Analyytikkoennusteiden virheet Suomen markkinoilla

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on selvittää analyytikoiden ennustevirheiden suuruus sekä jakauma. Keskeisenä tavoitteena on selvittää, kuinka paljon yrityksen toimiala ja markkina-arvo vaikuttavat ennustevirheen suuruuteen ja tätä kautta vääristävät osakkeiden hinnoittelua. Tutkimus olettaa, että osakkeiden hinnoittelu perustuu tuotto-odotuksiin eli analyytikoiden tulosennusteisiin sekä riskiin. Tutkimuksessa on käytetty kvantitatiivisia menetelmiä. Tutkimusaineistona on käytetty Helsingin pörssin päälistalla vuosina 1998 – 1999 olleita yrityksiä, joille on annettu tulosennusteita. Tulosennusteet on poimittu manuaalisesti REUTTERS:in tietokannasta. Tulosennusteet vuosille 1998 - 1999 eivät ole selvästi positiivisia tai negatiivisia. Ennustevirheet eivät myöskään ole jakautuneet selvästi toimialan mukaan. Kuitenkin vuonna 1999 ”teollisuus” sekä ”palvelut” toimialoille annettiin selvästi liian pessimistisiä ennusteita. Myöskään yhtiön markkina-arvolla ei ole selvää yhteyttä ennustevirheen suuruuteen. Kuitenkin vuonna 1999 isojen yhtiöiden tuloksista on annettu liian pessimistisiä ja pienten liian positiivisia arvioita. Etsittäessä ennustevirheen selittäjiä regressioanalyysin avulla, vahvimmiksi selittäjiksi nousivat analyytikoiden määrä per yhtiö ja analyytikkoennusteiden keskihajonta. Selittäjät saavuttivat 40 prosentin selitysasteen.

The long run impact of mergers and acquisitions on performance – empirical study in the pulp and paper industry

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have played very important role in restructuring the pulp and paper industry (PPI). The poor performance and fragmented nature of the industry, overcapacity problems, and globalisation have driven companies to consolidate. The objective of this thesis was to examine how PPI acquirers’ have performed subsequent M&As and whether the deal characteristics have had any impact on performance. Based on the results it seems that PPI companies have not been able to enhance their performance in the long run after M&As although the per-formance of acquiring firms has remained above the industry median, and deal characteristics or the amount of premiums paid do not seem to have had any effect. The statistical significance of the results was tested with change model and regression analysis. Performance was assessed with accrual, cash flow, and market based indicators. Results are congruent with behavioural theory: managers and investors seem to be overoptimistic in determining the synergies from M&As.

Growth Strategies in Pulp and Paper Industry: An Empirical Investigation on Profitability Effects

This study investigates whether there are differences in profitability of PPI companies based on the growth strategy they have chosen to follow. It is examined whether those companies following organic growth strategy are more profitable than those companies following acquisitive growth strategy. It is also investigated are ones larger than the others, or are ones growing faster than the others. Also, the factors affecting the profitability of acquisitive companies are further examined. The results showed that there actually are differences between the two groups. Organically grown companies were found to be more profitable, smaller and growing slower than acquisitive companies. When it comes to examining only acquisitive companies there could be found factors that better or worsen the profitability of companies. For example targets that the company has bought in developing markets were making them more profitable.

Abnormal Returns of Dividend Announcements during a Boom and a Recession. Empirical Evidence from U.S. from the years of 2000 - 2002 and 2005 - 2007, including Finnish Extra Dividends

This study examines the short time price effect of dividend announcements during a boom and a recession. The data being used here is gathered from the years of 2000 - 2002 when it was a recession after the techno bubble burst and from the years 2005 - 2007 when investors experienced large capital gains all around the world. The data consists of dividend increases and intact observations. The aim is to find out differences in abnormal returns between a boom and a recession. Second, the study examines differences between different dividend yield brackets. Third, Finnish extra dividends, mainly being delivered to shareholders in 2004 are included to the empirical test. Generally stated, the aim is to find out do investors respect dividends more during a recession than a boom and can this be proved by using dividend yield brackets. The empirical results from U.S shows that the abnormal returns of dividend increase announcements during the recession in the beginning of this decade were larger than during the boom. Thus, investors seem to respect dividend increases more when stock prices are falling. Substantial abnormal returns of dividend increases during the time period of 2005 - 2007 could not be found. The results from the overall samples state that the abnormal returns during the recession were positively slightly higher than during the boom. No clear and strong evidence was found between different dividend yield brackets. In Finland, there were substantial abnormal returns on the announcement day of the extra dividends. Thus, indicating that investors saw the extra dividends as a good thing for shareholders' value. This paper is mostly in line with the theory that investors respect dividends more during bad times than good times.

