Using variable speed limits for motorway off-ramp queue protection

Motorway off-ramps are a significant source of traffic congestion and collisions. Heavy diverging traffic to off-ramps slows down the mainline traffic speed. When the off-ramp queue spillbacks onto the mainline, it leads to a major breakdown of the motorway capacity and a significant threat to the traffic safety. This paper proposes using Variable Speed Limits (VSL) for protection of the motorway off-ramp queue and thus to promote safety in congested diverging areas. To support timely activation of VSL in advance of queue spillover, a proactive control strategy is proposed based on a real-time off-ramp queue estimation and prediction. This process determines the estimated queue size in the near-term future, on which the decision to change speed limits is made. VSL can effectively slow down traffic as it is mandatory that drivers follow the changed speed limits. A collateral benefit of VSL is its potential effect on drivers making them more attentive to the surrounding traffic conditions, and prepared for a sudden braking of the leading car. This paper analyses and quantifies these impacts and potential benefits of VSL on traffic safety and efficiency using the microsimulation approach.

Empirical evaluation of alternative approaches in identifying crash hot spots

This study proposes a framework of a model-based hot spot identification method by applying full Bayes (FB) technique. In comparison with the state-of-the-art approach [i.e., empirical Bayes method (EB)], the advantage of the FB method is the capability to seamlessly integrate prior information and all available data into posterior distributions on which various ranking criteria could be based. With intersection crash data collected in Singapore, an empirical analysis was conducted to evaluate the following six approaches for hot spot identification: (a) naive ranking using raw crash data, (b) standard EB ranking, (c) FB ranking using a Poisson-gamma model, (d) FB ranking using a Poisson-lognormal model, (e) FB ranking using a hierarchical Poisson model, and (f) FB ranking using a hierarchical Poisson (AR-1) model. The results show that (a) when using the expected crash rate-related decision parameters, all model-based approaches perform significantly better in safety ranking than does the naive ranking method, and (b) the FB approach using hierarchical models significantly outperforms the standard EB approach in correctly identifying hazardous sites.

Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Manipulating task constraints to improve tactical knowledge and collective decision-making in rugby union

In team sports such as rugby union, a myriad of decisions and actions occur within the boundaries that compose the performance perceptual- motor workspace. The way that these performance boundaries constrain decision making and action has recently interested researchers and has involved developing an understanding of the concept of constraints. Considering team sports as complex dynamical systems, signifies that they are composed of multiple, independent agents (i.e. individual players) whose interactions are highly integrated. This level of complexity is characterized by the multiple ways that players in a rugby field can interact. It affords the emergence of rich patterns of behaviour, such as rucks, mauls, and collective tactical actions that emerge due to players’ adjustments to dynamically varying competition environments. During performance, the decisions and actions of each player are constrained by multiple causes (e.g. technical and tactical skills, emotional states, plans, thoughts, etc.) that generate multiple effects (e.g. to run or pass, to move forward to tackle or maintain position and drive the opponent to the line), a prime feature in a complex systems approach to team games performance (Bar- Yam, 2004). To establish a bridge between the complexity sciences and learning design in team sports like rugby union, the aim of practice sessions is to prepare players to pick up and explore the information available in the multiple constraints (i.e. the causes) that influence performance. Therefore, learning design in training sessions should be soundly based on the interactions amongst players (i.e.teammates and opponents) that will occur in rugby matches. To improve individual and collective decision making in rugby union, Passos and colleagues proposed in previous work a performer- environment interaction- based approach rather than a traditional performer- based approach (Passos, Araújo, Davids & Shuttleworth, 2008).

The ecological dynamics of decision-making in sailing

Competitive sailing is characterised by continuous interdependencies of decisions and actions. All actions imply a permanent monitoring of the environmental conditions, such as intensity and direction of the wind, sea characteristics, and the behaviour of the opponent sailors. These constraints on sailors’ behavior are in constant change implying continuous adjustments in sailors’ actions and decisions. Among the different parts of a regatta, tactics and strategy at the start are particularly relevant. Among coaches there is an adage that says that “the start is 50% of a regatta” (Houghton, 1984; Saltonstall, 1983/1986). Olympic sailing regattas are performed with boats of the same class, by one, two or three sailors, depending on the boat class. Normally before the start, sailors visit the racing venue and analyse wind and sea characteristics, in order to fine- tune their boats accordingly. Then, five minutes before the start, sailors initiate starting procedures in order to be in a favourable position at the starting line (at the “second zero”). This position is selected during the start period according to wind shifts tendencies and the actions of other boats (Figure 11.1). Only after the start signal can the boats cross the imaginary starting line between the race committee signal boat “A” and the pin end boat. The start takes place against the wind (upwind), and the boats start racing in the direction of mark 1. Based on the evaluation of the sea and wind characteristics (e.g. if the wind is stronger at a particular place on the course), sailors re- adjust their strategy for the regatta. This strategy may change during the regatta, according to wind changes and adversary actions. More to the point, strategic decisions constrain and are constrained by on- line decisions during the regatta.

