Influence diagnostics for elliptical semiparametric mixed models

In this paper we extend semiparametric mixed linear models with normal errors to elliptical errors in order to permit distributions with heavier and lighter tails than the normal ones. Penalized likelihood equations are applied to derive the maximum penalized likelihood estimates (MPLEs) which appear to be robust against outlying observations in the sense of the Mahalanobis distance. A reweighed iterative process based on the back-fitting method is proposed for the parameter estimation and the local influence curvatures are derived under some usual perturbation schemes to study the sensitivity of the MPLEs. Two motivating examples preliminarily analyzed under normal errors are reanalyzed considering some appropriate elliptical errors. The local influence approach is used to compare the sensitivity of the model estimates.

Local power properties of some asymptotic tests in symmetric linear regression models

In this paper we obtain asymptotic expansions, up to order n(-1/2) and under a sequence of Pitman alternatives, for the nonnull distribution functions of the likelihood ratio, Wald, score and gradient test statistics in the class of symmetric linear regression models. This is a wide class of models which encompasses the t model and several other symmetric distributions with longer-than normal tails. The asymptotic distributions of all four statistics are obtained for testing a subset of regression parameters. Furthermore, in order to compare the finite-sample performance of these tests in this class of models, Monte Carlo simulations are presented. An empirical application to a real data set is considered for illustrative purposes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Competing regression models for longitudinal data

The choice of an appropriate family of linear models for the analysis of longitudinal data is often a matter of concern for practitioners. To attenuate such difficulties, we discuss some issues that emerge when analyzing this type of data via a practical example involving pretestposttest longitudinal data. In particular, we consider log-normal linear mixed models (LNLMM), generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), and models based on generalized estimating equations (GEE). We show how some special features of the data, like a nonconstant coefficient of variation, may be handled in the three approaches and evaluate their performance with respect to the magnitude of standard errors of interpretable and comparable parameters. We also show how different diagnostic tools may be employed to identify outliers and comment on available software. We conclude by noting that the results are similar, but that GEE-based models may be preferable when the goal is to compare the marginal expected responses.

The concept of quasi-integrability for modified non-linear Schrodinger models

We consider modifications of the nonlinear Schrodinger model (NLS) to look at the recently introduced concept of quasi-integrability. We show that such models possess an in finite number of quasi-conserved charges which present intriguing properties in relation to very specific space-time parity transformations. For the case of two-soliton solutions where the fields are eigenstates of this parity, those charges are asymptotically conserved in the scattering process of the solitons. Even though the charges vary in time their values in the far past and the far future are the same. Such results are obtained through analytical and numerical methods, and employ adaptations of algebraic techniques used in integrable field theories. Our findings may have important consequences on the applications of these models in several areas of non-linear science. We make a detailed numerical study of the modified NLS potential of the form V similar to (vertical bar psi vertical bar(2))(2+epsilon), with epsilon being a perturbation parameter. We perform numerical simulations of the scattering of solitons for this model and find a good agreement with the results predicted by the analytical considerations. Our paper shows that the quasi-integrability concepts recently proposed in the context of modifications of the sine-Gordon model remain valid for perturbations of the NLS model.

Influence Assessment in an Heteroscedastic Errors-in-Variables Model

The main goal of this article is to consider influence assessment in models with error-prone observations and variances of the measurement errors changing across observations. The techniques enable to identify potential influential elements and also to quantify the effects of perturbations in these elements on some results of interest. The approach is illustrated with data from the WHO MONICA Project on cardiovascular disease.

The importance of plant life form on spatial associations along a subtropical coastal dune gradient

Questions Does the spatial association between isolated adult trees and understorey plants change along a gradient of sand dunes? Does this association depend on the life form of the understorey plant? Location Coastal sand dunes, southeast Brazil. Methods We recorded the occurrence of understorey plant species in 100 paired 0.25 m2 plots under adult trees and in adjacent treeless sites along an environmental gradient from beach to inland. Occurrence probabilities were modelled as a function of the fixed variables of the presence of a neighbour, distance from the seashore and life form, and a random variable, the block (i.e. the pair of plots). Generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) were fitted in a backward step-wise procedure using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for model selection. Results The occurrence of understorey plants was affected by the presence of an adult tree neighbour, but the effect varied with the life form of the understorey species. Positive spatial association was found between isolated adult neighbour and young trees, whereas a negative association was found for shrubs. Moreover, a neutral association was found for lianas, whereas for herbs the effect of the presence of an adult neighbour ranged from neutral to negative, depended on the subgroup considered. The strength of the negative association with forbs increased with distance from the seashore. However, for the other life forms, the associational pattern with adult trees did not change along the gradient. Conclusions For most of the understorey life forms there is no evidence that the spatial association between isolated adult trees and understorey plants changes with the distance from the seashore, as predicted by the stress gradient hypothesis, a common hypothesis in the literature about facilitation in plant communities. Furthermore, the positive spatial association between isolated adult trees and young trees identified along the entire gradient studied indicates a positive feedback that explains the transition from open vegetation to forest in subtropical coastal dune environments.

