Impact of offshore wind power forecast error in a carbon constraint electricity market

This paper investigates the impacts of offshore wind power forecast error on the operation and management of a pool-based electricity market in 2050. The impact from offshore wind power forecast errors of up to 2000 MW on system generation costs, emission costs, dispatch-down of wind, number of start-ups and system marginal price are analysed. The main findings of this research are an increase in system marginal prices of approximately 1% for every percentage point rise in the offshore wind power forecast error regardless of the average forecast error sign. If offshore wind power generates less than forecasted (−13%) generation costs and system marginal prices increases by 10%. However, if offshore wind power generates more than forecasted (4%) the generation costs decrease yet the system marginal prices increase by 3%. The dispatch down of large quantities of wind power highlights the need for flexible interconnector capacity. From a system operator's perspective it is more beneficial when scheduling wind ahead of the trading period to forecast less wind than will be generated.

System level DSP synthesis using voltage overscaling, unequal error protection & adaptive quality tuning

In this paper, we propose a system level design approach considering voltage over-scaling (VOS) that achieves error resiliency using unequal error protection of different computation elements, while incurring minor quality degradation. Depending on user specifications and severity of process variations/channel noise, the degree of VOS in each block of the system is adaptively tuned to ensure minimum system power while providing "just-the-right" amount of quality and robustness. This is achieved, by taking into consideration system level interactions and ensuring that under any change of operating conditions only the "lesscrucial" computations, that contribute less to block/system output quality, are affected. The design methodology applied to a DCT/IDCT system shows large power benefits (up to 69%) at reasonable image quality while tolerating errors induced by varying operating conditions (VOS, process variations, channel noise). Interestingly, the proposed IDCT scheme conceals channel noise at scaled voltages. ©2009 IEEE.

Design methodology to trade off power, output quality and error resiliency: Application to color interpolation filtering

Power dissipation and tolerance to process variations pose conflicting design requirements. Scaling of voltage is associated with larger variations, while Vdd upscaling or transistor up-sizing for process tolerance can be detrimental for power dissipation. However, for certain signal processing systems such as those used in color image processing, we noted that effective trade-offs can be achieved between Vdd scaling, process tolerance and "output quality". In this paper we demonstrate how these tradeoffs can be effectively utilized in the development of novel low-power variation tolerant architectures for color interpolation. The proposed architecture supports a graceful degradation in the PSNR (Peak Signal to Noise Ratio) under aggressive voltage scaling as well as extreme process variations in. sub-70nm technologies. This is achieved by exploiting the fact that some computations are more important and contribute more to the PSNR improvement compared to the others. The computations are mapped to the hardware in such a way that only the less important computations are affected by Vdd-scaling and process variations. Simulation results show that even at a scaled voltage of 60% of nominal Vdd value, our design provides reasonable image PSNR with 69% power savings.

On the Exploitation of the Inherent Error Resilience of Wireless Systems under Unreliable Silicon

In this paper, we investigate the impact of circuit misbehavior due to parametric variations and voltage scaling on the performance of wireless communication systems. Our study reveals the inherent error resilience of such systems and argues that sufficiently reliable operation can be maintained even in the presence of unreliable circuits and manufacturing defects. We further show how selective application of more robust circuit design techniques is sufficient to deal with high defect rates at low overhead and improve energy efficiency with negligible system performance degradation.

Logic and Memory Design Based on Unequal Error Protection for Voltage-scalable, Robust and Adaptive DSP Systems

In this paper, we propose a system level design approach considering voltage over-scaling (VOS) that achieves error resiliency using unequal error protection of different computation elements, while incurring minor quality degradation. Depending on user specifications and severity of process variations/channel noise, the degree of VOS in each block of the system is adaptively tuned to ensure minimum system power while providing "just-the-right" amount of quality and robustness. This is achieved, by taking into consideration block level interactions and ensuring that under any change of operating conditions, only the "less-crucial" computations, that contribute less to block/system output quality, are affected. The proposed approach applies unequal error protection to various blocks of a system-logic and memory-and spans multiple layers of design hierarchy-algorithm, architecture and circuit. The design methodology when applied to a multimedia subsystem shows large power benefits ( up to 69% improvement in power consumption) at reasonable image quality while tolerating errors introduced due to VOS, process variations, and channel noise.

Reducing Child Protection Error in Social Work: Towards an Holistic-Rational Perspective

Social work in the United Kingdom remains embroiled in concerns about child protection error. The serious injury or death of vulnerable children continues to evince much consternation in the public and private spheres. Governmental responses to these concerns invariably draw on technocratic solutions involving more procedures, case management systems, information technology and bureaucratic regulation. Such solutions flow from an implicit use of instrumental rationality based on a ‘means-end’ logic. While bringing an important perspective to the problem of child protection error, instrumental rationality has been overused limiting discretion and other modes of rational inquiry. This paper argues that the social work profession should apply an enlarged form of rationality comprising not only the instrumental-rational mode but also the critical-rational, affective-rational and communicative-rational forms. It is suggested that this combined, conceptual arsenal of rational inquiry leads to a gestalt which has been termed the holistic-rational perspective. It is also argued that embracing a more rounded perspective such as this might offer greater opportunities for reducing child protection error.

