Effect of vehicle characteristics on safety, fuel use and emissions

Nos últimos anos, o número de vítimas de acidentes de tráfego por milhões de habitantes em Portugal tem sido mais elevado do que a média da União Europeia. Ao nível nacional torna-se premente uma melhor compreensão dos dados de acidentes e sobre o efeito do veículo na gravidade do mesmo. O objetivo principal desta investigação consistiu no desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão da gravidade do acidente, para o caso de um único veículo envolvido e para caso de uma colisão, envolvendo dois veículos. Além disso, esta investigação compreendeu o desenvolvimento de uma análise integrada para avaliar o desempenho do veículo em termos de segurança, eficiência energética e emissões de poluentes. Os dados de acidentes foram recolhidos junto da Guarda Nacional Republicana Portuguesa, na área metropolitana do Porto para o período de 2006-2010. Um total de 1,374 acidentes foram recolhidos, 500 acidentes envolvendo um único veículo e 874 colisões. Para a análise da segurança, foram utilizados modelos de regressão logística. Para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o efeito das características do veículo no risco de feridos graves e/ou mortos (variável resposta definida como binária) foi explorado. Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos foram criadas duas variáveis binárias adicionais: uma para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos num dos veículos (designado como veículo V1) e outra para prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no outro veículo envolvido (designado como veículo V2). Para ultrapassar o desafio e limitações relativas ao tamanho da amostra e desigualdade entre os casos analisados (apenas 5.1% de acidentes graves), foi desenvolvida uma metodologia com base numa estratégia de reamostragem e foram utilizadas 10 amostras geradas de forma aleatória e estratificada para a validação dos modelos. Durante a fase de modelação, foi analisado o efeito das características do veículo, como o peso, a cilindrada, a distância entre eixos e a idade do veículo. Para a análise do consumo de combustível e das emissões, foi aplicada a metodologia CORINAIR. Posteriormente, os dados das emissões foram modelados de forma a serem ajustados a regressões lineares. Finalmente, foi desenvolvido um indicador de análise integrada (denominado “SEG”) que proporciona um método de classificação para avaliar o desempenho do veículo ao nível da segurança rodoviária, consumos e emissões de poluentes.Face aos resultados obtidos, para os acidentes envolvendo um único veículo, o modelo de previsão do risco de gravidade identificou a idade e a cilindrada do veículo como estatisticamente significativas para a previsão de ocorrência de feridos graves e/ou mortos, ao nível de significância de 5%. A exatidão do modelo foi de 58.0% (desvio padrão (D.P.) 3.1). Para as colisões envolvendo dois veículos, ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V1, a cilindrada do veículo oposto (veículo V2) aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V1, ao nível de significância de 10%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V1 revelou um bom desempenho, com uma exatidão de 61.2% (D.P. 2.4). Ao prever a probabilidade de feridos graves e/ou mortos no veículo V2, a cilindrada do veículo V1 aumentou o risco para os ocupantes do veículo V2, ao nível de significância de 5%. O modelo para prever o risco de gravidade no veículo V2 também revelou um desempenho satisfatório, com uma exatidão de 40.5% (D.P. 2.1). Os resultados do indicador integrado SEG revelaram que os veículos mais recentes apresentam uma melhor classificação para os três domínios: segurança, consumo e emissões. Esta investigação demonstra que não existe conflito entre a componente da segurança, a eficiência energética e emissões relativamente ao desempenho dos veículos.

