Assessment of Risk for Type 1 Diabetes in Children of Affected Families and in the General Population : Role of Immunological and Metabolic Markers

Background and aims. Type 1 diabetes (T1D), an autoimmune disease in which the insulin producing beta cells are gradually destroyed, is preceded by a prodromal phase characterized by appearance of diabetes-associated autoantibodies in circulation. Both the timing of the appearance of autoantibodies and their quality have been used in the prediction of T1D among first-degree relatives of diabetic patients (FDRs). So far, no general strategies for identifying individuals at increased disease risk in the general population have been established, although the majority of new cases originate in this population. The current work aimed at assessing the predictive role of diabetes-associated immunologic and metabolic risk factors in the general population, and comparing these factors with data obtained from studies on FDRs. Subjects and methods. Study subjects in the current work were subcohorts of participants of the Childhood Diabetes in Finland Study (DiMe; n=755), the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study (LASERI; n=3475), and the Finnish Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention Study (DIPP) Study subjects (n=7410). These children were observed for signs of beta-cell autoimmunity and progression to T1D, and the results obtained were compared between the FDRs and the general population cohorts. --- Results and conclusions. By combining HLA and autoantibody screening, T1D risks similar to those reported for autoantibody-positive FDRs are observed in the pediatric general population. Progression rate to T1D is high in genetically susceptible children with persistent multipositivity. Measurement of IAA affinity failed in stratifying the risk assessment in young IAA-positive children with HLA-conferred disease susceptibility, among whom affinity of IAA did not increase during the prediabetic period. Young age at seroconversion, increased weight-for-height, decreased early insulin response, and increased IAA and IA-2A levels predict T1D in young children with genetic disease susceptibility and signs of advanced beta-cell autoimmunity. Since the incidence of T1D continues to increase, efforts aimed at preventing T1D are important, and reliable disease prediction is needed both for intervention trials and for effective and safe preventive therapies in the future. Our observations confirmed that combined HLA-based screening and regular autoantibody measurements reveal similar disease risks in pediatric general population as those seen in prediabetic FDRs, and that risk assessment can be stratified further by studying glucose metabolism of prediabetic subjects. As these screening efforts are feasible in practice, the knowledge now obtained can be exploited while designing intervention trials aimed at secondary prevention of T1D.

Information, risk and trust in the food chain : Ex-ante valuation of consumer willingness to pay for beef quality information using the contingent valuation method

The safety of food has become an increasingly interesting issue to consumers and the media. It has also become a source of concern, as the amount of information on the risks related to food safety continues to expand. Today, risk and safety are permanent elements within the concept of food quality. Safety, in particular, is the attribute that consumers find very difficult to assess. The literature in this study consists of three main themes: traceability; consumer behaviour related to both quality and safety issues and perception of risk; and valuation methods. The empirical scope of the study was restricted to beef, because the beef labelling system enables reliable tracing of the origin of beef, as well as attributes related to safety, environmental friendliness and animal welfare. The purpose of this study was to examine what kind of information flows are required to ensure quality and safety in the food chain for beef, and who should produce that information. Studying the willingness to pay of consumers makes it possible to determine whether the consumers consider the quantity of information available on the safety and quality of beef sufficient. One of the main findings of this study was that the majority of Finnish consumers (73%) regard increased quality information as beneficial. These benefits were assessed using the contingent valuation method. The results showed that those who were willing to pay for increased information on the quality and safety of beef would accept an average price increase of 24% per kilogram. The results showed that certain risk factors impact consumer willingness to pay. If the respondents considered genetic modification of food or foodborne zoonotic diseases as harmful or extremely harmful risk factors in food, they were more likely to be willing to pay for quality information. The results produced by the models thus confirmed the premise that certain food-related risks affect willingness to pay for beef quality information. The results also showed that safety-related quality cues are significant to the consumers. In the first place, the consumers would like to receive information on the control of zoonotic diseases that are contagious to humans. Similarly, other process-control related information ranked high among the top responses. Information on any potential genetic modification was also considered important, even though genetic modification was not regarded as a high risk factor.

