Strategies for sequential prediction of stationary time series

We present simple procedures for the prediction of a real valued sequence. The algorithms are based on a combinationof several simple predictors. We show that if the sequence is a realization of a bounded stationary and ergodic random process then the average of squared errors converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor. We offer an analog result for the prediction of stationary gaussian processes.

Improved nonparametric confidence intervals in time series regressions

Condence intervals in econometric time series regressions suffer fromnotorious coverage problems. This is especially true when the dependencein the data is noticeable and sample sizes are small to moderate, as isoften the case in empirical studies. This paper suggests using thestudentized block bootstrap and discusses practical issues, such as thechoice of the block size. A particular data-dependent method is proposedto automate the method. As a side note, it is pointed out that symmetricconfidence intervals are preferred over equal-tailed ones, since theyexhibit improved coverage accuracy. The improvements in small sampleperformance are supported by a simulation study.

A simple randomized algorithm for consistent sequential prediction of ergodic time series

We present a simple randomized procedure for the prediction of a binary sequence. The algorithm uses ideas from recent developments of the theory of the prediction of individual sequences. We show that if thesequence is a realization of a stationary and ergodic random process then the average number of mistakes converges, almost surely, to that of the optimum, given by the Bayes predictor.

Setting standards: Information accumulation in development

We propose a model in which economic relations and institutions in advancedand less developed economies differ as these societies have access to different amounts of information. This lack of information makes it hard to give the right incentives to managers and entrepreneurs. We argue that differences in the amount of information arise because of the differences in the scale of activities in rich and poor economies; namely, there is too little repetition of similar activities in pooreconomies, thus insufficient information to set the appropriate standards for firm performance. Our model predicts a number of institutional and structural transformations as the economy accumulates capital and information.

Implantacion ISO 27001 LAMUTA

Implantacion de la ISO27001 en una empresa.

Estudio sobre la resistencia quimica de baldosas ceramicas no-esmaltadas para pavimentos industriales

The chemical resistance of ceramic tiles is the subject of the European Standard UNE-EN ISO 10545-13. In order to evaluate the effect of aqueous solutions of several chemicals agents on the aspect of the tile surface, this standard establishes a series of tests at room temperature followed by visual inspection. According to this standard the tiles of this study are classified as being of maximum resistance (UHA). However operating conditions can be more aggressive than those detailed in the standard. So, a systematic study has been undertaken. In the present work, the effect of aqueous solutions of several organic and inorganic acids on the tile surface is evaluated. Samples immersed in different solutions are subjected to the following conditions: T= 60º C; pH=2 and to agitation processes. Visual analysis, as well as optical microscopy and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were performed in order to determine the possible variation of the superficial aspect of tiles. Moreover, atomic absorption spectrophotometry has been used in order to obtain quantitative information concerning the solubility of system M (III)-L (M= Fe; L= H2O or L= ligand). The results obtained show, in all cases, a progressive dissolution of iron oxide precipitates presents in the ceramic body

Standards and specifications to manage accessibility issues in e-learning

Standards and specifícations to manage accessibility issues in e-learning

Nets: Network estimation for time series

This work proposes novel network analysis techniques for multivariate time series.We define the network of a multivariate time series as a graph where verticesdenote the components of the process and edges denote non zero long run partialcorrelations. We then introduce a two step LASSO procedure, called NETS, toestimate high dimensional sparse Long Run Partial Correlation networks. This approachis based on a VAR approximation of the process and allows to decomposethe long run linkages into the contribution of the dynamic and contemporaneousdependence relations of the system. The large sample properties of the estimatorare analysed and we establish conditions for consistent selection and estimation ofthe non zero long run partial correlations. The methodology is illustrated with anapplication to a panel of U.S. bluechips.

