Evaluation of dynamic pass-through of carbon prices into electricity prices – a cointegrated VECM analysis

This paper addresses the impact of the CO2 opportunity cost on the wholesale electricity price in the context of the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL), namely on the Portuguese system, for the period corresponding to the Phase II of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). In the econometric analysis a vector error correction model (VECM) is specified to estimate both long–run equilibrium relations and short–run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The model is estimated using daily spot market prices and the four commodities prices are jointly modelled as endogenous variables. Moreover, a set of exogenous variables is incorporated in order to account for the electricity demand conditions (temperature) and the electricity generation mix (quantity of electricity traded according the technology used). The outcomes for the Portuguese electricity system suggest that the dynamic pass–through of carbon prices into electricity prices is strongly significant and a long–run elasticity was estimated (equilibrium relation) that is aligned with studies that have been conducted for other markets.

Bertrand model under incomplete information

We consider a Bertrand duopoly model with unknown costs. The firms' aim is to choose the price of its product according to the well-known concept of Bayesian Nash equilibrium. The chooses are made simultaneously by both firms. In this paper, we suppose that each firm has two different technologies, and uses one of them according to a certain probability distribution. The use of either one or the other technology affects the unitary production cost. We show that this game has exactly one Bayesian Nash equilibrium. We analyse the advantages, for firms and for consumers, of using the technology with highest production cost versus the one with cheapest production cost. We prove that the expected profit of each firm increases with the variance of its production costs. We also show that the expected price of each good increases with both expected production costs, being the effect of the expected production costs of the rival dominated by the effect of the own expected production costs.

Bertrand oligopoly when rivals' costs are unknown

We study a Bertrand oligopoly model with incomplete information about rivals' costs, where the uncertainty is given by a uniform distribution. We compute the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium of this game, the ex-ante expected profit and the ex-post profit of each firm. We see that, even though only one firm produces in equilibrium, all firms have a positive ex-ante expected profit.

Cournot competition between a non-profit firm and a for-profit firm with uncertainty

In this paper, we consider a Cournot competition between a nonprofit firm and a for-profit firm in a homogeneous goods market, with uncertain demand. Given an asymmetric tax schedule, we compute explicitly the Bayesian-Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the tax rate and the degree of altruistic preference on market equilibrium outcomes.

Bertrand and Cournot oligopolies when rivals' costs are unknown

We study Bertrand and Cournot oligopoly models with incomplete information about rivals’ costs, where the uncertainty is given by a uniform distribution. We compute the Bayesian- Nash equilibrium of both games, the ex-ante expected profits and the ex-post profits of each firm. We see that, in the price competition, even though only one firm produces in equilibrium, all firms have a positive ex-ante expected profit.

Two-production-period in a duopoly with nonprofit and for-profit firms

We investigate endogenous roles in a competition between a nonprofit firm and a for-profit firm in a homogeneous goods market, by allowing two production periods. We find that the Cournot-type equilibrium and one Stackelberg-type equilibrium where the nonprofit firm becomes the follower exist; however, another tackelberg-type equilibrium where the nonprofit firm becomes the leader does not exist.

Uncertainty in a mixed duopoly with quadratic costs

In this paper, we consider a mixed market with uncertain demand, involving one private firm and one public firm with quadratic costs. The model is a two-stage game in which players choose to make their output decisions either in stage 1 or stage 2. We assume that the demand is unknown until the end of the first stage. We compute the output levels at equilibrium in each possible role. We also determine ex-ante and ex-post firms’ payoff functions.

Burnout e engagement nos médicos dos Hospitais do grande Porto

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Gestão das Organizações, Ramo de Gestão de Empresas Orientada por: Prof. Doutor Eduardo Manuel Lopes de Sá e Silva Coorientada por: Mestre Adalmiro Álvaro Malheiro de Castro Andrade Pereira Esta dissertação inclui as críticas e sugestões feitas pelo júri.

Quantificação de polifosfatos no bacalhau. Validação de um método de análise

O bacalhau (Gadus morhua) faz parte da dieta alimentar dos portugueses há vários séculos, sendo atualmente, um dos maiores consumidores deste peixe a nível mundial. Após o processo de salga, esta espécie possui características únicas como a consistência, cheiro, paladar e cor amarela. É precisamente devido à coloração do peixe que alguns produtores da Islândia, Noruega e Dinamarca requisitaram às autoridades da União Europeia (UE) a aprovação da utilização de polifosfatos no processo de salga húmida do bacalhau. Os polifosfatos são aditivos alimentares bastante usados no processamento do pescado pois previnem a oxidação dos lípidos e proteínas do músculo do bacalhau, evitando assim a indesejada mudança de cor do peixe. Apesar dos esforços da Associação dos Industriais do Bacalhau (AIB) e do governo português para a rejeição da proposta nórdica, tal não se verificou. Deste modo, no início do próximo ano já será possível a venda na UE de bacalhau com fosfatos. A quantificação do teor de fosfatos no bacalhau é geralmente efetuada por Espetrofotometria de absorção molecular no ultravioleta-visível (UV-Visível). Esta quantificação é baseada no método de determinação do fósforo total, através da hidrólise dos fosfatos a ortofosfatos com posterior medição da cor amarela, gerada pela reação destes com uma solução de molibdato-vanadato. O objetivo desta dissertação foi a validação de um método de análise para a quantificação dos polifosfatos no bacalhau. O método validado foi o descrito na norma NP 4495 para produtos de pesca e aquicultura. O desenvolvimento deste trabalho foi realizado em laboratório acreditado para águas e produtos alimentares (Equilibrium - Laboratório de Controlo de Qualidade e de Processos Lda, L0312). Foi ainda determinada a influência do teor de cloreto de sódio na quantificação dos polifosfatos e o teor de humidade, uma vez que este pode afetar o produto durante a sua comercialização. No processo de validação do método foram estudados diversos parâmetros, tais como a seletividade, linearidade, sensibilidade, limite de quantificação e precisão. Pela análise dos resultados obtidos conclui-se que o método para determinação de fosfatos no bacalhau se encontra validado, uma vez que satisfaz todas as especificações determinadas para cada parâmetro de validação avaliado.