Integration of natural hazards, risk and climate change into spatial planning practices

Most countries of Europe, as well as many countries in other parts of the world, are experiencing an increased impact of natural hazards. It is often speculated, but not yet proven, that climate change might influence the frequency and magnitude of certain hydro-meteorological natural hazards. What has certainly been observed is a sharp increase in financial losses caused by natural hazards worldwide. Eventhough Europe appears to be a space that is not affected by natural hazards to such catastrophic extents as other parts of the world are, the damages experienced here are certainly increasing too. Natural hazards, climate change and, in particular, risks have therefore recently been put high on the political agenda of the EU. In the search for appropriate instruments for mitigating impacts of natural hazards and climate change, as well as risks, the integration of these factors into spatial planning practices is constantly receiving higher attention. The focus of most approaches lies on single hazards and climate change mitigation strategies. The current paradigm shift of climate change mitigation to adaptation is used as a basis to draw conclusions and recommendations on what concepts could be further incorporated into spatial planning practices. Especially multi-hazard approaches are discussed as an important approach that should be developed further. One focal point is the definition and applicability of the terms natural hazard, vulnerability and risk in spatial planning practices. Especially vulnerability and risk concepts are so many-fold and complicated that their application in spatial planning has to be analysed most carefully. The PhD thesis is based on six published articles that describe the results of European research projects, which have elaborated strategies and tools for integrated communication and assessment practices on natural hazards and climate change impacts. The papers describe approaches on local, regional and European level, both from theoretical and practical perspectives. Based on these, passed, current and future potential spatial planning applications are reviewed and discussed. In conclusion it is recommended to shift from single hazard assessments to multi-hazard approaches, integrating potential climate change impacts. Vulnerability concepts should play a stronger role than present, and adaptation to natural hazards and climate change should be more emphasized in relation to mitigation. It is outlined that the integration of risk concepts in planning is rather complicated and would need very careful assessment to ensure applicability. Future spatial planning practices should also consider to be more interdisciplinary, i.e. to integrate as many stakeholders and experts as possible to ensure the sustainability of investments.

Preterm birth and risk factors for chronic disease : Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults

Background: The improved prognosis of early preterm birth has created a generation of surviving very low birth weight (< 1500 g, VLBW) infants whose health risks in adulthood are poorly known. Of every 1000 live-born infants in Finland, about 8 are born at VLBW. Variation in birth weight, even within the normal range, relates to considerable variation in the risk for several common adult disorders, including cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis. Small preterm infants frequently exhibit severe postnatal or prenatal growth retardation, or both. Much reason for concern thus exists, regarding adverse health effects in surviving small preterm infants later lives. We studied young adults, aiming at exploring whether VLBW birth and postnatal events after such a birth are associated with higher levels of risk factors for cardiovascular disease or osteoporosis. Subjects and Methods: A follow-up study for VLBW infants began in 1978; by the end of 1985, 335 VLBW survivors at Helsinki University Central Hospital participated in the follow-up. Their gestational ages ranged from 24 to 35 weeks, mean 29.2 and standard deviation 2.2 weeks. In 2004, we invited for a clinic visit 255 subjects, aged 18 to 27, who still lived in the greater Helsinki area. From the same birth hospitals, we also invited 314 term-born controls of similar age and sex. These two study groups underwent measurements of body size and composition, function of brachial arterial endothelium (flow-mediated dilatation, FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) by ultrasound. In addition, we measured plasma lipid concentrations, ambulatory blood pressure, fasting insulin, glucose tolerance and, by dual-energy x-ray densitometry, bone-mineral density. Results: 172 control and 166 VLBW participants underwent lipid measurements and a glucose tolerance test. VLBW adults fasting insulin (adjusted for body mass index) was 12.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 25.8) higher than that of the controls. The glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after 75 g glucose ingestion showed similar differences (N=332) (I). VLBW adults had 3.9 mmHg (1.3 to 6.4) higher office systolic blood pressure, 3.5 mmHg (1.7 to 5.2) higher office diastolic blood pressure (I), and, when adjusted for body mass index and height, 3.1 mmHg (0.5 to 5.5) higher 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure (N=238) (II). VLBW birth was associated neither with HDL- or total cholesterol nor triglyceride concentrations (N=332) (I), nor was it associated with a low FMD or a high cIMT (N=160) (III). VLBW adults had 0.51-unit (0.28 to 0.75) lower lumbar spine Z scores and 0.56-unit (0.34 to 0.78) lower femoral neck Z scores (N=283). Adjustments for size attenuated the differences, but only partially (IV). Conclusions: These results imply that those born at VLBW, although mostly healthy as young adults, already bear several risk factors for chronic adult disease. The significantly higher fasting insulin level in adults with VLBW suggests increased insulin resistance. The higher blood pressure in young adults born at VLBW may indicate they later are at risk for hypertension, although their unaffected endothelial function may be evidence for some form of protection from cardiovascular disease. Lower bone mineral density around the age of peak bone mass may suggest increased risk for later osteoporotic fractures. Because cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis are frequent, and their prevention is relatively cheap and safe, one should focus on prevention now. When initiated early, preventive measures are likely to have sufficient time to be effective in preventing or postponing the onset of chronic disease.

