Methods to estimate the size and shape of the unaccommodated crystalline lens in vivo

Purpose. The purpose of this article was to present methods capable of estimating the size and shape of the human eye lens without resorting to phakometry or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Methods. Previously published biometry and phakometry data of 66 emmetropic eyes of 66 subjects (age range [18, 63] years, spherical equivalent range [−0.75, +0.75] D) were used to define multiple linear regressions for the radii of curvature and thickness of the lens, from which the lens refractive index could be derived. MRI biometry was also available for a subset of 30 subjects, from which regressions could be determined for the vertex radii of curvature, conic constants, equatorial diameter, volume, and surface area. All regressions were compared with the phakometry and MRI data; the radii of curvature regressions were also compared with a method proposed by Bennett and Royston et al. Results. The regressions were in good agreement with the original measurements. This was especially the case for the regressions of lens thickness, volume, and surface area, which each had an R2 > 0.6. The regression for the posterior radius of curvature had an R2 < 0.2, making this regression unreliable. For all other regressions we found 0.25 < R2 < 0.6. The Bennett-Royston method also produced a good estimation of the radii of curvature, provided its parameters were adjusted appropriately. Conclusions. The regressions presented in this article offer a valuable alternative in case no measured lens biometry values are available; however care must be taken for possible outliers.

The individual and interactive relationship between long chain omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and physical activity as predictors of cognition in cognitively impaired and non-impaired older adults

Alterations in cognitive function are characteristic of the aging process in humans and other animals. However, the nature of these age related changes in cognition is complex and is likely to be influenced by interactions between genetic predispositions and environmental factors resulting in dynamic fluctuations within and between individuals. These inter and intra-individual fluctuations are evident in both so-called normal cognitive aging and at the onset of cognitive pathology. Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), thought to be a prodromal phase of dementia, represents perhaps the final opportunity to mitigate cognitive declines that may lead to terminal conditions such as dementia. The prognosis for people with MCI is mixed with the evidence suggesting that many will remain stable within 10-years of diagnosis, many will improve, and many will transition to dementia. If the characteristics of people who do not progress to dementia from MCI can be identified and replicated in others it may be possible to reduce or delay dementia onset, thus reducing a growing personal and public health burden. Furthermore, if MCI onset can be prevented or delayed, the burden of cognitive decline in aging populations worldwide may be reduced. A cognitive domain that is sensitive to the effects of advancing age, and declines in which have been shown to presage the onset of dementia in MCI patients, is executive function. Moreover, environmental factors such as diet and physical activity have been shown to affect performance on tests of executive function. For example, improvements in executive function have been demonstrated as a result of increased aerobic and anaerobic physical activity and, although the evidence is not as strong, findings from dietary interventions suggest certain nutrients may preserve or improve executive functions in old age. These encouraging findings have been demonstrated in older adults with MCI and their non-impaired peers. However, there are some gaps in the literature that need to be addressed. For example, little is known about the effect on cognition of an interaction between diet and physical activity. Both are important contributors to health and wellbeing, and a growing body of evidence attests to their importance in mental and cognitive health in aging individuals. Yet physical activity and diet are rarely considered together in the context of cognitive function. There is also little known about potential underlying biological mechanisms that might explain the physical activity/diet/cognition relationship. The first aim of this program of research was to examine the individual and interactive role of physical activity and diet, specifically long chain polyunsaturated fatty acid consumption(LCn3) as predictors of MCI status. The second aim is to examine executive function in MCI in the context of the individual and interactive effects of physical activity and LCn3.. A third aim was to explore the role of immune and endocrine system biomarkers as possible mediators in the relationship between LCn3, physical activity and cognition. Study 1a was a cross-sectional analysis of MCI status as a function of erythrocyte proportions of an interaction between physical activity and LCn3. The marine based LCn3s eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) have both received support in the literature as having cognitive benefits, although comparisons of the relative benefits of EPA or DHA, particularly in relation to the aetiology of MCI, are rare. Furthermore, a limited amount of research has examined the cognitive benefits of physical activity in terms of MCI onset. No studies have examined the potential interactive benefits of physical activity and either EPA or DHA. Eighty-four male and female adults aged 65 to 87 years, 50 with MCI and 34 without, participated in Study 1a. A logistic binary regression was conducted with MCI status as a dependent variable, and the individual and interactive relationships between physical activity and either EPA or DHA as predictors. Physical activity was measured using a questionnaire and specific physical activity categories were weighted according to the metabolic equivalents (METs) of each activity to create a physical activity intensity index (PAI). A significant relationship was identified between MCI outcome and the interaction between the PAI and EPA; participants with a higher PAI and higher erythrocyte proportions of EPA were more likely to be classified as non-MCI than their less active peers with less EPA. Study 1b was a randomised control trial using the participants from Study 1a who were identified with MCI. Given the importance of executive function as a determinant of progression to more severe forms of cognitive impairment and dementia, Study 1b aimed to examine the individual and interactive effect of physical activity and supplementation with either EPA or DHA on executive function in a sample of older adults with MCI. Fifty male and female participants were randomly allocated to supplementation groups to receive 6-months of supplementation with EPA, or DHA, or linoleic acid (LA), a long chain polyunsaturated omega-6 fatty acid not known for its cognitive enhancing properties. Physical activity was measured using the PAI from Study 1a at baseline and follow-up. Executive function was measured using five tests thought to measure different executive function domains. Erythrocyte proportions of EPA and DHA were higher at follow-up; however, PAI was not significantly different. There was also a significant improvement in three of the five executive function tests at follow-up. However, regression analyses revealed that none of the variance in executive function at follow-up was predicted by EPA, DHA, PAI, the EPA by PAI interaction, or the DHA by PAI interaction. The absence of an effect may be due to a small sample resulting in limited power to find an effect, the lack of change in physical activity over time in terms of volume and/or intensity, or a combination of both reduced power and no change in physical activity. Study 2a was a cross-sectional study using cognitively unimpaired older adults to examine the individual and interactive effects of LCn3 and PAI on executive function. Several possible explanations for the absence of an effect were identified. From this consideration of alternative explanations it was hypothesised that post-onset interventions with LCn3 either alone or in interation with self-reported physical activity may not be beneficial in MCI. Thus executive function responses to the individual and interactive effects of physical activity and LCn3 were examined in a sample of older male and female adults without cognitive impairment (n = 50). A further aim of study 2a was to operationalise executive function using principal components analysis (PCA) of several executive function tests. This approach was used firstly as a data reduction technique to overcome the task impurity problem, and secondly to examine the executive function structure of the sample for evidence of de-differentiation. Two executive function components were identified as a result of the PCA (EF 1 and EF 2). However, EPA, DHA, the PAI, or the EPA by PAI or DHA by PAI interactions did not account for any variance in the executive function components in subsequent hierarchical multiple regressions. Study 2b was an exploratory correlational study designed to explore the possibility that immune and endocrine system biomarkers may act as mediators of the relationship between LCn3, PAI, the interaction between LCn3 and PAI, and executive functions. Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), an endocrine system growth hormone, and interleukin-6 (IL-6) an immune system cytokine involved in the acute inflammatory response, have both been shown to affect cognition including executive functions. Moreover, IGF-1 and IL-6 have been shown to be antithetical in so far as chronically increased IL-6 has been associated with reduced IGF-1 levels, a relationship that has been linked to age related morbidity. Further, physical activity and LCn3 have been shown to modulate levels of both IGF-1 and IL-6. Thus, it is possible that the cognitive enhancing effects of LCn3, physical activity or their interaction are mediated by changes in the balance between IL-6 and IGF-1. Partial and non-parametric correlations were conducted in a subsample of participants from Study 2a (n = 13) to explore these relationships. Correlations of interest did not reach significance; however, the coefficients were quite large for several relationships suggesting studies with larger samples may be warranted. In summary, the current program of research found some evidence supporting an interaction between EPA, not DHA, and higher energy expenditure via physical activity in differentiating between older adults with and without MCI. However, a RCT examining executive function in older adults with MCI found no support for increasing EPA or DHA while maintaining current levels of energy expenditure. Furthermore, a cross-sectional study examining executive function in older adults without MCI found no support for better executive function performance as a function of increased EPA or DHA consumption, greater energy expenditure via physical activity or an interaction between physical activity and either EPA or DHA. Finally, an examination of endocrine and immune system biomarkers revealed promising relationships in terms of executive function in non-MCI older adults particularly with respect to LCn3 and physical activity. Taken together, these findings demonstrate a potential benefit of increasing physical activity and LCn3 consumption, particularly EPA, in mitigating the risk of developing MCI. In contrast, no support was found for a benefit to executive function as a result of increased physical activity, LCn3 consumption or an interaction between physical activity and LCn3, in participants with and without MCI. These results are discussed with reference to previous findings in the literature including possible limitations and opportunities for future research.

