Efficient interval scoring rules

Scoring rules that elicit an entire belief distribution through the elicitation of point beliefsare time-consuming and demand considerable cognitive e¤ort. Moreover, the results are validonly when agents are risk-neutral or when one uses probabilistic rules. We investigate a classof rules in which the agent has to choose an interval and is rewarded (deterministically) onthe basis of the chosen interval and the realization of the random variable. We formulatean e¢ ciency criterion for such rules and present a speci.c interval scoring rule. For single-peaked beliefs, our rule gives information about both the location and the dispersion of thebelief distribution. These results hold for all concave utility functions.

Rules or consequences? The role of ethical mindsets in moral dynamics

Recent research on the dynamics of moral behavior has documented two contrastingphenomena - moral consistency and moral balancing. Moral balancing refers to thephenomenon whereby behaving (un)ethically decreases the likelihood of doing so againat a later time. Moral consistency describes the opposite pattern - engaging in(un)ethical behavior increases the likelihood of doing so later on. Three studies supportthe hypothesis that individuals' ethical mindset (i.e., outcome-based versus rule-based)moderates the impact of an initial (un)ethical act on the likelihood of behaving ethicallyin a subsequent occasion. More specifically, an outcome-based mindset facilitates moralbalancing and a rule-based mindset facilitates moral consistency.

Setting the rules of the game: The choice of electoral systems in advanced democracies

The origins of electoral systems have received scant attention in the literature. Looking at the history of electoral rules in the advanced world in the last century, this paper shows that the existing wide variation in electoral rules across nations can be traced to the strategic decisions that the current ruling parties, anticipating the coordinating consequences of different electoral regimes, make to maximize their representation according to the following conditions. On the one hand, as long as the electoral arena does not change substantially and the current electoral regime serves the ruling parties well, the latter have no incentives to modify the electoral regime. On the other hand, as soon as the electoral arena changes (due to the entry of new voters or a change in their preferences), the ruling parties will entertain changing the electoral system, depending on two main conditions: the emergence of new parties and the coordinating capacities of the old ruling parties. Accordingly, if the new parties are strong, the old parties shift from plurality/majority rules to proportional representation (PR) only if the latter are locked into a 'non-Duvergerian' equilibrium; i.e. if no old party enjoys a dominant position (the case of most small European states)--conversely, they do not if a Duvergerian equilibrium exists (the case of Great Britain). Similarly, whenever the new entrants are weak, a non-PR system is maintained, regardless of the structure of the old party system (the case of the USA). The paper discusses as well the role of trade and ethnic and religious heterogeneity in the adoption of PR rules.

On the efficiency and sensitivity of a pyramidal classification algorithm

In this paper we propose a Pyramidal Classification Algorithm,which together with an appropriate aggregation index producesan indexed pseudo-hierarchy (in the strict sense) withoutinversions nor crossings. The computer implementation of thealgorithm makes it possible to carry out some simulation testsby Monte Carlo methods in order to study the efficiency andsensitivity of the pyramidal methods of the Maximum, Minimumand UPGMA. The results shown in this paper may help to choosebetween the three classification methods proposed, in order toobtain the classification that best fits the original structureof the population, provided we have an a priori informationconcerning this structure.

Price regulation of plastic money: A critical assessment of Spanish rules

Recent decisions by the Spanish national competition authority (TDC) mandate paymentsystems to include only two costs when setting their domestic multilateral interchange fees(MIF): a fixed processing cost and a variable cost for the risk of fraud. This artificiallowering of MIFs will not lower consumer prices, because of uncompetitive retailing; but itwill however lead to higher cardholders fees and, likely, new prices for point of saleterminals, delaying the development of the immature Spanish card market. Also, to the extent that increased cardholders fees do not offset the fall in MIFs revenue, the task of issuing new cards will be underpaid relatively to the task of acquiring new merchants, causing an imbalance between the two sides of the networks. Moreover, the pricing scheme arising from the decisions will cause unbundling and underprovision of those services whose costs are excluded. Indeed, the payment guarantee and the free funding period will tend to be removed from the package of services currently provided, to be either provided by third parties, by issuers for a separate fee, or not provided at all, especially to smaller and medium-sized merchants. Transaction services will also suffer the consequences that the TDC precludes pricing them in variable terms.

Stochastic evolution of rules for playing normal form games

The evolution of boundedly rational rules for playing normal form games is studied within stationary environments ofstochastically changing games. Rules are viewed as algorithms prescribing strategies for the different normal formgames that arise. It is shown that many of the folk results of evolutionary game theory typically obtained witha fixed game and fixed strategies carry over to the present case. The results are also related to recent experimentson rules and games.

