Inclusive fitness theory and eusociality.

Arising from M. A. Nowak, C. E. Tarnita & E. O. Wilson 466, 1057-1062 (2010); Nowak et al. reply. Nowak et al. argue that inclusive fitness theory has been of little value in explaining the natural world, and that it has led to negligible progress in explaining the evolution of eusociality. However, we believe that their arguments are based upon a misunderstanding of evolutionary theory and a misrepresentation of the empirical literature. We will focus our comments on three general issues.

Social Cognition is not Reducible to Theory of Mind. When Children use Deontic Rules to Predict Others' Behaviors

The objective of this paper is to discuss whether children have a capacity for deonticreasoning that is irreducible to mentalizing. The results of two experiments point tothe existence of such non-mentalistic understanding and prediction of the behaviourof others. In Study 1, young children (3- and 4-year-olds) were told different versionsof classic false-belief tasks, some of which were modified by the introduction of a ruleor a regularity. When the task (a standard change of location task) included a rule, theperformance of 3-year-olds, who fail traditional false-belief tasks, significantly improved.In Study 2, 3-year-olds proved to be able to infer a rule from a social situation and touse it in order to predict the behaviour of a character involved in a modified versionof the false-belief task. These studies suggest that rules play a central role in the socialcognition of young children and that deontic reasoning might not necessarily involvemind reading.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

The effects of dominance, regular inbreeding and sampling design on Q(ST), an estimator of population differentiation for quantitative traits.

To test whether quantitative traits are under directional or homogenizing selection, it is common practice to compare population differentiation estimates at molecular markers (F(ST)) and quantitative traits (Q(ST)). If the trait is neutral and its determinism is additive, then theory predicts that Q(ST) = F(ST), while Q(ST) > F(ST) is predicted under directional selection for different local optima, and Q(ST) < F(ST) is predicted under homogenizing selection. However, nonadditive effects can alter these predictions. Here, we investigate the influence of dominance on the relation between Q(ST) and F(ST) for neutral traits. Using analytical results and computer simulations, we show that dominance generally deflates Q(ST) relative to F(ST). Under inbreeding, the effect of dominance vanishes, and we show that for selfing species, a better estimate of Q(ST) is obtained from selfed families than from half-sib families. We also compare several sampling designs and find that it is always best to sample many populations (>20) with few families (five) rather than few populations with many families. Provided that estimates of Q(ST) are derived from individuals originating from many populations, we conclude that the pattern Q(ST) > F(ST), and hence the inference of directional selection for different local optima, is robust to the effect of nonadditive gene actions.

Ispol'zovanie metodov teorii vosstanovleniia v modeliakh optimal'nogo dobyvaniia pishchi [Restoration theory in models of optimal feeding behavior]

The method of stochastic dynamic programming is widely used in ecology of behavior, but has some imperfections because of use of temporal limits. The authors presented an alternative approach based on the methods of the theory of restoration. Suggested method uses cumulative energy reserves per time unit as a criterium, that leads to stationary cycles in the area of states. This approach allows to study the optimal feeding by analytic methods.

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theory

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theoryCette thèse est composée de trois essais qui portent sur l'efficacité des évaluations récursives de la distribution du montant total des sinistres d'un portefeuille de polices d'assurance au cours d'un période donnée. Le calcul de sa fonction de probabilité ou de quantités liées à cette distribution apparaît fréquemment dans la plupart des domaines de la pratique actuarielle.C'est le cas notamment pour le calcul du capital de solvabilité en Suisse ou pour modéliser la perte d'une assurance vie au cours d'une année. Le principal problème des évaluations récursives est que la propagation des erreurs provenant de la représentation des nombres réels par l'ordinateur peut être désastreuse. Mais, le gain de temps qu'elles procurent en réduisant le nombre d'opérations arithmétiques est substantiel par rapport à d'autres méthodes.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons certaines propriétés d'un outil informatique performant afin d'optimiser le temps de calcul tout en garantissant une certaine qualité dans les résultats par rapport à la propagation de ces erreurs au cours de l'évaluation.Dans le second essai, nous dérivons des expressions exactes et des bornes pour les erreurs qui se produisent dans les fonctions de distribution cumulatives d'un ordre donné lorsque celles-ci sont évaluées récursivement à partir d'une approximation de la transformée de De Pril associée. Ces fonctions cumulatives permettent de calculer directement certaines quantités essentielles comme les primes stop-loss.Finalement, dans le troisième essai, nous étudions la stabilité des évaluations récursives de ces fonctions cumulatives par rapport à la propagation des erreurs citées ci-dessus et déterminons la précision nécessaire dans la représentation des nombres réels afin de garantir des résultats satisfaisants. Cette précision dépend en grande partie de la transformée de De Pril associée.

Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A test of Jessor's problem behavior theory in a Eurasian and a Western European developmental context.

PURPOSE: The current study tested the applicability of Jessor's problem behavior theory (PBT) in national probability samples from Georgia and Switzerland. Comparisons focused on (1) the applicability of the problem behavior syndrome (PBS) in both developmental contexts, and (2) on the applicability of employing a set of theory-driven risk and protective factors in the prediction of problem behaviors. METHODS: School-based questionnaire data were collected from n = 18,239 adolescents in Georgia (n = 9499) and Switzerland (n = 8740) following the same protocol. Participants rated five measures of problem behaviors (alcohol and drug use, problems because of alcohol and drug use, and deviance), three risk factors (future uncertainty, depression, and stress), and three protective factors (family, peer, and school attachment). Final study samples included n = 9043 Georgian youth (mean age = 15.57; 58.8% females) and n = 8348 Swiss youth (mean age = 17.95; 48.5% females). Data analyses were completed using structural equation modeling, path analyses, and post hoc z-tests for comparisons of regression coefficients. RESULTS: Findings indicated that the PBS replicated in both samples, and that theory-driven risk and protective factors accounted for 13% and 10% in Georgian and Swiss samples, respectively in the PBS, net the effects by demographic variables. Follow-up z-tests provided evidence of some differences in the magnitude, but not direction, in five of six individual paths by country. CONCLUSION: PBT and the PBS find empirical support in these Eurasian and Western European samples; thus, Jessor's theory holds value and promise in understanding the etiology of adolescent problem behaviors outside of the United States.

Population differentiation and its consequences in the white campion "Silene latifolia" (Caryophyllaceae): a functional analysis

