Diagnostic errors and repetitive sequential classifications in on-line process control by attributes

The procedure of on-line process control by attributes, known as Taguchi`s on-line process control, consists of inspecting the mth item (a single item) at every m produced items and deciding, at each inspection, whether the fraction of conforming items was reduced or not. If the inspected item is nonconforming, the production is stopped for adjustment. As the inspection system can be subject to diagnosis errors, one develops a probabilistic model that classifies repeatedly the examined item until a conforming or b non-conforming classification is observed. The first event that occurs (a conforming classifications or b non-conforming classifications) determines the final classification of the examined item. Proprieties of an ergodic Markov chain were used to get the expression of average cost of the system of control, which can be optimized by three parameters: the sampling interval of the inspections (m); the number of repeated conforming classifications (a); and the number of repeated non-conforming classifications (b). The optimum design is compared with two alternative approaches: the first one consists of a simple preventive policy. The production system is adjusted at every n produced items (no inspection is performed). The second classifies the examined item repeatedly r (fixed) times and considers it conforming if most classification results are conforming. Results indicate that the current proposal performs better than the procedure that fixes the number of repeated classifications and classifies the examined item as conforming if most classifications were conforming. On the other hand, the preventive policy can be averagely the most economical alternative rather than those ones that require inspection depending on the degree of errors and costs. A numerical example illustrates the proposed procedure. (C) 2009 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

Association between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern

The purpose of the present study was to assess the association between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern. The sample comprised eighty-six cephalograms obtained during the orthodontic pretreatment phase and analyzed using the Radiocef program to identify the craniofacial landmarks and perform orthodontic measurements. The variables utilized were overbite, the Jarabak percentage and the Vert index, as well as classifications resulting from the interpretation of these measurements. In all the statistical tests, a significance level of 5% was considered. Measurement reliability was checked by calculating method error. Weighted Kappa analysis showed that agreement between the facial types defined by the Vert index and the direction of growth trend established by the Jarabak percentage was not satisfactory. Owing to this lack of equivalency, a potential association between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern was evaluated using the chi-square test, considering the two methods separately. No relationship of dependence between overbite and craniofacial growth pattern was revealed by the results obtained. Therefore, it can be concluded that the classification of facial growth pattern will not be the same when considering the Jarabak and the Ricketts anayses, and that increased overbite cannot be associated with a braquifacial growth pattern, nor can openbite be associated with a dolichofacial growth pattern.

Clinico-pathological discrepancies in the diagnoses of solid malignancies

Autopsy is a valuable tool in evaluating diagnostic accuracy. Solid malignancies may have a protracted presentation, and diagnosis frequently requires imaging and deep-sited biopsies; clinical and postmortem diagnosis discrepancies may occur in a high rate in these diseases. Here, we analyzed the occurrence of clinico-pathological discrepancies in the diagnoses of solid malignancies in a Brazilian academic hospital. We reviewed charts and autopsy reports of the patients that died from 2001 to 2003 with at least one solid neoplasm. Patients were classified in concordant and discordant cases regarding cancer diagnosis. Discordant cases were categorized in undiagnosed cases (no suspicion of cancer) and in misdiagnosed cases (clinical suspicion of cancer but incompletely diagnosed). Among the 264 patients with a single non-incidental solid neoplasm, the clinico-pathological discrepancy rate was 37.1%. Liver (22.5%), lung (19.4%), and pancreatic cancer (15.3%) were the most frequent malignancies in the discordant group. Misdiagnosis category comprised 68% of the discordant cases, i.e., there was no correct knowledge about the tumor primary site and/or the histological type during life. Our data show that a high rate of discrepancies occurs in solid malignancies. Autopsies may provide the basis for a better understanding of diagnostic deficiencies in different circumstances. (C) 2008 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Influence diagnostics for linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors

We introduce in this paper the class of linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors. The score functions and the Fisher information matrices are derived for the parameters of interest and an iterative process is proposed for the parameter estimation. Some robustness aspects of the maximum likelihood estimates are discussed. The normal curvatures of local influence are also derived for some usual perturbation schemes whereas diagnostic graphics to assess the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates are proposed. The methodology is applied to analyse the daily log excess return on the Microsoft whose empirical distributions appear to have AR(1) and heavy-tailed errors. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Diagnostic and clinical factors associated with pulpal and periapical pain

A retrospective survey was designed to identify diagnostic subgroups and clinical factors associated with odontogenic pain and discomfort in dental urgency patients. A consecutive sample of 1,765 patients seeking treatment for dental pain at the Urgency Service of the Dental School of the Federal University of Goiás, Brazil, was selected. Inclusion criteria were pulpal or periapical pain that occurred before dental treatment (minimum 6 months after the last dental appointment), and the exclusion criteria were teeth with odontogenic developmental anomalies and missing information or incomplete records. Clinical and radiographic examinations were performed to assess clinical presentation of pain complaints including origin, duration, frequency and location of pain, palpation, percussion and vitality tests, radiographic features, endodontic diagnosis and characteristics of teeth. Chi-square test and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze association between pulpal and periapical pain and independent variables. The most frequent endodontic diagnosis of pulpal pain were symptomatic pulpitis (28.3%) and hyperreactive pulpalgia (14.4%), and the most frequent periapical pain was symptomatic apical periodontitis of infectious origin (26.4%). Regression analysis revealed that closed pulp chamber and caries were highly associated with pulpal pain and, conversely, open pulp chamber was associated with periapical pain (p<0.001). Endodontic diagnosis and local factors associated with pulpal and periapical pain suggest that the important clinical factor of pulpal pain was closed pulp chamber and caries, and of periapical pain was open pulp chamber.

Diagnostic agreement between panoramic radiographs and color doppler images of carotid atheroma

The aim of this study was to investigate the agreement between diagnoses of calcified atheroma seen on panoramic radiographs and color Doppler images. Our interest stems from the fact that panoramic images can show the presence of atheroma regardless of the level of obstruction detected by color Doppler images. Panoramic and color Doppler images of 16 patients obtained from the archives of the Health Department of the city of Valença, RJ, Brazil, were analyzed in this study. Both sides of each patient were observed on the images, with a total of 32 analyzed cervical regions. The level of agreement between diagnoses was analyzed using the Kappa statistics. There was a high level of agreement, with a Kappa value of 0.78. In conclusion, panoramic radiographs can help detecting calcifications in the cervical region of patients susceptible to vascular diseases predisposing to myocardial infarction and cerebrovascular accidents. If properly trained and informed, dentists can refer their patients to a physician for a cardiovascular evaluation in order to receive proper and timely medical treatment.

Wing diagnostic characters for Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex nigripalpus (Diptera, Culicidae)

Wing diagnostic characters for Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex nigripalpus (Diptera, Culicidae). Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex nigripalpus are mosquitoes of public health interest, which can occur sympatrically in urban and semi-urban localities. Morphological identification of these species may be difficult when specimens are not perfectly preserved. In order to suggest an alternative taxonomical diagnosis, wings of these species were comparatively characterized using geometric morphometrics. Both species could be distinguished by wing shape with accuracy rates ranging from 85-100%. Present results indicate that one can identify these species relying only on wing characters when traditional taxonomical characters are not visible.

Esophageal Ulcer in Brazilian Patients with HIV: Prevalence and Comparative Analysis Among Diagnostic Methods