Assessment of variance components in nonlinear mixed-effects elliptical models

The issue of assessing variance components is essential in deciding on the inclusion of random effects in the context of mixed models. In this work we discuss this problem by supposing nonlinear elliptical models for correlated data by using the score-type test proposed in Silvapulle and Silvapulle (1995). Being asymptotically equivalent to the likelihood ratio test and only requiring the estimation under the null hypothesis, this test provides a fairly easy computable alternative for assessing one-sided hypotheses in the context of the marginal model. Taking into account the possible non-normal distribution, we assume that the joint distribution of the response variable and the random effects lies in the elliptical class, which includes light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions such as Student-t, power exponential, logistic, generalized Student-t, generalized logistic, contaminated normal, and the normal itself, among others. We compare the sensitivity of the score-type test under normal, Student-t and power exponential models for the kinetics data set discussed in Vonesh and Carter (1992) and fitted using the model presented in Russo et al. (2009). Also, a simulation study is performed to analyze the consequences of the kurtosis misspecification.

A mixed model QTL analysis for sugarcane multiple-harvest-location trial data

Sugarcane-breeding programs take at least 12 years to develop new commercial cultivars. Molecular markers offer a possibility to study the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in sugarcane, and they may be used in marker-assisted selection to speed up artificial selection. Although the performance of sugarcane progenies in breeding programs are commonly evaluated across a range of locations and harvest years, many of the QTL detection methods ignore two- and three-way interactions between QTL, harvest, and location. In this work, a strategy for QTL detection in multi-harvest-location trial data, based on interval mapping and mixed models, is proposed and applied to map QTL effects on a segregating progeny from a biparental cross of pre-commercial Brazilian cultivars, evaluated at two locations and three consecutive harvest years for cane yield (tonnes per hectare), sugar yield (tonnes per hectare), fiber percent, and sucrose content. In the mixed model, we have included appropriate (co)variance structures for modeling heterogeneity and correlation of genetic effects and non-genetic residual effects. Forty-six QTLs were found: 13 QTLs for cane yield, 14 for sugar yield, 11 for fiber percent, and 8 for sucrose content. In addition, QTL by harvest, QTL by location, and QTL by harvest by location interaction effects were significant for all evaluated traits (30 QTLs showed some interaction, and 16 none). Our results contribute to a better understanding of the genetic architecture of complex traits related to biomass production and sucrose content in sugarcane.

Bartlett corrections in Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models

Lemonte and Cordeiro [Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 53 (2009), pp. 4441-4452] introduced a class of Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) nonlinear regression models potentially useful in lifetime data analysis. We give a general matrix Bartlett correction formula to improve the likelihood ratio (LR) tests in these models. The formula is simple enough to be used analytically to obtain several closed-form expressions in special cases. Our results generalize those in Lemonte et al. [Improved likelihood inference in Birnbaum-Saunders regressions, Comput. Stat. DataAnal. 54 (2010), pp. 1307-1316], which hold only for the BS linear regression models. We consider Monte Carlo simulations to show that the corrected tests work better than the usual LR tests.

Perinatal and early adulthood factors associated with adiposity

We used body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) as fat indicators to assess whether perinatal and early adulthood factors are associated with adiposity in early adulthood. We hypothesized that risk factors differ between men and women and are also different when WC is used for measuring adiposity as opposed to BMI. We conducted a longitudinal study based on a sample of 2,063 adults from the 1978/1979 Ribeirao Preto birth cohort. Adjustment was performed using four sequential multiple linear regression models stratified by sex. Both perinatal and early adulthood variables influenced adulthood BMI and WC. The associations differed between men and women and depending on the measure of abdominal adiposity (BMI or WC). Living with a partner, for both men and women, and high fat and alcohol intake in men were factors that were consistently associated with higher adulthood BMI and WC levels. The differences observed between sexes may point to different lifestyles of men and women, suggesting that prevention policies should consider gender specific strategies.

Phylogeny and cryptic diversity in geckos (Phyllopezus; Phyllodactylidae; Gekkota) from South America's open biomes

The gecko genus Phyllopezus occurs across South America's open biomes: Cerrado, Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTF, including Caatinga), and Chaco. We generated a multi-gene dataset and estimated phylogenetic relationships among described Phyllopezus taxa and related species. We included exemplars from both described Phyllopezus pollicaris subspecies, P. p. pollicaris and P. p. przewalskii. Phylogenies from the concatenated data as well as species trees constructed from individual gene trees were largely congruent. All phylogeny reconstruction methods showed Bogertia lutzae as the sister species of Phyllopezus maranjonensis, rendering Phyllopezus paraphyletic. We synonymized the monotypic genus Bogertia with Phyllopezus to maintain a taxonomy that is isomorphic with phylogenetic history. We recovered multiple, deeply divergent, cryptic lineages within P. pollicaris. These cryptic lineages possessed mtDNA distances equivalent to distances among other gekkotan sister taxa. Described P. pollicaris subspecies are not reciprocally monophyletic and current subspecific taxonomy does not accurately reflect evolutionary relationships among cryptic lineages. We highlight the conservation significance of these results in light of the ongoing habitat loss in South America's open biomes. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ambient levels of air pollution induce clinical worsening of blepharitis