Multiplicity results for some classes of Schrödinger-Poisson systems

In this thesis, we study the existence and multiplicity of solutions of the following class of Schr odinger-Poisson systems: u + u + l(x) u = (x; u) in R3; = l(x)u2 in R3; where l 2 L2(R3) or l 2 L1(R3). And we consider that the nonlinearity satis es the following three kinds of cases: (i) a subcritical exponent with (x; u) = k(x)jujp 2u + h(x)u (4 p < 2 ) under an inde nite case; (ii) a general inde nite nonlinearity with (x; u) = k(x)g(u) + h(x)u; (iii) a critical growth exponent with (x; u) = k(x)juj2 2u + h(x)jujq 2u (2 q < 2 ). It is worth mentioning that the thesis contains three main innovations except overcoming several di culties, which are generated by the systems themselves. First, as an unknown referee said in his report, we are the rst authors concerning the existence of multiple positive solutions for Schr odinger- Poisson systems with an inde nite nonlinearity. Second, we nd an interesting phenomenon in Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 that we do not need the condition R R3 k(x)ep 1dx < 0 with an inde nite noncoercive case, where e1 is the rst eigenfunction of +id in H1(R3) with weight function h. A similar condition has been shown to be a su cient and necessary condition to the existence of positive solutions for semilinear elliptic equations with inde nite nonlinearity for a bounded domain (see e.g. Alama-Tarantello, Calc. Var. PDE 1 (1993), 439{475), or to be a su cient condition to the existence of positive solutions for semilinear elliptic equations with inde nite nonlinearity in RN (see e.g. Costa-Tehrani, Calc. Var. PDE 13 (2001), 159{189). Moreover, the process used in this case can be applied to study other aspects of the Schr odinger-Poisson systems and it gives a way to study the Kirchho system and quasilinear Schr odinger system. Finally, to get sign changing solutions in Chapter 5, we follow the spirit of Hirano-Shioji, Proc. Roy. Soc. Edinburgh Sect. A 137 (2007), 333, but the procedure is simpler than that they have proposed in their paper.

Minimal state-space realizations of 2D convolutional codes

In this thesis we consider two-dimensional (2D) convolutional codes. As happens in the one-dimensional (1D) case one of the major issues is obtaining minimal state-space realizations for these codes. It turns out that the problem of minimal realization of codes is not equivalent to the minimal realization of encoders. This is due to the fact that the same code may admit different encoders with different McMillan degrees. Here we focus on the study of minimality of the realizations of 2D convolutional codes by means of separable Roesser models. Such models can be regarded as a series connection between two 1D systems. As a first step we provide an algorithm to obtain a minimal realization of a 1D convolutional code starting from a minimal realization of an encoder of the code. Then, we restrict our study to two particular classes of 2D convolutional codes. The first class to be considered is the one of codes which admit encoders of type n 1. For these codes, minimal encoders (i.e., encoders for which a minimal realization is also minimal as a code realization) are characterized enabling the construction of minimal code realizations starting from such encoders. The second class of codes to be considered is the one constituted by what we have called composition codes. For a subclass of these codes, we propose a method to obtain minimal realizations by means of separable Roesser models.

Optimal alarms systems and its application to financial time series

This thesis focuses on the application of optimal alarm systems to non linear time series models. The most common classes of models in the analysis of real-valued and integer-valued time series are described. The construction of optimal alarm systems is covered and its applications explored. Considering models with conditional heteroscedasticity, particular attention is given to the Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH, FIAPARCH(p; d; q) model and an optimal alarm system is implemented, following both classical and Bayesian methodologies. Taking into consideration the particular characteristics of the APARCH(p; q) representation for financial time series, the introduction of a possible counterpart for modelling time series of counts is proposed: the INteger-valued Asymmetric Power ARCH, INAPARCH(p; q). The probabilistic properties of the INAPARCH(1; 1) model are comprehensively studied, the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method is applied and the asymptotic properties of the conditional ML estimator are obtained. The final part of the work consists on the implementation of an optimal alarm system to the INAPARCH(1; 1) model. An application is presented to real data series.