Preterm birth and risk factors for chronic disease : Helsinki Study of Very Low Birth Weight Adults

Background: The improved prognosis of early preterm birth has created a generation of surviving very low birth weight (PIENEMPI KUIN 1500 g, VLBW) infants whose health risks in adulthood are poorly known. Of every 1000 live-born infants in Finland, about 8 are born at VLBW. Variation in birth weight, even within the normal range, relates to considerable variation in the risk for several common adult disorders, including cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis. Small preterm infants frequently exhibit severe postnatal or prenatal growth retardation, or both. Much reason for concern thus exists, regarding adverse health effects in surviving small preterm infants later lives. We studied young adults, aiming at exploring whether VLBW birth and postnatal events after such a birth are associated with higher levels of risk factors for cardiovascular disease or osteoporosis. Subjects and Methods: A follow-up study for VLBW infants began in 1978; by the end of 1985, 335 VLBW survivors at Helsinki University Central Hospital participated in the follow-up. Their gestational ages ranged from 24 to 35 weeks, mean 29.2 and standard deviation 2.2 weeks. In 2004, we invited for a clinic visit 255 subjects, aged 18 to 27, who still lived in the greater Helsinki area. From the same birth hospitals, we also invited 314 term-born controls of similar age and sex. These two study groups underwent measurements of body size and composition, function of brachial arterial endothelium (flow-mediated dilatation, FMD) and carotid artery intima-media thickness (cIMT) by ultrasound. In addition, we measured plasma lipid concentrations, ambulatory blood pressure, fasting insulin, glucose tolerance and, by dual-energy x-ray densitometry, bone-mineral density. Results: 172 control and 166 VLBW participants underwent lipid measurements and a glucose tolerance test. VLBW adults fasting insulin (adjusted for body mass index) was 12.6% (95% confidence interval, 0.8 to 25.8) higher than that of the controls. The glucose and insulin concentrations 120 minutes after 75 g glucose ingestion showed similar differences (N=332) (I). VLBW adults had 3.9 mmHg (1.3 to 6.4) higher office systolic blood pressure, 3.5 mmHg (1.7 to 5.2) higher office diastolic blood pressure (I), and, when adjusted for body mass index and height, 3.1 mmHg (0.5 to 5.5) higher 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure (N=238) (II). VLBW birth was associated neither with HDL- or total cholesterol nor triglyceride concentrations (N=332) (I), nor was it associated with a low FMD or a high cIMT (N=160) (III). VLBW adults had 0.51-unit (0.28 to 0.75) lower lumbar spine Z scores and 0.56-unit (0.34 to 0.78) lower femoral neck Z scores (N=283). Adjustments for size attenuated the differences, but only partially (IV). Conclusions: These results imply that those born at VLBW, although mostly healthy as young adults, already bear several risk factors for chronic adult disease. The significantly higher fasting insulin level in adults with VLBW suggests increased insulin resistance. The higher blood pressure in young adults born at VLBW may indicate they later are at risk for hypertension, although their unaffected endothelial function may be evidence for some form of protection from cardiovascular disease. Lower bone mineral density around the age of peak bone mass may suggest increased risk for later osteoporotic fractures. Because cardiovascular disease and osteoporosis are frequent, and their prevention is relatively cheap and safe, one should focus on prevention now. When initiated early, preventive measures are likely to have sufficient time to be effective in preventing or postponing the onset of chronic disease.

