Expectation Propagation with Factorizing Distributions: A Gaussian Approximation and Performance Results for Simple Models

We discuss the expectation propagation (EP) algorithm for approximate Bayesian inference using a factorizing posterior approximation. For neural network models, we use a central limit theorem argument to make EP tractable when the number of parameters is large. For two types of models, we show that EP can achieve optimal generalization performance when data are drawn from a simple distribution.

The Neotropical genus Stibadocerina Alexander and its phylogenetic relationship to other Stibadocerinae genera: further evidence of an ancestral trans-Pacific biota (Diptera: Cylindrotomidae)

Stibadocerina Alexander, a monotypic genus, includes the only known Neotropical species of the family Cylindrotomidae, S. chilensis Alexander, 1929, from South Central Chile (ca. 36 degrees 50`S-42 degrees 17`S). In this paper, Stibadocerina chilensis is redescribed and illustrated in detail. A study of wing-vein homology in the subfamily Stibadocerinae is provided, to identify the components of the reduced radial sector in Stibadocerina and related taxa. The proposed hypotheses of wing-vein homology are tested, and the systematic position of Stibadocerina is assessed through a cladistic analysis of 13 characters of the male imago, scored for exemplar species of the four genera included in the Stibadocerinae. A single most parsimonious tree supports the monophyly of the Stibadocerinae and the following relationships among its included genera: Stibadocerodes [Stibadocera (Stibadocerella + Stibadocerina)]. The subfamily includes one example of a vicariant distribution with a sister-group relationship between South Central Chilean and East Asian taxa, and supports a biogeographical interpretation of an ancestral trans-Pacific biota.

Thoracic aorta calcification detected by electron beam tomography predicts all-cause mortality

Background: The presence of coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an independent marker of increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality. However, the predictive value of thoracic aorta calcification (TAC), which can be additionally identified without further scanning during assessment of CAC, is unknown. Methods: We followed a cohort of 8401 asymptomatic individuals (mean age: 53 +/- 10 years, 69% men) undergoing cardiac risk factor evaluation and TAC and CAC testing with electron beam computed tomography. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict all-cause mortality based on the presence of TAC. Results: During a median follow-up period of 5 years, 124 (1.5%) deaths were observed. Overall survival was 96.9% and 98.9% for those with and without detectable TAC, respectively (p < 0.0001). Compared to those with no TAC, the hazard ratio for mortality in the presence of TAC was 3.25 (95% CI: 2.28-4.65, p < 0.0001) in unadjusted analysis. After adjusting for age, gender, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, smoking and family history of premature coronary artery disease, and presence of CAC the relationship remained robust (HR 1.61, 95% CI: 1.10-2.27, p = 0.015). Likelihood ratio chi(2) statistics demonstrated that the addition of TAC contributed significantly in predicting mortality to traditional risk factors alone (chi(2) = 13.62, p = 0.002) as well as risk factors + CAC (chi(2) = 5.84, p = 0.02) models. Conclusion: In conclusion, the presence of TAC was associated with all-cause mortality in our study; this relationship was independent of conventional CVD risk factors as well as the presence of CAC. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A synergistic relationship of elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels and systolic blood pressure with coronary artery calcification

We sought to evaluate this ""response-to-injury"" hypothesis of atherosclerosis by studying the interaction between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) in predicting the presence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in asymptomatic men. We Studied 526 men (46 +/- 7 years of age) referred for electron-beam tomography (EBT) exam. The prevalence of CAC was determined across LDL-C tertiles (low: <115 mg/dl; middle: 115-139 mg/dl high: >= 140 mg/dl) within tertiles of SBP (low: <121 mmHg; middle: 121-130 mmHg; high: >= 131 mmHg). CAC was found in 220 (42%) men. There was no linear trend in the presence of CAC across LDL-C tertiles in the low (p = 0.6 for trend) and middle (p = 0.3 for trend) SBP tertile groups, respectively. In contrast, there was a significant trend for increasing CAC with increasing LDL-C (1st: 44%; 2nd: 49%; 3rd: 83%; p < 0.0001 for trend) in the high SBP tertile group. In multivariate logistic analyses (adjusting for age, smoking, triglyceride levels, HDL-cholesterol levels, body mass index, and fasting glucose levels), the odds ratio for any CAC associated with increasing LDL-C was significantly higher in those with highest SBP levels, whereas no such relationship was observed among men with SBP in the lower two tertiles. An interaction term (LDL-C x SBP) incorporated in the multivariate analyses was statistically significant (p = 0.038). The finding of an interaction between SBP and LDL-C relation to CAC in asymptomatic men support the response-to-injury model of atherogenesis. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of immunosuppressants on hepatocyte cell mitosis during liver regeneration in growing animal models of partial hepatectomy

