Hierarchical models for 2D presence/absence data having ambiguous zeroes: With a biogeographical case study on dingo behaviour

This dissertation is primarily an applied statistical modelling investigation, motivated by a case study comprising real data and real questions. Theoretical questions on modelling and computation of normalization constants arose from pursuit of these data analytic questions. The essence of the thesis can be described as follows. Consider binary data observed on a two-dimensional lattice. A common problem with such data is the ambiguity of zeroes recorded. These may represent zero response given some threshold (presence) or that the threshold has not been triggered (absence). Suppose that the researcher wishes to estimate the effects of covariates on the binary responses, whilst taking into account underlying spatial variation, which is itself of some interest. This situation arises in many contexts and the dingo, cypress and toad case studies described in the motivation chapter are examples of this. Two main approaches to modelling and inference are investigated in this thesis. The first is frequentist and based on generalized linear models, with spatial variation modelled by using a block structure or by smoothing the residuals spatially. The EM algorithm can be used to obtain point estimates, coupled with bootstrapping or asymptotic MLE estimates for standard errors. The second approach is Bayesian and based on a three- or four-tier hierarchical model, comprising a logistic regression with covariates for the data layer, a binary Markov Random field (MRF) for the underlying spatial process, and suitable priors for parameters in these main models. The three-parameter autologistic model is a particular MRF of interest. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods comprising hybrid Metropolis/Gibbs samplers is suitable for computation in this situation. Model performance can be gauged by MCMC diagnostics. Model choice can be assessed by incorporating another tier in the modelling hierarchy. This requires evaluation of a normalization constant, a notoriously difficult problem. Difficulty with estimating the normalization constant for the MRF can be overcome by using a path integral approach, although this is a highly computationally intensive method. Different methods of estimating ratios of normalization constants (N Cs) are investigated, including importance sampling Monte Carlo (ISMC), dependent Monte Carlo based on MCMC simulations (MCMC), and reverse logistic regression (RLR). I develop an idea present though not fully developed in the literature, and propose the Integrated mean canonical statistic (IMCS) method for estimating log NC ratios for binary MRFs. The IMCS method falls within the framework of the newly identified path sampling methods of Gelman & Meng (1998) and outperforms ISMC, MCMC and RLR. It also does not rely on simplifying assumptions, such as ignoring spatio-temporal dependence in the process. A thorough investigation is made of the application of IMCS to the three-parameter Autologistic model. This work introduces background computations required for the full implementation of the four-tier model in Chapter 7. Two different extensions of the three-tier model to a four-tier version are investigated. The first extension incorporates temporal dependence in the underlying spatio-temporal process. The second extensions allows the successes and failures in the data layer to depend on time. The MCMC computational method is extended to incorporate the extra layer. A major contribution of the thesis is the development of a fully Bayesian approach to inference for these hierarchical models for the first time. Note: The author of this thesis has agreed to make it open access but invites people downloading the thesis to send her an email via the 'Contact Author' function.

Modeling crash outcome probabilities at rural intersections: Application of hierarchical binomial logistic models

It is important to examine the nature of the relationships between roadway, environmental, and traffic factors and motor vehicle crashes, with the aim to improve the collective understanding of causal mechanisms involved in crashes and to better predict their occurrence. Statistical models of motor vehicle crashes are one path of inquiry often used to gain these initial insights. Recent efforts have focused on the estimation of negative binomial and Poisson regression models (and related deviants) due to their relatively good fit to crash data. Of course analysts constantly seek methods that offer greater consistency with the data generating mechanism (motor vehicle crashes in this case), provide better statistical fit, and provide insight into data structure that was previously unavailable. One such opportunity exists with some types of crash data, in particular crash-level data that are collected across roadway segments, intersections, etc. It is argued in this paper that some crash data possess hierarchical structure that has not routinely been exploited. This paper describes the application of binomial multilevel models of crash types using 548 motor vehicle crashes collected from 91 two-lane rural intersections in the state of Georgia. Crash prediction models are estimated for angle, rear-end, and sideswipe (both same direction and opposite direction) crashes. The contributions of the paper are the realization of hierarchical data structure and the application of a theoretically appealing and suitable analysis approach for multilevel data, yielding insights into intersection-related crashes by crash type.

V2V/V2I augmented maps : state-of-the-art and contribution to real-time crash risk assessment

A number of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) are currently being released on the market, providing safety functions to the drivers such as collision avoidance, adaptive cruise control or enhanced night-vision. These systems however are inherently limited by their sensory range: they cannot gather information from outside this range, also called their “perceptive horizon”. Cooperative systems are a developing research avenue that aims at providing extended safety and comfort functionalities by introducing vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) wireless communications to the road actors. This paper presents the problematic of cooperative systems, their advantages and contributions to road safety and exposes some limitations related to market penetration, sensors accuracy and communications scalability. It explains the issues of how to implement extended perception, a central contribution of cooperative systems. The initial steps of an evaluation of data fusion architectures for extended perception are exposed.

Spatial analysis of notified dengue fever infections

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran’s I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Primary students’ interpretation of maps : gesture use and mapping knowledge

Maps are used to represent three-dimensional space and are integral to a range of everyday experiences. They are increasingly used in mathematics, being prominent both in school curricula and as a form of assessing students understanding of mathematics ideas. In order to successfully interpret maps, students need to be able to understand that maps: represent space, have their own perspective and scale, and their own set of symbols and texts. Despite the fact that maps have an increased prevalence in society and school, there is evidence to suggest that students have difficulty interpreting maps. This study investigated 43 primary-aged students’ (aged 9-12 years) verbal and gestural behaviours as they engaged with and solved map tasks. Within a multiliteracies framework that focuses on spatial, visual, linguistic, and gestural elements, the study investigated how students interpret map tasks. Specifically, the study sought to understand students’ skills and approaches used to solving map tasks and the gestural behaviours they utilised as they engaged with map tasks. The investigation was undertaken using the Knowledge Discovery in Data (KDD) design. The design of this study capitalised on existing research data to carry out a more detailed analysis of students’ interpretation of map tasks. Video data from an existing data set was reorganised according to two distinct episodes—Task Solution and Task Explanation—and analysed within the multiliteracies framework. Content Analysis was used with these data and through anticipatory data reduction techniques, patterns of behaviour were identified in relation to each specific map task by looking at task solution, task correctness and gesture use. The findings of this study revealed that students had a relatively sound understanding of general mapping knowledge such as identifying landmarks, using keys, compass points and coordinates. However, their understanding of mathematical concepts pertinent to map tasks including location, direction, and movement were less developed. Successful students were able to interpret the map tasks and apply relevant mathematical understanding to navigate the spatial demands of the map tasks while the unsuccessful students were only able to interpret and understand basic map conventions. In terms of their gesture use, the more difficult the task, the more likely students were to exhibit gestural behaviours to solve the task. The most common form of gestural behaviour was deictic, that is a pointing gesture. Deictic gestures not only aided the students capacity to explain how they solved the map tasks but they were also a tool which assisted them to navigate and monitor their spatial movements when solving the tasks. There were a number of implications for theory, learning and teaching, and test and curriculum design arising from the study. From a theoretical perspective, the findings of the study suggest that gesturing is an important element of multimodal engagement in mapping tasks. In terms of teaching and learning, implications include the need for students to utilise gesturing techniques when first faced with new or novel map tasks. As students become more proficient in solving such tasks, they should be encouraged to move beyond a reliance on such gesture use in order to progress to more sophisticated understandings of map tasks. Additionally, teachers need to provide students with opportunities to interpret and attend to multiple modes of information when interpreting map tasks.

User-driven saliency maps for evaluating Region-of-Interest detection

Detection of Region of Interest (ROI) in a video leads to more efficient utilization of bandwidth. This is because any ROIs in a given frame can be encoded in higher quality than the rest of that frame, with little or no degradation of quality from the perception of the viewers. Consequently, it is not necessary to uniformly encode the whole video in high quality. One approach to determine ROIs is to use saliency detectors to locate salient regions. This paper proposes a methodology for obtaining ground truth saliency maps to measure the effectiveness of ROI detection by considering the role of user experience during the labelling process of such maps. User perceptions can be captured and incorporated into the definition of salience in a particular video, taking advantage of human visual recall within a given context. Experiments with two state-of-the-art saliency detectors validate the effectiveness of this approach to validating visual saliency in video. This paper will provide the relevant datasets associated with the experiments.

