H. Itàlia, la gran mutació (Berlusconi)

Conté: Italia, en la gran mutación; Italia, ante el factor B; Italia: leyes a la medida; Andreotti, dos caras de Italia; Berlusconi, cogido en sus trampas; Italia, partida en dos; Italia, en el disparadero; Italia a la deriva; Roma, entre las varias Italias; Berlusconi: dos caras, a cual peor

Los mundos posibles del discurso de Berlusconi. Un análisis de la evolución del contenido a través de cuatro discursos del líder del centro-derecha italiano

El siguiente trabajo es un estudio sobre las dinámicas y los contenidos de la comunicación política de Silvio Berlusconi y su partido, analizada mediante una perspectiva histórica y sociológica y mediante el análisis de cuatro discursospronunciados por Berlusconi a lo largo de 15 años.Para el análisis del discurso se utiliza la metodología elaborada por Jordi Pericot yArantxa Capdevila a partir de la “Teoría de la Argumentación” de Chaïm Perelman y dela teoría de los mundos posibles.

Informational matching

This paper analyzes the problem of matching heterogeneous agents in aBayesian learning model. One agent gives a noisy signal to another agent,who is responsible for learning. If production has a strong informationalcomponent, a phase of cross-matching occurs, so that agents of low knowledgecatch up with those of higher one. It is shown that:(i) a greater informational component in production makes cross-matchingmore likely;(ii) as the new technology is mastered, production becomes relatively morephysical and less informational;(iii) a greater dispersion of the ability to learn and transfer informationmakes self-matching more likely; and(iv) self-matching leads to more self-matching, whereas cross-matching canmake less productive agents overtake more productive ones.

Job creation under liquidity constraints: The Spanish case

This paper shows that liquidity constraints restrict jobcreation even when labor markets are flexible. In a dynamicmodel of labor demand, I show that in an environment of imperfect capital and imperfect labor markets, firms usetemporary contracts to relax financial constraints. Evidence for the predictions of the model is presented using Spanish data from the CBBE (Central de Balances del Banco de España - Balance Sheet data from the Bank of Spain). It is shown that firms substitute temporary laborfor permanent one and use less debt as their financial position improves. In particular, it is rejected that Spanish firms operate in an environment of free capital markets and of no labor adjustment costs. The labor reform of 1984, which created temporary contracts, implied to some extent a relaxation of liquidity constraints.Accordingly, firms used these contracts more extensivelyand used less debt; however, as capital markets continueto be imperfect, permanent job creation continues to beslow. Consequently, relaxation of liquidity constraints should also be part of a job creation strategy.

Firm investment in imperfect capital markets: A structural estimation

We set up a dynamic model of firm investment in which liquidity constraintsenter explicity into the firm's maximization problem. The optimal policyrules are incorporated into a maximum likelihood procedure which estimatesthe structural parameters of the model. Investment is positively related tothe firm's internal financial position when the firm is relatively poor. This relationship disappears for wealthy firms, which can reach theirdesired level of investment. Borrowing is an increasing function of financial position for poor firms. This relationship is reversed as a firm's financial position improves, and large firms hold little debt.Liquidity constrained firms may be unused credits lines and the capacity toinvest further if they desire. However the fear that liquidity constraintswill become binding in the future induces them to invest only when internalresources increase.We estimate the structural parameters of the model and use them to quantifythe importance of liquidity constraints on firms' investment. We find thatliquidity constraints matter significantly for the investment decisions of firms. If firms can finance investment by issuing fresh equity, rather than with internal funds or debt, average capital stock is almost 35% higher overa period of 20 years. Transitory shocks to internal funds have a sustained effect on the capital stock. This effect lasts for several periods and ismore persistent for small firms than for large firms. A 10% negative shock to firm fundamentals reduces the capital stock of firms which face liquidityconstraints by almost 8% over a period as opposed to only 3.5% for firms which do not face these constraints.

Fixed and random effects in Classical and Bayesian regression

This paper proposes a common and tractable framework for analyzingdifferent definitions of fixed and random effects in a contant-slopevariable-intercept model. It is shown that, regardless of whethereffects (i) are treated as parameters or as an error term, (ii) areestimated in different stages of a hierarchical model, or whether (iii)correlation between effects and regressors is allowed, when the sameinformation on effects is introduced into all estimation methods, theresulting slope estimator is also the same across methods. If differentmethods produce different results, it is ultimately because differentinformation is being used for each methods.

Job search and asset accumulation under borrowing constraints

In this paper I show how borrowing constraints and job search interact.I fit a dynamic model to data from the National Longitudinal Survey(1979-cohort) and show that borrowing constraints are significant. Agentswith more initial assets and more access to credit attain higher wagesfor several periods after high school graduation. The unemployed maintaintheir consumption by running down their assets, while the employed saveto buffer against future unemployment spells. I also show that, unlikein models with exogenous income streams, unemployment transfers, byallowing agents to attain higher wages do not 'crowd out' but increasesaving.

Fragile-glass behavior of a short-range p-spin model

We propose a short-range generalization of the p-spin interaction spin-glass model. The model is well suited to test the idea that an entropy collapse is at the bottom line of the dynamical singularity encountered in structural glasses. The model is studied in three dimensions through Monte Carlo simulations, which put in evidence fragile glass behavior with stretched exponential relaxation and super-Arrhenius behavior of the relaxation time. Our data are in favor of a Vogel-Fulcher behavior of the relaxation time, related to an entropy collapse at the Kauzmann temperature. We, however, encounter difficulties analogous to those found in experimental systems when extrapolating thermodynamical data at low temperatures. We study the spin-glass susceptibility, investigating the behavior of the correlation length in the system. We find that the increase of the relaxation time is accompanied by a very slow growth of the correlation length. We discuss the scaling properties of off-equilibrium dynamics in the glassy regime, finding qualitative agreement with the mean-field theory.