Use of Statistical Methods in Demand Planning

In a very volatile industry of high technology it is of utmost importance to accurately forecast customers’ demand. However, statistical forecasting of sales, especially in heavily competitive electronics product business, has always been a challenging task due to very high variation in demand and very short product life cycles of products. The purpose of this thesis is to validate if statistical methods can be applied to forecasting sales of short life cycle electronics products and provide a feasible framework for implementing statistical forecasting in the environment of the case company. Two different approaches have been developed for forecasting on short and medium term and long term horizons. Both models are based on decomposition models, but differ in interpretation of the model residuals. For long term horizons residuals are assumed to represent white noise, whereas for short and medium term forecasting horizon residuals are modeled using statistical forecasting methods. Implementation of both approaches is performed in Matlab. Modeling results have shown that different markets exhibit different demand patterns and therefore different analytical approaches are appropriate for modeling demand in these markets. Moreover, the outcomes of modeling imply that statistical forecasting can not be handled separately from judgmental forecasting, but should be perceived only as a basis for judgmental forecasting activities. Based on modeling results recommendations for further deployment of statistical methods in sales forecasting of the case company are developed.

Cost estimation framework for modular product

Cost estimation is an important, but challenging process when designing a new product or a feature of it, verifying the product prices given by suppliers or planning a cost saving actions of existing products. It is even more challenging when the product is highly modular, not a bulk product. In general, cost estimation techniques can be divided into two main groups - qualitative and quantitative techniques - which can further be classified into more detailed methods. Generally, qualitative techniques are preferable when comparing alternatives and quantitative techniques when cost relationships can be found. The main objective of this thesis was to develop a method on how to estimate costs of internally manufactured and commercial elevator landing doors. Because of the challenging product structure, the proposed cost estimation framework is developed under three different levels based on past cost information available. The framework consists of features from both qualitative and quantitative cost estimation techniques. The starting point for the whole cost estimation process is an unambiguous, hierarchical product structure so that the product can be classified into controllable parts and is then easier to handle. Those controllable parts can then be compared to existing past cost knowledge of similar parts and create as accurate cost estimates as possible by that way.

Sales and Operations Planning Implementation

The master’s thesis focused on implementing a sales and operations planning process. The main objectives were to create planning methods and tools for the implementation. The ultimate goal of the process, beyond this master’s thesis, is to balance the supply of products with customer demand, with optimized profitability. The theoretical part focused on giving a thorough view on the sales and operations planning process. The basis for a monthly planning cycle was identified. Methods, tools, and metrics for demand forecasting and operations planning were also introduced. Based on the theoretical part, a method for forecasting, a forecast spreadsheet, and a forecast accuracy metric were designed. A spreadsheet tool and methods were also designed for the monthly planning of production volumes, capacity, and inventory. The implementation progress was reviewed for two product families for three months. The sales and operations planning process was able to successfully identify a demand peak for the product families. Suggestions for the future of sales and operations planning were also made.

Production Cycle Optimization: Defining the Market Potential for a New Planning Tool

An optimization tool has been developed to help companies to optimize their production cycles and thus improve their overall supply chain management processes. The application combines the functionality that traditional APS (Advanced Planning System) and ARP (Automatic Replenishment Program) systems provide into one optimization run. A qualitative study was organized to investigate opportunities to expand the product’s market base. Twelve personal interviews were conducted and the results were collected in industry specific production planning analyses. Five process industries were analyzed to identify the product’s suitability to each industry sector and the most important product development areas. Based on the research the paper and the plastic film industries remain the most potential industry sectors at this point. To be successful in other industry sectors some product enhancements would be required, including capabilities to optimize multiple sequential and parallel production cycles, handle sequencing of complex finishing operations and to include master planning capabilities to support overall supply chain optimization. In product sales and marketing processes the key to success is to find and reach the people who are involved directly with the problems that the optimization tool can help to solve.

The requirements and needs of global data usage in product lifecycle management

This study was done for ABB Ltd. Motors and Generators business unit in Helsinki. In this study, global data movement in large businesses is examined from a product data management (PDM) and enterprise resource planning (ERP) point-of-view. The purpose of this study was to understand and map out how a large global business handles its data in a multiple site structure and how it can be applied in practice. This was done by doing an empirical interview study on five different global businesses with design locations in multiple countries. Their master data management (MDM) solutions were inspected and analyzed to understand which solution would best benefit a large global architecture with many design locations. One working solution is a transactional hub which negates the effects of multisite transfers and reduces lead times. Also, the requirements and limitations of the current MDM architecture were analyzed and possible reform ideas given.  

