Interference between propagating changes and its effect on system failure

Computer-based, socio-technical systems projects are frequently failures. In particular, computer-based information systems often fail to live up to their promise. Part of the problem lies in the uncertainty of the effect of combining the subsystems that comprise the complete system; i.e. the system's emergent behaviour cannot be predicted from a knowledge of the subsystems. This paper suggests uncertainty management is a fundamental unifying concept in analysis and design of complex systems and goes on to indicate that this is due to the co-evolutionary nature of the requirements and implementation of socio-technical systems. The paper shows a model of the propagation of a system change that indicates that the introduction of two or more changes over time can cause chaotic emergent behaviour.

Understanding and Managing the Late Time of Ratooning Effect on Cane Yield

Each year growers are faced with the decision of when to harvest individual blocks of sugarcane throughout the harvest season. This decision influences the yield of the current crop and can affect the yield in the following season. Growers must therefore decide which blocks to harvest early and which to harvest later in the harvest season. Usually, the latest harvested cane is the lowest yielding the following year (the �late harvest� effect). Block productivity data from Tully were used to determine the effects of harvest timing on cane yield of the current and subsequent crop. The results are tabulated to provide a ready reference to these time of harvest effects on the current and future crop in either a single year or over the full crop cycle for the Tully district.