A data-dependent skeleton estimate and a scale-sensitive dimension for classification

The classical binary classification problem is investigatedwhen it is known in advance that the posterior probability function(or regression function) belongs to some class of functions. We introduceand analyze a method which effectively exploits this knowledge. The methodis based on minimizing the empirical risk over a carefully selected``skeleton'' of the class of regression functions. The skeleton is acovering of the class based on a data--dependent metric, especiallyfitted for classification. A new scale--sensitive dimension isintroduced which is more useful for the studied classification problemthan other, previously defined, dimension measures. This fact isdemonstrated by performance bounds for the skeleton estimate in termsof the new dimension.

Transformation rules form OntoProcED to OntoOKI

This file contains the transformtion rules in SWRL to translate formal specifications of two lower ontology levels (patterns and organization) to the upper level (implementation according to the OKI specification).

Period-Luminosity-Colour distribution and classification of Galactic oxygen-rich LPVs I. Luminosity calibrations

The absolute K magnitudes and kinematic parameters of about 350 oxygen-rich Long-Period Variable stars are calibrated, by means of an up-to-date maximum-likelihood method, using HIPPARCOS parallaxes and proper motions together with radial velocities and, as additional data, periods and V-K colour indices. Four groups, differing by their kinematics and mean magnitudes, are found. For each of them, we also obtain the distributions of magnitude, period and de-reddened colour of the base population, as well as de-biased period-luminosity-colour relations and their two-dimensional projections. The SRa semiregulars do not seem to constitute a separate class of LPVs. The SRb appear to belong to two populations of different ages. In a PL diagram, they constitute two evolutionary sequences towards the Mira stage. The Miras of the disk appear to pulsate on a lower-order mode. The slopes of their de-biased PL and PC relations are found to be very different from the ones of the Oxygen Miras of the LMC. This suggests that a significant number of so-called Miras of the LMC are misclassified. This also suggests that the Miras of the LMC do not constitute a homogeneous group, but include a significant proportion of metal-deficient stars, suggesting a relatively smooth star formation history. As a consequence, one may not trivially transpose the LMC period-luminosity relation from one galaxy to the other.

A methodology for the classification of convective structures using meteorological radar: Application to heavy rainfall events on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula

During the period 1996-2000, forty-three heavy rainfall events have been detected in the Internal Basins of Catalonia (Northeastern of Spain). Most of these events caused floods and serious damage. This high number leads to the need for a methodology to classify them, on the basis of their surface rainfall distribution, their internal organization and their physical features. The aim of this paper is to show a methodology to analyze systematically the convective structures responsible of those heavy rainfall events on the basis of the information supplied by the meteorological radar. The proposed methodology is as follows. Firstly, the rainfall intensity and the surface rainfall pattern are analyzed on the basis of the raingauge data. Secondly, the convective structures at the lowest level are identified and characterized by using a 2-D algorithm, and the convective cells are identified by using a 3-D procedure that looks for the reflectivity cores in every radar volume. Thirdly, the convective cells (3-D) are associated with the 2-D structures (convective rainfall areas). This methodology has been applied to the 43 heavy rainfall events using the meteorological radar located near Barcelona and the SAIH automatic raingauge network.

The European sugar regime new legislation and wto rules

[cat] El 20 de febrer de 2006 es va aprovar el Reglament núm. 318/2006 del Consell que reforma l'Organització Comuna de Mercats del sucre. L'article analitza els canvis introduïts en el nou règim europeu del sucre i valora la seva adequació a les normes i demandes internacionals de liberalització del comerç agrícola. Es conclou que la reforma ha estat el mínim necessari per fer front als reptes internacionals: la recent resolució de l'Òrgan de Solució de Diferències de l'Organització Mundial del Comerç i les demandes de liberalització plantejades en el marc de la Ronda de Doha.

The European sugar regime new legislation and wto rules

[cat] El 20 de febrer de 2006 es va aprovar el Reglament núm. 318/2006 del Consell que reforma l'Organització Comuna de Mercats del sucre. L'article analitza els canvis introduïts en el nou règim europeu del sucre i valora la seva adequació a les normes i demandes internacionals de liberalització del comerç agrícola. Es conclou que la reforma ha estat el mínim necessari per fer front als reptes internacionals: la recent resolució de l'Òrgan de Solució de Diferències de l'Organització Mundial del Comerç i les demandes de liberalització plantejades en el marc de la Ronda de Doha.

Surface collective oscillations of metal clusters and spheres: Random-phase-approximation sum-rules approach

Using the once and thrice energy-weighted moments of the random-phase-approximation strength function, we have derived compact expressions for the average energy of surface collective oscillations of clusters and spheres of metal atoms. The L=0 volume mode has also been studied. We have carried out quantal and semiclassical calculations for Na and Ag systems in the spherical-jellium approximation. We present a rather thorough discussion of surface diffuseness and quantal size effects on the resonance energies.

Sum rules and short-range correlations in nuclear matter at finite temperature

The nucleon spectral function in nuclear matter fulfills an energy weighted sum rule. Comparing two different realistic potentials, these sum rules are studied for Greens functions that are derived self-consistently within the T matrix approximation at finite temperature.