Best practices in prediction for decision-making : lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences

Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three ``best practices'' for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.

Evaluation of on-road driving in people with hemianopia and quadrantanopia

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether some drivers with hemianopia or quadrantanopia display safe driving skills on the road compared with drivers with normal visual fields. ---------- METHOD: An occupational therapist evaluated 22 people with hemianopia, 8 with quadrantanopia, and 30 with normal vision for driving skills during naturalistic driving using six rating scales. ---------- RESULTS: Of drivers with normal vision, >90% drove flawlessly or had minor errors. Although drivers with hemianopia were more likely to receive poorer ratings for all skills, 59.1%–81.8% performed with no or minor errors. A skill commonly problematic for them was lane keeping (40.9%). Of 8 drivers with quadrantanopia, 7 (87.5%) exhibited no or minor errors. ---------- CONCLUSION: This study of people with hemianopia or quadrantanopia with no lateral spatial neglect highlights the need to provide individual opportunities for on-road driving evaluation under natural traffic conditions if a person is motivated to return to driving after brain injury.

Enhancing the teaching of family and consumer sciences : the role of graphic organisers

In a world of constant and rapid change there are greater demands placed on learners to not only gain content knowledge, but also to develop learning skills and to adopt new strategies that will enable them to produce better and faster learning outcomes. Especially in internationally advancing nations like Kuwait this will be a major challenge of the future. This literature review examines theoretical frameworks that enhance Kuwaiti teachers’ knowledge and skill to adopt culturally relevant reform practices across a number of disciplines and provide guidance in an exploration and use of newer pedagogical tools like graphic organisers. It analyses the effects of graphic organisers on higher order learning and evaluates how they can effect professional development and pedagogical change in Kuwait.

Participation and e-democracy how to utilize web 2.0 for policy decision-making

This paper investigates in how to utilize ICT and Web 2.0 technologies and e-democracy software for policy decision-making. It introduces a cutting edge decision-making system that integrates the practice of e-petitions, e-consultation, e-rulemaking, e-voting, and proxy voting. The paper demonstrates how under precondition of direct democracy through the use this system the collective intelligence (CI) of a population would be gathered and used throughout the policy process.

Deliberation and collaboration in the policy process : a Web 2.0 approach

This paper is a summary of a PhD thesis proposal. It will explore how the Web 2.0 platform could be applied to enable and facilitate the large-scale participation, deliberation and collaboration of both governmental and non-governmental actors in an ICT supported policy process. The paper will introduce a new democratic theory and a Web 2.0 based e-democracy platform, and demonstrate how different actors would use the platform to develop and justify policy issues.

Exploration and optimization of user experience in viewing videos on a mobile phone

Compared with viewing videos on PCs or TVs, mobile users have different experiences in viewing videos on a mobile phone due to different device features such as screen size and distinct usage contexts. To understand how mobile user’s viewing experience is impacted, we conducted a field user study with 42 participants in two typical usage contexts using a custom-designed iPhone application. With user’s acceptance of mobile video quality as the index, the study addresses four influence aspects of user experiences, including context, content type, encoding parameters and user profiles. Accompanying the quantitative method (acceptance assessment), we used a qualitative interview method to obtain a deeper understanding of a user’s assessment criteria and to support the quantitative results from a user’s perspective. Based on the results from data analysis, we advocate two user-driven strategies to adaptively provide an acceptable quality and to predict a good user experience, respectively. There are two main contributions from this paper. Firstly, the field user study allows a consideration of more influencing factors into the research on user experience of mobile video. And these influences are further demonstrated by user’s opinions. Secondly, the proposed strategies — user-driven acceptance threshold adaptation and user experience prediction — will be valuable in mobile video delivery for optimizing user experience.

Stochastic models and simulation of ion channel dynamics

The behaviour of ion channels within cardiac and neuronal cells is intrinsically stochastic in nature. When the number of channels is small this stochastic noise is large and can have an impact on the dynamics of the system which is potentially an issue when modelling small neurons and drug block in cardiac cells. While exact methods correctly capture the stochastic dynamics of a system they are computationally expensive, restricting their inclusion into tissue level models and so approximations to exact methods are often used instead. The other issue in modelling ion channel dynamics is that the transition rates are voltage dependent, adding a level of complexity as the channel dynamics are coupled to the membrane potential. By assuming that such transition rates are constant over each time step, it is possible to derive a stochastic differential equation (SDE), in the same manner as for biochemical reaction networks, that describes the stochastic dynamics of ion channels. While such a model is more computationally efficient than exact methods we show that there are analytical problems with the resulting SDE as well as issues in using current numerical schemes to solve such an equation. We therefore make two contributions: develop a different model to describe the stochastic ion channel dynamics that analytically behaves in the correct manner and also discuss numerical methods that preserve the analytical properties of the model.

Governing depression in Australian legal education : power, psychology and advanced liberal government

Legal educators in Australia have increasingly become concerned with the mental health of law students. The apparent risk posed by legal education to a student’s mental health has led to the deployment of a variety of measures to address these problems. By exploring these measures as productive power relations attempting to shape law students, this paper outlines how this government of depression is achieved, and the potential costs of these power relations. It examines one central Australian text offering advice about how students and law student societies can address depression, and argues that doing so not only involves students adopting particular practices of self-government to shape their legal personae, but also relies on an extension of the power relations of legal education. In addition, this paper will link this advice — which privatises the issue of depression, responsibilises individuals and communities, privileges psychological expertise, and seeks to govern ‘at a distance’ — to broader forms of social administration that presently characterise many Western societies. Doing so allows legal educators to reflect on the effects of their attempts to govern depression, and to consider new ways of altering the power relations of legal education.

Classifying external causes of injury : history, current approaches, and future directions

The International Classification of Diseases (ICD) is used to categorise diseases, injuries and external causes, and is a key epidemiological tool enabling the storage and retrieval of data from health and vital records to produce core international mortality and morbidity statistics. The ICD is updated periodically to ensure the classification remains current and work is now underway to develop the next revision, ICD-11. There have been almost 20 years since the last ICD edition was published and over 60 years since the last substantial structural revision of the external causes chapter. Revision of such a critical tool requires transparency and documentation to ensure that changes made to the classification system are recorded comprehensively for future reference. In this paper, the authors provide a history of external causes classification development and outline the external cause structure. Approaches to manage ICD-10 deficiencies are discussed and the ICD-11 revision approach regarding the development of, rationale for and implications of proposed changes to the chapter are outlined. Through improved capture of external cause concepts in ICD-11, a stronger evidence base will be available to inform injury prevention, treatment, rehabilitation and policy initiatives to ultimately contribute to a reduction in injury morbidity and mortality.