Esophageal ulcer (EU) represents an important comorbidity in AIDS. We evaluated the prevalence of EU, the accuracy of the endoscopic and histologic methods used to investigate viral EU in HIV-positive Brazilian patients and the numerical relevance of tissue sampling. A total of 399 HIV-positive patients underwent upper gastrointestinal (UGI) endoscopy. HIV-positive patients with EU determined by UGI endoscopy followed by biopsies were analyzed by the hematoxylin-eosin (HE) and immunohistochemical (IH) methods. EU was detected in 41 patients (mean age, 39.2 years; 23 males), with a prevalence of 10.27%. The median CD4 count was 49 cells/mm(3) (range, 1-361 cells/mm(3)) and the viral load was 58,869 copies per milliliter (range, 50-77,3290 copies per milliliter). UGI endoscopy detected 29 of 41 EU suggestive of cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and 7 of 41 indicating herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection. HE histology confirmed 4 of 29 ulcers induced by CMV, 2 of 7 induced by HSV, and 1 of 7 induced by HSV plus CMV. IH for CMV and HSV confirmed the HE findings and detected one additional CMV-induced case. UGI endoscopy showed 100% sensitivity and 15% specificity for the diagnosis of EU due to CMV or HSV compared to HE and IH. HE proved to be an adequate method for etiologic evaluation, with 87% sensitivity and 100% specificity compared to IH. The number of samples did not influence the etiologic evaluation. The data support the importance of IH as a complementary method for HE in the diagnosis of EU of viral etiology.

Cost effectiveness of OptiMal (R) rapid diagnostic test for malaria in remote areas of the Amazon Region, Brazil

Background: In areas with limited structure in place for microscopy diagnosis, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) have been demonstrated to be effective. Method: The cost-effectiveness of the Optimal (R) and thick smear microscopy was estimated and compared. Data were collected on remote areas of 12 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon. Data sources included the National Malaria Control Programme of the Ministry of Health, the National Healthcare System reimbursement table, hospitalization records, primary data collected from the municipalities, and scientific literature. The perspective was that of the Brazilian public health system, the analytical horizon was from the start of fever until the diagnostic results provided to patient and the temporal reference was that of year 2006. The results were expressed in costs per adequately diagnosed cases in 2006 U. S. dollars. Sensitivity analysis was performed considering key model parameters. Results: In the case base scenario, considering 92% and 95% sensitivity for thick smear microscopy to Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax, respectively, and 100% specificity for both species, thick smear microscopy is more costly and more effective, with an incremental cost estimated at US$ 549.9 per adequately diagnosed case. In sensitivity analysis, when sensitivity and specificity of microscopy for P. vivax were 0.90 and 0.98, respectively, and when its sensitivity for P. falciparum was 0.83, the RDT was more cost-effective than microscopy. Conclusion: Microscopy is more cost-effective than OptiMal (R) in these remote areas if high accuracy of microscopy is maintained in the field. Decision regarding use of rapid tests for diagnosis of malaria in these areas depends on current microscopy accuracy in the field.

A NEW DIAGNOSTIC OF THE RADIAL DENSITY STRUCTURE OF Be DISKS

We analyze the intrinsic polarization of two classical Be stars in the process of losing their circumstellar disks via a Be to normal B star transition originally reported by Wisniewski et al. During each of five polarimetric outbursts which interrupt these disk-loss events, we find that the ratio of the polarization across the Balmer jump (BJ+/BJ-) versus the V-band polarization traces a distinct loop structure as a function of time. Since the polarization change across the Balmer jump is a tracer of the innermost disk density whereas the V-band polarization is a tracer of the total scattering mass of the disk, we suggest that such correlated loop structures in Balmer jump-V-band polarization diagrams (BJV diagrams) provide a unique diagnostic of the radial distribution of mass within Be disks. We use the three-dimensional Monte Carlo radiation transfer code HDUST to reproduce the observed clockwise loops simply by turning ""on/off"" the mass decretion from the disk. We speculate that counterclockwise loop structures we observe in BJV diagrams might be caused by the mass decretion rate changing between subsequent ""on/off"" sequences. Applying this new diagnostic to a larger sample of Be disk systems will provide insight into the time-dependent nature of each system's stellar decretion rate.