Prevalence of refractive error in Europe: the European Eye Epidemiology (E3) Consortium

To estimate the prevalence of refractive error in adults across Europe. Refractive data (mean spherical equivalent) collected between 1990 and 2013 from fifteen population-based cohort and cross-sectional studies of the European Eye Epidemiology (E³) Consortium were combined in a random effects meta-analysis stratified by 5-year age intervals and gender. Participants were excluded if they were identified as having had cataract surgery, retinal detachment, refractive surgery or other factors that might influence refraction. Estimates of refractive error prevalence were obtained including the following classifications: myopia ≤−0.75 diopters (D), high myopia ≤−6D, hyperopia ≥1D and astigmatism ≥1D. Meta-analysis of refractive error was performed for 61,946 individuals from fifteen studies with median age ranging from 44 to 81 and minimal ethnic variation (98 % European ancestry). The age-standardised prevalences (using the 2010 European Standard Population, limited to those ≥25 and <90 years old) were: myopia 30.6 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 30.4–30.9], high myopia 2.7 % (95 % CI 2.69–2.73), hyperopia 25.2 % (95 % CI 25.0–25.4) and astigmatism 23.9 % (95 % CI 23.7–24.1). Age-specific estimates revealed a high prevalence of myopia in younger participants [47.2 % (CI 41.8–52.5) in 25–29 years-olds]. Refractive error affects just over a half of European adults. The greatest burden of refractive error is due to myopia, with high prevalence rates in young adults. Using the 2010 European population estimates, we estimate there are 227.2 million people with myopia across Europe.

A methodology to analyse the impact of offshore wind forecasting error on electricity markets

Currently wind power is dominated by onshore wind farms in the British Isles, but both the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland have high renewable energy targets, expected to come mostly from wind power. However, as the demand for wind power grows to ensure security of energy supply, as a potentially cheaper alternative to fossil fuels and to meet greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets offshore wind power will grow rapidly as the availability of suitable onshore sites decrease. However, wind is variable and stochastic by nature and thus difficult to schedule. In order to plan for these uncertainties market operators use wind forecasting tools, reserve plant and ancillary service agreements. Onshore wind power forecasting techniques have improved dramatically and continue to advance, but offshore wind power forecasting is more difficult due to limited datasets and knowledge. So as the amount of offshore wind power increases in the British Isles robust forecasting and planning techniques are even more critical. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of better offshore wind forecasting on the operation and management of the single wholesale electricity market in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland using PLEXOS for Power Systems. © 2013 IEEE.

Understanding controls on cirque floor altitudes: insights from Kamchatka

Glacial cirques reflect former regions of glacier initiation, and are therefore used as indicators of past climate. One specific way in which palaeoclimatic information is obtained from cirques is by analysing their elevations, on the assumption that cirque floor altitudes are a proxy for climatically controlled equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) during former periods of small scale (cirque-type) glaciation. However, specific controls on cirque altitudes are rarely assessed, and the validity of using cirque floor altitudes as a source of palaeoclimatic information remains open to question. In order to address this, here we analyse the distribution of 3520 ice-free cirques on the Kamchatka Peninsula (eastern Russia), and assess various controls on their floor altitudes. In addition, we analyse controls on the mid-altitudes of 503 modern glaciers, currently identifiable on the peninsula, and make comparisons with the cirque altitude data. The main study findings are that cirque floor altitudes increase steeply inland from the Pacific, suggesting that moisture availability (i.e., proximity to the coastline) played a key role in regulating the altitudes at which former (cirque-forming) glaciers were able to initiate. Other factors, such as latitude, aspect, topography, geology and neo-tectonics seem to have played a limited (but not insignificant) role in regulating cirque floor altitudes, though south-facing cirques are typically higher than their north-facing equivalents, potentially reflecting the impact of prevailing wind directions (from the SSE) and/or variations in solar radiation on the altitudes at which former glaciers were able to initiate. Trends in glacier and cirque altitudes across the peninsula are typically comparable (i.e., values typically rise from both the north and south, inland from the Pacific coastline, and where glaciers/cirques are south-facing), yet the relationship with latitude is stronger for modern glaciers, and the relationship with distance to the coastline (and to a lesser degree with aspect) is notably weaker. These differences suggest that former glacier initiation (leading to cirque formation) was largely regulated by moisture availability (during winter months) and the control this exerted on accumulation; whilst the survival of modern glaciers is also strongly regulated by the variety of climatic and non climatic factors that control ablation. As a result, relationships between modern glacier mid-altitudes and peninsula-wide climatic trends are more difficult to identify than when cirque floor altitudes are considered (i.e., cirque-forming glaciers were likely in climatic equilibrium, whereas modern glaciers may not be).

A new battery modelling method based on simulation error minimization

A new battery modelling method is presented based on the simulation error minimization criterion rather than the conventional prediction error criterion. A new integrated optimization method to optimize the model parameters is proposed. This new method is validated on a set of Li ion battery test data, and the results confirm the advantages of the proposed method in terms of the model generalization performance and long-term prediction accuracy.

Strange, But True? Object-oriented Programming Is Best Taught, And Learnt, While Sitting On The Floor.

There is a perception amongst some of those learning computer programming that the principles of object-oriented programming (where behaviour is often encapsulated across multiple class files) can be difficult to grasp, especially when taught through a traditional, didactic ‘talk-and-chalk’ method or in a lecture-based environment.
We propose a non-traditional teaching method, developed for a government funded teaching training project delivered by Queen’s University, we call it bigCode. In this scenario, learners are provided with many printed, poster-sized fragments of code (in this case either Java or C#). The learners sit on the floor in groups and assemble these fragments into the many classes which make-up an object-oriented program.
Early trials indicate that bigCode is an effective method for teaching object-orientation. The requirement to physically organise the code fragments imitates closely the thought processes of a good software developer when developing object-oriented code.
Furthermore, in addition to teaching the principles involved in object-orientation, bigCode is also an extremely useful technique for teaching learners the organisation and structure of individual classes in Java or C# (as well as the organisation of procedural code). The mechanics of organising fragments of code into complete, correct computer programs give the users first-hand practice of this important skill, and as a result they subsequently find it much easier to develop well-structured code on a computer.
Yet, open questions remain. Is bigCode successful only because we have unknowingly predominantly targeted kinesthetic learners? Is bigCode also an effective teaching approach for other forms of learners, such as visual learners? How scalable is bigCode: in its current form can it be used with large class sizes, or outside the classroom?

Mitigating the Impact of Faults in Unreliable Memories for Error-Resilient Applications

Inherently error-resilient applications in areas such as signal processing, machine learning and data analytics provide opportunities for relaxing reliability requirements, and thereby reducing the overhead incurred by conventional error correction schemes. In this paper, we exploit the tolerable imprecision of such applications by designing an energy-efficient fault-mitigation scheme for unreliable data memories to meet target yield. The proposed approach uses a bit-shuffling mechanism to isolate faults into bit locations with lower significance. This skews the bit-error distribution towards the low order bits, substantially limiting the output error magnitude. By controlling the granularity of the shuffling, the proposed technique enables trading-off quality for power, area, and timing overhead. Compared to error-correction codes, this can reduce the overhead by as much as 83% in read power, 77% in read access time, and 89% in area, when applied to various data mining applications in 28nm process technology.

Two-year changes in refractive error and related biometric factors in an adult Chinese population

Importance: This article provides, to our knowledge, the first longitudinal population-based data on refractive error (RE) in Chinese persons.

Objective: To study cohort effects and changes associated with aging in REs among Chinese adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants: A 2-year, longitudinal population-based cohort study was conducted in southern China. Participants, identified using cluster random sampling, included residents of Yuexiu District, Guangzhou, China, aged 35 years or older who had undergone no previous eye surgery.

Methods: Participants underwent noncycloplegic automated refraction and keratometry in December 2008 and December 2010; in a random 50% sample of the participants, anterior segment ocular coherence tomography measurement of lens thickness, as well as measurement of axial length and anterior chamber depth by partial coherence laser interferometry, were performed.

Main Outcomes and Measures: Two-year change in spherical equivalent refraction (RE), lens thickness, axial length, and anterior chamber depth in the right eye.

Results: A total of 745 individuals underwent biometric testing in both 2008 and 2010 (2008 mean [SD] age, 52.2 [11.5] years; 53.7% women). Mean RE showed a 2-year hyperopic shift from −0.44 (2.21) to −0.31 (2.26) diopters (D) (difference, +0.13; 95% CI, 0.11 to 0.16). A consistent 2-year hyperopic shift of 0.09 to 0.22 D was observed among participants aged 35 to 64 years when stratifying by decade, suggesting that a substantial change in RE with aging may occur during this 30-year period. Cross-sectionally, RE increased only in the cohort younger than 50 years (0.11 D/y; 95% CI, 0.06 to 0.16). In the cross-sectional data, axial length decreased at −0.06 mm/y (95% CI, −0.09 to −0.04), although the 2-year change in axial length was positive and thus could not explain the cross-sectional difference. These latter results suggest a cohort effect, with greater myopia developing among younger persons.

Conclusions and Relevance: This first Chinese population-based longitudinal study of RE provides evidence for both important longitudinal aging changes and cohort effects, most notably greater myopia prevalence among younger persons.