Production planning and optimization of a pulp mill: introduction of the optimisation based scheduling software for pulp industry

The objective of this project was to introduce a new software product to pulp industry, a new market for case company. An optimization based scheduling tool has been developed to allow pulp operations to better control their production processes and improve both production efficiency and stability. Both the work here and earlier research indicates that there is a potential for savings around 1-5%. All the supporting data is available today coming from distributed control systems, data historians and other existing sources. The pulp mill model together with the scheduler, allows what-if analyses of the impacts and timely feasibility of various external actions such as planned maintenance of any particular mill operation. The visibility gained from the model proves also to be a real benefit. The aim is to satisfy demand and gain extra profit, while achieving the required customer service level. Research effort has been put both in understanding the minimum features needed to satisfy the scheduling requirements in the industry and the overall existence of the market. A qualitative study was constructed to both identify competitive situation and the requirements vs. gaps on the market. It becomes clear that there is no such system on the marketplace today and also that there is room to improve target market overall process efficiency through such planning tool. This thesis also provides better overall understanding of the different processes in this particular industry for the case company.

Benefits and challenges of Enterprise Resource Planning for Pakistani SMEs

Enterprise resource planning (ERP) software is used to combine all the functions happening inside the organization with the help of one software. All the data is centralized which makes it easy to manage information for all participants. The literature on ERP is studied thoroughly the whole process of adoption till the implementation and final evaluations. But studies that focus on small and medium sized enterprises are limited in number when compared to the large scale enterprises. In case of Pakistan, research is very limited. In this thesis, the author tries to analyze the current status of SMEs usage of ERP system. The benefits obtained and challenges faced by SMEs of Pakistan are studied. Framework presented by Shang and Seddon (2000) is used to understand the benefits obtained by the SMEs in Pakistan. This is a comprehensive framework that classifies the benefits obtained by the ERP adoption, into five categories: operational benefits, managerial benefits, Strategic benefits, IT benefits, and Organizational benefits. The results show that SMEs of Pakistan are also getting many benefits after adoption of ERP. Most of the firms had implemented SAP software. Operational benefits were mentioned by all the firms. The most important benefits were report generation, quick access to critical information, better product and cost planning. Respondents also mentioned that they had reduced corruption as a result of ERP implementation. It is also an important benefit considering high corruption rate in Pakistan. Along with benefits, challenges faced by Pakistani SMEs included infrastructure problems like electricity, difficulties with integration of one module with other module, costs of adoption and lack of skilled ERP consultants. Further studies in this regard can be conducted on cloud based ERP which is fast growing all around the world.

Katepillarista kauppakassiin : product placement suomalaisessa tv-ohjelmatuotannossa

Product placement has become more and more common in Finnish television programmes lately. Product placement, as with the whole of the television industry, is strictly regulated and monitored by law. Surreptitious advertising, sponsorship, cooperative partnerships and product placement are often confused with each other. Partially these activities are interpenetrative. Present legislation doesn't recognise product placement, therefore it doesn't have any specific position in law, thus causing problems. Product placement in domestic tv-programmes is still relatively modest. More extensive activity is perceivable at the movies where the restrictions are considerably more liberal. In the United States, product placement is a part of a production's budget. Pressure to increase financing has grouwn in both Finland and Europe. There has been considerable preparation in advance of a new television directive in the European Union which would allow more liberal advertising and product placement as a part of financing tv-programmes. The proposal for a new directive is currently only on its first round so product placement probably won't become better defined in law in the near future. Finnish television producers were interviewed as part of the research for this thesis, in order to clarify product placement position and usage in domestic televion programmes. Surreptitious advertising, sponsorship, different kinds of cooperative partnerships and the need for guidance were also discussed in the course of the themed interviews. Even though product placement does not currently play a significant part in the financing of a production, there are certainly pressures in that direktion. In the field of television, the legal boundaries of product placement are presently being explored in order to assess its position as a part of budgeting and covering expenses.

A participatory approach to tactical forest planning

Jyrki Kangas ... [et al.]

A Local DLP-GIS-LP system for geographically decentralized wood procurement planning and decision making

Summary