Efficient interval scoring rules
Contribuinte(s) |
Universitat Pompeu Fabra. Departament d'Economia i Empresa |
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Data(s) |
02/11/2009
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Resumo |
Scoring rules that elicit an entire belief distribution through the elicitation of point beliefsare time-consuming and demand considerable cognitive e¤ort. Moreover, the results are validonly when agents are risk-neutral or when one uses probabilistic rules. We investigate a classof rules in which the agent has to choose an interval and is rewarded (deterministically) onthe basis of the chosen interval and the realization of the random variable. We formulatean e¢ ciency criterion for such rules and present a speci.c interval scoring rule. For single-peaked beliefs, our rule gives information about both the location and the dispersion of thebelief distribution. These results hold for all concave utility functions. |
Identificador | |
Idioma(s) |
eng |
Direitos |
L'accés als continguts d'aquest document queda condicionat a l'acceptació de les condicions d'ús establertes per la següent llicència Creative Commons info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/">http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/</a> |
Palavras-Chave | #Microeconomics #belief elicitation #scoring rules #subjective probabilities |
Tipo |
info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper |