Understanding Uncertainties in Non-Linear Population Trajectories: A Bayesian Semi-Parametric Hierarchical Approach to Large-Scale Surveys of Coral Cover

Recently, attempts to improve decision making in species management have focussed on uncertainties associated with modelling temporal fluctuations in populations. Reducing model uncertainty is challenging; while larger samples improve estimation of species trajectories and reduce statistical errors, they typically amplify variability in observed trajectories. In particular, traditional modelling approaches aimed at estimating population trajectories usually do not account well for nonlinearities and uncertainties associated with multi-scale observations characteristic of large spatio-temporal surveys. We present a Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical model for simultaneously quantifying uncertainties associated with model structure and parameters, and scale-specific variability over time. We estimate uncertainty across a four-tiered spatial hierarchy of coral cover from the Great Barrier Reef. Coral variability is well described; however, our results show that, in the absence of additional model specifications, conclusions regarding coral trajectories become highly uncertain when considering multiple reefs, suggesting that management should focus more at the scale of individual reefs. The approach presented facilitates the description and estimation of population trajectories and associated uncertainties when variability cannot be attributed to specific causes and origins. We argue that our model can unlock value contained in large-scale datasets, provide guidance for understanding sources of uncertainty, and support better informed decision making

The potential for new understandings of normal and abnormal cognition by integration of neuroimaging and behavioral data : Not an exercise in carrying coals to Newcastle

Discovering the means to prevent and cure schizophrenia is a vision that motivates many scientists. But in order to achieve this goal, we need to understand its neurobiological basis. The emergent metadiscipline of cognitive neuroscience fields an impressive array of tools that can be marshaled towards achieving this goal, including powerful new methods of imaging the brain (both structural and functional) as well as assessments of perceptual and cognitive capacities based on psychophysical procedures, experimental tasks and models developed by cognitive science. We believe that the integration of data from this array of tools offers the greatest possibilities and potential for advancing understanding of the neural basis of not only normal cognition but also the cognitive impairments that are fundamental to schizophrenia. Since sufficient expertise in the application of these tools and methods rarely reside in a single individual, or even a single laboratory, collaboration is a key element in this endeavor. Here, we review some of the products of our integrative efforts in collaboration with our colleagues on the East Coast of Australia and Pacific Rim. This research focuses on the neural basis of executive function deficits and impairments in early auditory processing in patients using various combinations of performance indices (from perceptual and cognitive paradigms), ERPs, fMRI and sMRI. In each case, integration of two or more sources of information provides more information than any one source alone by revealing new insights into structure-function relationships. Furthermore, the addition of other imaging methodologies (such as DTI) and approaches (such as computational models of cognition) offers new horizons in human brain imaging research and in understanding human behavior.

Microalgae: An alternative source of biodiesel for the compression ignition (CI) engine

This thesis is a comprehensive study of microalgae biodiesel for the compression ignition engine. It examines microalgae growing conditions, the extraction process and physiochemical properties with a wide range of microalgae species. It also evaluates microalgae biodiesel with regards to engine performance and emission characteristics and explains the difficulties and potentiality of microalgae as a biodiesel. In doing so, an extensive analysis of different extraction methods and engine testing was conducted and a comprehensive study on microalgae biodiesel is presented.

The global epidemiology and contribution of cannabis use and dependence to the global burden of disease: results from the GBD 2010 study

Aim Estimate the prevalence of cannabis dependence and its contribution to the global burden of disease. Methods Systematic reviews of epidemiological data on cannabis dependence (1990-2008) were conducted in line with PRISMA and meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) guidelines. Culling and data extraction followed protocols, with cross-checking and consistency checks. DisMod-MR, the latest version of generic disease modelling system, redesigned as a Bayesian meta-regression tool, imputed prevalence by age, year and sex for 187 countries and 21 regions. The disability weight associated with cannabis dependence was estimated through population surveys and multiplied by prevalence data to calculate the years of life lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). YLDs and DALYs attributed to regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia were also estimated. Results There were an estimated 13.1 million cannabis dependent people globally in 2010 (point prevalence0.19% (95% uncertainty: 0.17-0.21%)). Prevalence peaked between 20-24 yrs, was higher in males (0.23% (0.2-0.27%)) than females (0.14% (0.12-0.16%)) and in high income regions. Cannabis dependence accounted for 2 million DALYs globally (0.08%; 0.05-0.12%) in 2010; a 22% increase in crude DALYs since 1990 largely due to population growth. Countries with statistically higher age-standardised DALY rates included the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Western European countries such as the United Kingdom; those with lower DALY rates were from Sub-Saharan Africa-West and Latin America. Regular cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia accounted for an estimated 7,000 DALYs globally. Conclusion Cannabis dependence is a disorder primarily experienced by young adults, especially in higher income countries. It has not been shown to increase mortality as opioid and other forms of illicit drug dependence do. Our estimates suggest that cannabis use as a risk factor for schizophrenia is not a major contributor to population-level disease burden.

The burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders as risk factors for suicide : findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) identified mental and substance use disorders as the 5th leading contributor of burden in 2010, measured by disability adjusted life years (DALYs). This estimate was incomplete as it excluded burden resulting from the increased risk of suicide captured elsewhere in GBD 2010's mutually exclusive list of diseases and injuries. Here, we estimate suicide DALYs attributable to mental and substance use disorders. Methods Relative-risk estimates of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders and the global prevalence of each disorder were used to estimate population attributable fractions. These were adjusted for global differences in the proportion of suicide due to mental and substance use disorders compared to other causes then multiplied by suicide DALYs reported in GBD 2010 to estimate attributable DALYs (with 95% uncertainty). Results Mental and substance use disorders were responsible for 22.5 million (14.8-29.8 million) of the 36.2 million (26.5-44.3 million) DALYs allocated to suicide in 2010. Depression was responsible for the largest proportion of suicide DALYs (46.1% (28.0%-60.8%)) and anorexia nervosa the lowest (0.2% (0.02%-0.5%)). DALYs occurred throughout the lifespan, with the largest proportion found in Eastern Europe and Asia, and males aged 20-30 years. The inclusion of attributable suicide DALYs would have increased the overall burden of mental and substance use disorders (assigned to them in GBD 2010 as a direct cause) from 7.4% (6.2%-8.6%) to 8.3% (7.1%-9.6%) of global DALYs, and would have changed the global ranking from 5th to 3rd leading cause of burden. Conclusions Capturing the suicide burden attributable to mental and substance use disorders allows for more accurate estimates of burden. More consideration needs to be given to interventions targeted to populations with, or at risk for, mental and substance use disorders as an effective strategy for suicide prevention.

Standardising and assessing digital images for use in clinical trials : a practical, reproducible method that blinds the assessor to treatment allocation

With the increasing availability of high quality digital cameras that are easily operated by the non-professional photographer, the utility of using digital images to assess endpoints in clinical research of skin lesions has growing acceptance. However, rigorous protocols and description of experiences for digital image collection and assessment are not readily available, particularly for research conducted in remote settings. We describe the development and evaluation of a protocol for digital image collection by the non-professional photographer in a remote setting research trial, together with a novel methodology for assessment of clinical outcomes by an expert panel blinded to treatment allocation.

Cathodic corrosion of Cu substrates as a route to nanostructured Cu/M (M = Ag, Au, Pd) surfaces

The electrochemical formation of nanostructured materials is generally achieved by reduction of a metal salt onto a substrate that does not influence the composition of the deposit. In this work we report that Ag, Au and Pd electrodeposited onto Cu under conditions where galvanic replacement is not viable and hydrogen gas is evolved results in the formation of nanostructured surfaces that unexpectedly incorporate a high concentration of Cu in the final material. Under cathodic polarization conditions the electrodissolution/corrosion of Cu occurs which provides a source of ionic copper that is reduced at the surface-electrolyte interface. The nanostructured Cu/M (M = Ag, Au and Pd) surfaces are investigated for their catalytic activity for the reduction of 4 nitrophenol by NaBH4 where Cu/Ag was found to be extremely active. This work indicates that a substrate electrode can be utilized in an interesting manner t make bimetallic nanostructures with enhanced catalytic activity.

