The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0909, September 2009: Presidents Message

President’s Message Hello fellow AITPM members, A few weeks have now passed since our 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, which was held at the Adelaide Convention Centre from 5 to 7 August. I personally had a most enjoyable and enriching time at the Conference and felt these same “vibes” all around me. Top marks go to the South Australia organising committee, convened by Andrew Leedham, for their dedication to this our flagship event for the year. I could go on to cite my highlights but there were too many to give due diligence here. I had a number of official functions to perform at the Conference, but one in particular worth mentioning was being interviewed by radio stations 5AA, the main news/talk commercial broadcaster in Adelaide, and 891 ABC Adelaide. All interviewers were focussed on the issue of congestion charging, which is interesting in its emergence as a public conversation piece. My main responses focussed on the importance of providing alternatives for travel to the motorist otherwise being charged by a scheme, if and when decisions were made to implement congestion charging. I found that these opportunities to present AITPM as a professional peak body were very fruitful. The Queensland organising committee is now in full swing organising the 2010 AITPM National Conference, What’s New?, so please keep a lookout for related content. You’ll also find within this edition a transcript of my President’s Report to the 2009 AITPM National Annual General Meeting, which was held during the Adelaide Conference. Best regards to all, Jon Bunker

AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0911, November 2009 : President's Message

President’s Report Hello fellow AITPM members, It is interesting to follow the news at present, where transport costs are getting a significant airing. Treasury Secretary Dr Ken Henry has enunciated something Australians may have considered extremely radical just a few years back, but in the present time appears to quite a few to be a realistic alternative. That being a rethink of the way we are charged for using our vehicles. It appears that serious consideration is being given to congestion charging, perhaps in place at least to some extent, of fuel excise. As a transport professional I am pleased that the debate has elevated to the national level, and would look forward that AITPM might contribute appropriately to it. As a motorist though, I naturally have my concerns about being hit in the hip pocket. Not that I actually drive during congested periods very much. I am fortunate to live five minutes either side of two well serviced bus corridors, one of which will eventually become a busway, and work in the central business district, which is hub from all spokes in Brisbane. As such, bus and foot are my preferred commute modes. Ah but I should not gloat, as my smart card fare is about to increase by 20 percent in the New Year! And if the newspapers are to be believed, further substantial increments are proposed over the coming few years. This is reported to recoup some more of the costs of actually providing the quality public transport system that we enjoy in our region. So I expect it will be very interesting to see how transport economics will play out in reality in the coming few years, and how governments cater to Australians who either cannot afford substantial increases in transport costs or have no viable alternatives to those facilities whose costs will increase. The 2010 AITPM National Conference, “What’s New?”, still has the opportunity for authors to submit an abstract for consideration so please consider how you might contribute to the event. Best regards to all, Jon Bunker

The Brisbane Cordon scheme : part A - preliminary investigation

It could be said that road congestion is one of the most significant problems within any modern metropolitan area. For several decades now, around the globe, congestion in metropolitan areas has been worsening for two main reasons. Firstly, road congestion has significantly increased due to a higher demand for road space because of growth in populations, economic activity and incomes (Hensher & Puckett, 2007). This factor, in conjunction with a significant lack of investment in new road and public transport infrastructure, has seen the road network capacities of cities exceeded by traffic volumes and thus, resulted in increased traffic congestion. This relentless increase in road traffic congestion has resulted in a dramatic increase in costs for both the road users and ultimately the metropolitan areas concerned (Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, 2007). In response to this issue, several major cities around the world, including London, Stockholm and Singapore, have implemented congestion-charging schemes in order to combat the effects of road congestion. A congestion-charging scheme provides a mechanism for regulating traffic flows into the congested areas of a city, whilst simultaneously generating public revenue that can be used to improve both the public transport and road networks of the region. The aim of this paper was to assess the concept of congestion-charging, whilst reflecting on the experiences of various cities that have already implemented such systems. The findings from this paper have been used to inform the design of a congestion-charging scheme for the city of Brisbane in Australia in a supplementary study (Whitehead, Bunker, & Chung, 2011). The first section of this paper examines the background to road congestion; the theory behind different congestion-charging schemes; and the various technologies involved with the concept. The second section of this paper details the experiences, in relation to implementing a congestion-charging scheme, from the city of Stockholm in Sweden. This research has been crucial in forming a list of recommendations and lessons learnt for the design of a congestion-charging scheme in Australia. It is these recommendations that directly inform the proposed design of the Brisbane Cordon Scheme detailed in Whitehead et al. (2011).