Fatigued driving : prevalence, risk factors and groups, and the law

Fatigue and sleepiness are major causes of road traffic accidents. However, precise data is often lacking because a validated and reliable device for detecting the level of sleepiness (cf. the breathalyzer for alcohol levels) does not exist, nor does criteria for the unambiguous detection of fatigue/sleepiness as a contributing factor in accident causation. Therefore, identification of risk factors and groups might not always be easy. Furthermore, it is extremely difficult to incorporate fatigue in operationalized terms into either traffic or criminal law. The main aims of this thesis were to estimate the prevalence of fatigue problems while driving among the Finnish driving population, to explore how VALT multidisciplinary investigation teams, Finnish police, and courts recognize (and prosecute) fatigue in traffic, to identify risk factors and groups, and finally to explore the application of the Finnish Road Traffic Act (RTA), which explicitly forbids driving while tired in Article 63. Several different sources of data were used: a computerized database and the original folders of multidisciplinary teams investigating fatal accidents (VALT), the driver records database (AKE), prosecutor and court decisions, a survey of young male military conscripts, and a survey of a representative sample of the Finnish active driving population. The results show that 8-15% of fatal accidents during 1991-2001 were fatigue related, that every fifth Finnish driver has fallen asleep while driving at some point during his/her driving career, and that the Finnish police and courts punish on average one driver per day on the basis of fatigued driving (based on the data from the years 2004-2005). The main finding regarding risk factors and risk groups is that during the summer months, especially in the afternoon, the risk of falling asleep while driving is increased. Furthermore, the results indicate that those with a higher risk of falling asleep while driving are men in general, but especially young male drivers including military conscripts and the elderly during the afternoon hours and the summer in particular; professional drivers breaking the rules about duty and rest hours; and drivers with a tendency to fall asleep easily. A time-of-day pattern of sleep-related incidents was repeatedly found. It was found that VALT teams can be considered relatively reliable when assessing the role of fatigue and sleepiness in accident causation; thus, similar experts might be valuable in the court process as expert witnesses when fatigue or sleepiness are suspected to have a role in an accident’s origins. However, the application of Article 63 of the RTA that forbids, among other things, fatigued driving will continue to be an issue that deserves further attention. This should be done in the context of a needed attitude change towards driving while in a state of extreme tiredness (e.g., after being awake for more than 24 hours), which produces performance deterioration comparable to illegal intoxication (BAC around 0.1%). Regarding the well-known interactive effect of increased sleepiness and even small alcohol levels, the relatively high proportion (up to 14.5%) of Finnish drivers owning and using a breathalyzer raises some concern. This concern exists because these drivers are obviously more focused on not breaking the “magic” line of 0.05% BAC than being concerned about driving impairment, which might be much worse than they realize because of the interactive effects of increased sleepiness and even low alcohol consumption. In conclusion, there is no doubt that fatigue and sleepiness problems while driving are common among the Finnish driving population. While we wait for the invention of reliable devices for fatigue/sleepiness detection, we should invest more effort in raising public awareness about the dangerousness of fatigued driving and educate drivers about how to recognize and deal with fatigue and sleepiness when they ultimately occur.

Chronic and acute stress in atherosclerosis : the role of endothelial function and arterial elasticity

Atherosclerosis is the main underlying pathology of coronary heart disease. Coronary heart disease is a serious health problem in Finland, and it is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in industrialized countries. Psychological stress correlates with coronary heart disease events – myocardial infarction and sudden death, which are the most common clinical syndromes of atherosclerotic narrowing of arteries. The present series of studies examines the interaction between stress and endothelial function in relation to atherosclerosis. The study also aims to give new information on the mechanisms through which stress has its effect on atherosclerosis progression, focusing on possible relations between psychological stress and the functioning of the endothelium. Our project is based on data from one of the largest national epidemiological studies, the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns study, which has monitored the development of risk factors for coronary heart disease in 3596 young adults since 1980. The present study combines experimental stress research with epidemiology and uses an advanced method for examining atherosclerosis development in healthy subjects (intima-media thickness ultrasound measurement). The physiological parameters used were heart rate, respiratory sinus arrhythmia and pre-ejection period. Chronic stress was assessed by vital exhaustion. The ultrasound measurements that served as the indexes of preclinical atherosclerosis were carotid intima-media thickness, brachial flow-mediated dilatation and carotid artery compliance. The effects of cardiovascular risk factors found to be important were taken into account: serum cholesterols level, triglyceride level, serum insulin level and systolic and diastolic blood pressure. There were 69, 1596, 81 and 1721 participants in studies I-IV, respectively. The results showed that both chronic and acute stress may exert an effect on atherosclerosis in subjects with impaired endothelial responses. The findings are consistent with the idea that risk factors are more harmful if the endothelium is not working properly. Chronic stress was found to be a risk if it has resulted in ineffective cardiac stress reactivity or delayed recovery. Men were shown to be at increased risk for atherosclerotic progression in early life, which suggests men’s decreased stress coping ability in relation to stressful psychosocial coronary risk factors. Autonomic imbalance may be the common mechanism of the stress influence on atherosclerosis development. The results of the present study contain background information for the identification the first stages of atherosclerosis, and they may be useful for preventive medicine programs for young adults and could help to improve cardiovascular health in Finland as well as in other countries.