International cooperation for development in tourism destinations

The main goal of this thesis is to propose a conceptual theoretical model of critical success factors of International Development Cooperation programmes that are based in knowledge transfer approaches in the context of tourism development. The research was structured around three main theoretical pillars: international development cooperation (IDC), tourism as a tool for development, and knowledge transfer (KT). By exploring these pillars´ main interrelations, it was possible to gather the necessary background to develop the theoretical model and apply it to a real context. It was adopted a qualitative research approach using as a case study an IDC programme in tourism - the UNWTO.Volunteers programme. The key contribution of this thesis in the theoretical realm is the bridging of fields of study that are insufficiently covered in the scientific literature. The resulting model proposal applied to a real context of an IDC programme implementation permitted to test it partially providing useful insights for future research. It is postulated that IDC programmes in these contexts constitute a process rather than an end in itself. Therefore, they should be seen as a way of changing the state of the art of the tourism system in a sustainable manner so that it potentially generates positive development changes. This study suggested that it is not possible to achieve positive results if, instead of encouraging a KT and learning environment, it is simply disseminated knowledge in a linear, static, north-south approach. The characteristics of these interventions should be reviewed in that it was found that it is very difficult to guarantee the maintenance of the development changes induced by them if it is not safeguarded the necessary conditions and accountability to implement the recommended actions. While it was perceived a great potential for development changes to be induced by some IDC programmes in tourism destinations, it was concluded that these processes are too much dependent on the local political systems and existing power relations, as well as on the level of tourism development of the destination. However, more research is needed to examine the ability to generalise the findings to other IDC programmes and different destinations of developing countries.

Numerical tools for isogeometric analysis in the nonlinear regime

The present work deals with the development of robust numerical tools for Isogeometric Analysis suitable for problems of solid mechanics in the nonlinear regime. To that end, a new solid-shell element, based on the Assumed Natural Strain method, is proposed for the analysis of thin shell-like structures. The formulation is extensively validated using a set of well-known benchmark problems available in the literature, in both linear and nonlinear (geometric and material) regimes. It is also proposed an alternative formulation which is focused on the alleviation of the volumetric locking pathology in linear elastic problems. In addition, an introductory study in the field of contact mechanics, in the context of Isogeometric Analysis, is also presented, with special focus on the implementation of a the Point-to-Segment algorithm. All the methodologies presented in the current work were implemented in a in-house code, together with several pre- and post-processing tools. In addition, user subroutines for the commercial software Abaqus were also implemented.

Phase transitions and nonlinear phenomena in neuronal network models

Communication and cooperation between billions of neurons underlie the power of the brain. How do complex functions of the brain arise from its cellular constituents? How do groups of neurons self-organize into patterns of activity? These are crucial questions in neuroscience. In order to answer them, it is necessary to have solid theoretical understanding of how single neurons communicate at the microscopic level, and how cooperative activity emerges. In this thesis we aim to understand how complex collective phenomena can arise in a simple model of neuronal networks. We use a model with balanced excitation and inhibition and complex network architecture, and we develop analytical and numerical methods for describing its neuronal dynamics. We study how interaction between neurons generates various collective phenomena, such as spontaneous appearance of network oscillations and seizures, and early warnings of these transitions in neuronal networks. Within our model, we show that phase transitions separate various dynamical regimes, and we investigate the corresponding bifurcations and critical phenomena. It permits us to suggest a qualitative explanation of the Berger effect, and to investigate phenomena such as avalanches, band-pass filter, and stochastic resonance. The role of modular structure in the detection of weak signals is also discussed. Moreover, we find nonlinear excitations that can describe paroxysmal spikes observed in electroencephalograms from epileptic brains. It allows us to propose a method to predict epileptic seizures. Memory and learning are key functions of the brain. There are evidences that these processes result from dynamical changes in the structure of the brain. At the microscopic level, synaptic connections are plastic and are modified according to the dynamics of neurons. Thus, we generalize our cortical model to take into account synaptic plasticity and we show that the repertoire of dynamical regimes becomes richer. In particular, we find mixed-mode oscillations and a chaotic regime in neuronal network dynamics.