Soil attributes dynamics evaluation after prescribed burning practice in northwestern Portugal forest

The Portuguese northern forests are often and severely affected by wildfires during the summer season. These occurrences affect significant and rudely all ecosystems, namely soil, fauna and flora. Preventive actions such as prescribed burnings and clear-cut logging are frequently used and have showed a significant reduction of the natural wildfires occurrences. In Portugal, and due to some technical and operational conditions, prescribed burnings in forests are the most common preventive action used to reduce the existing fuel hazard. The overall impacts of this preventive action on Portuguese ecosystems are complex and not fully understood. This work reports to the study of a prescribed burning impact in soil chemical properties, namely pH, humidity and organic matter, by monitoring the soil self-recovery capacity. The experiments were carried out in soil cover over a natural site of Andaluzitic schist, in Gramelas, Caminha, Portugal, who was able to maintain itself intact from prescribed burnings from four years. The composed soil samples were collected from five plots at three different layers (0-3cm, 3-6cm and 6-18cm) 1 day before prescribed fire and after the prescribed fire. The results have shown that the dynamic equilibrium in soil was affected significantly.

Mathematical model for HIV dynamics in HIV-specific helper cells

In this paper we study a delay mathematical model for the dynamics of HIV in HIV-specific CD4 + T helper cells. We modify the model presented by Roy and Wodarz in 2012, where the HIV dynamics is studied, considering a single CD4 + T cell population. Non-specific helper cells are included as alternative target cell population, to account for macrophages and dendritic cells. In this paper, we include two types of delay: (1) a latent period between the time target cells are contacted by the virus particles and the time the virions enter the cells and; (2) virus production period for new virions to be produced within and released from the infected cells. We compute the reproduction number of the model, R0, and the local stability of the disease free equilibrium and of the endemic equilibrium. We find that for values of R0<1, the model approaches asymptotically the disease free equilibrium. For values of R0>1, the model approximates asymptotically the endemic equilibrium. We observe numerically the phenomenon of backward bifurcation for values of R0⪅1. This statement will be proved in future work. We also vary the values of the latent period and the production period of infected cells and free virus. We conclude that increasing these values translates in a decrease of the reproduction number. Thus, a good strategy to control the HIV virus should focus on drugs to prolong the latent period and/or slow down the virus production. These results suggest that the model is mathematically and epidemiologically well-posed.

New findings on the dynamics of HIV and TB coinfection models

In this paper we study a model for HIV and TB coinfection. We consider the integer order and the fractional order versions of the model. Let α∈[0.78,1.0] be the order of the fractional derivative, then the integer order model is obtained for α=1.0. The model includes vertical transmission for HIV and treatment for both diseases. We compute the reproduction number of the integer order model and HIV and TB submodels, and the stability of the disease free equilibrium. We sketch the bifurcation diagrams of the integer order model, for variation of the average number of sexual partners per person and per unit time, and the tuberculosis transmission rate. We analyze numerical results of the fractional order model for different values of α, including α=1. The results show distinct types of transients, for variation of α. Moreover, we speculate, from observation of the numerical results, that the order of the fractional derivative may behave as a bifurcation parameter for the model. We conclude that the dynamics of the integer and the fractional order versions of the model are very rich and that together these versions may provide a better understanding of the dynamics of HIV and TB coinfection.

A coinfection model for HIV and HCV

We study a mathematical model for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatites C virus (HCV) coinfection. The model predicts four distinct equilibria: the disease free, the HIV endemic, the HCV endemic, and the full endemic equilibria. The local and global stability of the disease free equilibrium was calculated for the full model and the HIV and HCV submodels. We present numerical simulations of the full model where the distinct equilibria can be observed. We show simulations of the qualitative changes of the dynamical behavior of the full model for variation of relevant parameters. From the results of the model, we infer possible measures that could be implemented in order to reduce the number of infected individuals.

Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Processos de construção e dimensionamento de pontes atirantadas

Na presente dissertação desenvolve-se o tema das pontes atirantadas. Apresentam-se várias formas de concepção estrutural, identificando os diversos elementos estruturais e as suas possíveis combinações. São também apresentadas as vantagens, desvantagens e aplicação de cada elemento estrutural na globalidade da estrutura. Os métodos construtivos foram também abordados, apresentando o faseamento construtivo, vantagens, desvantagens e condicionantes de cada processo para pilares, mastros e tabuleiros. Foi feito um estudo das várias acções regulamentares relevantes, para este tipo de estrutura, explicando para cada uma a sua metodologia de cálculo e a sua aplicação em cada elemento estrutural. A sua aplicação depende da estrutura em causa. Utilizando como caso de estudo uma ponte idealizada pelo Professor António Adão da Fonseca, que faz a ligação entre as cidades do Porto e Vila Nova de Gaia, foi feito um pré-dimensionamento de cada elemento estrutural, assim como o cálculo do pré-tensionamento dos tirantes. Em seguida foram elaboradas análises estáticas e dinâmicas através de um modelo numérico, considerando algumas das acções regulamentares estudadas anteriormente. Das análises foram extraídos valores de deslocamentos e esforços em cada elemento estrutural. Estes deslocamentos e esforços foram comparados entre várias combinações de acções e alternâncias de sobrecargas, procedendo-se no final a uma discussão dos resultados.