Effects of dairy proteins and calcium on diet-induced obesity in mice

Diet high in dairy products is inversely associated with body mass index, risk of metabolic syndrome and prevalence of type 2 diabetes in several populations. Also a number of intervention studies support the role of increased dairy intake in the prevention and treatment of obesity. Dairy calcium has been suggested to account for the effect of dairy on body weight, but it has been repeatedly shown that the effect of dairy is superior to the effect of supplemental calcium. Dairy proteins are postulated to either enhance the effect of calcium or have an independent effect on body weight, but studies in the area are scarce. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential of dairy proteins and calcium in the prevention and treatment of diet-induced obesity in C57Bl/6J mice. The effect of dairy proteins and calcium on the liver and adipose tissue was also investigated in order to characterise the potential mechanisms explaining the reduction of risk for metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes. A high-calcium diet (1.8%) in combination with dietary whey protein inhibited body weight and fat gain and accelerated body weight and fat loss in high-fat-fed C57Bl/6J mice during long-term studies of 14 to 21 weeks. α-lactalbumin, one of the major whey proteins, was the most effective whey protein fraction showing significantly accelerated weight and fat loss during energy restriction and reduced the amount of visceral fat gain during ad libitum feeding after weight loss. The microarray data suggest sensitisation of insulin signalling in the adipose tissue as a result of a calcium-rich whey protein diet. Lipidomic analysis revealed that weight loss on whey protein-based high-calcium diet was characterised by significant decreases in diabetogenic diacylglycerols and lipotoxic ceramide species. The calcium supplementation led to a small, but statistically significant decrease in fat absorption independent of the protein source of the diet. This augments, but does not fully explain the effects of the studied diets on body weight. A whey protein-containing high-calcium diet had a protective effect against a high-fat diet-induced decline of β3 adrenergic receptor expression in adipose tissue. In addition, a high-calcium diet with whey protein increased the adipose tissue leptin expression which is decreased in this obesity-prone mouse strain. These changes are likely to contribute to the inhibition of weight gain. The potential sensitisation of insulin signalling in adipose tissue together with the less lipotoxic and diabetogenic hepatic lipid profile suggest a novel mechanistic link to explain why increased dairy intake is associated with a lower prevalence of metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes in epidemiological studies. Taken together, the intake of a high-calcium diet with dairy proteins has a body weight lowering effect in high-fat-fed C57Bl/6J mice. High-calcium diets containing whey protein prevent weight gain and enhance weight loss, α-lactalbumin being the most effective whey protein fraction. Whey proteins and calcium have also beneficial effects on hepatic lipid profile and adipose tissue gene expression, which suggest a novel mechanistic link to explain the epidemiological findings on dairy intake and metabolic syndrome. The clinical relevance of these findings and the precise mechanisms of action remain an intriguing field of future research.

Young Men s Sexual Behaviour in Finland and Estonia : Opportunities for prevention of sexually transmitted infections

Background: The incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in most EU states has gradually increased and the rate of newly diagnosed HIV cases has doubled since 1999. STIs differ in their clinical features, prognosis and transmission dynamics, though they do share a common factor in their mode of transmission −that is, human behaviour. The evolvement of STI epidemiology involves a joint action of biological, epidemiological and societal factors. Of the more immediate factors, besides timely diagnosis and appropriate treatment, STI incidence is influenced by population patterns of sexual risk behaviour, particularly the number of sexual partners and the frequency of unprotected intercourse. Assessment of sexual behaviour, its sociodemographic determinants and time-trends are important in understanding the distribution and dynamic of STI epidemiology. Additionally, in the light of the basic structural determinants, such as increased level of migration, changes in gender dynamics and impacts from globalization, with its increasing alignment of values and beliefs, can reveal future challenges related to STI epidemiology. STI case surveillance together with surveillance on sexual behaviour can guide the identification of preventive strategies, assess their effectiveness and predict emerging trends. The objective of this study was to provide base line data on sexual risk behaviour, self-reported STIs and their patterns by sociodemographic factors as well as associations of sexual risk behaviour with substance use among young men in Finland and Estonia. In Finland national population based data on adult men s sexual behaviour is limited. The findings are discussed in the context of STI epidemiology as well as their possible implications for public health policies and prevention strategies. Materials and Methods: Data from three different cross-sectional population-based surveys conducted in Finland and Estonia, during 1998 2005, were used. Sexual behaviour- and health-related questions were incorporated in two surveys in Finland; the Health 2000, a large scale general health survey, focussed on young adults, and the Military health behavioural survey on military conscripts participating in the mandatory military training. Through research collaboration with Estonia, similar questions to the Finnish surveys were introduced to the second Estonian HIV/AIDS survey, which was targeted at young adults. All surveys applied mail-returned, anonymous, self-administered questionnaires with multiple choice formatted answers. Results: In Finland, differences in sexual behaviour between young men and women were minor. An age-stratified analysis revealed that the sex-related difference observed in the youngest age group (18 19 years) levelled off in the age group 20 24 and almost disappeared among those aged 25 29. Marital status was the most important sociodemographic correlate for sexual behaviour for both sexes, singles reporting higher numbers of lifetime-partners and condom use. This effect was stronger for women than for men. However, of those who had sex with casual partners, 15% were married or co-habiting, with no difference between male and female respondents. According to the Military health behavioural survey, young men s sexual risk behaviour in Finland did not markedly change over a period of time between 1998 and 2005. Approximately 30−40% of young men had had multiple sex partners (more than five) in their lifetime, over 20% reported having had multiple sex partners (at least three) over the past year and 50% did not use a condom in their last sexual intercourse. Some 10% of men reported accumulation of risk factors, i.e. having had both, multiple sex partners and not used a condom in their last intercourse, over the past year of the survey. When differences and similarities were viewed within Finland and Estonia, a clear sociodemographic patterning of sexual risk behaviour and self-reported STIs was found in Finland, but a somewhat less consistent trend in Estonia. Generally, both, alcohol and drug use were strong correlates for sexual risk behaviour and self-reported STIs in Finland and Estonia, having a greater effect on engagement with multiple sex partners rather than unprotected intercourse or self-reported STIs. In Finland alcohol use, relative to drug use, was a stronger predictor of sexual risk behaviour and self-reported STIs, while in Estonia drug use predicted sexual risk behaviour and self-reported STIs stronger than alcohol use. Conclusions: The study results point to the importance for prevention of sexual risk behaviour, particularly strategies that integrate sexual risk with alcohol and drug use risks. The results point to the need to focus further research on sexual behaviour and STIs among young people; on tracking trends among general population as well as applying in-depth research to identify and learn from vulnerable and high-risk population groups for STIs who are exposed to a combination of risk factors.