Summary In his theory On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection (1859), Darwin describes evolution as a gradual change in population over time and that natural selection is a process that caused evolution. Because quantitative variation in species is partly influenced by several genes and thus heritable, association between levels of genetic variation at neutral markers and at quantitative traits and their partitioning within and among populations are important to study mechanisms that drive evolution in populations. Most studies addressing quantitative variation in plants focused on morphological and life history traits but not in traits affecting reproductive success. The aim of this thesis is to better understand how patterns of variation for neutral molecular markers and phenotypic traits drive the evolution of reproduction and defensive mechanisms in six European populations of Silene latifolia, a dioecious plant species. We found evidence for extremely high within and between population variation at six microsatellite loci and at most quantitative traits studied in plants grown under standardized conditions (morphology, life history and reproductive traits). Interestingly, there was clinal variation between age at first flowering and latitude. This pattern is likely due to natural selection since differentiation of this trait was high, heritable and probably higher than differentiation at neutral markers. Our study focused on sex specific selective pressures: mechanisms of intersexual coadaptation and defence mechanism against the seed predator Hadena bicruris. To address divergence at reproductive traits, we studied male and female population of origin effects and in particular pollen competitive ability on male post-pollination success in the study populations with within and between populations crosses. We crossed the same female plant with pollen from a male within the same population of origin and pollen from two males from two distinct populations, using a fixed tester male as a competitor. Additionally, we conducted control crosses with pollen from each male as a single donor. We analysed paternity success of each competitor with two microsatellite loci, seed set and offspring fitness. Male population of origin showed significant among-population variation for siring success at pollen competition. In vitro pollen germination rate showed heritable variation among populations and was positively correlated to siring success. Local or foreign pollen did not have a consistent advantage. Furthermore, female population of origin affected the outcome of pollen competition in some populations. There was no difference of seed set or offspring fitness in within/ between population crosses. This suggests that reproductive divergence may occur via pollen competition in Silene latifolia. The specialist seed predator Hadena bicruris may also induce divergence between populations. We tested potential constitutive and induced defence mechanisms against the specialist predator Hadena bicruris. Because fruit wall thickness is smaller in the invasive range (Northern America) were the moth is absent, this suggests that a thicker fruit wall is a potentially defensive trait against larval attack, and that relaxed selection in the absence of the seed predator has resulted in an evolutionary loss of this defence in the invasive range. Fruit wall thickness was different among three populations. Experimental exposure to moth eggs increased fruit abortion. Fruits built after attack on exposed plants did not have thicker fruit walls compared to fruits on non-exposed plants. Furthermore, fruits with thicker fruit walls were not less profitable, nor did they require longer handling time when exposed to larvae, suggesting no defensive role of fruit wall thickness. Our results show that there is high molecular and phenotypic variation in Silene latifolia and that traits potentially involved in reproductive success both for intra-specific (between sexes) and inter-specific interactions are heritable. Different selective forces may thus interact and cause differential evolution of geographically separated Silene latifolia populations in Europe, leading to the observed differentiation. Résumé Dans sa théorie de l'évolution, L'origine des espèces, ch. 4 (1859), Darwin décrit l'évolution comme un processus continu au cours du temps à l'intérieur de populations et que la sélection naturelle en est le moteur. La variation quantitative est en partie déterminée par plusieurs gènes, donc transmissible à la descendance. Associer le niveau de variation génétique à des marqueurs neutres au niveau de la variation à des traits quantitatifs, ainsi que la répartition à l'intérieur et entre les populations d'une espèce donnée de cette variation, sont importants dans la compréhension des forces évolutives. La plupart des études scientifiques sur la variation quantitative chez les plantes se sont intéressées à la morphologie et à la phénologie mais pas aux caractères impliqués dans le succès reproducteur. L'objectif de cette thèse est de mieux comprendre comment la répartition de la variation à des marqueurs neutres et des caractères quantitatifs influence l'évolution de la reproduction et des mécanismes de défense dans six populations Européennes de l'espèce dioïque Silene latifolia. Nous avons mis en évidence une grande diversité intra et inter-population à six loci microsatellites ainsi qu'à la plupart des caractères quantitatifs mesurés (morphologie, phénologie et traits reproducteurs) sur des plantes cultivées dans des conditions standardisées. Un résultat intéressant est la présence d'un cline latitudinal pour l'âge à la floraison. Ceci est probablement une conséquence de la sélection naturelle, puisque ce caractère est différencié entre les populations étudiées, héritable et que la différenciation de ce trait est supérieure à la différenciation des marqueurs neutres étudiés. Notre étude a ensuite porté plus précisément sur les pressions de sélection spécifiques aux sexes : la coadaptation entre les sexes et les mécanismes de défense contre l'insecte granivore Hadena bicruris. Afin d'évaluer la divergence sur les traits reproducteurs, nous avons étudié les effets des populations d'origine des mâles et des femelles et en particulier le succès reproducteur des mâles après pollinisation à l'aide de croisements inter et intra-population. Nous avons pollinisé la même femelle avec du pollen provenant d'un mâle de la même population ainsi qu'avec le pollen de deux mâles provenant de deux autres populations en situation de compétition avec un pollen provenant d'une population test. Des croisements contrôle ont été réalisés avec les mêmes mâles en pollinisation pure. Nous avons évalué le succès reproducteur de chaque mâle à l'aide d'analyses de paternité ainsi que la production de graines et la fitness de la descendance. L'origine du mâle avait un effet sur la paternité. Le taux de croissance in vitro du pollen est un caractère héritable et a eu un effet positif sur le succès reproducteur. De plus, l'origine de la femelle avait un effet sur le succès des mâles en compétition dans certaines populations. Nos résultats suggèrent qu'une divergence reproductive chez Silene latifolia pourrait apparaître suite à la compétition pollinique. Nous avons ensuite testé des mécanismes potentiels de défense constitutive et induite contre l'herbivore spécialiste Hadena bicruris, un papillon nocturne qui pourrait aussi jouer un rôle dans la différenciation des populations. L'épaisseur des fruits étant plus faible dans les régions où la plante est invasive (Amérique du Nord) et où l'insecte est absent, ce trait pourrait jouer un rôle défensif. Une pression de sélection plus faible causée par l'absence de l'herbivore aurait abouti à une perte de cette défense dans ces régions. Nous avons montré que l'épaisseur du fruit est variable selon les populations. L'infestation artificielle de fruit par l'insecte induit l'abscission sélective des fruits. Les fruits produits après une infestation n'étaient pas plus épais que les fruits issus de plantes non infestées. De plus, les fruits épais n'étaient pas moins nutritifs et ne causaient pas de perte de temps pour la prédation pour les larves, ce qui suggère que l'épaisseur des fruits ne joue pas un rôle défensif. Nos résultats montrent que plusieurs pressions de sélection interviennent et interagissent dans l'évolution de populations distantes, provoquant la divergence des populations Européennes de l'espèce Silene latifolia.

