Review of investment strategy, portfolio management, and scorecard based portfolio selection tool for direct property investments in Finland

The lack of research of private real estate is a well-known problem. Earlier studies have mostly concentrated on the USA or the UK. Therefore, this master thesis offers more information about the performance and risk associated with private real estate investments in Nordic countries, but especially in Finland. The structure of this master thesis is divided into two independent sections based on the research questions. In first section, database analysis is performed to assess risk-return ratio of direct real estate investment for Nordic countries. Risk-return ratios are also assessed for different property sectors and economic regions. Finally, review of diversification strategies based on property sectors and economic regions is performed. However, standard deviation itself is not usually sufficient method to evaluate riskiness of private real estate. There is demand for more explicit assessment of property risk. One solution is property risk scoring. In second section risk scorecard based tool is built to make different real estate comparable in terms of risk. In order to do this, nine real estate professionals were interviewed to enhance the structure of theory-based risk scorecard and to assess weights for different risk factors.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Timing of Capacity Change: Models for Capital Intensive Industry

The suitable timing of capacity investments is a remarkable issue especially in capital intensive industries. Despite its importance, fairly few studies have been published on the topic. In the present study models for the timing of capacity change in capital intensive industry are developed. The study considers mainly the optimal timing of single capacity changes. The review of earlier research describes connections between cost, capacity and timing literature, and empirical examples are used to describe the starting point of the study and to test the developed models. The study includes four models, which describe the timing question from different perspectives. The first model, which minimizes unit costs, has been built for capacity expansion and replacement situations. It is shown that the optimal timing of an investment can be presented with the capacity and cost advantage ratios. After the unit cost minimization model the view is extended to the direction of profit maximization. The second model states that early investments are preferable if the change of fixed costs is small compared to the change of the contribution margin. The third model is a numerical discounted cash flow model, which emphasizes the roles of start-up time, capacity utilization rate and value of waiting as drivers of the profitable timing of a project. The last model expands the view from project level to company level and connects the flexibility of assets and cost structures to the timing problem. The main results of the research are the solutions of the models and analysis or simulations done with the models. The relevance and applicability of the results are verified by evaluating the logic of the models and by numerical cases.

Market entry order and competitive advantage of the firm

A firm that wishes to launch a new product to the market is faced with a difficult task of deciding what the best moment for the launch is. Timing may also be critical when a firm plans to adopt new processes or intends to head for new markets. The critical question the firm needs to tackle is whether it will try to reach the so-called first-mover advantage by acting earlier than its rivals. The first-mover position may reward the entrant with various opportunities to gain competitive advantage over later movers. However, there are also great risks involved in the early market entry, and sometimes the very first entrant fails even before the followers enter the market. The follower, on the other hand, may be able to free-ride on the earlier entrants' investments and gain from the languished uncertainties that characterize the new markets. According to the current understanding the occurrence of entry order advantages depends not only on the mechanism and attributes in the firm's environment that provide the initial opportunities but also on the firm's ability to capitalize on these advantage opportunities. This study contributes to this discussion by analyzing the linkages between the asset base of the firm, characteristics of the operating environment and the firm's entry timing orientation. To shed light on the relationship between the entry timing strategy and competitive advantage, this study utilizes the concept of entry timing orientation. The rationale for choosing this type of approach arises from the inability of previously employed research tools to reach the underlying factors that result in entry timing advantage. The work consists of an introductory theoretical discussion on entry timing advantages and of four research publication. The empirical findings support the understanding that entry timing advantage is related to the characteristics of the firm's operating environment but may also be related to firm-specific factors. This in turn suggests that some of the traditional ways of detecting and measuring first-mover advantage - which to some extent ignore these dimensions - may be outdated.