Intelligent reliability analysis with incomplete covariates

The reliability analysis is crucial to reducing unexpected down time, severe failures and ever tightened maintenance budget of engineering assets. Hazard based reliability methods are of particular interest as hazard reflects the current health status of engineering assets and their imminent failure risks. Most existing hazard models were constructed using the statistical methods. However, these methods were established largely based on two assumptions: one is the assumption of baseline failure distributions being accurate to the population concerned and the other is the assumption of effects of covariates on hazards. These two assumptions may be difficult to achieve and therefore compromise the effectiveness of hazard models in the application. To address this issue, a non-linear hazard modelling approach is developed in this research using neural networks (NNs), resulting in neural network hazard models (NNHMs), to deal with limitations due to the two assumptions for statistical models. With the success of failure prevention effort, less failure history becomes available for reliability analysis. Involving condition data or covariates is a natural solution to this challenge. A critical issue for involving covariates in reliability analysis is that complete and consistent covariate data are often unavailable in reality due to inconsistent measuring frequencies of multiple covariates, sensor failure, and sparse intrusive measurements. This problem has not been studied adequately in current reliability applications. This research thus investigates such incomplete covariates problem in reliability analysis. Typical approaches to handling incomplete covariates have been studied to investigate their performance and effects on the reliability analysis results. Since these existing approaches could underestimate the variance in regressions and introduce extra uncertainties to reliability analysis, the developed NNHMs are extended to include handling incomplete covariates as an integral part. The extended versions of NNHMs have been validated using simulated bearing data and real data from a liquefied natural gas pump. The results demonstrate the new approach outperforms the typical incomplete covariates handling approaches. Another problem in reliability analysis is that future covariates of engineering assets are generally unavailable. In existing practices for multi-step reliability analysis, historical covariates were used to estimate the future covariates. Covariates of engineering assets, however, are often subject to substantial fluctuation due to the influence of both engineering degradation and changes in environmental settings. The commonly used covariate extrapolation methods thus would not be suitable because of the error accumulation and uncertainty propagation. To overcome this difficulty, instead of directly extrapolating covariate values, projection of covariate states is conducted in this research. The estimated covariate states and unknown covariate values in future running steps of assets constitute an incomplete covariate set which is then analysed by the extended NNHMs. A new assessment function is also proposed to evaluate risks of underestimated and overestimated reliability analysis results. A case study using field data from a paper and pulp mill has been conducted and it demonstrates that this new multi-step reliability analysis procedure is able to generate more accurate analysis results.

The confidence of speech-language pathology students regarding communicating with people with aphasia

Background Aphasia is an acquired language disorder that can present a significant barrier to patient involvement in healthcare decisions. Speech-language pathologists (SLPs) are viewed as experts in the field of communication. However, many SLP students do not receive practical training in techniques to communicate with people with aphasia (PWA) until they encounter PWA during clinical education placements. Methods This study investigated the confidence and knowledge of SLP students in communicating with PWA prior to clinical placements using a customised questionnaire. Confidence in communicating with people with aphasia was assessed using a 100-point visual analogue scale. Linear, and logistic, regressions were used to examine the association between confidence and age, as well as confidence and course type (graduate-entry masters or undergraduate), respectively. Knowledge of strategies to assist communication with PWA was examined by asking respondents to list specific strategies that could assist communication with PWA. Results SLP students were not confident with the prospect of communicating with PWA; reporting a median 29-points (inter-quartile range 17–47) on the visual analogue confidence scale. Only, four (8.2%) of respondents rated their confidence greater than 55 (out of 100). Regression analyses indicated no relationship existed between confidence and students‘ age (p = 0.31, r-squared = 0.02), or confidence and course type (p = 0.22, pseudo r-squared = 0.03). Students displayed limited knowledge about communication strategies. Thematic analysis of strategies revealed four overarching themes; Physical, Verbal Communication, Visual Information and Environmental Changes. While most students identified potential use of resources (such as images and written information), fewer students identified strategies to alter their verbal communication (such as reduced speech rate). Conclusions SLP students who had received aphasia related theoretical coursework, but not commenced clinical placements with PWA, were not confident in their ability to communicate with PWA. Students may benefit from an educational intervention or curriculum modification to incorporate practical training in effective strategies to communicate with PWA, before they encounter PWA in clinical settings. Ensuring students have confidence and knowledge of potential communication strategies to assist communication with PWA may allow them to focus their learning experiences in more specific clinical domains, such as clinical reasoning, rather than building foundation interpersonal communication skills.

