Framework for investment decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure asset management

A study has been conducted to investigate current practices on decision-making under risk and uncertainty for infrastructure project investments. It was found that many European countries such as the UK, France, Germany including Australia use scenarios for the investigation of the effects of risk and uncertainty of project investments. Different alternative scenarios are mostly considered during the engineering economic cost-benefit analysis stage. For instance, the World Bank requires an analysis of risks in all project appraisals. Risk in economic evaluation needs to be addressed by calculating sensitivity of the rate of return for a number of events. Risks and uncertainties of project developments arise from various sources of errors including data, model and forecasting errors. It was found that the most influential factors affecting risk and uncertainty resulted from forecasting errors. Data errors and model errors have trivial effects. It was argued by many analysts that scenarios do not forecast what will happen but scenarios indicate only what can happen from given alternatives. It was suggested that the probability distributions of end-products of the project appraisal, such as cost-benefit ratios that take forecasting errors into account, are feasible decision tools for economic evaluation. Political, social, environmental as well as economic and other related risk issues have been addressed and included in decision-making frameworks, such as in a multi-criteria decisionmaking framework. But no suggestion has been made on how to incorporate risk into the investment decision-making process.

A national building products inventory

Australia has no nationally accepted building products life cycle inventory (LCI) database for use in building Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD) assessment (BEA) tools. More information about the sustainability of the supply chain is limited by industry’s lack of real capacity to deliver objective information on process and product environmental impact. Recognition of these deficits emerged during compilation of a National LCI database to inform LCADesign, a prototype 3 dimensional object oriented computer aided design (3-D CAD) commercial building design tool. Development of this Australian LCI represents 24 staff years of effort here since 1995. Further development of LCADesign extensions is proposed as being essential to support key applications demanded from a more holistic theoretical framework calling for modules of new building and construction industry tools. A proposed tool, conceptually called LCADetails, is to serve the building product industries own needs as well as that of commercial building design amongst other industries’ prospective needs. In this paper, a proposition is examined that the existing national LCI database should be further expanded to serve Australian building product industries’ needs as well as to provide details for its client-base from a web based portal containing a module of practical supply and procurement applications. Along with improved supply chain assessment services, this proposed portal is envisaged to facilitate industry environmental life cycle improvement assessment and support decision-making to provide accredited data for operational reporting capabilities, load-based reasoning as well as BEA applications. This paper provides an overview of developments to date, including a novel 3-D CAD information and communications technology (ICT) platform for more holistic integration of existing tools for true cost assessment. Further conceptualisation of future prospects, based on a new holistic life cycle assessment framework LCADevelop, considering stakeholder relationships and their need for a range of complementary tools leveraging automated function off such ICT platforms to inform dimensionally defined operations for such as automotive, civil, transport and industrial applications are also explored.

Computer simulation in spine biomechanics : An application in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Scoliosis is a spinal deformity, involving a side-to-side curvature of the spine in the coronal plane as well as a rotation of the spinal column in the transverse plane. The coronal curvature is measured using a Cobb angle. If the deformity is severe, treatment for scoliosis may require surgical intervention whereby a rod is attached to the spinal column to correct the abnormal curvature. In order to provide surgeons with an improved ability to predict the likely outcomes following surgery, techniques to create patient-specific finite element models (FEM) of scoliosis patients treated at the Mater Children’s Hospital (MCH) in Brisbane are being developed and validated. This paper presents a comparison of the simulated and clinical data for a scoliosis patient treated at MCH.

Social change grant-making : a failure of innovation?

Focusing primarily on Anglophone countries, this article begins by looking at the changing environment of foundations, the pressures on foundations and some responses to those pressures. It then focuses on the potential of a structural change approach - often known as 'social change' or 'social justice' grant-making - as a solution to some of the modern dilemmas of foundations, and considers why this approach has, with some exceptions, gained relatively little support. This raises the wider issues of why and how resource-independent, endowed foundations change when conventional explanations of organisational change do not easily apply. Researching a 'lack' is clearly difficult; this article adopts an analytic perspective, examining the characteristics of the structural change approach as a mimetic model, and draws on the work of Rogers (2003) on the characteristics required for the successful diffusion of innovations. It suggests that the structural change approach suffers from some fundamental weaknesses as a mimetic model, failing to meet some key characteristics for the diffusion of innovations. In conclusion, the article looks at conditions under which these weaknesses may be overcome.