Abnormal Return of Dividend Announcements during a Boom and a Recession. Empirical evidence from the years of 2002 - 2002 and 2005 - 2007, including the Finnish extra dividends

Tutkimuksen tavoitteena on tutkia epänormaalien tuottojen esiintymistä nousu- ja laskusuhdanteen aikana osingonilmoituspäivän ympärillä. Osinkoilmoitukset ovat kerätty Yhdysvaltojen markkinalta (NYSE) ajanjaksoilta 2000 - 2002, jolloin pörssit laskivat teknokuplan jälkeen ja 2005 - 2007, jolloin sijoittajat kokivat suuria kurssivoittoja. Osinkoilmoitushavainnot koostuvat yhtiöistä, jotka nostivat tai pitivät osinko per osake paikallaan. Tavoitteena on tutkia eroja epänormaaleissa tuotoissa näiden kahden ajanjakson välillä. Toiseksi, tavoitteena on tutkia miten epänormaalit tuotot poikkeavat toisistaan eri osinkotuottoluokissa. Kolmanneksi, tavoitteena on tutkia esiintyikö markkinoilla epänormaaleja tuottoja kun suomalaiset yritykset ilmoittivat ylimääräisistä osingoista, pääasiassa vuonna 2004. Yksinkertaisesti ja lyhyesti sanottuna tavoitteena on tutkia arvostavatko sijoittajat osinkoja enemmän laskukauden vai nousukauden aikana. Rahoitusteorian mukaan sijoittajien tulisi arvostaa laskukauden aikana enemmän yhtiöitä, jotka pystyvät maksamaan huonosta taloustilanteesta huolimatta hyvää osinkoa. Empiiriset testit Yhdysvalloista osoittavat, että osingon nostamisesta johtuvat epänormaalit tuotot olivat suuremmat laskusuhdanteen aikana kuin noususuhdanteen aikana. Tämä on linjassa teorian kanssa. Osingon-nostot aiheuttivat nousukauden aikana vähäisiä epänormaaleja tuottoja. Selviä eroja eri osingontuottoluokkien välillä ei pystytty havaitsemaan. Tulokset yhdistetystä aineistosta osoittavat, että sijoittajat kokivat vähäisiä positiivisia epänormaaleja tuottoja laskukauden aikana. Nousukautena tuotot olivat lähellä nollaa. Suomen markkinoilla havaittiin selvä epänormaalituotto osingonilmoituspäivänä. Tulokset ovat pääpiirteittäin linjassa teorian kanssa. Sijoittajat arvostavat osinkoja hieman enemmän lasku- kuin noususuhdanteen aikana.

Threat Simulation- The Function of Dreaming?

Dreaming is a pure form of phenomenality, created by the brain untouched by external stimulation or behavioral activity, yet including a full range of phenomenal contents. Thus, it has been suggested that the dreaming brain could be used as a model system in a biological research program on consciousness (Revonsuo, 2006). In the present thesis, the philosophical view of biological realism is accepted, and thus, dreaming is considered as a natural biological phenomenon, explainable in naturalistic terms. The major theoretical contribution of the present thesis is that it explores dreaming from a multidisciplinary perspective, integrating information from various fields of science, such as dream research, consciousness research, evolutionary psychology, and cognitive neuroscience. Further, it places dreaming into a multilevel framework, and investigates the constitutive, etiological, and contextual explanations for dreaming. Currently, the only theory offering a full multilevel explanation for dreaming, that is, a theory including constitutive, etiological, and contextual level explanations, is the Threat Simulation Theory (TST) (Revonsuo, 2000a; 2000b). The empirical significance of the present thesis lies in the tests conducted to test this specific theory put forth to explain the form, content, and biological function of dreaming. The first step in the empirical testing of the TST was to define exact criteria for what is a ‘threatening event’ in dreams, and then to develop a detailed and reliable content analysis scale with which it is possible to empirically explore and quantify threatening events in dreams. The second step was to seek answers to the following questions derived from the TST: How frequent threatening events are in dreams? What kind of qualities these events have? How threatening events in dreams relate to the most recently encoded or the most salient memory traces of threatening events experienced in waking life? What are the effects of exposure to severe waking life threat on dreams? The results reveal that threatening events are relatively frequent in dreams, and that the simulated threats are realistic. The most common threats include aggression, are targeted mainly against the dream self, and include simulations of relevant and appropriate defensive actions. Further, real threat experiences activate the threat simulation system in a unique manner, and dream content is modulated by the activation of long term episodic memory traces with highest negative saliency. To sum up, most of the predictions of the TST tested in this thesis received considerable support. The TST presents a strong argument that explains the specific design of dreams as threat simulations. The TST also offers a plausible explanation for why dreaming would have been selected for: because dreaming interacted with the environment in such a way that enhanced fitness of ancestral humans. By referring to a single threat simulation mechanism it furthermore manages to explain a wide variety of dream content data that already exists in the literature, and to predict the overall statistical patterns of threat content in different samples of dreams. The TST and the empirical tests conducted to test the theory are a prime example of what a multidisciplinary approach to mental phenomena can accomplish. Thus far, dreaming seems to have always resided in the periphery of science, never regarded worth to be studied by the mainstream. Nevertheless, when brought to the spotlight, the study of dreaming can greatly benefit from ideas in diverse branches of science. Vice versa, knowledge learned from the study of dreaming can be applied in various disciplines. The main contribution of the present thesis lies in putting dreaming back where it belongs, that is, into the spotlight in the cross-road of various disciplines.