Konenäköinvestoinnin soveltuvuus- ja esikannattavuustukimus sahalaitoksessa

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli selvittää sahalaitokselle mahdollisen konenäköinvestoinninsoveltuvuus ja kannattavuus. Tutkimus rajattiin vaihtoehtojen tunnistamisen ja investoinnin kannattavuuden alustavaan analyysiin. Tutkimuksessa arvioitiin konenäkötekniikan mahdollisuuksia sahateollisuusprosessissa yleisesti sekä erityisesti sahatavaran pitkittäis- ja poikittaissuuntaisissa sahatavaran pinnantarkastuksissa. Konenäköjärjestelmien toimittajia ja heidän referenssejään haastattelemalla saatiin selvitettyä tarjottujen järjestelmien tekninen soveltuvuus. Tutkimus liitettiin työn toimeksiantajan toimintastrategiaan, jotta voitiin arvioida mahdollisimman kattavasti kaikki investoinnilla saavutettavat hyödyt. Kannattavuuslaskentaa varten arvioitiin investoinnilla saavutettavat nettotuotot suunnitellulle pitoajalle. Laskennassa käytettiin perinteisiä investointilaskentamenetelmiä kuten nykyarvomenetelmää, takaisinmaksuaikaa ja sisäistä korkokantaa. Poikittaissuuntainen sahatavaran pinnantarkastus tuoreen ja kuivan tavaran tasaamolla todettiin teknisesti toteuttamiskelpoiseksi vaihtoehdoksi. Kyseisessä vaihtoehdossa liitännäisinvestointien määrän arvioidaan jäävän melko vähäisiksi. Konenäköinvestoinnin voidaan arvioida kannattavan, muttakannattavuuden edellytyksenä on vahva johdon ja muun henkilöstön sitoutuminen uuteen haasteeseen.

Tietojärjestelmäinvestoinnin jälkitarkkailumalli

Tämän työn ensisijaisena tavoitteena oli kehittää tietojärjestelmähankkeiden investointiprosessia luomalla kohdeyritykseen yhtenäinen toimintatapa hankkeiden jälkitarkkailuun. Tavoiteltu muutos koskee järjestelmäinvestointien arviointiperusteita sekä niiden käyttöönoton jälkeistä seurantaa. Jälkitarkkailumalli on rakennettu tasapainotettujen mittaristojen viitekehyksestä mittaamalla onnistumista johdon, loppukäyttäjän sekä projektin näkökulmasta. Työn tuloksena on Excel -sovellus sekä toimintatapa sovelluksen käytölle. Esimerkki-investoinnista kerätyn kokemuksen perusteella malli tukee investointiin liittyvien sidosryhmien sitoutumista yhteisiin tavoitteisiin sekä selkeyttää roolijakoa IT - vetoisen projektiryhmän ja yrityksen liiketoiminnallisen johdon välillä. Lisäksi mallin koettiin tukevan käyttöönotetun järjestelmän tavoitelähtöistä johtamista. Käytön laajentuessa mallilla uskotaan olevan yksittäistenhankkeiden lisäksi positiivinen vaikutus myös yrityksen tietojärjestelmähankkeiden investointiprosessiin.

Convergence withEU environmental legislation in Russia and Kyoto Protocol effects on certain power plants in Russia

Venäjällä uudistetaan sähkömarkkinoita. Uudistamisella pyritään vapauttamaan sähkömarkkinat ja lisäämään kilpailua energiasektorilla. Sähkömarkkinoiden vapauttamisen tarkoitus on energiasektorin hyötysuhteen nostaminen ja investointien houkutteleminen sektorille. Venäjä on ratifioinut Kioton protokollan, mikä energiasektorin kannalta on tärkeää, koska protokollan yhteistoteutusmekanismin kautta saadaan houkuteltua investointeja sektorille. Venäjän sähkömarkkinoiden vapauttamisen pitkäaikainen tähtäin on Venäjän ja Euroopan sähkömarkkinoiden integroituminen, joka tarkoittaa myös ympäristölainsäädännönyhtenäistämistä. Tämä tutkimus on osa Fortum Oyj:n tarjoamaa teknistä katselmusta Venäjällä toimivalle sähköyhtiölle, TGC-9:lle. Tässä työssä keskitytään TGC-9:n omistamien energiatuotantolaitoksien happamoitumista aiheuttaviin ilmapäästöihin ja pölypäästöihin. Tutkimuksessa pyritään myös löytämään Kioton protokollan yhteistoteutusmekanismi hyödyntämiskohteita. NOx -päästöt tulevat olemaan suurin haaste TGC-9:lle, jos ympäristöstandardit yhdenmukaistetaan. Yhteistoteutusmekanismin hyödyntämiskohteita löydettiin neljä: koksaamokaasun hyödyntäminen, maakaasun korvaaminen kuoren poltolla ja kaksi tapausta liittyen laitoksien hyötysuhteen nostamiseen.