Early life predictors of preschool overweight and obesity : a case–control study in Sri Lanka

Background Childhood obesity increases the risk of obesity in adulthood and is associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our aim was to assess the early life risk factors associated with overweight and obesity among preschool children. Methods In this case–control study, from the 1087 preschool children measured, age, sex and ethnicity matched 71 cases and 71 controls were recruited. Cases and controls were defined according to the WHO 2006 growth standards. The birth and growth characteristics were extracted from the child health development records. Infant feeding practices and maternal factors were obtained from the mother. Rapid weight gain was defined as an increase in weight-for-age Z score (WHO standards) above 0.67 SD from birth to 2 years. The magnitude and significant difference in mean values of the variables associated with overweight and obesity were evaluated using logistic regressions and paired t-test, respectively. Results Cases had significantly shorter duration (months) of breastfeeding (19.4, 24.6, p = 0.003), and smaller duration (months) of exclusive breastfeeding (3.7, 5.1, p = 0.001) compared to controls. Rapid weight gain (OR = 6.3, 95% CI = 2.04–19.49), first born status (OR = 3.6, 95% CI = 1.17-10.91) and pre-pregnancy obesity (OR = 4.0, 95% CI = 1.46-10.76) were positively associated with overweight and obesity. Breastfeeding more than 2 years (OR = 0.2, 95% CI = 0.06-0.57) was negatively associated with overweight and obesity. Conclusion Rapid weight gain within first two years, first–born status and pre-pregnancy obesity of the mother contributed for preschool obesity. Our results suggest that intervention may be indicated earlier in infancy and during the toddler and preschool years to tackle the increasing prevalence of obesity.

Donating blood and organs : using an extended theory of planned behavior perspective to identify similarities and differences in individual motivations to donate

Due to the critical shortage and continued need of blood and organ donations (ODs), research exploring similarities and differences in the motivational determinants of these behaviors is needed. In a sample of 258 university students, we used a cross-sectional design to test the utility of an extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) including moral norm, self-identity and in-group altruism (family/close friends and ethnic group), to predict people’s blood and OD intentions. Overall, the extended TPB explained 77.0% and 74.6% of variance in blood and OD intentions, respectively. In regression analyses, common contributors to intentions across donation contexts were attitude, self-efficacy and self-identity. Normative influences varied with subjective norm as a significant predictor related to OD intentions but not blood donation intentions at the final step of regression analyses. Moral norm did not contribute significantly to blood or OD intentions. In-group altruism (family/close friends) was significantly related to OD intentions only in regressions. Future donation strategies should increase confidence to donate, foster a perception of self as the type of person who donates blood and/or organs, and address preferences to donate organs to in-group members only.

Physical activity promotion as a school priority : what do parents think?

The demands and responsibilities placed on schools in contemporary education systems are vast. However, with growing obesity levels and physical inactivity, the prevention of chronic disease has focused on youth populations, with schools playing the focal educative asset in this strategy. Parents play a decisive role in their child’s educational setting, and as fee and tax payers, are ultimately a consumer. Parents (82 males and 208 females) of secondary school children were recruited from three private (n=151) and two government schools (n=150) in Brisbane, Australia. The mean (standard deviation) age was 44.57 (6.21) years. Participants responded to a series of questions about physical activity at their child’s school, in addition to completing the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, frequency distributions and logistic regressions. Parents were deemed sufficiently physically active if they participated in at least 150 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity per week. Overall, 83 (59.7%) parents from private and 60 (50.8%) parents from government schools were deemed sufficiently physically active. Concerning whether physical activity promotion should be a priority at their child’s school, 111 (73.5%) parents from private schools either agreed or strongly agreed, as opposed to 97 (64.7%) parents from government schools. Logistic regressions indicated that the concept of physical activity promotion being prioritised at schools was dependent on whether the child attended a private school (OR =1.34, z = 2.30, p = 0.02), and whether the participant was sufficiently active (OR =.71, z = -2.48, p = 0.01). Physical activity promotion within schools may provide substantial future benefits on a population scale. The demands on schools may need to be addressed to meet the needs of students and the desires of their parents.

