ten years. In Russia and Estonia, oil transportation mainly consists of export transports of the Russian oil industry. In Finnish ports in the Gulf of Finland, the majority of oil traffic is concentrated to the port of Sköldvik, while the remainder mainly consists of different oil products for domestic use. Transit transports to/from Russia make up small volumes of oil transportation. The largest oil ports in the Gulf of Finland are Primorsk, Tallinn, St. Petersburg and Sköldvik. The basis for the scenarios for the years 2020 and 2030 is formed by national energy strategies, the EU`s climate and energy strategies as well other energy and transportation forecasts for the years 2020 and 2030. Three alternative scenarios were produced for both 2020 and 2030. The oil volumes are based on the expert estimates of nine specialists. The specialists gave three volumes for each scenario: the expected oil transport volumes, and the minimum and maximum volumes. Variations in the volumes between the scenarios are not large, but each scenario tends to have rather a large difference between the figures for minimum and maximum volumes. This variation between the minimum and maximum volumes ranges around 30 to 40 million tonnes depending on the scenario. On the basis of this study, no a dramatic increase in oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland is to be expected. Most of the scenarios only forecasted a moderate growth in maritime oil transportation compared to the current levels. The effects of the European energy policy favouring renewable energy sources can be seen in the 2030 scenarios, in which the transported oil volumes are smaller than in the 2020 scenarios. In the Slow development 2020 scenario, oil transport volumes for 2020 are expected to be 170.6 Mt (million tonnes), in the Average development 2020 187.1 Mt and in the Strong development 2020 201.5 Mt. The corresponding oil volumes for the 2030 scenarios were 165 Mt for the Stagnating development 2030 scenario, 177.5 Mt for the Towards a greener society 2030 scenario and 169.5 Mt in the Decarbonising society 2030 scenario.

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN CREATING SUSTAINABILITY VALUE FOR FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS IN 2020 : a scenario planning approach

The growing importance of global sustainability issues has been causing many changes to the financial services industry. Facts such as climate change, social development and the financial crisis in 2008 have been making banks reconsider the manner that they consider environmental, social and economic factors in their decision-making process. At the same time, information technology (IT) has been transforming the financial service industry and its fast development has casted doubts on the way it should be managed within an organization. This current changing environment brings a number of uncertainties to the future that cannot be addressed using traditional forecasting techniques. This research investigates how IT can bring value to sustainability in the financial service industry in 2020. Through the use of a scenario planning technique, we analyzed how trends in the current environment (considering the relation between sustainability, financial institutions an IT) can lead to four different future scenarios. Then, we discussed how IT can improve a bank’s sustainability performance, considering the limitations of each scenario.