Nonlinear mixture autoregressive model: economic applications

The aim of this dissertation is to model economic variables by a mixture autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR model is a generalization of linear autoregressive (AR) model. The MAR -model consists of K linear autoregressive components. At any given point of time one of these autoregressive components is randomly selected to generate a new observation for the time series. The mixture probability can be constant over time or a direct function of a some observable variable. Many economic time series contain properties which cannot be described by linear and stationary time series models. A nonlinear autoregressive model such as MAR model can a plausible alternative in the case of these time series. In this dissertation the MAR model is used to model stock market bubbles and a relationship between inflation and the interest rate. In the case of the inflation rate we arrived at the MAR model where inflation process is less mean reverting in the case of high inflation than in the case of normal inflation. The interest rate move one-for-one with expected inflation. We use the data from the Livingston survey as a proxy for inflation expectations. We have found that survey inflation expectations are not perfectly rational. According to our results information stickiness play an important role in the expectation formation. We also found that survey participants have a tendency to underestimate inflation. A MAR model has also used to model stock market bubbles and crashes. This model has two regimes: the bubble regime and the error correction regime. In the error correction regime price depends on a fundamental factor, the price-dividend ratio, and in the bubble regime, price is independent of fundamentals. In this model a stock market crash is usually caused by a regime switch from a bubble regime to an error-correction regime. According to our empirical results bubbles are related to a low inflation. Our model also imply that bubbles have influences investment return distribution in both short and long run.

Ultrasound-assisted surface engineering of pharmaceutical powders

Effective processing of powdered particles can facilitate powder handling and result in better drug product performance, which is of great importance in the pharmaceutical industry where the majority of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) are delivered as solid dosage forms. The purpose of this work was to develop a new ultrasound-assisted method for particle surface modification and thin-coating of pharmaceutical powders. The ultrasound was used to produce an aqueous mist with or without a coating agent. By using the proposed technique, it was possible to decrease the interparticular interactions and improve rheological properties of poorly-flowing water-soluble powders by aqueous smoothing of the rough surfaces of irregular particles. In turn, hydrophilic polymer thin-coating of a hydrophobic substance diminished the triboelectrostatic charge transfer and improved the flowability of highly cohesive powder. To determine the coating efficiency of the technique, the bioactive molecule β-galactosidase was layered onto the surface of powdered lactose particles. Enzyme-treated materials were analysed by assaying the quantity of the reaction product generated during enzymatic cleavage of the milk sugar. A near-linear increase in the thickness of the drug layer was obtained during progressive treatment. Using the enzyme coating procedure, it was confirmed that the ultrasound-assisted technique is suitable for processing labile protein materials. In addition, this pre-treatment of milk sugar could be used to improve utilization of lactose-containing formulations for populations suffering from severe lactose intolerance. Furthermore, the applicability of the thin-coating technique for improving homogeneity of low-dose solid dosage forms was shown. The carrier particles coated with API gave rise to uniform distribution of the drug within the powder. The mixture remained homogeneous during further tabletting, whereas the reference physical powder mixture was subject to segregation. In conclusion, ultrasound-assisted surface engineering of pharmaceutical powders can be effective technology for improving formulation and performance of solid dosage forms such as dry powder inhalers (DPI) and direct compression products.

Liquid Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry in Studies of Drug Metabolism and Permeability