Creating synergy in teacher education through robotics-based STEM activities

Robotics has created opportunities for educators to teach concepts across Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). This is one of the reasons robotics is becoming increasingly common in primary and secondary classrooms in Australia. To enable pre-service teachers to design engaging STEM activities that incorporate these technologies, robotics is part of the teaching program in the primary education degree at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). A number of pre-service teachers also choose to extend their abilities by implementing robotics activities on field studies, in schools on a voluntary basis, and in outreach activities such as the Robotics@QUT project. The Robotics@QUT project is a support network developed to build professional knowledge and capacity of classroom teachers in schools from a low SES area, engaging in robotics-based STEM activities. Professional Development (PD) workshops are provided to teachers in order to build their knowledge and confidence in implementing robotics activities in their classrooms, loan kits are provided, and pre-service teacher visits arranged to provide the teachers with on-going support. A key feature of the project is the partnerships developed between the teachers and the pre-service teachers involved in the project. The purpose of this study was to ascertain how the teachers in the project perceived the value of the PD workshops and the pre-service teachers’ involvement and what the benefits of the involvement in the project were for the pre-service teachers. Seventeen teachers completed a five-point (1-5) likert scale questionnaire regarding their involvement in the Robotics@QUT project. Teachers’ responses on the value of the project and the pre-service teacher support highlighted the benefits of the partnerships formed and provided insights into the value of the support provided by the pre-service teachers. This paper also describes one pre-service teacher’s experience with the project and the perceived benefits from being involved.

The epidemiology of basal cell carcinoma

Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is a skin cancer of particular importance to the Australian community. Its rate of occurrence is highest in Queensland, where 1% to 2% of people are newly affected annually. This is an order of magnitude higher than corresponding incidence estimates in European and North American populations. Individuals with a sun-sensitive complexion are particularly susceptible because sun exposure is the single most important causative agent, as shown by the anatomic distribution of BCC which is in general consistent with the levels of sun exposure across body sites. A distinguishing feature of BCC is the occurrence of multiple primary tumours within individuals, synchronously or over time, and their diagnosis and treatment costs contribute substantially to the major public health burden caused by BCC. A primary knowledge gap about BCC pathogenesis however was an understanding of the true frequency of multiple BCC occurrences and their body distribution, and why a proportion of people do develop more than one BCC in their life. This research project sought to address this gap under an overarching research aim to better understand the detailed epidemiology of BCC with the ultimate goal of reducing the burden of this skin cancer through prevention. The particular aim was to document prospectively the rate of BCC occurrence and its associations with constitutional and environmental (solar) factors, all the while paying special attention to persons affected by more than one BCC. The study built on previous findings and recent developments in the field but set out to confirm and extend these and propose more adequate theories about the complex epidemiology of this cancer. Addressing these goals required a new approach to researching basal cell carcinoma, due to the need to account for the phenomenon of multiple incident BCCs per person. This was enabled by a 20 year community-based study of skin cancer in Australians that provided the methodological foundation for this thesis. Study participants were originally randomly selected in 1986 from the electoral register of all adult residents of the subtropical township of Nambour in Queensland, Australia. On various occasions during the study, participants were fully examined by dermatologists who documented cumulative photodamage as well as skin cancers. Participants completed standard questionnaires about skin cancer-related factors, and consented to have any diagnosed skin cancers notified to the investigators by regional pathology laboratories in Queensland. These methods allowed 100% ascertainment of histologically confirmed BCCs in this study population. 1339 participants had complete follow-up to the end of 2007. Statistical analyses in this thesis were carried out using SAS and SUDAAN statistical software packages. Modelling methods, including multivariate logistic regressions, allowed for repeated measures in terms of multiple BCCs per person. This innovative approach gave new findings on two levels, presented in five chapters as scientific papers: 1. Incidence of basal cell carcinoma multiplicity and detailed anatomic distribution: longitudinal study of an Australian population The incidence of people affected multiple times by BCC was 705 per 100,000 person years compared to an incidence rate of people singly affected of 935 per 100,000 person years. Among multiply and singly affected persons alike, site-specific BCC incidence rates were far highest on facial subsites, followed by upper limbs, trunk, and then lower limbs 2. Melanocytic nevi and basal cell carcinoma: is there an association? BCC risk was significantly increased in those with forearm nevi (Odds Ratios (OR) 1.43, 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) 1.09-1.89) compared to people without forearm nevi, especially among those who spent their time mainly outdoors (OR 1.6, 95%CI 1.1-2.3) compared to those who spent their time mainly indoors. Nevi on the back were not associated with BCC. 3. Clinical signs of photodamage are associated with basal cell carcinoma multiplicity and site: a 16-year longitudinal study Over a 16-year follow-up period, 58% of people affected by BCC developed more than one BCC. Among these people 60% developed BCCs across different anatomic sites. Participants with high numbers of solar keratoses, compared to people without solar keratoses, were most likely to experience the highest BCC counts overall (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-13.5). Occurrences of BCC on the trunk (OR 3.3, 95%CI 1.4-7.6) and on the limbs (OR 3.7, 95%CI 2.0-7.0) were strongly associated with high numbers of solar keratoses on these sites. 4. Occurrence and determinants of basal cell carcinoma by histological subtype in an Australian community Among 1202 BCCs, 77% had a single growth pattern and 23% were of mixed histological composition. Among all BCCs the nodular followed by the superficial growth patterns were commonest. Risk of nodular and superficial BCCs on the head was raised if 5 or more solar keratoses were present on the face (OR 1.8, 95%CI 1.2-2.7 and OR 4.5, 95%CI 2.1-9.7 respectively) and similarly on the trunk in the presence of multiple solar keratoses on the trunk (OR 4.2, 95%CI 1.5-11.9 and OR 2.2, 95%CI 1.1-4.4 respectively). 5. Basal cell carcinoma and measures of cumulative sun exposure: an Australian longitudinal community-based study Dermal elastosis was more likely to be seen adjacent to head and neck BCCs than trunk BCCs (p=0.01). Severity of dermal elastosis increased on each site with increasing clinical signs of cutaneous sun damage on that site. BCCs that occurred without perilesional elastosis per se, were always found in an anatomic region with signs of photodamage. This thesis thus has identified the magnitude of the burden of multiple BCCs. It does not support the view that people affected by more than one BCC represent a distinct group of people who are prone to BCCs on certain body sites. The results also demonstrate that BCCs regardless of site, histology or order of occurrence are strongly associated with cumulative sun exposure causing photodamage to the skin, and hence challenge the view that BCCs occurring on body sites with typically low opportunities for sun exposure or of the superficial growth pattern are different in their association with the sun from those on typically sun-exposed sites, or nodular BCCs, respectively. Through dissemination in the scientific and medical literature, and to the community at large, these findings can ultimately assist in the primary and secondary prevention of BCC, perhaps especially in high-risk populations.