Transforming beyond self: fluidity of parent identity in family decision-making

When a household welcomes a new infant a transformation occurs whereby household routines, values and decisions change. This research explores how decision-making is influenced by fluctuating identity subjectivities. We explore longitudinally, using a family identity framework, how the transitioning between self, couple and family self-identities influences the decisions made regarding social issues, in this case infant feeding. Results indicate that decision-making during a period of transformation is not straightforward, relying on a multiplicity of identities that are constantly renegotiated and dependent on other influences. Decisions made conform to the identity-construct-of-the-moment, but are fluid and subject to change, such that pinpointing causal pathways is inappropriate. Implications for influencing the consumption of social behaviors for consumer researchers are one size does not fit all and require an in-depth understanding of the fluidity of decision-making. Consequently, social marketing strategies need to be tailored to constructed identities and flexible across time to remain influential.

Decision Matrix Compared with Partnering Principles

The ideas for this CRC research project are based directly on Sidwell, Kennedy and Chan (2002). That research examined a number of case studies to identify the characteristics of successful projects. The findings were used to construct a matrix of best practice project delivery strategies. The purpose of this literature review is to test the decision matrix against established theory and best practice in the subject of construction project management.

Report on the Development and Validation of the Best Practice Decision Matrix

The Co-operative Research Centre for Construction Innovation (CRC-CI) is funding a project known as Value Alignment Process for Project Delivery. The project consists of a study of best practice project delivery and the development of a suite of products, resources and services to guide project teams towards the best procurement approach for a specific project or group of projects. These resources will be focused on promoting the principles that underlie best practice project delivery rather than simply identifying an off-the-shelf procurement system. This project builds on earlier work by Sidwell, Kennedy and Chan (2002), on re-engineering the construction delivery process, which developed a procurement framework in the form of a Decision Matrix

Procurement Case Study and Decision-making Strategies

Objectives The procurement research of Sydney Opera House FM Exemplar Project aims to develop innovative methods and guidelines for the procurement of FM services, applicable to iconic and / or performing arts centre facilities, or facilities with similar FM functions. The initial procurement report in June 2005 analysed the strategic objectives and operational requirements that provide ‘demand statements’ as evaluation criteria in the service procurement process. The subsequent interim procurement report in September 2005 discussed the elements contributing to the criteria for decision-making in the service procurement process. This procurement report concentrates on the research on procurement strategies and innovative methods using a case study approach. The objectives of this report are: • to investigate service procurement methods and process in iconic and/or performing arts centre facilities; • to showcase FM innovation in Sydney Opera House through a case study; • to establish a preliminary decision-making framework and guidelines for selection of appropriate FM procurement routes to provide a useful model for FM community. Findings Findings from this procurement research are presented as follows. • FM innovation and experience of Sydney Opera House • Innovative procurement methods and processes, drawn from a case study of Sydney Opera House as exemplar • An integrated performance framework to link maintenance service functions to high level organisational objective and strategies • Procurement methods and contract outcomes, focusing on building maintenance and cleaning services of Sydney Opera House • Multi-dimensional assessment of Service Providers • General decision-making strategies and guidelines for selection of appropriate FM procurement routes Further Research Whilst the Sydney Opera House case study emphasises the experience of Sydney Opera House, a study of procurement strategies and methods from published research and FM good practice will supply facilities managers with alternative procurement routes. Further research on the procurement theme will develop a final decision-making model for the procurement of FM services, drawn from the evaluation of the case study outcomes, as well as FM good practice and findings from current published research.