Campylobacter Infections of Domestic Origin in Finland

Campylobacter jejuni and C. coli are the leading causes of human bacterial gastroenteritis in developed countries. Most human Campylobacter infections are sporadic and a seasonal peak in the distribution of infections can be seen in the summer months in several countries, including Finland. A variety of risk factors for Campylobacter infections have been identified; handling and eating poultry, drinking unpasteurized milk, contact with domestic animals, and travelling abroad. However, the relative importance of the different risk factors in sporadic cases of Campylobacter infection remains unknown. In most cases, the infection is self-limiting and no specific treatment is required. Campylobacter enteritis can cause a wide range of complications, including reactive arthritis (ReA) that is reported in 1-5% of the cases. Seven clinical microbiology laboratories serving different geographical areas of Finland, participated in this multi-centre study, conducted during a seasonal peak in 2002. In a matched case-control study, domestically-acquired sporadic Campylobacter infections from three geographical areas were collected. The final study comprised 100 cases and 137 controls. Risk factors for sporadic domestically-acquired Campylobacter infections were identified on the basis of a questionnaire; swimming in natural waters was found to be a novel risk factor for Campylobacter infection. Other independent risk factors were tasting or eating raw or undercooked meat and drinking untreated water from a dug well. The role of bacterial strain and host characteristics are not fully understood in Campylobacter infections. Exposure factors, demographical characteristics, and the serotype of the Campylobacter isolate may affect the severity of the enteritis. This cross-sectional study comprised 114 patients with C. jejuni enteritis, diagnosed in three clinical microbiology laboratories; most of the patients had participated in the previous case-control study. Swimming was associated with age ≤ 5 years and serotype Pen 6,7 was found significantly more often among patients reporting swimming. The geographical distribution among serotypes varied; serotype Pen 4-complex appeared more often in patients from urban areas and serotype Pen 21 among patients from more rural areas. Thus, risk factors and sources of infection for C. jejuni infection may vary among individuals depending on age and geographical location. The in vitro susceptibilities of C. jejuni and C. coli strains isolated from patients infected abroad (85 strains) or domestically (393 strains) revealed that susceptibility to erythromycin is still high, even among isolates of foreign origin. However, the novel antimicrobial agent telithromycin did not offer any advantage over erythromycin; isolates with high minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) for erythromycin also showed reduced susceptibility to telithromycin. Reduced susceptibility to fluoroquinolones was detected almost exclusively among isolates of foreign origin and half of these isolates with high MICs for fluoroquinolones also showed elevated MICs for doxycycline. Questionnaires concerning complications associated with C. jejuni enteritis were sent to patients two months after becoming ill; 201 patients from seven different geographical areas were included in the study. Musculoskeletal complications after C. jejuni infection were commonly reported by patients (39%). The incidence of classical ReA was 4% and that of Achilles enthesopathy and/or heel pain 9%. Other C. jejuni-associated reactive joint symptoms were commonly reported, however, due to their milder nature seldom seen and diagnosed by a physician. The severity of the enteritis may predict further complications; stomach ache during enteritis was connected to the development of later joint pain. Early antimicrobial treatment, within two days from the start of symptoms, shortened the duration of diarrhoea by two days but did not prevent later musculoskeletal complications. Campylobacter is an important human enteropathogen and causes a significant burden of illness. As the incidence of Campylobacter infections is high, the importance of the infection and the occurrence of complications will increase. This stresses the importance of understanding the risk factors for acquiring Campylobacter infection and how bacterial strain and host characteristics may affect the risk for infection. The role of antimicrobial treatment for acute Campylobacter enteritis seems to be marginal and should be used restrictively.

