Winner-Loser Performance and Macroeconomic Effects during three last Economic Crises in Finnish Stock Market

The main purpose of this thesis is to investigate winner-loser performance when financial markets are facing crisis. This is examined through the idea that does the prior loser portfolios outperform the prior winner portfolios during the three major crises: The depression of the 1990s, the IT-Bubble and the Subprime -crisis. Firstly, the winner and loser portfolios superiority is counted by using the cumulative excess returns from the examination period. The portfolios were formed by counting the excess returns and locating them in to the order of superiority. The excess returns are counted by using one year pre-data before the actual examination period. The results of this part did not support the results of De Bondt & Thaler’s (1985) paper. Secondly, it is investigated how the Finnish and the US macroeconomic factors are seen to be affecting the stock market valuation in Finnish Stock Markets during economic crises. This is done to explain better the changes in the successes of the winner-loser performance. The crises included different amount of selected macro factors. Two latest crises involved as well few selected US macro factors. Exclusively the IT-Bubble -crisis had the most statistically significant results with the US factors. Two other crises did not receive statistically significant results. An extra research was produced to study do the US macro factors impact more significantly on Finnish stock exchange after lags. The selected lags were three, six, nine and twelve months. Three and six month lagged US macro factors during the IT-Bubble -crisis improved the results. The extra research did not improve the results of the Subprime -crisis.

Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Patenttien vaikutus suomalaisten pörssiyritysten markkina-arvoon - reaalioptiosovellutus

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tutkia onko patenteilla positiivinen vaikutus yrityksen markkina-arvoon. Aihetta tutkittiin reaalioptionäkökulmasta: miten patentit voidaan nähdä reaalioptioiden ilmentymänä ja millainen vaikutus niillä on yrityksen suoriutumiseen. Lisäksi tutkittiin onko patenttien vaikutuksessa toimialakohtaisia eroja. Tavoitteena oli myös selvittää onko patenttien vaikutus erilainen talouden eri suhdanteissa. Empiriana tutkimuksessa olivat suomalaiset pörssiyritykset ja niiden Suomeen myönnetyt patentit. Tutkittavana ajanjaksona oli 2001–2010. Tutkimusongelmista johdettuja hypoteeseja testattiin regressioanalyysien avulla. Selitettävänä muuttujana oli yrityksen Tobin’s q ja selittävänä muuttujana yrityksen voimassa olleiden patenttien ja tasearvon suhdeluku. Kontrollimuuttujina käytettiin vuotta ja toimialaa. Tulokseksi saatiin, että patenteilla on ollut positiivinen vaikutus suomalaisten pörssiyritysten markkina-arvoon 2000-luvulla. Varsinkin teknologian ja perusmateriaalien toimialoilla yhteys oli vahvempi kuin muilla toimialoilla. Saadut tulokset ovat yhdenmukaisia aiempien tutkimusten kanssa. Aineiston erityispiirteet toivat tutkimukseen omat haasteensa, jotka vaikuttivat muun muassa toimialaryhmien muodostamiseen sekä makroekonomisen ympäristön merkityksen tutkimiseen.

The Impact of European Macroeconomic News Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets

The purpose of this research is to investigate how CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa) stock markets are integrated with Europe as measured by the impact of euro area (EA) scheduled macroeconomic news announcements, which are related to macroeconomic indicators that are commonly used to indicate the direction of the economy. Macroeconomic announcements used in this study can be divided into four categories; (1) prices, (2) real economy, (3) money supply and (4) business climate and consumer confidence. The data set consists of daily market data from CIVETS and scheduled macroeconomic announcements from the EA for the years 2007-2012. The econometric model used in this research is Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (EGARCH). Empirical results show diverse impacts of macroeconomic news releases and surprises for different categories of news supporting the perception of heterogeneity among CIVETS. The analyses revealed that in general EA macroeconomic news releases and surprises affect stock market volatility in CIVETS and only in some cases asset pricing. In conclusion, all CIVETS stock markets reacted to the incoming EA macroeconomic news suggesting market integration to some extent. Thus, EA should be considered as a possible risk factor when investing in CIVETS.