The Brisbane Cordon scheme : part B - investigation into feasibility and effects

As detailed in Whitehead, Bunker and Chung (2011), a congestion-charging scheme provides a mechanism to combat congestion whilst simultaneously generating revenue to improve both the road and public transport networks. The aim of this paper is to assess the feasibility of implementing a congestion-charging scheme in the city of Brisbane in Australia and determine the potential effects of this initiative. In order to so, a congestion-charging scheme was designed for Brisbane and modelled using the Brisbane Strategic Transport Model with a base line year of 2026. This paper argues that the implementation of this initiative would prove to be effective in reducing the cities road congestion and increasing the overall sustainability of the region.

Arterial traffic congestion analysis using Bluetooth duration data

The aim of this study is to assess the potential use of Bluetooth data for traffic monitoring of arterial road networks. Bluetooth data provides the direct measurement of travel time between pairs of scanners, and intensive research has been reported on this topic. Bluetooth data includes “Duration” data, which represents the time spent by Bluetooth devices to pass through the detection range of Bluetooth scanners. If the scanners are located at signalised intersections, this Duration can be related to intersection performance, and hence represents valuable information for traffic monitoring. However the use of Duration has been ignored in previous analyses. In this study, the Duration data as well as travel time data is analysed to capture the traffic condition of a main arterial route in Brisbane. The data consists of one week of Bluetooth data provided by Brisbane City Council. As well, micro simulation analysis is conducted to further investigate the properties of Duration. The results reveal characteristics of Duration, and address future research needs to utilise this valuable data source.

Optimal planning of electric-vehicle charging stations in distribution systems

With the progressive exhaustion of fossil energy and the enhanced awareness of environmental protection, more attention is being paid to electric vehicles (EVs). Inappropriate siting and sizing of EV charging stations could have negative effects on the development of EVs, the layout of the city traffic network, and the convenience of EVs' drivers, and lead to an increase in network losses and a degradation in voltage profiles at some nodes. Given this background, the optimal sites of EV charging stations are first identified by a two-step screening method with environmental factors and service radius of EV charging stations considered. Then, a mathematical model for the optimal sizing of EV charging stations is developed with the minimization of total cost associated with EV charging stations to be planned as the objective function and solved by a modified primal-dual interior point algorithm (MPDIPA). Finally, simulation results of the IEEE 123-node test feeder have demonstrated that the developed model and method cannot only attain the reasonable planning scheme of EV charging stations, but also reduce the network loss and improve the voltage profile.

Prosecutorial discretion in assisted dying in Canada : a proposal for charging guidelines

An Expert Panel of the Royal Society of Canada and a Select Committee of the Québec National Assembly both recently recommended the issuance of permissive guidelines for the exercise of prosecutorial discretion on voluntary euthanasia and assisted suicide and “medical aid in dying” respectively. It seems timely, therefore, to propose a set of offence-specific guidelines for how prosecutorial discretion should be exercised in cases of voluntary euthanasia and assisted suicide in Canadian provinces and territories. We take as our starting point the only existing guidelines of this sort currently in force in the world (i.e. the British Columbia Guidelines, and the England and Wales Guidelines). In light of certain concerns we have with these guidelines, we outline an approach to constructing guidelines for Canadian jurisdictions that begins with identifying three guiding principles we argue are appropriate for this purpose (respect for autonomy, the need for high-quality prosecutorial decision making, and the importance of public confidence in that decision making), and ends with a concrete and detailed set of proposed guidelines. The paper is consistent with, but also extends, the work of the Royal Society of Canada Expert Panel on End of Life Decision Making. Un panel d’expert de la Société Royale du Canada et une Commission spéciale de l’Assemblée nationale du Québec ont tous les deux récemment recommandé que soit émises des directives permettant exercice d’un pouvoir de poursuite discrétionnaire concernant l’euthanasie et le suicide assisté et « l’assistance médicale pour mourir », respectivement. Il semble donc à propos de proposer une série de directives spécifiques aux offenses sur la façon dont le pouvoir de poursuite discrétionnaire dans les territoires et provinces canadiennes serait appliqué dans les cas d’euthanasie et de suicide assisté. Nous avons pris comme point de départ les seules directives de la sorte existant déjà (c’est-à-dire celle de la Colombie-Britannique et de l’Angleterre et du Pays de Galles). Par contre, compte tenu de certaines de nos réserves concernant ces directives, nous avons ensuite établi les grandes lignes d’une approche permettant de mettre sur pied des directives pour les juridictions canadiennes, qui débute par l’identification de trois principes de base qui sont selon nous appropriées à cette fin (respect de l’autonomie, besoin pour une grande qualité de prise de prise de décision du poursuivant et la confiance du public envers cette prise de décision) pour se terminer par une série de directives concrètes et détaillées. Le présent document est compatible avec le travail de la Société royale du Canada tout en en augmentant la portée.