Poor pharmacokinetics is one of the reasons for the withdrawal of drug candidates from clinical trials. There is an urgent need for investigating in vitro ADME (absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion) properties and recognising unsuitable drug candidates as early as possible in the drug development process. Current throughput of in vitro ADME profiling is insufficient because effective new synthesis techniques, such as drug design in silico and combinatorial synthesis, have vastly increased the number of drug candidates. Assay technologies for larger sets of compounds than are currently feasible are critically needed. The first part of this work focused on the evaluation of cocktail strategy in studies of drug permeability and metabolic stability. N-in-one liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS/MS) methods were developed and validated for the multiple component analysis of samples in cocktail experiments. Together, cocktail dosing and LC/MS/MS were found to form an effective tool for increasing throughput. First, cocktail dosing, i.e. the use of a mixture of many test compounds, was applied in permeability experiments with Caco-2 cell culture, which is a widely used in vitro model for small intestinal absorption. A cocktail of 7-10 reference compounds was successfully evaluated for standardization and routine testing of the performance of Caco-2 cell cultures. Secondly, cocktail strategy was used in metabolic stability studies of drugs with UGT isoenzymes, which are one of the most important phase II drug metabolizing enzymes. The study confirmed that the determination of intrinsic clearance (Clint) as a cocktail of seven substrates is possible. The LC/MS/MS methods that were developed were fast and reliable for the quantitative analysis of a heterogenous set of drugs from Caco-2 permeability experiments and the set of glucuronides from in vitro stability experiments. The performance of a new ionization technique, atmospheric pressure photoionization (APPI), was evaluated through comparison with electrospray ionization (ESI), where both techniques were used for the analysis of Caco-2 samples. Like ESI, also APPI proved to be a reliable technique for the analysis of Caco-2 samples and even more flexible than ESI because of the wider dynamic linear range. The second part of the experimental study focused on metabolite profiling. Different mass spectrometric instruments and commercially available software tools were investigated for profiling metabolites in urine and hepatocyte samples. All the instruments tested (triple quadrupole, quadrupole time-of-flight, ion trap) exhibited some good and some bad features in searching for and identifying of expected and non-expected metabolites. Although, current profiling software is helpful, it is still insufficient. Thus a time-consuming largely manual approach is still required for metabolite profiling from complex biological matrices.

Distribution and adhesion-promoting activity of alpha4 and alpha5 chain laminins in human endothelia and carcinomas

Basement membranes are specialized sheets of extracellular matrix found in contact with epithelia, endothelia, and certain isolated cells. They support tissue architecture and regulate cell behaviour. Laminins are among the main constituents of basement membranes. Due to differences between laminin isoforms, laminins confer structural and functional diversity to basement membranes. The first aim of this study was to gain insights into the potential functions of the then least characterized laminins, alpha4 chain laminins, by evaluating their distribution in human tissues. We thus created a monoclonal antibody specific for laminin alpha4 chain. By immunohistochemistry, alpha4 chain laminins were primarily localized to basement membranes of blood vessel endothelia, skeletal, heart, and smooth muscle cells, nerves, and adipocytes. In addition, alpha4 chain laminins were found in the region of certain epithelial basement membranes in the epidermis, salivary gland, pancreas, esophagus, stomach, intestine, and kidney. Because of the consistent presence of alpha4 chain laminins in endothelial basement membranes of blood vessels, we evaluated the potential roles of endothelial laminins in blood vessels, lymphatic vessels, and carcinomas. Human endothelial cells produced alpha4 and alpha5 chain laminins. In quantitative and morphological adhesion assays, human endothelial cells barely adhered to alpha4 chain-containing laminin-411. The weak interaction of endothelial cells with laminin-411 appeared to be mediated by alpha6beta1 integrin. The alpha5 chain-containing laminin-511 promoted endothelial cell adhesion better than laminin-411, but it did not promote the formation of cell-extracellular matrix adhesion complexes. The adhesion of endothelial cells to laminin-511 appeared to be mediated by Lutheran glycoprotein together with beta1 and alphavbeta3 integrins. The results suggest that these laminins may induce a migratory phenotype in endothelial cells. In lymphatic capillaries, endothelial basement membranes showed immunoreactivity for laminin alpha4, beta1, beta2, and gamma1 chains, type IV and XVIII collagens, and nidogen-1. Considering the assumed inability of alpha4 chain laminins to polymerize and to promote basement membrane assembly, the findings may in part explain the incomplete basement membrane formation in these vessels. Lymphatic capillaries of ovarian carcinomas showed immunoreactivity also for laminin alpha5 chain and its receptor Lutheran glycoprotein, emphasizing a difference between normal and ovarian carcinoma lymphatic capillaries. In renal cell carcinomas, immunoreactivity for laminin alpha4 chain was found in stroma and basement membranes of blood vessels. In most tumours, immunoreactivity for laminin alpha4 chain was also observed in the basement membrane region of tumour cell islets. Renal carcinoma cells produced alpha4 chain laminins. Laminin-411 did not promote adhesion of renal carcinoma cells, but inhibited their adhesion to fibronectin. Renal carcinoma cells migrated more on laminin-411 than on fibronectin. The results suggest that alpha4 chain laminins have a counteradhesive function, and may thus have a role in detachment and invasion of renal carcinoma cells.