Balanced Scorecardin implementointi digimediahankkeessa

Tutkimuksessa perehdytään mediaosakeyhtiö Frantic Median hankkeisiin sekä niiden kannattavuuteen asiakkaalle. Tarkoituksena on luoda lähtökohdat, joiden perusteella asiakas lähtee sivustohankkeeseen ja osoittaa tälle hankkeen kannattavuus, sekä välillisesti että välittömästi. Hankkeen tuottavuutta tutkittiin Frantic Median asiakkaan A-lehtien avulla kautta. Tutkimuksessa kartoitettiin sivustohankkeen tuottoa sekä mallinnettiin tuottavuuden kasvua heidän tapauksessaan. Mallintamismenetelmänä ja työkaluna tutkimuksessa käytettiin Balanced Scorecard -mittaristoa. Mittariston avulla saatiin otettua mukaan taloudellisen näkökulman lisäksi myös yrityksen kolme muuta tärkeää näkökulmaa. Työssä rakennettiin BSC:n pohjalta kullekin osa-alueelle strategiakartat, jotka näin osaltaan osoittivat sijoitetun pääoman tuoton kasvun hankkeen eri osa-alueissa.

Kasvihuonekaasupäästölaskenta kunnassa

Kiihtyvän kasvihuoneilmiön aiheuttama ilmaston lämpeneminen on modernin yhteiskunnan suurimpia haasteita. Ympäristöteknologian tavoitteena on hidastaa tämän ilmiön haitallisia vaikutuksia maailmanlaajuisesti, kansallisesti sekäkunnallisella tasolla. Tässä työssä on selvitetty, kuinka kunnallinen kasvihuonekaasupäästölaskenta toteutetaan ja voidaanko siitä saada luotettavia tuloksia. Lisäksi tulosten pohjalta on laadittu kunnallinen kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen kehitysennuste sekä toimenpide-ehdotus päästöjen leikkaamiseksi. Esimerkkikuntana on Lappeenrannan kaupunki ja päästölaskenta on kohdistettu vuoteen 2004. Lappeenrannan kaupungin alueen kasvihuonekaasupäästöt vuonna 2004 olivat 1 156 500 tonnia hiilidioksidiekvivalenttia. Alueen luonnon nieluvaikutus oli 23 500 tonnia hiilidioksidiekvivalenttia. Laskennassa käytetty aineisto, eli yritysten ja kunnallisten toimintojen päästö- ja polttoainetiedot, saatiin kirjallisuudesta, virallislähteistä sekä henkilökohtaisina tiedonantoina. Laskentaohjelmistona käytettiin Suomen Kuntaliiton kehittämää Excel-pohjaista kasvihuonekaasu-ja energiataseohjelmisto KASVENER:ia. Työssä on osoitettu, että kasvihuonekaasupäästölaskennan tarkkuus ja onnistuminen ovat riippuvaisia käytettävissä olevista resursseista, ennen kaikkea laskennan lähtötietojen laajuudesta ja tarkkuudesta. Laskentatuloksista selviää, että esimerkkikunnan kasvihuonekaasupäästöt ovat kasvaneet Suomen keskiarvoa vastaavalla tavalla. Toimenpide-ehdotuksia listatessa kävi lisäksi ilmi, että kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen leikkaaminen on melko helppoa olemassa olevalla teknologialla tiettyyn pisteeseen asti. Isompien tavoitteiden saavuttaminen edellyttää laajamittaisia investointeja ja kunnan infrastruktuurin muuttamista.