Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences


Autoria(s): Pielke, Roger A.; Conant, Richard T.
Data(s)

2003

Resumo

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Formato

application/pdf

Identificador

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/37782/

Publicador

Ecological Society of America

Relação

http://eprints.qut.edu.au/37782/1/37782.pdf

DOI:10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084

Pielke, Roger A. & Conant, Richard T. (2003) Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences. Ecology, 84(6), pp. 1351-1358.

Direitos

Copyright 2003 Ecological Society of America

Fonte

Institute for Sustainable Resources

Tipo

Journal Article