Objective. We sought to evaluate the effects of immunosuppressant drugs (corticosteroid, cyclosporine [CsA], and tacrolimus [Tac]) on liver regeneration in growing animals submitted to 70% hepatectomy. Materials and Methods. Newborn and weaning rats were submitted to 70% hepatectomy receiving separately methylprednisolone, CsA, or Tac. All animals were sacrificed 24 hours after the procedure. The remnant liver lobes were subjected to histomorphometric analyses with determination of hepatocyte mitotic index. Results., Administration of immunosuppressants did not change the mitotic index of the regenerating liver in newborn animals. In weaning rats, methylprednisolone reduced the mitotic index (P = .01) and Tac caused a greater increase in this rate (P = .001). CsA had no effect on mitotic index. The number of hepatocyte mitoses in newborn animal livers was greater than that in weaning animal livers (P = .001). Conclusion. In situations in which intense, fast processes of liver regeneration are crucial, the advantages of the use of Tac must be considered, such as in pediatric transplant patients.

Interstitial expression of angiotensin II and AT1 receptor are increased in patients with progressive glomerulopathies

In animal models, interstitial angiotensin II (ang II) and AT1 receptor (AT1R) are key mediators of renal inflammation and fibrosis in progressive chronic nephropathies. We hypothesized that these molecules were overexpressed in patients with progressive glomerulopathies. In this observational retrospective study, we described the expression of ang II and AT1R by immunohistochemistry in kidney biopsies of 7 patients with minimal change disease (MCD) and in 25 patients with progressive glomerulopathies (PGPs). Proteinuria, serum albumin, and serum creatinine were not statistically different between MCD and PGP patients. Total expression of ang II and AT1R was not statistically different between MCD (108.7 +/- 11.5 and 73.2 +/- 13.6 cells/mm(2), respectively) and PGN patients (100.7 +/- 9.0 and 157.7 +/- 13.8 cells/mm(2), respectively; p>0.05). Yet, interstitial expression of ang II and AT1R (91.6 +/- 16.0 and 45.6 +/- 5.4 cells/mm(2), respectively) was higher in patients with PGN than in those with MCD (22.0 +/- 4.1 and 17.9 +/- 2.9 cells/mm(2), respectively, p<0.05), as was the proportion of interstitial fibrosis (11.0 +/- 0.7% versus 6.1 +/- 1.2%, p<005). In patients with MCD, ang II and AT1R expressions predominate in the tubular compartment (52% and 36% of the positive cells, respectively). In those with PGP, the interstitial expression of ang II and AT1R predominates (58% and 45%, respectively). In conclusion, interstitial expression of ang II and AT1R is increased in patients with progressive glomerulopathies. The relationship of these results and interstitial fibrosis and disease progression in humans warrants further investigations.

Relationship between the appearance of tongue carcinoma on intraoral ultrasonography and neck metastasis

To evaluate the usefulness of intraoral ultrasonography (IOUS) as a tool for predicting neck metastasis. Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the tongue is aggressive and has a great propensity to metastasize to cervical lymph nodes. SCC of the oral cavity has a worse prognosis when associated with metastatic cervical nodes. Therefore, the metastatic potential of tongue carcinoma should be graded preoperatively to help determine the requirement for neck dissection. Nineteen patients (11 men, 8 women) between 36 and 79 years of age (mean age 60) with T1 to T4a TNM-stage tongue carcinomas were evaluated preoperatively with IOUS. Clinical and pathological TNM classifications were performed. The average tumor thicknesses measured using histological sections were significantly (p < 0.01) lower than those with IOUS (1.3 vs. 1.6 cm, respectively). A significant correlation was observed between the tumor thickness measured using ultrasonography and that measured using histological sections (pathology). Based on this greater accuracy, the cutoff point of tumor thickness based on IOUS evaluation for predicting neck metastasis was determined to be 1.8 cm. Some factors may influence neck metastasis. A knowledge of these would help to avoid unnecessary surgical intervention for N0 patients. The results of this study indicates that there is a significant correlation between neck metastasis and tumor thickness. Intraoral ultrasonography is useful tool for identifying tongue tumors and measuring their thickness, with the thickness measured by IOUS showing a very good correlation with histological measurements. Moreover, IOUS provides prognostic information prior to surgical treatment since tumor thickness can predict the chance of recognizing metastatic cervical nodes.