Hybrid system simulation of computer control applications over communication networks

Discrete event-driven simulations of digital communication networks have been used widely. However, it is difficult to use a network simulator to simulate a hybrid system in which some objects are not discrete event-driven but are continuous time-driven. A networked control system (NCS) is such an application, in which physical process dynamics are continuous by nature. We have designed and implemented a hybrid simulation environment which effectively integrates models of continuous-time plant processes and discrete-event communication networks by extending the open source network simulator NS-2. To do this a synchronisation mechanism was developed to connect a continuous plant simulation with a discrete network simulation. Furthermore, for evaluating co-design approaches in an NCS environment, a piggybacking method was adopted to allow the control period to be adjusted during simulations. The effectiveness of the technique is demonstrated through case studies which simulate a networked control scenario in which the communication and control system properties are defined explicitly.

Making sense of working lives and working choices : the role of satirical cartoons

This study examined the tone and content of 107 political, satirical cartoons images published in the popular culture forum of mainstream newspapers. The cartoons illustrated the reform of the industrial relations system in Australia in 2005 and 2006. The images were conveyed in a moderate tone. That is, they were more about poking fun at and questioning authority and power, rather than simply describing the issues on one hand, or demonstrating any revolutionary fervor on the other. The cartoons’ content represented many of the concerns and issues being voiced by employer groups, government, opposition, unions and the media at the time. Themes likely to evoke a strong response from the readership included the importance of a collective response in voicing opposition to the legislation and enacting change, the risks to fundamental working conditions, the stealth and dogma associated with the rollout of the changes and the increasing disparity in wealth and power between employers and workers. The images were an important part of the wider discourse and a mechanism which helped place industrial relations squarely in the minds of working Australians.

A review of the video games industry in the United States

With increasing revenues for video game manufacturers, higher software sales and a more diverse audience, the video games industry has been experiencing strong and rapid growth in recent times, rivalling other forms of entertainment. As a result, games have begun to attract the attention of marketing practitioners who are finding it increasingly difficult to attract consumer attention, and are seeking alternative media for marketing communications. This paper provides a review of the video games industry in the United States and raises the question as to whether games are a viable new medium for marketing messages. Areas for research are identified.

Exploring product placement in video games : an investigation of recall effects

Despite its growth and prominence, product placement is generally under-researched and this is even more apparent in the area of placement in video gaming. This paper presents exploratory focus group research into this practice. Findings indicate that the introductory footage to a game provides placement opportunities with the highest level of recall, while peripheral non-action is the worst. Interestingly, recall also appears to be higher for individual brands as opposed to manufacturer brands.

A strategy for making media

It’s never been easier for rights advocates to create and distribute their own media productions, using text, audio, video and the internet. Rights advocates can make media to raise awareness about an issue, to convey new information that is not in the public domain, or to mobilise people to take action. However, careful planning, in the form of a strategy document, is essential to ensure that the media you make genuinely contributes to reaching your advocacy goals. Whether you are an individual rights advocate, a group or an organisation, this chapter will take you through the steps involved in creating a strategic plan for making any kind of media as part of a campaign or project.