Implantación de la ISO 14001 en una planta de tratamiento de vehículos fuera de uso (VFU)

Nos hemos propuesto implantar la ISO 14001 en un centro autorizado de tratamiento de vehículos fuera de uso, denominado Recycling Gandía, S.L., con el fin de que dicho centro pueda obtener una ventaja competitiva, respecto de otros centros ubicados próximamente, dada la fuerte competencia existente. Con la implantación de un Sistema de Gestión Medioambiental y más concretamente la ISO 14001, se puede conseguir una mejora de la imagen de la empresa, un ahorro de costes, se pueden mejorar las relaciones con la Administración e incluso con las entidades financieras, se puede contribuir a la motivación de los trabajadores, se asegura el cumplimiento de la legislación ambiental. La actividad que nos ocupa, se dedica a la recepción y descontaminación de vehículos al final de su vida útil, reutilizando piezas o componentes de recambio., Los objetivos del presente trabajo van a ser fundamentalmente, el implantar el Manual de Gestión Ambiental en la planta de tratamiento de vehículos fuera de uso y el describir todos los procedimientos genéricos a seguir. Como conclusiones de este trabajo, tendremos las auditorías con las no conformidades detectadas, así como el compromiso adquirido en todos los niveles y departamentos de la empresa, lo cual se traducirá en una mejor satisfacción de los clientes y por tanto un aumento en el número de vehículos a tratar.

Elaboración de un plan de implementación de la ISO/IEC 27001:2005

El presente trabajo permite conocer el proceso de implantación de un sistema de gestión de seguridad de la información SGSI en una organización perteneciente al sector financiero y los resultados asociados a dicha implantación.

Stationarity analysis of historical flood series in France and Spain (14th-20th centuries)

Interdisciplinary frameworks for studying natural hazards and their temporal trends have an important potential in data generation for risk assessment, land use planning, and therefore the sustainable management of resources. This paper focuses on the adjustments required because of the wide variety of scientific fields involved in the reconstruction and characterisation of flood events for the past 1000 years. The aim of this paper is to describe various methodological aspects of the study of flood events in their historical dimension, including the critical evaluation of old documentary and instrumental sources, flood-event classification and hydraulic modelling, and homogeneity and quality control tests. Standardized criteria for flood classification have been defined and applied to the Isère and Drac floods in France, from 1600 to 1950, and to the Ter, the Llobregat and the Segre floods, in Spain, from 1300 to 1980. The analysis on the Drac and Isère data series from 1600 to the present day showed that extraordinary and catastrophic floods were not distributed uniformly in time. However, the largest floods (general catastrophic floods) were homogeneously distributed in time within the period 1600¿1900. No major flood occurred during the 20th century in these rivers. From 1300 to the present day, no homogeneous behaviour was observed for extraordinary floods in the Spanish rivers. The largest floods were uniformly distributed in time within the period 1300-1900, for the Segre and Ter rivers.

The use of ISO 9001 quality standard in higher education institution libraries

[eng] ISO standard 9001 is one of a set of management tools that libraries have adopted in recent years. This article focuses on libraries in higher education institutions that have received ISO certification of their quality management systems (ISO standard 9001:2000). We examine their reasons for seeking certification and the advantages and difficulties they have encountered in applying this ISO standard. Finally, we consider the future prospects of ISO standard 9001 in university libraries.

L'ús de la norma de qualitat ISO 9001 a les biblioteques d'institucions d'educació superior

[eng] ISO standard 9001 is one of a set of management tools that libraries have adopted in recent years. This article focuses on libraries in higher education institutions that have received ISO certification of their quality management systems (ISO standard 9001:2000). We examine their reasons for seeking certification and the advantages and difficulties they have encountered in applying this ISO standard. Finally, we consider the future prospects of ISO standard 9001 in university libraries.

El uso de la norma de calidad ISO 9001 en las bibliotecas de instituciones de educación superior

[eng] ISO standard 9001 is one of a set of management tools that libraries have adopted in recent years. This article focuses on libraries in higher education institutions that have received ISO certification of their quality management systems (ISO standard 9001:2000). We examine their reasons for seeking certification and the advantages and difficulties they have encountered in applying this ISO standard. Finally, we consider the future prospects of ISO standard 9001 in university libraries.