Analysis of temporary traffic control cost items in transportation construction bidding process

Temporary Traffic Control Plans (TCP’s), which provide construction phasing to maintain traffic during construction operations, are integral component of highway construction project design. Using the initial design, designers develop estimated quantities for the required TCP devices that become the basis for bids submitted by highway contractors. However, actual as-built quantities are often significantly different from the engineer’s original estimate. The total cost of TCP phasing on highway construction projects amounts to 6–10% of the total construction cost. Variations between engineer estimated quantities and final quantities contribute to reduced cost control, increased chances of cost related litigations, and bid rankings and selection. Statistical analyses of over 2000 highway construction projects were performed to determine the sources of variation, which later were used as the basis of development for an automated-hybrid prediction model that uses multiple regressions and heuristic rules to provide accurate TCP quantities and costs. The predictive accuracy of the model developed was demonstrated through several case studies.

Entrepreneurial network development as a sign of business emergence

This study aims to explain the entrepreneurial processes as developments of entrepreneurial networks. As a theoretical framework, this study adopts the theory of experimentally organized economy and competence blocs. As suggested by this theory, entrepreneurs select profitable innovations and commercialise them. Through logistic regressions on the subjective and objective dependent variables, we find that nascent firms’ various activities to network customers, innovators, investors, and employees are positively associated with the business emergence. This study identifies the roles of entrepreneurs and the other actors in the entrepreneurial processes.

