Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods for complex process models

Many industrial processes and systems can be modelled mathematically by a set of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs). Finding a solution to such a PDF model is essential for system design, simulation, and process control purpose. However, major difficulties appear when solving PDEs with singularity. Traditional numerical methods, such as finite difference, finite element, and polynomial based orthogonal collocation, not only have limitations to fully capture the process dynamics but also demand enormous computation power due to the large number of elements or mesh points for accommodation of sharp variations. To tackle this challenging problem, wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods have been recently developed with successful applications to a fixedbed adsorption column model. Our investigation has shown that recent advances in wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods have the potential to be adopted for solving more complicated dynamic system models. This chapter will highlight the successful applications of these new methods in solving complex models of simulated-moving-bed (SMB) chromatographic processes. A SMB process is a distributed parameter system and can be mathematically described by a set of partial/ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations. These equations are highly coupled; experience wave propagations with steep front, and require significant numerical effort to solve. To demonstrate the numerical computing power of the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods, a single column chromatographic process modelled by a Transport-Dispersive-Equilibrium linear model is investigated first. Numerical solutions from the upwind-1 finite difference, wavelet-collocation, and high resolution methods are evaluated by quantitative comparisons with the analytical solution for a range of Peclet numbers. After that, the advantages of the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods are further demonstrated through applications to a dynamic SMB model for an enantiomers separation process. This research has revealed that for a PDE system with a low Peclet number, all existing numerical methods work well, but the upwind finite difference method consumes the most time for the same degree of accuracy of the numerical solution. The high resolution method provides an accurate numerical solution for a PDE system with a medium Peclet number. The wavelet collocation method is capable of catching up steep changes in the solution, and thus can be used for solving PDE models with high singularity. For the complex SMB system models under consideration, both the wavelet based approaches and high resolution methods are good candidates in terms of computation demand and prediction accuracy on the steep front. The high resolution methods have shown better stability in achieving steady state in the specific case studied in this Chapter.

Critical analysis of high particle number emissions from accelerating compressed natural gas buses

Compressed natural gas (CNG) engines are thought to be less harmful to the environment than conventional diesel engines, especially in terms of particle emissions. Although, this is true with respect to particulate matter (PM) emissions, results of particle number (PN) emission comparisons have been inconclusive. In this study, results of on-road and dynamometer studies of buses were used to derive several important conclusions. We show that, although PN emissions from CNG buses are significantly lower than from diesel buses at low engine power, they become comparable at high power. For diesel buses, PN emissions are not significantly different between acceleration and operation at steady maximum power. However, the corresponding PN emissions from CNG buses when accelerating are an order of magnitude greater than when operating at steady maximum power. During acceleration under heavy load, PN emissions from CNG buses are an order of magnitude higher than from diesel buses. The particles emitted from CNG buses are too small to contribute to PM10 emissions or contribute to a reduction of visibility, and may consist of semivolatile nanoparticles.

Use of lifts and refuge floors for fire evacuation in high rise apartment buildings

If current population and accommodation trends continue, Australian cities will, in the future, have noticeable numbers of apartment buildings over 60 storeys high. With an aging population it follows that a significant proportion of those occupying these buildings will be senior citizens, many of whom will have some form of disability. For these occupants a fire emergency in a high rise building presents a serious problem. Currently lifts cannot be used for evacuation and going down 60 storeys in a fire isolated staircase would be physically impossible for many. Therefore, for many, the temptation to remain in one’s unit will be very strong. With an awareness of this behaviour trend in older residents, many researchers have, in recent years, explored the possible wider use of lifts in a fire emergency. So far the use of lifts for evacuation has been approved for a small number of buildings but wide acceptance of this solution is still to be achieved. This paper concludes that even in high-rise apartment buildings where lifts are approved for evacuation, architects should design the building with alternative evacuation routes and provide suitable safe refuge areas for those who cannot use the stairs when the lifts are unavailable.

Grade A Taipei junior high school principals’ self-reported leadership practices

The principal’s leadership and curriculum development are considered the core elements for creating a high performing junior high school. In Taiwan, mathematics curriculum reform has been an ongoing topic since 1994. The pedagogy, classroom interactions, and the underlying philosophy of mathematics education have varied with different versions of guidelines. These changes inevitably increase the requirement for principals’ leadership in order to effectively implement the curriculum reform. Principals’ leadership is essential to the success of the implementation in their school. This study aimed to explore and identify the leadership of junior high school principals whose schools had been judged by the Taipei City Government as Grade A junior high schools. Principals’ implementations of the reformed mathematics curriculum were used as examples to generate insights of their leadership. This study drew upon a multiple-case study approach. Data were collected from interviews, observations, and documentations. Bass and Avolio’s (1997) full range leadership theory provided a structure for gaining insight into these principals’ leadership practices. Five Grade A Taipei junior high school principals participated and shared their leadership concepts and experiences. Findings revealed that the leadership preferences of the five principles varied considerably. Management by exception-active, contingent reward, individualised consideration, and idealised influence were Grade A Taipei junior high school principals’ preferred leadership practices. In addition, principals’ leadership strategies associated with these practices were identified. These principals had adopted a range of leadership strategies according to the staff and school needs. Results of this study have implications for both Taiwanese principals and education departments. Principals can enhance their leadership by gaining more understanding about the Grade A principals’ leadership practices and strategies. Taiwanese education departments can improve school leadership training programs by focusing on these practices and strategies, which may also lead to more effective strategies for implementing national curriculum reform.