6 resultados para volatility spillover

em Repositório Institucional da Universidade de Aveiro - Portugal


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Being of high relevance for many technological applications, the solubility of sour gases in solvents of low volatility is still poorly described and understood. Aiming at purifying natural gas streams, the present work contributes for a more detailed knowledge and better understanding of the solubility of sour gases in these fluids, in particularly on ionic liquids. A new apparatus, developed and validated specially for phase equilibria studies of this type of systems, allowed the study of the solvent basicity, molecular weight and polarity influence on the absorption of carbon dioxide and methane. The non ideality of carbon dioxide solutions in ionic liquids and other low volatile solvents, with which carbon dioxide is known to form electron donor-acceptor complexes, is discussed, allowing the development of a correlation able to describe the carbon dioxide solubility in low volatile solvents. Furthermore, the non ideality of solutions of light compounds, such as SO2, NH3 and H2S, in ionic liquids is also investigated and shown to present negative deviations to the ideality in the liquid phase, that can be predicted by the Flory-Huggins model. For last, the effect of the ionic liquid polarity, described through the Kamlet-Taft parameters, on the CO2/CH4 and H2S/CH4 selectivities is also evaluated and shown to stand as a viable tool for the selection of ionic liquids with enhanced selectivities.

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Os biocombustíveis têm estado na linha da frente das políticas energéticas mundiais visto que as suas vantagens conseguem colmatar as incertezas e resolver alguns dos problemas associados aos combustíveis fósseis. O biodiesel tem provado ser um combustível muito fiável, alternativo ao petrodiesel. É uma mistura de ésteres alquílicos produzidos a partir de óleos vegetais e gorduras animais através de uma reacção de transesterificação. Como combustível, o biodiesel é economicamente viável, socialmente responsável, tecnicamente compatível e ambientalmente amigável. O principal desafio associado ao seu desenvolvimento tem a ver com a escolha de matéria-prima para a sua produção. Nos países do terceiro mundo, óleos alimentares são mais importantes para alimentar pessoas do que fazer funcionar carros. Esta tese tem como objectivos produzir/processar biodiesel a partir de recursos endógenos de Timor-Leste e medir/prever as propriedades termodinâmicas do biodiesel, a partir das dos esteres alquílicos. A síntese do biodiesel a partir dos óleos de Aleurites moluccana, Jatropha curcas e borras de café foram aqui estudados. As propriedades termodinâmicas como densidade, viscosidade, tensão superficial, volatilidade e velocidade do som também foram medidas e estimadas usando modelos preditivos disponíveis na literatura, incluindo as equações de estado CPA e soft-SAFT. Timor-Leste é um país muito rico em recursos naturais, mas a maioria da população ainda vive na pobreza e na privação de acesso a serviços básicos e condições de vida decentes. A exploração de petróleo e gás no mar de Timor tem sido controlado pelo Fundo Petrolífero. O país ainda carece de electricidade e combustíveis que são cruciais para materializar as políticas de redução da pobreza. Como solução, o governo timorense criou recentemente o Plano Estratégico de Desenvolvimento a 20 anos cujas prioridades incluem trazer o desenvolvimento do petróleo do mar para a costa sul de Timor-Leste e desenvolver as energias renováveis. É neste último contexto que o biodiesel se insere. O seu desenvolvimento no país poderá ser uma solução para o fornecimento de electricidade, a criação de empregos e sobretudo o combate contra a pobreza e a privação. Para ser usado como combustível, no entanto, o biodiesel deve possuir propriedades termodinâmicas coerentes com as especificadas nas normas da ASTM D6751 (nos Estados Unidos) ou EN 14214 (na Europa) para garantir uma adequada ignição, atomização e combustão do biodiesel no motor.

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Sempre foi do interesse das instituições financeiras de crédito determinar o risco de incumprimento associado a uma empresa por forma a avaliar o seu perfil. No entanto, esta informação é útil a todos os stakeholders de uma empresa, já que também estes comprometem uma parte de si ao interagirem com esta. O aumento do número de insolvências nos últimos anos tem reafirmado a necessidade de ampliar e aprofundar a pesquisa sobre o stress financeiro. A identificação dos fatores que influenciam a determinação do preço dos ativos sempre foi do interesse de todos os stakeholders, por forma a antecipar a variação dos retornos e agir em sua conformidade. Nesta dissertação será estudada a influência do risco de incumprimento sobre os retornos de capital, usando como indicador do risco de incumprimento a probabilidade de incumprimento obtida segundo o modelo de opções de Merton (1974). Efetuou-se esta análise durante o período de Fevereiro de 2002 a Dezembro de 2011, utilizando dados de empresas Portuguesas, Espanholas e Gregas. Os resultados evidenciam uma relação negativa do risco de incumprimento com os retornos de capital, que é devida a um efeito momentum e à volatilidade. A par disso, também se demonstra que o tamanho e o book-to-market não são representativos do risco de incumprimento na amostra aqui utilizada, ao contrário do que Fama & French (1992; 1996) afirmavam.

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This thesis focuses on the application of optimal alarm systems to non linear time series models. The most common classes of models in the analysis of real-valued and integer-valued time series are described. The construction of optimal alarm systems is covered and its applications explored. Considering models with conditional heteroscedasticity, particular attention is given to the Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH, FIAPARCH(p; d; q) model and an optimal alarm system is implemented, following both classical and Bayesian methodologies. Taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the APARCH(p; q) representation for financial time series, the introduction of a possible counterpart for modelling time series of counts is proposed: the INteger-valued Asymmetric Power ARCH, INAPARCH(p; q). The probabilistic properties of the INAPARCH(1; 1) model are comprehensively studied, the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is applied and the asymptotic properties of the conditional ML estimator are obtained. The final part of the work consists on the implementation of an optimal alarm system to the INAPARCH(1; 1) model. An application is presented to real data series.