User facilitated congestion and attack mitigation

The IEEE Wireless LAN standard has been a true success story by enabling convenient, efficient and low-cost access to broadband networks for both private and professional use. However, the increasing density and uncoordinated operation of wireless access points, combined with constantly growing traffic demands have started hurting the users' quality of experience. On the other hand, the emerging ubiquity of wireless access has placed it at the center of attention for network attacks, which not only raises users' concerns on security but also indirectly affects connection quality due to proactive measures against security attacks. In this work, we introduce an integrated solution to congestion avoidance and attack mitigation problems through cooperation among wireless access points. The proposed solution implements a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) as an intelligent distributed control system. By successfully differentiating resource hampering attacks from overload cases, the control system takes an appropriate action in each detected anomaly case without disturbing the quality of service for end users. The proposed solution is fully implemented on a small-scale testbed, on which we present our observations and demonstrate the effectiveness of the system to detect and alleviate both attack and congestion situations.

Public acceptance towards congestion charge : a case study of Brisbane

This paper investigates public acceptance towards congestion charge in Australia by taking Brisbane as a case study. Public acceptance to congestion charge has often been investigated in the literature. However, few were in the context of an Australian city. This paper fills the gap. A face-to-face survey was conducted to solicit public opinions on the congestion charge, should a congestion charge scheme be implemented in the Brisbane City area. The survey data were analysed to pinpoint important factors relevant to people’s attitudes towards congestion charge and to measure their relationships. Main findings from our analysis are: (1) the residents’ attitudes towards congestion charge differ by genders and by user groups of transport modes; (2) for each of the three groups (i.e., the auto users, the transit riders, and the whole participants), a positive and stable correlation was found between a participant’s attitude towards congestion charge and the effectiveness of congestion charge on reducing traffic congestion. A negative and stable correlation was also found for all three groups between a participant’s attitude towards congestion charge and congestion charge’s negative impact on the attractiveness of working in the city; (3) the auto users tended to be more sceptical about the service capacity of existing transit systems in coping with extra passengers induced by the implementation of congestion charge; and (4) for people with high income, introducing the congestion charge may have no impact on their travelling to the city.

Strategies for rapid congestion recovery using ramp metering

This research investigated strategies for motorway congestion management from a different angle: that is, how to quickly recover motorway from congestion at the end of peak hours, given congestion cannot be eliminated due to excessive demand during the long peak hours nowadays. The project developed a zone recovery strategy using ramp metering for rapid congestion recovery, and a serious of traffic simulation investigations were included to evaluate the developed strategy. The results, from both microscopic and macroscopic simulation, demonstrated the effectiveness of the zone recovery strategy.

On equilibrium states and dust charging in dusty plasmas

The dust-charge variation process is revisited, accounting for the background density variation associated with electron capture and release by the dust grains. It appears possible to maintain overall charge neutrality in the plasma without any external particle source or sink. It is shown that if the dust charge and density are sufficiently high, the effect of the background electron density variation on dust-charge relaxation is important. The equilibrium dust charge and its rate of variation are obtained for dusty plasmas subject to strong UV irradiation. The latter releases photoelectrons from the dust surface and can significantly affect the equilibrium dust charge, its variation rate, as well as the overall charge neutrality in the plasma.

Effect of ambipolar fluxes on nanoparticle charging in low-pressure glow discharges

The effect of ambipolar fluxes on nanoparticle charging in a typical low-pressure parallel-plate glow discharge is considered. It is shown that the equilibrium values of the nanoparticle charge in the plasma bulk and near-electrode areas are strongly affected by the ratio S ath i of the ambipolar flux and the ion thermal velocities. Under typical experimental conditions the above ratio is neither S ath i≪ 1 nor S ath i≫1, which often renders the commonly used approximations of the purely thermal or "ion wind" ion charging currents inaccurate. By using the general approximation for the ambipolar drift-affected ion flux on the nanoparticle surface, it appears possible to obtain more accurate values of the nanoparticle charge that usually deviate within 10-25 % from the values obtained without a proper accounting for the ambipolar ion fluxes. The implications of the results obtained for glow discharge modeling and nanoparticle manipulation in low-pressure plasmas are discussed.

Charging and trapping of macroparticles in near-electrode regions of fluorocarbon plasmas with negative ions

Charging and trapping of macroparticles in the near-electrode region of fluorocarbon etching plasmas with negative ions is considered. The equilibrium charge and forces on particles are computed as a function of the local position in the plasma presheath and sheath. The ionic composition of the plasma corresponds to the etching experiments in 2.45 GHz surface-wave sustained and 13.56 MHz inductively coupled C4F8+Ar plasmas. It is shown that despite negligible negative ion currents collected by the particles, the negative fluorine ions affect the charging and trapping of particulates through modification of the sheath/presheath structure.