Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Torsional Interaction Studies on a Power System Compensated by SSSC and Fixed Capacitor

In this paper, a static synchronous series compensator (SSSC), along with a fixed capacitor, is used to avoid torsional mode instability in a series compensated transmission system. A 48-step harmonic neutralized inverter is used for the realization of the SSSC. The system under consideration is the IEEE first benchmark model on SSR analysis. The system stability is studied both through eigenvalue analysis and EMTDC/PSCAD simulation studies. It is shown that the combination of the SSSC and the fixed capacitor improves the synchronizing power coefficient. The presence of the fixed capacitor ensures increased damping of small signal oscillations. At higher levels of fixed capacitor compensation, a damping controller is required to stabilize the torsional modes of SSR.