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Sea salt is a natural product obtained from the evaporation of seawater in saltpans due to the combined effect of wind and sunlight. Nowadays, there is a growing interest for protection and re-valorisation of saltpans intrinsically associated to the quality of sea salt that can be evaluated by its physico-chemical properties. These man-made systems can be located in different geographical areas presenting different environmental surroundings. During the crystallization process, organic compounds coming from these surroundings can be incorporated into sea salt crystals, influencing their final composition. The organic matter associated to sea salt arises from three main sources: algae, surrounding bacterial community, and anthropogenic activity. Based on the hypothesis that sea salt contains associated organic compounds that can be used as markers of the product, including saltpans surrounding environment, the aim of this PhD thesis was to identify these compounds. With this purpose, this work comprised: 1) a deep characterisation of the volatile composition of sea salt by headspace solid phase microextraction combined with comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (HS-SPME/GCGC–ToFMS) methodology, in search of potential sea salt volatile markers; 2) the development of a methodology to isolate the polymeric material potentially present in sea salt, in amounts that allow its characterisation in terms of polysaccharides and protein; and 3) to explore the possible presence of triacylglycerides. The high chromatographic resolution and sensitivity of GC×GC–ToFMS enabled the separation and identification of a higher number of volatile compounds from sea salt, about three folds, compared to unidimentional chromatography (GC–qMS). The chromatographic contour plots obtained revealed the complexity of marine salt volatile composition and confirmed the relevance of GC×GC–ToFMS for this type of analysis. The structured bidimentional chromatographic profile arising from 1D volatility and 2D polarity was demonstrated, allowing more reliable identifications. Results obtained for analysis of salt from two locations in Aveiro and harvested over three years suggest the loss of volatile compounds along the time of storage of the salt. From Atlantic Ocean salts of seven different geographical origins, all produced in 2007, it was possible to identify a sub-set of ten compounds present in all salts, namely 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one, 2,2,6-trimethylcyclohexanone, isophorone, ketoisophorone, β-ionone-5,6-epoxide, dihydroactinidiolide, 6,10,14-trimethyl-2-pentadecanone, 3-hydroxy-2,4,4-trimethylpentyl 2-methylpropanoate, 2,4,4-trimethylpentane-1,3-diyl bis(2-methylpropanoate), and 2-ethyl-1-hexanol. These ten compounds were considered potential volatile markers of sea salt. Seven of these compounds are carotenoid-derived compounds, and the other three may result from the integration of compounds from anthropogenic activity as metabolites of marine organisms. The present PhD work also allowed the isolation and characterisation, for the first time, of polymeric material from sea salt, using 16 Atlantic Ocean salts. A dialysis-based methodology was developed to isolate the polymeric material from sea salt in amounts that allowed its characterisation. The median content of polymeric material isolated from the 16 salts was 144 mg per kg of salt, e.g. 0.014% (w/w). Mid-infrared spectroscopy and thermogravimetry revealed the main occurrence of sulfated polysaccharides, as well as the presence of protein in the polymeric material from sea salt. Sea salt polysaccharides were found to be rich in uronic acid residues (21 mol%), glucose (18), galactose (16), and fucose (13). Sulfate content represented a median of 45 mol%, being the median content of sulfated polysaccharides 461 mg/g of polymeric material, which accounted for 66 mg/kg of dry salt. Glycosidic linkage composition indicates that the main sugar residues that could carry one or more sulfate groups were identified as fucose and galactose. This fact allowed to infer that the polysaccharides from sea salt arise mainly from algae, due to their abundance and composition. The amino acid profile of the polymeric material from the 16 Atlantic Ocean salts showed as main residues, as medians, alanine (25 mol%), leucine (14), and valine (14), which are hydrophobic, being the median protein content 35 mg/g, i.e. 4,9 mg per kg of dry salt. Beside the occurrence of hydrophobic volatile compounds in sea salt, hydrophobic non-volatile compounds were also detected. Triacylglycerides were obtained from sea salt by soxhlet extraction with n-hexane. Fatty acid composition revealed palmitic acid as the major residue (43 mol%), followed by stearic (13), linolenic (13), oleic (12), and linoleic (9). Sea salt triacylglycerides median content was 1.5 mg per kg of dry salt. Both protein and triacylglycerides seem to arise from macro and microalgae, phytoplankton and cyanobacteria, due to their abundance and composition. Despite the variability resulting from saltpans surrounding environment, this PhD thesis allowed the identification of a sea salt characteristic organic compounds profile based on volatile compounds, polysaccharides, protein, and triacylglycerides.

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The Asymmetric Power Arch representation for the volatility was introduced by Ding et al.(1993) in order to account for asymmetric responses in the volatility in the analysis of continuous-valued financial time series like, for instance, the log-return series of foreign exchange rates, stock indices or share prices. As reported by Brannas and Quoreshi (2010), asymmetric responses in volatility are also observed in time series of counts such as the number of intra-day transactions in stocks. In this work, an asymmetric power autoregressive conditional Poisson model is introduced for the analysis of time series of counts exhibiting asymmetric overdispersion. Basic probabilistic and statistical properties are summarized and parameter estimation is discussed. A simulation study is presented to illustrate the proposed model. Finally, an empirical application to a set of data concerning the daily number of stock transactions is also presented to attest for its practical applicability in data analysis.