Early life predictors of preschool overweight and obesity : a case–control study in Sri Lanka

Background Childhood obesity increases the risk of obesity in adulthood and is associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our aim was to assess the early life risk factors associated with overweight and obesity among preschool children. Methods In this case–control study, from the 1087 preschool children measured, age, sex and ethnicity matched 71 cases and 71 controls were recruited. Cases and controls were defined according to the WHO 2006 growth standards. The birth and growth characteristics were extracted from the child health development records. Infant feeding practices and maternal factors were obtained from the mother. Rapid weight gain was defined as an increase in weight-for-age Z score (WHO standards) above 0.67 SD from birth to 2 years. The magnitude and significant difference in mean values of the variables associated with overweight and obesity were evaluated using logistic regressions and paired t-test, respectively. Results Cases had significantly shorter duration (months) of breastfeeding (19.4, 24.6, p = 0.003), and smaller duration (months) of exclusive breastfeeding (3.7, 5.1, p = 0.001) compared to controls. Rapid weight gain (OR = 6.3, 95% CI = 2.04–19.49), first born status (OR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.17-10.91) and pre-pregnancy obesity (OR = 4.0, 95% CI = 1.46-10.76) were positively associated with overweight and obesity. Breastfeeding more than 2 years (OR = 0.2, 95% CI = 0.06-0.57) was negatively associated with overweight and obesity. Conclusion Rapid weight gain within first two years, first–born status and pre-pregnancy obesity of the mother contributed for preschool obesity. Our results suggest that intervention may be indicated earlier in infancy and during the toddler and preschool years to tackle the increasing prevalence of obesity.

Donating blood and organs : using an extended theory of planned behavior perspective to identify similarities and differences in individual motivations to donate

Due to the critical shortage and continued need of blood and organ donations (ODs), research exploring similarities and differences in the motivational determinants of these behaviors is needed. In a sample of 258 university students, we used a cross-sectional design to test the utility of an extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) including moral norm, self-identity and in-group altruism (family/close friends and ethnic group), to predict people’s blood and OD intentions. Overall, the extended TPB explained 77.0% and 74.6% of variance in blood and OD intentions, respectively. In regression analyses, common contributors to intentions across donation contexts were attitude, self-efficacy and self-identity. Normative influences varied with subjective norm as a significant predictor related to OD intentions but not blood donation intentions at the final step of regression analyses. Moral norm did not contribute significantly to blood or OD intentions. In-group altruism (family/close friends) was significantly related to OD intentions only in regressions. Future donation strategies should increase confidence to donate, foster a perception of self as the type of person who donates blood and/or organs, and address preferences to donate organs to in-group members only.

Physical activity promotion as a school priority : what do parents think?

The demands and responsibilities placed on schools in contemporary education systems are vast. However, with growing obesity levels and physical inactivity, the prevention of chronic disease has focused on youth populations, with schools playing the focal educative asset in this strategy. Parents play a decisive role in their child’s educational setting, and as fee and tax payers, are ultimately a consumer. Parents (82 males and 208 females) of secondary school children were recruited from three private (n=151) and two government schools (n=150) in Brisbane, Australia. The mean (standard deviation) age was 44.57 (6.21) years. Participants responded to a series of questions about physical activity at their child’s school, in addition to completing the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, frequency distributions and logistic regressions. Parents were deemed sufficiently physically active if they participated in at least 150 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity per week. Overall, 83 (59.7%) parents from private and 60 (50.8%) parents from government schools were deemed sufficiently physically active. Concerning whether physical activity promotion should be a priority at their child’s school, 111 (73.5%) parents from private schools either agreed or strongly agreed, as opposed to 97 (64.7%) parents from government schools. Logistic regressions indicated that the concept of physical activity promotion being prioritised at schools was dependent on whether the child attended a private school (OR =1.34, z = 2.30, p = 0.02), and whether the participant was sufficiently active (OR =.71, z = -2.48, p = 0.01). Physical activity promotion within schools may provide substantial future benefits on a population scale. The demands on schools may need to be addressed to meet the needs of students and the desires of their parents.