The association between air pollution and blood pressure in traffic controllers in Santo Andre, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: Urban air pollutants are associated with cardiovascular events. Traffic controllers are at high risk for pollution exposure during outdoor work shifts. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between air pollution and systemic blood pressure in traffic controllers during their work shifts. Methods: This cross-sectional study enrolled 19 male traffic controllers from Santo Andre city (Sao Paulo, Brazil) who were 30-60 years old and exposed to ambient air during outdoor work shifts. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure readings were measured every 15 min by an Ambulatory Arterial Blood Pressure Monitoring device. Hourly measurements (lags of 0-5 h) and the moving averages (2-5 h) of particulate matter (PM(10)), ozone (O(3)) ambient concentrations and the acquired daily minimum temperature and humidity means from the Sao Paulo State Environmental Agency were correlated with both systolic and diastolic blood pressures. Statistical methods included descriptive analysis and linear mixed effect models adjusted for temperature, humidity, work periods and time of day. Results: Interquartile increases of PM(10) (33 mu g/m(3)) and O(3) (49 mu g/m(3)) levels were associated with increases in all arterial pressure parameters, ranging from 1.06 to 2.53 mmHg. PM(10) concentration was associated with early effects (lag 0), mainly on systolic blood pressure. However, O(3) was weakly associated most consistently with diastolic blood pressure and with late cumulative effects. Conclusions: Santo Andre traffic controllers presented higher blood pressure readings while working their outdoor shifts during periods of exposure to ambient pollutant fluctuations. However, PM(10) and O(3) induced cardiovascular effects demonstrated different time courses and end-point behaviors and probably acted through different mechanisms. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relationship between induced sputum cytology and inflammatory status with lung structural and functional abnormalities in asbestosis

Background Asbestosis is associated with lung cellular and immunological abnormalities. Induced sputum cytology and local and systemic markers of inflammation may be helpful to characterize disease status and progression in these patients. Methods Thirty-nine ex-workers with asbestosis on high-resolution CT (HRCT) and 21 non-exposed controls were evaluated. Sputum cytology and IL-8 in serum and sputum were related to lung function impairment. Results Subjects with asbestosis had reduced sputum cellularity but higher macrophagel neutrophil ratio and % macrophage as compared with controls. Sputum and serum IL-8 were also higher in patients with asbestosis (P < 0.05). In addition, evidence of lung architectural distorption on HRCT was associated with increased levels of serum IL-8. Interestingly, absolute macrophage number was negatively correlated with total lung capacity (r = -0.40; P = 0.04) and serum IL-8 to lung diffiusing capacity (r = -0.45; P = 0.01). Conclusions Occupationally exposed subjects with asbestosis on HRCT have cytologic abnormalities in induced sputum and increased local and systemic pro-inflammatory status which are correlated to functional impairment.

The relationship between body mass index and the variation in plasma levels of triglycerides after short-term red wine consumption