Stormwater management: An introduction to Green Gully

In recent years there has been increasing interest in the use of water resources generated within the urban boundary for potable supply substitution as a means of augmenting the current supply capacity. These urban water resources include roof and stormwater runoff. Expanding the use of stormwater runoff to add to the water supply and reduce water pollution are important objectives all over Australia. This book presents the background, significance and objectives of the research, as well as the reasons why stormwater plays a significant role as an alternative source of water.

Inducible resistance to maize streak virus

Maize streak virus (MSV), which causes maize streak disease (MSD), is the major viral pathogenic constraint on maize production in Africa. Type member of the Mastrevirus genus in the family Geminiviridae, MSV has a 2.7 kb, single-stranded circular DNA genome encoding a coat protein, movement protein, and the two replication-associated proteins Rep and RepA. While we have previously developed MSV-resistant transgenic maize lines constitutively expressing ‘‘dominant negative mutant’’ versions of the MSV Rep, the only transgenes we could use were those that caused no developmental defects during the regeneration of plants in tissue culture. A better transgene expression system would be an inducible one, where resistance-conferring transgenes are expressed only in MSV-infected cells. However, most known inducible transgene expression systems are hampered by background or ‘‘leaky’’ expression in the absence of the inducer. Here we describe an adaptation of the recently developed INPACT system to express MSV-derived resistance genes in cell culture. Split gene cassette constructs (SGCs) were developed containing three different transgenes in combination with three different promoter sequences. In each SGC, the transgene was split such that it would be translatable only in the presence of an infecting MSV’s replication associated protein. We used a quantitative real-time PCR assay to show that one of these SGCs (pSPLITrepIII-Rb-Ubi) inducibly inhibits MSV replication as efficiently as does a constitutively expressed transgene that has previously proven effective in protecting transgenic maize from MSV. In addition, in our cell-culture based assay pSPLITrepIII-Rb-Ubi inhibited replication of diverse MSV strains, and even, albeit to a lesser extent, of a different mastrevirus species. The application of this new technology to MSV resistance in maize could allow a better, more acceptable product.

Shape up or ship out : can we enhance productivity in coastal aquaculture to compete with other uses?

Coastal resources are coming under increasing pressure from competition between recreational, commercial and conservation uses. This is particularly so in coastal areas adjacent to major population centres. Given high recreational and conservation values in such areas, economic activities need to be highly efficient in order to persist. Management of these industries must therefore also encourage efficient production and full utilisation of the areas available. In order to achieve this, managers must first understand the level and drivers of productivity, and how these can be influenced. In this study, by way of illustration, the focus was on the Sydney rock oyster industry within Queensland's Moreton Bay, a multiple use marine park with high recreational and conservation value adjacent to Australia's third largest city. Productivity of the oyster industry in Moreton Bay is currently low compared to historic levels, and management has an objective of reversing this trend. It is unclear whether this difference is due to oyster farmers' business choices and personal characteristics or whether varying environmental conditions in the Moreton Bay limit the capacity of the oyster industry. These require different management responses in order to enhance productivity. The study examined different productivity measures of the oyster industry using data envelopment analysis (DEA) to determine where productivity gains can be made and by how much. The findings suggest that the industry is operating at a high level of capacity utilisation, but a low level of efficiency. The results also suggest that both demographic and environmental conditions affect technical efficiency in the Bay, with water characteristics improvements and appropriate training potentially providing the greatest benefits to the industry. Methods used in this study are transferable to other industries and provide a means by which coastal aquaculture may be managed to ensure it remains competitive with other uses of coastal resources.

Sources and transport pathways of common heavy metals to urban road surfaces

Heavy metals that are built-up on urban impervious surfaces such as roads are transported to urban water resources through stormwater runoff. Therefore, it is essential to understand the predominant pathways of heavy metals to the build-up on roads in order to develop suitable pollution mitigation strategies to protect the receiving water environment. The study presented in this paper investigated the sources and transport pathways of manganese, lead, copper, zinc and chromium, which are heavy metals commonly present in urban road build-up. It was found that manganese and lead are contributed to road build-up primarily by direct deposition due to the re-suspension of roadside soil by wind turbulence, while traffic is the predominant source of copper, zinc and chromium to the atmosphere and road build-up. Atmospheric deposition is also the major transport pathway for copper and zinc, and for chromium, direct deposition by traffic sources is the predominant pathway.