The epidemiology of basal cell carcinoma

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is a skin cancer of particular importance to the Australian community. Its rate of occurrence is highest in Queensland, where 1% to 2% of people are newly affected annually. This is an order of magnitude higher than corresponding incidence estimates in European and North American populations. Individuals with a sun-sensitive complexion are particularly susceptible because sun exposure is the single most important causative agent, as shown by the anatomic distribution of BCC which is in general consistent with the levels of sun exposure across body sites. A distinguishing feature of BCC is the occurrence of multiple primary tumours within individuals, synchronously or over time, and their diagnosis and treatment costs contribute substantially to the major public health burden caused by BCC. A primary knowledge gap about BCC pathogenesis however was an understanding of the true frequency of multiple BCC occurrences and their body distribution, and why a proportion of people do develop more than one BCC in their life. This research project sought to address this gap under an overarching research aim to better understand the detailed epidemiology of BCC with the ultimate goal of reducing the burden of this skin cancer through prevention. The particular aim was to document prospectively the rate of BCC occurrence and its associations with constitutional and environmental (solar) factors, all the while paying special attention to persons affected by more than one BCC. The study built on previous findings and recent developments in the field but set out to confirm and extend these and propose more adequate theories about the complex epidemiology of this cancer. Addressing these goals required a new approach to researching basal cell carcinoma, due to the need to account for the phenomenon of multiple incident BCCs per person. This was enabled by a 20 year community-based study of skin cancer in Australians that provided the methodological foundation for this thesis. Study participants were originally randomly selected in 1986 from the electoral register of all adult residents of the subtropical township of Nambour in Queensland, Australia. On various occasions during the study, participants were fully examined by dermatologists who documented cumulative photodamage as well as skin cancers. Participants completed standard questionnaires about skin cancer-related factors, and consented to have any diagnosed skin cancers notified to the investigators by regional pathology laboratories in Queensland. These methods allowed 100% ascertainment of histologically confirmed BCCs in this study population. 1339 participants had complete follow-up to the end of 2007. Statistical analyses in this thesis were carried out using SAS and SUDAAN statistical software packages. Modelling methods, including multivariate logistic regressions, allowed for repeated measures in terms of multiple BCCs per person. This innovative approach gave new findings on two levels, presented in five chapters as scientific papers: 1. Incidence of basal cell carcinoma multiplicity and detailed anatomic distribution: longitudinal study of an Australian population The incidence of people affected multiple times by BCC was 705 per 100,000 person years compared to an incidence rate of people singly affected of 935 per 100,000 person years. Among multiply and singly affected persons alike, site-specific BCC incidence rates were far highest on facial subsites, followed by upper limbs, trunk, and then lower limbs 2. Melanocytic nevi and basal cell carcinoma: is there an association? BCC risk was significantly increased in those with forearm nevi (Odds Ratios (OR) 1.43, 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 1.09-1.89) compared to people without forearm nevi, especially among those who spent their time mainly outdoors (OR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3) compared to those who spent their time mainly indoors. Nevi on the back were not associated with BCC. 3. Clinical signs of photodamage are associated with basal cell carcinoma multiplicity and site: a 16-year longitudinal study Over a 16-year follow-up period, 58% of people affected by BCC developed more than one BCC. Among these people 60% developed BCCs across different anatomic sites. Participants with high numbers of solar keratoses, compared to people without solar keratoses, were most likely to experience the highest BCC counts overall (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-13.5). Occurrences of BCC on the trunk (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-7.6) and on the limbs (OR 3.7, 95%CI 2.0-7.0) were strongly associated with high numbers of solar keratoses on these sites. 4. Occurrence and determinants of basal cell carcinoma by histological subtype in an Australian community Among 1202 BCCs, 77% had a single growth pattern and 23% were of mixed histological composition. Among all BCCs the nodular followed by the superficial growth patterns were commonest. Risk of nodular and superficial BCCs on the head was raised if 5 or more solar keratoses were present on the face (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.2-2.7 and OR 4.5, 95%CI 2.1-9.7 respectively) and similarly on the trunk in the presence of multiple solar keratoses on the trunk (OR 4.2, 95%CI 1.5-11.9 and OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.1-4.4 respectively). 5. Basal cell carcinoma and measures of cumulative sun exposure: an Australian longitudinal community-based study Dermal elastosis was more likely to be seen adjacent to head and neck BCCs than trunk BCCs (p=0.01). Severity of dermal elastosis increased on each site with increasing clinical signs of cutaneous sun damage on that site. BCCs that occurred without perilesional elastosis per se, were always found in an anatomic region with signs of photodamage. This thesis thus has identified the magnitude of the burden of multiple BCCs. It does not support the view that people affected by more than one BCC represent a distinct group of people who are prone to BCCs on certain body sites. The results also demonstrate that BCCs regardless of site, histology or order of occurrence are strongly associated with cumulative sun exposure causing photodamage to the skin, and hence challenge the view that BCCs occurring on body sites with typically low opportunities for sun exposure or of the superficial growth pattern are different in their association with the sun from those on typically sun-exposed sites, or nodular BCCs, respectively. Through dissemination in the scientific and medical literature, and to the community at large, these findings can ultimately assist in the primary and secondary prevention of BCC, perhaps especially in high-risk populations.