Background: Even though air pollutants exposure is associated with changes in the ocular surface and tear film, its relationship to the clinical course of blepharitis, a common eyelid disease, had not yet been investigated. Our objective was to investigate the correlation between air pollution and acute manifestations of blepharitis. Method: We recorded all cases of changes in the eyelids and ocular surface, and rated clinical findings on a scale from zero (normal) to two (severe alterations). Daily values of carbon monoxide, particulate matter smaller than 10 mu m in diameter and nitrogen dioxide concentrations and meteorological variables (temperature and relative humidity) in the vicinity of the medical service were obtained. Specific linear regression models for each outcome were constructed including pollutants as independent variables (single pollutant models). Temperature and humidity were included as confounding variables. Results: increases of 28.8 mu g/m(3) in the concentration of particulate matter and 1.1 ppm in the concentration of CO were associated with increases in cases of blepharitis on the day of exposure (5 cases, 95% CI: 1-10 and 6 cases, 95% CI: 1-12, respectively). Conclusion: Exposure to usual air pollutants concentrations present in large cities affects, in a consistent manner, the eyes of residents contributing to the increasing incidence of diseases of the eyelid margin. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dry matter production of Tanzania grass as a function of agrometeorological variables

The objective of this work was to develop and validate linear regression models to estimate the production of dry matter by Tanzania grass (Megathyrsus maximus, cultivar Tanzania) as a function of agrometeorological variables. For this purpose, data on the growth of this forage grass from 2000 to 2005, under dry-field conditions in Sao Carlos, SP, Brazil, were correlated to the following climatic parameters: minimum and mean temperatures, degree-days, and potential and actual evapotranspiration. Simple linear regressions were performed between agrometeorological variables (independent) and the dry matter accumulation rate (dependent). The estimates were validated with independent data obtained in Sao Carlos and Piracicaba, SP, Brazil. The best statistical results in the development and validation of the models were obtained with the agrometeorological parameters that consider thermal and water availability effects together, such as actual evapotranspiration, accumulation of degree-days corrected by water availability, and the climatic growth index, based on average temperature, solar radiation, and water availability. These variables can be used in simulations and models to predict the production of Tanzania grass.

Phylogenetic relationships of rock-wallabies, Petrogale (Marsupialia: Macropodidae) and their biogeographic history within Australia

The rock-wallaby genus Petrogale comprises a group of habitat-specialist macropodids endemic to Australia. Their restriction to rocky outcrops, with infrequent interpopulation dispersal, has been suggested as the cause of their recent and rapid diversification. Molecular phylogenetic relationships within and among species of Petrogale were analysed using mitochondrial (cytochrome oxidase c subunit 1, cytochrome b. NADH dehydrogenase subunit 2) and nuclear (omega-globin intron, breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility gene) sequence data with representatives that encompassed the morphological and chromosomal variation within the genus, including for the first time both Petrogale concinna and Petrogale purpureicollis. Four distinct lineages were identified, (1) the brachyotis group, (2) Petrogale persephone, (3) Petrogale xanthopus and (4) the lateralis-penicillata group. Three of these lineages include taxa with the ancestral karyotype (2n = 22). Paraphyletic relationships within the brachyotis group indicate the need for a focused phylogeographic study. There was support for P. purpureicollis being reinstated as a full species and P. concinna being placed within Petrogale rather than in the monotypic genus Peradorcas. Bayesian analyses of divergence times suggest that episodes of diversification commenced in the late Miocene-Pliocene and continued throughout the Pleistocene. Ancestral state reconstructions suggest that Petrogale originated in a mesic environment and dispersed into more arid environments, events that correlate with the timing of radiations in other arid zone vertebrate taxa across Australia. Crown Copyright (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anaemia in pregnant women before and after the mandatory fortification of wheat and corn flours with iron

Objective: To estimate the frequency of anaemia in pregnant women before and after the fortification of flours with Fe. Design: Retrospective study developed from secondary data obtained from medical records. Setting: Two health units in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Subjects: Socio-economic, demographic, obstetric and Hb concentration data were collected of 778 pregnant women attending prenatal care. Two study groups were created: the first referred to the period before fortification (G1, n 391), including women whose parturition happened before June 2004; and the second referred to the period after fortification (G2, n 387), including women whose last menstrual cycle happened after June 2005. The Hb cut-off point adopted for anaemia diagnosis was <11.0 g/dl. Results: In linear regression models, when Hb concentration was expressed as a dependent variable, women in G2 presented Hb concentration 0.26 g/dl and 0.36 g/dl higher during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy, respectively, compared with G1. In logistic regression models where the dependent variable was anaemia during the second and third trimesters, it was verified that being a member of G2 was a protective factor against anaemia in the third trimester. Regarding the presence of anaemia at any gestational moment, it was verified that being a member of G2 represented a protective factor against anaemia during pregnancy. Conclusions: Results indicate the protective effect of the fortification of flours with Fe in the fight against gestational anaemia, contributing to prevention and control of this nutritional disorder among pregnant women.