Cipher cities

Cipher Cities was a practice-led research project developed in 3 stages between 2005 and 2007 resulting in the creation of a unique online community, ‘Cipher Cities’, that provides simple authoring tools and processes for individuals and groups to create their own mobile events and event journals, build community profile and participate in other online community activities. Cipher Cities was created to revitalise peoples relationship to everyday places by giving them the opportunity and motivation to create and share complex digital stories in simple and engaging ways. To do so we developed new design processes and methods for both the research team and the end user to appropriate web and mobile technologies. To do so we collaborated with ethnographers, designers and ICT researchers and developers. In teams we ran a series of workshops in a wide variety of cities in Australia to refine an engagement process and to test a series of iteratively developed prototypes to refine the systems that supported community motivation and collaboration. The result of the research is 2 fold: 1. a sophisticated prototype for researchers and designers to further experiment with community engagement methodologies using existing and emerging communications technologies. 2. A ‘human dimensions matrix’. This matrix assists in the identification and modification of place based interventions in the social, technical, spatial, cultural, pedagogical conditions of any given community. This matrix has now become an essential part of a number of subsequent projects and assists design collaborators to successfully conceptualise, generate and evaluate interactive experiences. the research team employed practice-led action research methodologies that involved a collaborative effort across the fields of interaction design and social science, in particular ethnography, in order to: 1. seek, contest, refine a design methodology that would maximise the successful application of a dynamic system to create new kinds of interactions between people, places and artefacts’. 2. To design and deploy an application that intervenes in place-based and mobile technologies and offers people simple interfaces to create and share digital stories. Cipher Cities was awarded 3 separate CRC competitive grants (over $270,000 in total) to assist 3 stages of research covering the development of the Ethnographic Design Methodologies, the development of the tools, and the testing and refinement of both the engagement models and technologies. The resulting methodologies and tools are in the process of being commercialised by the Australasian CRC for Interaction Design.

Articulating cooperative systems and driver behaviour theories

There has been increased research interest in Co-operative Vehicle Infrastructure Systems (CVIS) from the eld of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). However most of the research have focused on the engineering aspects and overlooked their relevance to the drivers' behaviour. This paper argues that the priority for cooperative systems is the need to improve drivers decision making and reduce drivers' crash risk exposure to improve road safety. Therefore any engineering solutions need to be considered in conjuction with traffic psychology theories on driver behaviour. This paper explores the advantages and limitations of existing systems and emphasizes various theoretical issues that arise in articulating cooperative systems' capabilities and drivers' behaviour.

Cross-cultural differences in self-reported decision-making style and confidence

The Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (Mann, Burnett, Radford, & Ford, 1997) measures selfreported decision-making coping patterns. The questionnaire was administered to samples of University students in the US (N = 475), Australia (N = 262), New Zealand (N = 260), Japan (N = 359), Hong Kong (N = 281), and Taiwan (N = 414). As predicted, students from the three Western, individualistic cultures (US, Australia, and New Zealand) were more con® dent of their decision-making ability than students from the three East Asian, group-oriented cultures (Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan). No cross-cultural differences were found in scores on decision vigilance (a careful decision-making style). However, compared with Western students, the Asian students tended to score higher on buck-passing and procrastination (avoidant styles of decision making) as well as hypervigilance (a panicky style of decision making). Japanese students scored lowest on decision self-esteem and highest on procrastination and hypervigilance. It was argued that the con¯ ict model and its attendant coping patterns is relevant for describing and comparing decision making in both Western and Asian cultures.

The Melbourne Decision-Making Questionnaire : an instrument for measuring patterns for coping with decisional conflict

A study was conducted to examine the factorial validity of the Flinders Decision Making Questionnaire (Mann, 1982), a 31-item self-report inventory designed to measure tendencies to use three major coping patterns identified in the conflict theory of decision making (Janis and Mann, 1977): vigilance, hypervigilance, and defensive avoidance (procrastination, buck-passing, and rationalization). A sample of 2051 university students, comprising samples from Australia (n=262), New Zealand (n=260), the USA (n=475), Japan (n=359), Hong Kong (n=281) and Taiwan (n=414) was administered the DMQ. Factorial validity of the instrument was tested by confirmatory factor analysis with LISREL. Five different substantive models, representing different structural relationships between the decision-coping patterns had unsatisfactory fit to the data and could not be validated. A shortened instrument, containing 22 items, yielded a revised model comprising four identifiable factors-vigilance, hypervigilance, buck-passing, and procrastination. The revised model had adequate fit with data for each country sample and for the total sample, and was confirmed. It is recommended that the 22-item instrument, named the Melbourne DMQ, replace the Flinders DMQ for measurement of decision-coping patterns.

Computer attitude and classroom computers

Computers not only increase the speed and efficiency of our mental efforts, but in the process they also alter the problem-solving tasks we are faced with and, in so doing, they alter the cognitive processes we use to solve problems. Computers are fundamentally changing our forms of thinking (Colc & Griffin, 1980). Therefore, the computer should be seen as not only having the potential to amplify human mental capabilities, but also of providing a catalyst for intellectual development.