Processes models, environmental analyses, and cognitive architectures: Quo vadis quantum probability theory? (Commentary on Pothos and Busemeyer)

A lot of research in cognition and decision making suffers from a lack of formalism. The quantum probability program could help to improve this situation, but we wonder whether it would provide even more added value if its presumed focus on outcome models were complemented by process models that are, ideally, informed by ecological analyses and integrated into cognitive architectures.

On the Schoenberg transformations in data analysis: theory and illustrations

The class of Schoenberg transformations, embedding Euclidean distances into higher dimensional Euclidean spaces, is presented, and derived from theorems on positive definite and conditionally negative definite matrices. Original results on the arc lengths, angles and curvature of the transformations are proposed, and visualized on artificial data sets by classical multidimensional scaling. A distance-based discriminant algorithm and a robust multidimensional centroid estimate illustrate the theory, closely connected to the Gaussian kernels of Machine Learning.

Genetic basis and variable phenotypic expression of Kallmann syndrome: towards a unifying theory.

Idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (IHH) is defined by absent or incomplete puberty and characterised biochemically by low levels of sex steroids, with low or inappropriately normal gonadotropin hormones. IHH is frequently accompanied by non-reproductive abnormalities, most commonly anosmia, which is present in 50-60% of cases and defines Kallmann syndrome. The understanding of IHH has undergone rapid evolution, both in respect of genetics and breadth of phenotype. Once considered in monogenic Mendelian terms, it is now more coherently understood as a complex genetic condition. Oligogenic and complex genetic-environmental interactions have now been identified, with physiological and environmental factors interacting in genetically susceptible individuals to alter the clinical course and phenotype. These potentially link IHH to ancient evolutionary pressures on the ancestral human genome.

Bioavailability of repeated oral administration of MDL 100,240, a dual inhibitor of angiotensin-converting enzyme and neutral endopeptidase in healthy volunteers.

BACKGROUND: MDL 100,240 (pyrido[2,1-a] [2]benzazepine-4-carboxylic acid,7-[[2-(acetylthio)-1-oxo-3-phenylpropyl]amino]-1,2,3,4,6,7,8, 12b-octahydro-6-oxo, [4S-[4alpha,7alpha(R(*)),12bbeta]]-) is a molecule possessing an inhibiting ability on both angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) and neutral endopeptidase, the enzyme responsible for atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) degradation. Such a dual mechanism of action presents a potential clinical interest for the treatment of hypertension and congestive heart failure. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the bioavailability of MDL 100,240 and its accumulation over repeated oral administration, using ACE inhibition as a surrogate for plasma drug level and determining its profile after oral and i.v. administration. METHODS: First, in an open, one-period, single-dose study, the ACE inhibition profile was characterised following a 12.5 mg MDL 100,240 i.v. infusion. Second, in a three-group, parallel, randomised, double-blind study, each group of four subjects received q.d., over 8 days, 2.5, 10 or 20 mg of MDL 100,240 orally. The ACE inhibition profile was determined on day 1 and day 8. Trough plasma ACE was measured on days 2, 3 and 4. The recovery of ACE activity was monitored up to 72 h after the last dose of MDL 100,240. RESULTS: ACE inhibition profile was similar on day 1 and day 8, and trough inhibition remained unchanged after the 8 days of treatment with 10 mg or 20 mg. Following repeated 2.5-mg ingestion, trough inhibition increased from 33% to 44% after the eighth dose. The oral bioavailability of MDL 100,240 was estimated at 85%, not statistically different from 100%. The accumulation ratio at steady state was estimated at 112%. Expressing the accumulation ratio in terms of half-life, a t(1/2) of 0.31 days or 7. 5 h was estimated. CONCLUSION: MDL 100,240 (oral solution) has a good bioavailability, as estimated by ACE inhibition, and no drug accumulation seems to occur over 8 days with the 10-mg and 20-mg doses, but a slight rise in the trough level is observed with the 2. 5-mg dose.