Elements of Volatility at High Frequency

Volatility is central in options pricing and risk management. It reflects the uncertainty of investors and the inherent instability of the economy. Time series methods are among the most widely applied scientific methods to analyze and predict volatility. Very frequently sampled data contain much valuable information about the different elements of volatility and may ultimately reveal the reasons for time varying volatility. The use of such ultra-high-frequency data is common to all three essays of the dissertation. The dissertation belongs to the field of financial econometrics. The first essay uses wavelet methods to study the time-varying behavior of scaling laws and long-memory in the five-minute volatility series of Nokia on the Helsinki Stock Exchange around the burst of the IT-bubble. The essay is motivated by earlier findings which suggest that different scaling laws may apply to intraday time-scales and to larger time-scales, implying that the so-called annualized volatility depends on the data sampling frequency. The empirical results confirm the appearance of time varying long-memory and different scaling laws that, for a significant part, can be attributed to investor irrationality and to an intraday volatility periodicity called the New York effect. The findings have potentially important consequences for options pricing and risk management that commonly assume constant memory and scaling. The second essay investigates modelling the duration between trades in stock markets. Durations convoy information about investor intentions and provide an alternative view at volatility. Generalizations of standard autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models are developed to meet needs observed in previous applications of the standard models. According to the empirical results based on data of actively traded stocks on the New York Stock Exchange and the Helsinki Stock Exchange the proposed generalization clearly outperforms the standard models and also performs well in comparison to another recently proposed alternative to the standard models. The distribution used to derive the generalization may also prove valuable in other areas of risk management. The third essay studies empirically the effect of decimalization on volatility and market microstructure noise. Decimalization refers to the change from fractional pricing to decimal pricing and it was carried out on the New York Stock Exchange in January, 2001. The methods used here are more accurate than in the earlier studies and put more weight on market microstructure. The main result is that decimalization decreased observed volatility by reducing noise variance especially for the highly active stocks. The results help risk management and market mechanism designing.

Determinants of Coronary and Carotid Atherosclerosis in Finnish Patients with Clinically Suspected Coronary Artery Disease. A Quantitative Angiography and Ultrasound Study