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic beverages may have protective cardiovascular effects but are known to increase the plasma levels of triglycerides (TG). Both TG and the ratio of TO to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL-cholesterol) are associated with increased cardiovascular risk. OBJECTIVES: To determine the predictive factors for variations in plasma levels of TO and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio in patients after they had consumed red wine for 14 days. METHODS: Forty-two subjects (64% men, 46 +/- 9 years, baseline body mass index [BMI] 25.13 +/- 2.76 kg/m(2)) were given red wine (12% or 12.2% alc/vol, 250 mL/day with meals). Plasma concentration of lipids and glucose were measured before and after red wine consumption. Blood was collected after 12 hours of fast and alcohol abstention. RESULTS: Red wine increased plasma levels of TO from 105 +/- 42 mg/dL to 120 +/- 56 mg/dL (P = .001) and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio from 2.16 +/- 1.10 to 2.50 +/- 1.66 (P = .014). In a multivariate linear regression model that included age, baseline BMI, blood pressure, lipids, and glucose, only BMI was independently predictive of the variation in plasma TO after red wine (beta coefficient 0.592, P < .001). BMI also predicted the variation in TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio (beta coefficient 0.505, P = .001, adjusted model). When individuals were divided into three categories, according to their BMI, the average percentage variation in TG after red wine was -4%, 17%, and 33% in the lower (19.60-24.45 kg/m(2)), intermediate, and greater (26.30-30.44 kg/m(2)) tertiles, respectively (P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with higher BMI, although nonobese, might be at greater risk for elevation in plasma TO levels and the TG/HDL-cholesterol ratio after short-term red wine consumption. (C) 2011 National Lipid Association. All rights reserved.

Volume reduction of the corpus callosum and its relationship with deficits in interhemispheric transfer of information in recent-onset psychosis

The present study aimed to investigate the presence of corpus callosum (CC) volume deficits in a population-based recent-onset psychosis (ROP) sample, and whether CC volume relates to interhemispheric communication deficits. For this purpose, we used voxel-based morphometry comparisons of magnetic resonance imaging data between ROP (n = 122) and healthy control (n = 94) subjects. Subgroups (38 ROP and 39 controls) were investigated for correlations between CC volumes and performance on the Crossed Finger Localization Test (CFLT). Significant CC volume reductions in ROP subjects versus controls emerged after excluding substance misuse and non-right-handedness. CC reductions retained significance in the schizophrenia subgroup but not in affective psychoses subjects. There were significant positive correlations between CC volumes and CFLT scores in ROP subjects, specifically in subtasks involving interhemispheric communication. From these results, we can conclude that CC volume reductions are present in association with ROP. The relationship between such deficits and CFLT performance suggests that interhemispheric communication impairments are directly linked to CC abnormalities in ROP. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental models of sepsis and their clinical relevance

Sepsis remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality mainly because of sepsis-induced multiple organ dysfunction. In contrast to preclinical studies, most clinical trials of promising new treatment strategies for sepsis have failed to demonstrate efficacy. Although many reasons could account for this discrepancy, the misinterpretation of preclinical data obtained from experimental studies and especially the use of animal models that do not adequately mimic human sepsis may have been contributing factors. In this review, the potentials and limitations of various animal models of sepsis are discussed to clarify to which extent these findings are relevant to human sepsis. Such models include intravascular infusion of endotoxin or live bacteria, bacterial peritonitis, cecal ligation and perforation, soft tissue infection, pneumonia or meningitis models using different animal species including rats, mice, rabbits, dogs, pigs, sheep, and nonhuman primates. Despite several limitations, animal models remain essential in the development of all new therapies for sepsis and septic shock because they provide fundamental information about the pharmacokinetics, toxicity, and mechanism of drug action that cannot be replaced by other methods. New therapeutic agents should be studied in infection models, even after the initiation of the septic process. Furthermore, debility conditions need to be reproduced to avoid the exclusive use of healthy animals, which often do not represent the human septic patient.

Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Rehabilitation of executive dysfunction: A controlled trial of an attention and problem solving treatment group

In this study, the effectiveness of a group-based attention and problem solving (APS) treatment approach to executive impairments in patients with frontal lobe lesions was investigated. Thirty participants with lesions in the frontal lobes, 16 with left frontal (LF) and 14 with right frontal (RF) lesions, were allocated into three groups, each with 10 participants. The APS treatment was initially compared to two other control conditions, an information/education (IE) approach and treatment-as-usual or traditional rehabilitation (TR), with each of the control groups subsequently receiving the APS intervention in a crossover design. This design allowed for an evaluation of the treatment through assessment before and after treatment and on follow up, six months later. There was an improvement on some executive and functional measures after the implementation of the APS programme in the three groups. Size, and to a lesser extent laterality, of lesion affected baseline performance on measures of executive function, but there was no apparent relationship between size, laterality or site of lesion and level of benefit from the treatment intervention. The results were discussed in terms of models of executive functioning and the effectiveness of domain specific interventions in the rehabilitation of executive dysfunction.