Analysis of temporary traffic control cost items in transportation construction bidding process

Temporary Traffic Control Plans (TCP’s), which provide construction phasing to maintain traffic during construction operations, are integral component of highway construction project design. Using the initial design, designers develop estimated quantities for the required TCP devices that become the basis for bids submitted by highway contractors. However, actual as-built quantities are often significantly different from the engineer’s original estimate. The total cost of TCP phasing on highway construction projects amounts to 6–10% of the total construction cost. Variations between engineer estimated quantities and final quantities contribute to reduced cost control, increased chances of cost related litigations, and bid rankings and selection. Statistical analyses of over 2000 highway construction projects were performed to determine the sources of variation, which later were used as the basis of development for an automated-hybrid prediction model that uses multiple regressions and heuristic rules to provide accurate TCP quantities and costs. The predictive accuracy of the model developed was demonstrated through several case studies.

Entrepreneurial network development as a sign of business emergence

This study aims to explain the entrepreneurial processes as developments of entrepreneurial networks. As a theoretical framework, this study adopts the theory of experimentally organized economy and competence blocs. As suggested by this theory, entrepreneurs select profitable innovations and commercialise them. Through logistic regressions on the subjective and objective dependent variables, we find that nascent firms’ various activities to network customers, innovators, investors, and employees are positively associated with the business emergence. This study identifies the roles of entrepreneurs and the other actors in the entrepreneurial processes.

Semiparametric estimation of count regression models

This paper develops a semiparametric estimation approach for mixed count regression models based on series expansion for the unknown density of the unobserved heterogeneity. We use the generalized Laguerre series expansion around a gamma baseline density to model unobserved heterogeneity in a Poisson mixture model. We establish the consistency of the estimator and present a computational strategy to implement the proposed estimation techniques in the standard count model as well as in truncated, censored, and zero-inflated count regression models. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the finite sample behavior of the estimator is quite good. The paper applies the method to a model of individual shopping behavior. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

The Australian general public's perceptions of having a personally controlled electronic health record (PCEHR)

Objective The move internationally by Governments and other health providers to encourage patients to have their own electronic personal health record (e-PHRs) is growing exponentially. In Australia the initiative for a personally controlled electronic health record (known as PCEHR) is directed towards the public at large. The first objective of this study then, is to examine how individuals in the general population perceive the promoted idea of having a PCEHR. The second objective is to extend research on applying a theoretically derived consumer technology acceptance model to guide the research. Method An online survey was conducted to capture the perceptions and beliefs about having a PCEHR identified from technology acceptance models and extant literature. The survey was completed by 750 Queensland respondents, 97% of whom did not have a PCEHR at that time. The model was examined using exploratory factor analysis, regressions and mediation tests. Results Findings support eight of the 11 hypothesised relationships in the model. Perceived value and perceived risk were the two most important variables explaining attitude, with perceived usefulness and compatibility being weak but significant. The perception of risk was reduced through partial mediation from trust and privacy concerns. Additionally, web-self efficacy and ease of use partially mediate the relationship between attitude and intentions. Conclusions The findings represent a snapshot of the early stages of implementing this Australian initiative and captures the perceptions of Queenslanders who at present do not have a PCEHR. Findings show that while individuals appreciate the value of having this record, they do not appear to regard it as particularly useful at present, nor is it particularly compatible with their current engagement with e-services. Moreover, they will need to have any concerns about the risks alleviated, particularly through an increased sense of trust and reduction of privacy concerns. It is noted that although the respondents are non-adopters, they do not feel that they lack the necessary web skills to set up and use a PCEHR. To the best of our knowledge this is one of a very limited number of studies that examines a national level implementation of an e-PHR system, where take-up of the PCEHR is optional rather than a centralised, mandated requirement.

Explicating the role of sexual coercion and vulnerability: Alcohol expectancies in rape attributions

Despite evidence suggesting that alcohol expectancies may influence people’s rape perceptions, no study to date has measured context-specific expectancies comprehensively. This study represents an initial investigation of the role of sexual coercion and vulnerability alcohol expectancies in young Australian adults’ rape blame attributions. Using a vignette method, it was hypothesised that participants’ stronger expectancy endorsement would predict lesser perpetrator blame and greater victim blame. Participants (N = 210; 34.9% males; 18-25 years) read a hypothetical rape scenario and rated dimensions of blameworthiness attributed to the intoxicated sexual perpetrator and victim. Participants completed the Sexual Coercion and Sexual Vulnerability sub-scales of the Drinking Expectancy Sexual Vulnerabilities Questionnaire for the targets self, men, and women in addition to measures of traditional gender role attitudes and rape myth acceptance. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that, as expected, stronger sexual coercion expectancy predicted lower perpetrator blame and greater victim blame. Self-oriented expectancy predicted evaluations of the perpetrator whereas other-oriented expectancy predicted victim evaluations. These effects were robust after controlling for gender role attitudes and rape myth acceptance. Alcohol expectancies appear to be part of a network of beliefs and attitudes which perpetuate biased rape attributions and may be useful to challenge in altering rape perceptions.

Predicting reduced driver alertness on monotonous highways : a driving simulator study

Impaired driver alertness increases the likelihood of drivers’ making mistakes and reacting too late to unexpected events while driving. This is particularly a concern on monotonous roads, where a driver’s attention can decrease rapidly. While effective countermeasures do not currently exist, the development of in-vehicle sensors opens avenues for monitoring driving behavior in real-time. The aim of this study is to predict drivers’ level of alertness through surrogate measures collected from in-vehicle sensors. Electroencephalographic activity is used as a reference to evaluate alertness. Based on a sample of 25 drivers, data was collected in a driving simulator instrumented with an eye tracking system, a heart rate monitor and an electrodermal activity device. Various classification models were tested from linear regressions to Bayesians and data mining techniques. Results indicated that Neural Networks were the most efficient model in detecting lapses in alertness. Findings also show that reduced alertness can be predicted up to 5 minutes in advance with 90% accuracy, using surrogate measures such as time to line crossing, blink frequency and skin conductance level. Such a method could be used to warn drivers of their alertness level through the development of an in-vehicle device monitoring, in real-time, drivers' behavior on highways.