Knowledge acquisition by networks of interacting agents in the presence of observation errors

In this work we investigate knowledge acquisition as performed by multiple agents interacting as they infer, under the presence of observation errors, respective models of a complex system. We focus the specific case in which, at each time step, each agent takes into account its current observation as well as the average of the models of its neighbors. The agents are connected by a network of interaction of Erdos-Renyi or Barabasi-Albert type. First, we investigate situations in which one of the agents has a different probability of observation error (higher or lower). It is shown that the influence of this special agent over the quality of the models inferred by the rest of the network can be substantial, varying linearly with the respective degree of the agent with different estimation error. In case the degree of this agent is taken as a respective fitness parameter, the effect of the different estimation error is even more pronounced, becoming superlinear. To complement our analysis, we provide the analytical solution of the overall performance of the system. We also investigate the knowledge acquisition dynamic when the agents are grouped into communities. We verify that the inclusion of edges between agents (within a community) having higher probability of observation error promotes the loss of quality in the estimation of the agents in the other communities.

Optical fiber laser induced fluorescence spectroscopy as a citrus canker diagnostic

Citrus canker is a serious disease caused by Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri bacteria, which infects citrus plants (Citrus spp.) leading to large economic losses in citrus production worldwide. In this work, laser induced fluorescence spectroscopy (LIF) was investigated as a diagnostic technique for citrus canker disease in citrus trees at an orchard using a portable optical fiber based spectrometer. For comparison we have applied LIF to leaves contaminated with citrus canker, citrus scab, citrus variegates chlorosis, and Huanglongbing (HLB, Greening). In order to reduce the noise in the data, we collected spectra from ten leaves with visual symptoms of diseases and from five healthy leaves per plant. This procedure is carried out in order to minimize the environmental effect on the spectrum (water and nutrient supply) of each plant. Our results show that this method presents a high sensitivity (similar to 90%), however it does present a low specificity (similar to 70%) for citrus canker diagnostic. We believe that such poor performance is due to the fact that the optical fiber collects light from only a small part of the leaf. Such results may be improved using the fluorescence imaging technique on the whole leaf. (C) 2010 Optical Society of America

The impact of measurement errors in the identification of regulatory networks

Background: There are several studies in the literature depicting measurement error in gene expression data and also, several others about regulatory network models. However, only a little fraction describes a combination of measurement error in mathematical regulatory networks and shows how to identify these networks under different rates of noise. Results: This article investigates the effects of measurement error on the estimation of the parameters in regulatory networks. Simulation studies indicate that, in both time series (dependent) and non-time series (independent) data, the measurement error strongly affects the estimated parameters of the regulatory network models, biasing them as predicted by the theory. Moreover, when testing the parameters of the regulatory network models, p-values computed by ignoring the measurement error are not reliable, since the rate of false positives are not controlled under the null hypothesis. In order to overcome these problems, we present an improved version of the Ordinary Least Square estimator in independent (regression models) and dependent (autoregressive models) data when the variables are subject to noises. Moreover, measurement error estimation procedures for microarrays are also described. Simulation results also show that both corrected methods perform better than the standard ones (i.e., ignoring measurement error). The proposed methodologies are illustrated using microarray data from lung cancer patients and mouse liver time series data. Conclusions: Measurement error dangerously affects the identification of regulatory network models, thus, they must be reduced or taken into account in order to avoid erroneous conclusions. This could be one of the reasons for high biological false positive rates identified in actual regulatory network models.

Programmable diagnostic devices made from paper and tape

This paper describes three-dimensional microfluidic paper-based analytical devices (3-D mu PADs) that can be programmed (postfabrication) by the user to generate multiple patterns of flow through them. These devices are programmed by pressing single-use 'on' buttons, using a stylus or a ballpoint pen. Pressing a button closes a small space (gap) between two vertically aligned microfluidic channels, and allows fluids to wick from one channel to the other. These devices are simple to fabricate, and are made entirely out of paper and double-sided adhesive tape. Programmable devices expand the capabilities of mu PADs and provide a simple method for controlling the movement of fluids in paper-based channels. They are the conceptual equivalent of field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs) widely used in electronics.