Development of polymeric materials to inhibit bacterial quorum sensing

Bacterial infections are an increasing problem for human health. In fact, an increasing number of infections are caused by bacteria that are resistant to most antibiotics and their combinations. Therefore, the scientific community is currently searching for new solutions to fight bacteria and infectious diseases, without promoting antimicrobial resistance. One of the most promising strategies is the disruption or attenuation of bacterial Quorum Sensing (QS), a refined system that bacteria use to communicate. In a QS event, bacteria produce and release specific small chemicals, signal molecules - autoinducers (AIs) - into the environment. At the same time that bacterial population grows, the concentration of AIs in the bacterial environment increases. When a threshold concentration of AIs is reached, bacterial cells respond to it by altering their gene expression profile. AIs regulate gene expression as a function of cell population density. Phenotypes mediated by QS (QSphenotypes) include virulence factors, toxin production, antibiotic resistance and biofilm formation. In this work, two polymeric materials (linear polymers and molecularly imprinted nanoparticles) were developed and their ability to attenuate QS was evaluated. Both types of polymers should to be able to adsorb bacterial signal molecules, limiting their availability in the extracellular environment, with expected disruption of QS. Linear polymers were composed by one of two monomers (itaconic acid and methacrylic acid), which are known to possess strong interactions with the bacterial signal molecules. Molecularly imprinted polymer nanoparticles (MIP NPs) are particles with recognition capabilities for the analyte of interest. This ability is attained by including the target analyte at the synthesis stage. Vibrio fischeri and Aeromonas hydrophila were used as model species for the study. Both the linear polymers and MIP NPs, tested free in solutions and coated to surfaces, showed ability to disrupt QS by decreasing bioluminescence of V. fischeri and biofilm formation of A. hydrophila. No significant effect on bacterial growth was detected. The cytotoxicity of the two types of polymers to a fibroblast-like cell line (Vero cells) was also tested in order to evaluate their safety. The results showed that both the linear polymers and MIP NPs were not cytotoxic in the testing conditions. In conclusion, the results reported in this thesis, show that the polymers developed are a promising strategy to disrupt QS and reduce bacterial infection and resistance. In addition, due to their low toxicity, solubility and easy integration by surface coating, the polymers have potential for applications in scenarios where bacterial infection is a problem: medicine, pharmaceutical, food industry and in agriculture or aquaculture.

Piezoelectricity and ferroelectricity in amino acid glycine

Bioorganic ferroelectrics and piezoelectrics are becoming increasingly important in view of their intrinsic compatibility with biological environment and biofunctionality combined with strong piezoelectric effect and switchable polarization at room temperature. Here we study piezoelectricity and ferroelectricity in the smallest amino acid glycine, representing a broad class of non-centrosymmetric amino acids. Glycine is one of the basic and important elements in biology, as it serves as a building block for proteins. Three polymorphic forms with different physical properties are possible in glycine (α, β and γ), Of special interest for various applications are non-centrosymmetric polymorphs: β-glycine and γ-glycine. The most useful β-polymorph being ferroelectric took much less attention than the other due to its instability under ambient conditions. In this work, we could grow stable microcrystals of β-glycine by the evaporation of aqueous solution on a (111)Pt/Ti/SiO2/Si substrate as a template. The effects of the solution concentration and Pt-assisted nucleation on the crystal growth and phase evolution were characterized by X-ray diffraction analysis and Raman spectroscopy. In addition, spin-coating technique was used for the fabrication of highly aligned nano-islands of β-glycine with regular orientation of the crystallographic axes relative the underlying substrate (Pt). Further we study both as-grown and tip-induced domain structures and polarization switching in the β-glycine molecular systems by Piezoresponse Force Microscopy (PFM) and compare the results with molecular modeling and computer simulations. We show that β-glycine is indeed a room-temperature ferroelectric and polarization can be switched by applying a bias to non-polar cuts via a conducting tip of atomic force microscope (AFM). Dynamics of these in-plane domains is studied as a function of applied voltage and pulse duration. The domain shape is dictated by both internal and external polarization screening mediated by defects and topographic features. Thermodynamic theory is applied to explain the domain propagation induced by the AFM tip. Our findings suggest that β-glycine is a uniaxial ferroelectric with the properties controlled by the charged domain walls which in turn can be manipulated by external bias. Besides, nonlinear optical properties of β-glycine were investigated by a second harmonic generation (SHG) method. SHG method confirmed that the 2-fold symmetry is preserved in as-grown crystals, thus reflecting the expected P21 symmetry of the β-phase. Spontaneous polarization direction is found to be parallel to the monoclinic [010] axis and directed along the crystal length. These data are confirmed by computational molecular modeling. Optical measurements revealed also relatively high values of the nonlinear optical susceptibility (50% greater than in the z-cut quartz). The potential of using stable β-glycine crystals in various applications are discussed in this work.