Time-varying Risk Premiums and Conditional Market Risk: Empirical Evidence from European Stock Markets

This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.

Analyzing customer profitability: an empirical study

The purpose of this study was to define the customer profitability of the case company as well as to specify the factors that explain customer profitability. The study was made with a quantitative research method. The research hypotheses were formulated mainly on the grounds of previous research, and were tested with statistical research methods. The research results showed that customer profitability is not equally distributed among the customers of the case company, and the majority of its customers is profitable. The interpreters for absolute customer profitability were sales volume and the customer’s location region. The interpreters for relative customer profitability were the customer’s location region and the product segment into which a customer can be classified on the basis of the products that were sold to this customer.

Determining risk potential through accidents and near-accidents: an empirical study in a steel factory

Fatal and permanently disabling accidents form only one per I cent of all occupational accidents but in many branches of industry they account for more than half the accident costs. Furthermore the human suffering of the victim and his family is greater in severe accidents than in slight ones. For both human and economic reasons the severe accident risks should be identified befor injuries occur. It is for this purpose that different safety analysis methods have been developed . This study shows two new possible approaches to the problem.. The first is the hypothesis that it is possible to estimate the potential severity of accidents independent of the actual severity. The second is the hypothesis that when workers are also asked to report near accidents, they are particularly prone to report potentially severe near accidents on the basis of their own subjective risk assessment. A field study was carried out in a steel factory. The results supported both the hypotheses. The reliability and the validity of post incident estimates of an accident's potential severity were reasonable. About 10 % of accidents were estimated to be potentially critical; they could have led to death or very severe permanent disability. Reported near accidents were significantly more severe, about 60 $ of them were estimated to be critical. Furthermore the validity of workers subjective risk assessment, manifested in the near accident reports, proved to be reasonable. The studied new methods require further development and testing. They could be used both in routine usage in work places and in research for identifying and setting the priorities of accident risks.

Strategic groups and performance: an empirical analysis of strategic groups in the wind energy industry in Europe

The strategic group theory provides an intermediate level of analysis between a single company and the whole industry for identifying issues about the company's competitive position and strategic choices. Strategic groups are companies within an industry with similar strategic characteristics or competing on similar bases. Strategic choices are aligned with the firms’ resources. The purpose of this study was to identify the strategic groups in the wind energy industry in Europe, and study, whether a certain group membership results in financial performance differences. Altogether 80 European wind energy companies were included in the study, which were clustered into four strategic groups according to their age and growth rate. Each group corresponds to a different strategy. The results show that the wind energy companies can be clustered according to the chosen strategic characteristics. Strategic decisions were investigated with characteristic variables. Performance variables were used in the analysis measuring profitability, liquidity and solvency of the groups. These strategic choices of the companies did not have a significant influence on the firms’ performance. The more mature and slower growing group proved to be the most successful. However, the differences between groups were generally not statistically significant. The only statistically significant difference found was in the solvency ratio between Mature Slow and Young Rapid groups. Measured with these variables, more mature and slower growing companies performed better. Therefore, a certain strategic group membership results in performance differences.

Strategic choices and performance – an empirical analysis of largest European and North American energy companies

Energy industry has gone through major changes globally in past two decades. Liberalization of energy markets has led companies to integrate both vertically and horizontally. Growing concern on sustainable development and aims to decrease greenhouse gases in future will increase the portion of renewable energy in total energy production. Purpose of this study was to analyze using statistical methods, what impacts different strategic choices has on biggest European and North American energy companies’ performance. Results show that vertical integration, horizontal integration and use of renewable energy in production had the most impact on profitability. Increase in level of vertical integration decreased companies’ profitability, while increase in horizontal integration improved companies’ profitability. Companies that used renewable energy in production were less profitable than companies not using renewable energy.