Background. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the most serious threat to life and health in industrialized countries. Atherosclerosis is the main underlying pathology associated with CVD, in particular coronary artery disease (CAD), ischaemic stroke, and peripheral arterial disease. Risk factors play an important role in initiating and accelerating the complex process of atherosclerosis. Most studies of risk factors have focused on the presence or absence of clinically defined CVD. Less is known about the determinants of the severity and extent of atherosclerosis in symptomatic patients. Aims. To clarify the association between coronary and carotid artery atherosclerosis, and to study the determinants associated with these abnormalities with special regard to novel cardiovascular risk factors. Subjects and methods. Quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) and B-mode ultrasound were used to assess coronary and carotid artery atherosclerosis in 108 patients with clinically suspected CAD referred for elective coronary angiography. To evaluate anatomic severity and extent of CAD, several QCA parameters were incorporated into indexes. These measurements reflected CAD severity, extent, and overall atheroma burden and were calculated for the entire coronary tree and separately for different coronary segments (i.e., left main, proximal, mid, and distal segments). Maximum and mean intima-media thickness (IMT) values of carotid arteries were measured and expressed as mean aggregate values. Furthermore, the study design included extensive fasting blood samples, oral glucose tolerance test, and an oral fat-load test to be performed in each participant. Results. Maximum and mean IMT values were significantly correlated with CAD severity, extent, and atheroma burden. There was heterogeneity in associations between IMT and CAD indexes according to anatomical location of CAD. Maximum and mean IMT values, respectively, were correlated with QCA indexes for mid and distal segments but not with the proximal segments of coronary vessels. The values of paraoxonase-1 (PON1) activity and concentration, respectively, were lower in subjects with significant CAD and there was a significant relationship between PON1 activity and concentration and coronary atherosclerosis assessed by QCA. PON1 activity was a significant determinant of severity of CAD independently of HDL cholesterol. Neither PON1 activity nor concentration was associated with carotid IMT. The concentration of triglycerides (TGs), triglyceride-rich lipoproteins (TRLs), oxidized LDL (oxLDL), and the cholesterol content of remnant lipoprotein particle (RLP-C) were significantly increased at 6 hours after intake of an oral fatty meal as compared with fasting values. The mean peak size of LDL remained unchanged 6 hours after the test meal. The correlations between total TGs, TRLs, and RLP-C in fasting and postprandial state were highly significant. RLP-C correlated with oxLDL both in fasting and in fed state and inversely with LDL size. In multivariate analysis oxLDL was a determinant of severity and extent of CAD. Neither total TGs, TRLs, oxLDL, nor LDL size were linked to carotid atherosclerosis. Insulin resistance (IR) was associated with an increased severity and extent of coronary atherosclerosis and seemed to be a stronger predictor of coronary atherosclerosis in the distal parts of the coronary tree than in the proximal and mid parts. In the multivariate analysis IR was a significant predictor of the severity of CAD. IR did not correlate with carotid IMT. Maximum and mean carotid IMT were higher in patients with the apoE4 phenotype compared with subjects with the apoE3 phenotype. Likewise, patients with the apoE4 phenotype had a more severe and extensive CAD than individuals with the apoE3 phenotype. Conclusions. 1) There is an association between carotid IMT and the severity and extent of CAD. Carotid IMT seems to be a weaker predictor of coronary atherosclerosis in the proximal parts of the coronary tree than in the mid and distal parts. 2) PON1 activity has an important role in the pathogenesis of coronary atherosclerosis. More importantly, the study illustrates how the protective role of HDL could be modulated by its components such that equivalent serum concentrations of HDL cholesterol may not equate with an equivalent, potential protective capacity. 3) RLP-C in the fasting state is a good marker of postprandial TRLs. Circulating oxLDL increases in CAD patients postprandially. The highly significant positive correlation between postprandial TRLs and postprandial oxLDL suggests that the postprandial state creates oxidative stress. Our findings emphasize the fundamental role of LDL oxidation in the development of atherosclerosis even after inclusion of conventional CAD risk factors. 4) Disturbances in glucose metabolism are crucial in the pathogenesis of coronary atherosclerosis. In fact, subjects with IR are comparable with diabetic subjects in terms of severity and extent of CAD. 5) ApoE polymorphism is involved in the susceptibility to both carotid and coronary atherosclerosis.

Essays on the Modeling and Prediction of Volatility and Higher Moments of Stock Returns (summary section only)

One of the most fundamental and widely accepted ideas in finance is that investors are compensated through higher returns for taking on non-diversifiable risk. Hence the quantification, modeling and prediction of risk have been, and still are one of the most prolific research areas in financial economics. It was recognized early on that there are predictable patterns in the variance of speculative prices. Later research has shown that there may also be systematic variation in the skewness and kurtosis of financial returns. Lacking in the literature so far, is an out-of-sample forecast evaluation of the potential benefits of these new more complicated models with time-varying higher moments. Such an evaluation is the topic of this dissertation. Essay 1 investigates the forecast performance of the GARCH (1,1) model when estimated with 9 different error distributions on Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Future returns. By utilizing the theory of realized variance to construct an appropriate ex post measure of variance from intra-day data it is shown that allowing for a leptokurtic error distribution leads to significant improvements in variance forecasts compared to using the normal distribution. This result holds for daily, weekly as well as monthly forecast horizons. It is also found that allowing for skewness and time variation in the higher moments of the distribution does not further improve forecasts. In Essay 2, by using 20 years of daily Standard and Poor 500 index returns, it is found that density forecasts are much improved by allowing for constant excess kurtosis but not improved by allowing for skewness. By allowing the kurtosis and skewness to be time varying the density forecasts are not further improved but on the contrary made slightly worse. In Essay 3 a new model incorporating conditional variance, skewness and kurtosis based on the Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distribution is proposed. The new model and two previously used NIG models are evaluated by their Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts on a long series of daily Standard and Poor’s 500 returns. The results show that only the new model produces satisfactory VaR forecasts for both 1% and 5% VaR Taken together the results of the thesis show that kurtosis appears not to exhibit predictable time variation, whereas there is found some predictability in the skewness. However, the dynamic properties of the skewness are not completely captured by any of the models.