Weak acid extractable metals in Bramble Bay, Queensland, Australia : temporal behaviour, enrichment and source apportionment

Sediment samples were taken from six sampling sites in Bramble Bay, Queensland, Australia between February and November in 2012. They were analysed for a range of heavy metals including Al, Fe, Mn, Ti, Ce, Th, U, V, Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, Sb, Te, Hg, Tl and Pb. Fraction analysis, enrichment factors and Principal Component Analysis –Absolute Principal Component Scores (PCA-APCS) were carried out in order to assess metal pollution, potential bioavailability and source apportionment. Cr and Ni exceeded the Australian Interim Sediment Quality Guidelines at some sampling sites, while Hg was found to be the most enriched metal. Fraction analysis identified increased weak acid soluble Hg and Cd during the sampling period. Source apportionment via PCA-APCS found four sources of metals pollution, namely, marine sediments, shipping, antifouling coatings and a mixed source. These sources need to be considered in any metal pollution control measure within Bramble Bay.

Source characterisation of urban road surface pollutants for enhanced water quality predictions

This study developed a comprehensive research methodology for identification and quantification of sources responsible for pollutant build-up and wash-off from urban road surfaces. The study identified soil and asphalt wear, and non-combusted diesel fuel as the most influential sources for metal and hydrocarbon pollution respectively. The study also developed mathematical models to relate contributions from identified sources to underlying site specific factors such as land use and traffic. Developed mathematical model will play a key role in urban planning practices, enabling the implementation of effective water pollution control strategies.

Using a theory of planned behaviour framework to explore hand hygiene beliefs at the ‘5 critical moments’ among Australian hospital-based nurses

Background Improving hand hygiene among health care workers (HCWs) is the single most effective intervention to reduce health care associated infections in hospitals. Understanding the cognitive determinants of hand hygiene decisions for HCWs with the greatest patient contact (nurses) is essential to improve compliance. The aim of this study was to explore hospital-based nurses’ beliefs associated with performing hand hygiene guided by the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 5 critical moments. Using the belief-base framework of the Theory of Planned Behaviour, we examined attitudinal, normative, and control beliefs underpinning nurses’ decisions to perform hand hygiene according to the recently implemented national guidelines. Methods Thematic content analysis of qualitative data from focus group discussions with hospital-based registered nurses from 5 wards across 3 hospitals in Queensland, Australia. Results Important advantages (protection of patient and self), disadvantages (time, hand damage), referents (supportive: patients, colleagues; unsupportive: some doctors), barriers (being too busy, emergency situations), and facilitators (accessibility of sinks/products, training, reminders) were identified. There was some equivocation regarding the relative importance of hand washing following contact with patient surroundings. Conclusions The belief base of the theory of planned behaviour provided a useful framework to explore systematically the underlying beliefs of nurses’ hand hygiene decisions according to the 5 critical moments, allowing comparisons with previous belief studies. A commitment to improve nurses’ hand hygiene practice across the 5 moments should focus on individual strategies to combat distraction from other duties, peer-based initiatives to foster a sense of shared responsibility, and management-driven solutions to tackle staffing and resource issues. Hand hygiene following touching a patient’s surroundings continues to be reported as the most neglected opportunity for compliance.

Basic personal values underlie and give coherence to political values: A cross national study in 15 countries

Do the political values of the general public form a coherent system? What might be the source of coherence? We view political values as expressions, in the political domain, of more basic personal values. Basic personal values (e.g., security, achievement, benevolence, hedonism) are organized on a circular continuum that reflects their conflicting and compatible motivations. We theorize that this circular motivational structure also gives coherence to political values. We assess this theorizing with data from 15 countries, using eight core political values (e.g., free enterprise, law and order) and ten basic personal values. We specify the underlying basic values expected to promote or oppose each political value. We offer different hypotheses for the 12 non-communist and three post-communist countries studied, where the political context suggests different meanings of a basic or political value. Correlation and regression analyses support almost all hypotheses. Moreover, basic values account for substantially more variance in political values than age, gender, education, and income. Multidimensional scaling analyses demonstrate graphically how the circular motivational continuum of basic personal values structures relations among core political values. This study strengthens the assumption that individual differences in basic personal values play a critical role in political thought.