Combining influence maps and cellular automata for reactive game agents

Agents make up an important part of game worlds, ranging from the characters and monsters that live in the world to the armies that the player controls. Despite their importance, agents in current games rarely display an awareness of their environment or react appropriately, which severely detracts from the believability of the game. Some games have included agents with a basic awareness of other agents, but they are still unaware of important game events or environmental conditions. This paper presents an agent design we have developed, which combines cellular automata for environmental modeling with influence maps for agent decision-making. The agents were implemented into a 3D game environment we have developed, the EmerGEnT system, and tuned through three experiments. The result is simple, flexible game agents that are able to respond to natural phenomena (e.g. rain or fire), while pursuing a goal.

The PSS : From Flat Maps to Layered Perspectives - the contribution of the Airport Metropolis Planning Support System (PSS) to sub-regional planning in the Brisbane Airport case environment

Conventional planning and decision making, with its sectoral and territorial emphasis and flat-map based processes are no longer adequate or appropriate for the increased complexity confronting airport/city interfaces. These crowed and often contested governance spaces demand a more iterative and relational planning and decision-making approach. Emergent GIS based planning and decision-making tools provide a mechanism which integrate and visually display an array of complex data, frameworks and scenarios/expectations, often in ‘real time’ computations. In so doing, these mechanisms provide a common ground for decision making and facilitate a more ‘joined-up’ approach to airport/city planning. This paper analyses the contribution of the Airport Metropolis Planning Support System (PSS) to sub-regional planning in the Brisbane Airport case environment.

Which way from here? The spatiality of maps & navigation in first-person single-player video games

Player experience of spatiality in first-person, single-player games is informed by the maps and navigational aids provided by the game. This project uses textual analysis to examine the way these maps and navigational aids inform the experience of spatiality in Fallout 3, BioShock and BioShock 2. Spatiality is understood as trialectic, incorporating perceived, conceived and lived space, drawing on the work of Henri Lefebvre and Edward Soja. The most prominent elements of the games’ maps and navigational aids are analysed in terms of how they inform players’ experience of the games’ spaces. In particular this project examines the in-game maps these games incorporate, the waypoint navigation and fast-travel systems in Fallout 3, and the guide arrow and environmental cues in the BioShock games.

Using incomplete online metric maps for topological exploration with the Gap Navigation Tree

This paper presents a general, global approach to the problem of robot exploration, utilizing a topological data structure to guide an underlying Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) process. A Gap Navigation Tree (GNT) is used to motivate global target selection and occluded regions of the environment (called “gaps”) are tracked probabilistically. The process of map construction and the motion of the vehicle alters both the shape and location of these regions. The use of online mapping is shown to reduce the difficulties in implementing the GNT.

New maps of learning for quality art education : what pre-service teachers should learn and be able to do

It would be a rare thing to visit an early years setting or classroom in Australia that does not display examples of young children’s artworks. This practice serves to give schools a particular ‘look’, but is no guarantee of quality art education. The Australian National Review of Visual Arts Education (NRVE) (2009) has called for changes to visual art education in schools. The planned new National Curriculum includes the arts (music, dance, drama, media and visual arts) as one of the five learning areas. Research shows that it is the classroom teacher that makes the difference, and teacher education has a large part to play in reforms to art education. This paper provides an account of one foundation unit of study (Unit 1) for first year university students enrolled in a 4-year Bachelor degree program who are preparing to teach in the early years (0–8 years). To prepare pre-service teachers to meet the needs of children in the 21st century, Unit 1 blends old and new ways of seeing art, child and pedagogy. Claims for the effectiveness of this model are supported with evidence-based research, conducted over the six years of iterations and ongoing development of Unit 1.