Effect of diabetes on amplitude of accommodation

Purpose: To determine the effect of Type 1 diabetes (DM1) on amplitude of accommodation. Method: There were 43 participants (33 ± 8 years) with DM1 and 32 (34 ± 8 years) age-balanced controls. Amplitude was measured objectively with a COAS wavefront aberrometer and subjectively with a Badal hand optometer. Results: Across both groups, objective amplitude was less than subjective amplitude by 1.4 ± 1.2 D. People with diabetes had lower objective (2.7±1.6 D) and subjective (4.0±1.7 D) amplitudes than people without diabetes (objective 4.1±2.1 D, subjective 5.6±2.1 D). For the DM1 group, the objective and subjective multivariate linear regressions were 7.1 – 0.097Age – 0.076DiabDur (R2 0.51) and 9.1 –0.103Age – 0.106DiabDur (R2 0.63), respectively. Conclusion: Objective and subjective techniques showed lowered amplitude of accommodation in DM1 participants compared with age-matched controls. Loss was affected strongly by duration of diabetes. People with diabetes will experience presbyopia earlier in life than people without diabetes.

Childhood atopic dermatitis : a cross-sectional study of relationships between child and parent factors, atopic dermatitis management, and disease severity

Background: Successful management of atopic dermatitis poses a significant and ongoing challenge to parents of affected children. Despite frequent reports of child behaviour problems and parenting difficulties, there is a paucity of literature examining relationships between child behaviour and parents' confidence and competence with treatment. Objectives: To examine relationships between child, parent, and family variables, parents' self-efficacy for managing atopic dermatitis, self-reported performance of management tasks, observed competence with providing treatment, and atopic dermatitis severity. Design: Cross-sectional study design. Participants A sample of 64 parent-child dyads was recruited from the dermatology clinic of a paediatric tertiary referral hospital in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Parents completed self-report questionnaires examining child behaviour, parents' adjustment, parenting conflict, parents' relationship satisfaction, and parents' self-efficacy and self-reported performance of key management tasks. Severity of atopic dermatitis was assessed using the Scoring Atopic Dermatitis index. A routine home treatment session was observed, and parents' competence in carrying out the child's treatment assessed. Results: Pearson's and Spearman's correlations identified significant relationships (p< .05) between parents' self-efficacy and disease severity, child behaviour difficulties, parent depression and stress, parenting conflict, and relationship satisfaction. There were also significant relationships between each of these variables and parents' self-reported performance of management tasks. More profound child behaviour difficulties were associated with more severe atopic dermatitis and greater parent stress. Using multiple linear regressions, significant proportions of variation in parents' self-efficacy and self-reported task performance were explained by child behaviour difficulties and parents' formal education. Self-efficacy emerged as a likely mediator for relationships between both child behaviour and parents' education, and self-reported task performance. Direct observation of treatment sessions revealed strong relationships between parents' treatment competence and parents' self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and self-reported task performance. Less competent task performance was also associated with greater parent-reported child behaviour difficulties, parent depression and stress, parenting conflict, and relationship dissatisfaction. Conclusion: This study revealed the importance of child behaviour to parents' confidence and practices in the context of atopic dermatitis management. Children with more severe atopic dermatitis are at risk of presenting with challenging behaviour problems and their parents struggle to manage the condition successfully.

Australian stock indexes and the four-factor model

Stock indexes are passive 'value-weighted' portfolios and should not have alphas which are significantly different from zero. If an index produces an insignificant alphan, then significant alphas for equity funds using this index can be attributed solely to manager performance. However, recent literature sugests that US Stock indexes can demonstrate significant alphas, which ultimately raise questions regarding equity fund manager performance in both the US and abroad. in this paper, we employ the Carhart four-factor model and newly available Asian-Pacific risk factors to generate alphas and risk factor loadings for eight Australian stock indexes from January 2004 to December 2012. We ifnd that the initial full sample period analysis does not provide indication of significant alphas in the indexes examined. However, by carrying out 36-month rolling regressions, we discover at least four significant alphas in seven of the eight indexes and factor loading variability. As previously reported in the US, this paper confirms similar issues with the four-factor model using Australian stock indexes and performance benchmarking. In effectively measuring Australian equity fund manager performance, it is therefore essential to evaluate a fund's alpha and risk factors relative to the alpha and risk factors of the appropriate benchmark index.