Investment decision framework for infrastructure asset management: a probability-based approach

Australia’s civil infrastructure assets of roads, bridges, railways, buildings and other structures are worth billions of dollars. Road assets alone are valued at around A$ 140 billion. As the condition of assets deteriorate over time, close to A$10 billion is spent annually in asset maintenance on Australia's roads, or the equivalent of A$27 million per day. To effectively manage road infrastructures, firstly, road agencies need to optimise the expenditure for asset data collection, but at the same time, not jeopardise the reliability in using the optimised data to predict maintenance and rehabilitation costs. Secondly, road agencies need to accurately predict the deterioration rates of infrastructures to reflect local conditions so that the budget estimates could be accurately estimated. And finally, the prediction of budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation must provide a certain degree of reliability. A procedure for assessing investment decision for road asset management has been developed. The procedure includes: • A methodology for optimising asset data collection; • A methodology for calibrating deterioration prediction models; • A methodology for assessing risk-adjusted estimates for life-cycle cost estimates. • A decision framework in the form of risk map

Nation & internation practices in decision support tools in road asset management

This document provides a review of international and national practices in investment decision support tools in road asset management. Efforts were concentrated on identifying analytic frameworks, evaluation methodologies and criteria adopted by current tools. Emphasis was also given to how current approaches support Triple Bottom Line decision-making. Benefit Cost Analysis and Multiple Criteria Analysis are principle methodologies in supporting decision-making in Road Asset Management. The complexity of the applications shows significant differences in international practices. There is continuing discussion amongst practitioners and researchers regarding to which one is more appropriate in supporting decision-making. It is suggested that the two approaches should be regarded as complementary instead of competitive means. Multiple Criteria Analysis may be particularly helpful in early stages of project development, say strategic planning. Benefit Cost Analysis is used most widely for project prioritisation and selecting the final project from amongst a set of alternatives. Benefit Cost Analysis approach is useful tool for investment decision-making from an economic perspective. An extension of the approach, which includes social and environmental externalities, is currently used in supporting Triple Bottom Line decision-making in the road sector. However, efforts should be given to several issues in the applications. First of all, there is a need to reach a degree of commonality on considering social and environmental externalities, which may be achieved by aggregating the best practices. At different decision-making level, the detail of consideration of the externalities should be different. It is intended to develop a generic framework to coordinate the range of existing practices. The standard framework will also be helpful in reducing double counting, which appears in some current practices. Cautions should also be given to the methods of determining the value of social and environmental externalities. A number of methods, such as market price, resource costs and Willingness to Pay, are found in the review. The use of unreasonable monetisation methods in some cases has discredited Benefit Cost Analysis in the eyes of decision makers and the public. Some social externalities, such as employment and regional economic impacts, are generally omitted in current practices. This is due to the lack of information and credible models. It may be appropriate to consider these externalities in qualitative forms in a Multiple Criteria Analysis. Consensus has been reached in considering noise and air pollution in international practices. However, Australia practices generally omitted these externalities. Equity is an important consideration in Road Asset Management. The considerations are either between regions, or social groups, such as income, age, gender, disable, etc. In current practice, there is not a well developed quantitative measure for equity issues. More research is needed to target this issue. Although Multiple Criteria Analysis has been used for decades, there is not a generally accepted framework in the choice of modelling methods and various externalities. The result is that different analysts are unlikely to reach consistent conclusions about a policy measure. In current practices, some favour using methods which are able to prioritise alternatives, such as Goal Programming, Goal Achievement Matrix, Analytic Hierarchy Process. The others just present various impacts to decision-makers to characterise the projects. Weighting and scoring system are critical in most Multiple Criteria Analysis. However, the processes of assessing weights and scores were criticised as highly arbitrary and subjective. It is essential that the process should be as transparent as possible. Obtaining weights and scores by consulting local communities is a common practice, but is likely to result in bias towards local interests. Interactive approach has the advantage in helping decision-makers elaborating their preferences. However, computation burden may result in lose of interests of decision-makers during the solution process of a large-scale problem, say a large state road network. Current practices tend to use cardinal or ordinal scales in measure in non-monetised externalities. Distorted valuations can occur where variables measured in physical units, are converted to scales. For example, decibels of noise converts to a scale of -4 to +4 with a linear transformation, the difference between 3 and 4 represents a far greater increase in discomfort to people than the increase from 0 to 1. It is suggested to assign different weights to individual score. Due to overlapped goals, the problem of double counting also appears in some of Multiple Criteria Analysis. The situation can be improved by carefully selecting and defining investment goals and criteria. Other issues, such as the treatment of time effect, incorporating risk and uncertainty, have been given scant attention in current practices. This report suggested establishing a common analytic framework to deal with these issues.

Strategy for the development of investment decision-making framework for road asset management for queensland department of main roads

The aim of this project is to develop a systematic investment decision-making framework for infrastructure asset management by incorporation economic justification, social and environmental consideration in the decision-making process. This project assesses the factors that are expected to provide significant impacts on the variability of expenditures. A procedure for assessing risk and reliability for project investment appraisals will be developed. The project investigates public perception, social and environmental impacts on road infrastructure investment. This research will contribute to the debate about how important social and environmental issues should be incorporated into the investment decision-making process for infrastructure asset management.