Semiparametric estimation of count regression models

This paper develops a semiparametric estimation approach for mixed count regression models based on series expansion for the unknown density of the unobserved heterogeneity. We use the generalized Laguerre series expansion around a gamma baseline density to model unobserved heterogeneity in a Poisson mixture model. We establish the consistency of the estimator and present a computational strategy to implement the proposed estimation techniques in the standard count model as well as in truncated, censored, and zero-inflated count regression models. Monte Carlo evidence shows that the finite sample behavior of the estimator is quite good. The paper applies the method to a model of individual shopping behavior. © 1999 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

The Australian general public's perceptions of having a personally controlled electronic health record (PCEHR)

Objective The move internationally by Governments and other health providers to encourage patients to have their own electronic personal health record (e-PHRs) is growing exponentially. In Australia the initiative for a personally controlled electronic health record (known as PCEHR) is directed towards the public at large. The first objective of this study then, is to examine how individuals in the general population perceive the promoted idea of having a PCEHR. The second objective is to extend research on applying a theoretically derived consumer technology acceptance model to guide the research. Method An online survey was conducted to capture the perceptions and beliefs about having a PCEHR identified from technology acceptance models and extant literature. The survey was completed by 750 Queensland respondents, 97% of whom did not have a PCEHR at that time. The model was examined using exploratory factor analysis, regressions and mediation tests. Results Findings support eight of the 11 hypothesised relationships in the model. Perceived value and perceived risk were the two most important variables explaining attitude, with perceived usefulness and compatibility being weak but significant. The perception of risk was reduced through partial mediation from trust and privacy concerns. Additionally, web-self efficacy and ease of use partially mediate the relationship between attitude and intentions. Conclusions The findings represent a snapshot of the early stages of implementing this Australian initiative and captures the perceptions of Queenslanders who at present do not have a PCEHR. Findings show that while individuals appreciate the value of having this record, they do not appear to regard it as particularly useful at present, nor is it particularly compatible with their current engagement with e-services. Moreover, they will need to have any concerns about the risks alleviated, particularly through an increased sense of trust and reduction of privacy concerns. It is noted that although the respondents are non-adopters, they do not feel that they lack the necessary web skills to set up and use a PCEHR. To the best of our knowledge this is one of a very limited number of studies that examines a national level implementation of an e-PHR system, where take-up of the PCEHR is optional rather than a centralised, mandated requirement.

Explicating the role of sexual coercion and vulnerability: Alcohol expectancies in rape attributions

Despite evidence suggesting that alcohol expectancies may influence people’s rape perceptions, no study to date has measured context-specific expectancies comprehensively. This study represents an initial investigation of the role of sexual coercion and vulnerability alcohol expectancies in young Australian adults’ rape blame attributions. Using a vignette method, it was hypothesised that participants’ stronger expectancy endorsement would predict lesser perpetrator blame and greater victim blame. Participants (N = 210; 34.9% males; 18-25 years) read a hypothetical rape scenario and rated dimensions of blameworthiness attributed to the intoxicated sexual perpetrator and victim. Participants completed the Sexual Coercion and Sexual Vulnerability sub-scales of the Drinking Expectancy Sexual Vulnerabilities Questionnaire for the targets self, men, and women in addition to measures of traditional gender role attitudes and rape myth acceptance. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that, as expected, stronger sexual coercion expectancy predicted lower perpetrator blame and greater victim blame. Self-oriented expectancy predicted evaluations of the perpetrator whereas other-oriented expectancy predicted victim evaluations. These effects were robust after controlling for gender role attitudes and rape myth acceptance. Alcohol expectancies appear to be part of a network of beliefs and attitudes which perpetuate biased rape attributions and may be useful to challenge in altering rape perceptions.

Predicting reduced driver alertness on monotonous highways : a driving simulator study

Impaired driver alertness increases the likelihood of drivers’ making mistakes and reacting too late to unexpected events while driving. This is particularly a concern on monotonous roads, where a driver’s attention can decrease rapidly. While effective countermeasures do not currently exist, the development of in-vehicle sensors opens avenues for monitoring driving behavior in real-time. The aim of this study is to predict drivers’ level of alertness through surrogate measures collected from in-vehicle sensors. Electroencephalographic activity is used as a reference to evaluate alertness. Based on a sample of 25 drivers, data was collected in a driving simulator instrumented with an eye tracking system, a heart rate monitor and an electrodermal activity device. Various classification models were tested from linear regressions to Bayesians and data mining techniques. Results indicated that Neural Networks were the most efficient model in detecting lapses in alertness. Findings also show that reduced alertness can be predicted up to 5 minutes in advance with 90% accuracy, using surrogate measures such as time to line crossing, blink frequency and skin conductance level. Such a method could be used to warn drivers of their alertness level through the development of an in-vehicle device monitoring, in real-time, drivers' behavior on highways.