Are we there yet? Australian road safety targets and road traffic crash fatalities

Background Road safety targets are widely used and provide a basis for evaluating progress in road safety outcomes against a quantified goal. In Australia, a reduction in fatalities from road traffic crashes (RTCs) is a public policy objective: a national target of no more than 5.6 fatalities per 100,000 population by 2010 was set in 2001. The purpose of this paper is to examine the progress Australia and its states and territories have made in reducing RTC fatalities, and to estimate when the 2010 target may be reached by the jurisdictions. Methods Following a descriptive analysis, univariate time-series models estimate past trends in fatality rates over recent decades. Data for differing time periods are analysed and different trend specifications estimated. Preferred models were selected on the basis of statistical criteria and the period covered by the data. The results of preferred regressions are used to determine out-of-sample forecasts of when the national target may be attained by the jurisdictions. Though there are limitations with the time series approach used, inadequate data precluded the estimation of a full causal/structural model. Results Statistically significant reductions in fatality rates since 1971 were found for all jurisdictions with the national rate decreasing on average, 3% per year since 1992. However the gains have varied across time and space, with percent changes in fatality rates ranging from an 8% increase in New South Wales 1972-1981 to a 46% decrease in Queensland 1982-1991. Based on an estimate of past trends, it is possible that the target set for 2010 may not be reached nationally, until 2016. Unsurprisingly, the analysis indicated a range of outcomes for the respective state/territory jurisdictions though these results should be interpreted with caution due to different assumptions and length of data. Conclusions Results indicate that while Australia has been successful over recent decades in reducing RTC mortality, an important gap between aspirations and achievements remains. Moreover, unless there are fairly radical ("trend-breaking") changes in the factors that affect the incidence of RTC fatalities, deaths from RTCs are likely to remain above the national target in some areas of Australia, for years to come.

Back to normal: A retrospective, cross-sectional study of the multi-factorial determinants of normal birth in Queensland, Australia

Background Currently, care providers and policy-makers internationally are working to promote normal birth. In Australia, such initiatives are being implemented without any evidence of the prevalence or determinants of normal birth as a multidimensional construct. This study aimed to better understand the determinants of normal birth (defined as without induction of labour, epidural/spinal/general anaesthesia, forceps/vacuum, caesarean birth, or episiotomy) using secondary analyses of data from a population survey of women in Queensland, Australia. Methods Women who birthed in Queensland during a two-week period in 2009 were mailed a survey approximately three months after birth. Women (n=772) provided retrospective data on their pregnancy, labour and birth preferences and experiences, socio-demographic characteristics, and reproductive history. A series of logistic regressions were conducted to determine factors associated with having labour, having a vaginal birth, and having a normal birth. Findings Overall, 81.9% of women had labour, 66.4% had a vaginal birth, and 29.6% had a normal birth. After adjusting for other significant factors, women had significantly higher odds of having labour if they birthed in a public hospital and had a pre-existing preference for a vaginal birth. Of women who had labour, 80.8% had a vaginal birth. Women who had labour had significantly higher odds of having a vaginal birth if they attended antenatal classes, did not have continuous fetal monitoring, felt able to ‘take their time’ in labour, and had a pre-existing preference for a vaginal birth. Of women who had a vaginal birth, 44.7% had a normal birth. Women who had a vaginal birth had significantly higher odds of having a normal birth if they birthed in a public hospital, birthed outside regular business hours, had mobility in labour, did not have continuous fetal monitoring, and were non-supine during birth. Conclusions These findings provide a strong foundation on which to base resources aimed at increasing informed decision-making for maternity care consumers, providers, and policy-makers alike. Research to evaluate the impact of modifying key clinical practices (e.g., supporting women׳s mobility during labour, facilitating non-supine positioning during birth) on the likelihood of a normal birth is an important next step.