Composition operators, Aleksandrov measures and value distribution of analytic maps in the unit disc

A composition operator is a linear operator that precomposes any given function with another function, which is held fixed and called the symbol of the composition operator. This dissertation studies such operators and questions related to their theory in the case when the functions to be composed are analytic in the unit disc of the complex plane. Thus the subject of the dissertation lies at the intersection of analytic function theory and operator theory. The work contains three research articles. The first article is concerned with the value distribution of analytic functions. In the literature there are two different conditions which characterize when a composition operator is compact on the Hardy spaces of the unit disc. One condition is in terms of the classical Nevanlinna counting function, defined inside the disc, and the other condition involves a family of certain measures called the Aleksandrov (or Clark) measures and supported on the boundary of the disc. The article explains the connection between these two approaches from a function-theoretic point of view. It is shown that the Aleksandrov measures can be interpreted as kinds of boundary limits of the Nevanlinna counting function as one approaches the boundary from within the disc. The other two articles investigate the compactness properties of the difference of two composition operators, which is beneficial for understanding the structure of the set of all composition operators. The second article considers this question on the Hardy and related spaces of the disc, and employs Aleksandrov measures as its main tool. The results obtained generalize those existing for the case of a single composition operator. However, there are some peculiarities which do not occur in the theory of a single operator. The third article studies the compactness of the difference operator on the Bloch and Lipschitz spaces, improving and extending results given in the previous literature. Moreover, in this connection one obtains a general result which characterizes the compactness and weak compactness of the difference of two weighted composition operators on certain weighted Hardy-type spaces.

Modeling Asymmetries in Financial Data with Multiplicative Error Models

This thesis addresses modeling of financial time series, especially stock market returns and daily price ranges. Modeling data of this kind can be approached with so-called multiplicative error models (MEM). These models nest several well known time series models such as GARCH, ACD and CARR models. They are able to capture many well established features of financial time series including volatility clustering and leptokurtosis. In contrast to these phenomena, different kinds of asymmetries have received relatively little attention in the existing literature. In this thesis asymmetries arise from various sources. They are observed in both conditional and unconditional distributions, for variables with non-negative values and for variables that have values on the real line. In the multivariate context asymmetries can be observed in the marginal distributions as well as in the relationships of the variables modeled. New methods for all these cases are proposed. Chapter 2 considers GARCH models and modeling of returns of two stock market indices. The chapter introduces the so-called generalized hyperbolic (GH) GARCH model to account for asymmetries in both conditional and unconditional distribution. In particular, two special cases of the GARCH-GH model which describe the data most accurately are proposed. They are found to improve the fit of the model when compared to symmetric GARCH models. The advantages of accounting for asymmetries are also observed through Value-at-Risk applications. Both theoretical and empirical contributions are provided in Chapter 3 of the thesis. In this chapter the so-called mixture conditional autoregressive range (MCARR) model is introduced, examined and applied to daily price ranges of the Hang Seng Index. The conditions for the strict and weak stationarity of the model as well as an expression for the autocorrelation function are obtained by writing the MCARR model as a first order autoregressive process with random coefficients. The chapter also introduces inverse gamma (IG) distribution to CARR models. The advantages of CARR-IG and MCARR-IG specifications over conventional CARR models are found in the empirical application both in- and out-of-sample. Chapter 4 discusses the simultaneous modeling of absolute returns and daily price ranges. In this part of the thesis a vector multiplicative error model (VMEM) with asymmetric Gumbel copula is found to provide substantial benefits over the existing VMEM models based on elliptical copulas. The proposed specification is able to capture the highly asymmetric dependence of the modeled variables thereby improving the performance of the model considerably. The economic significance of the results obtained is established when the information content of the volatility forecasts derived is examined.

Effects of turbidity on feeding and distribution of fish

In aquatic systems, the ability of both the predator and prey to detect each other may be impaired by turbidity. This could lead to significant changes in the trophic interactions in the food web of lakes. Most fish use their vision for predation and the location of prey can be highly influenced by light level and clarity of the water environment. Turbidity is an optical property of water that causes light to be scattered and absorbed by particles and molecules. Turbidity is highly variable in lakes, due to seasonal changes in suspended sediments, algal blooms and wind-driven suspension of sediments especially in shallow waters. There is evidence that human activity has increased erosion leading to increased turbidity in aquatic systems. Turbidity could also play a significant role in distribution of fish. Turbidity could act as a cover for small fish and reduce predation risk. Diel horizontal migration by fish is common in shallow lakes and is considered as consequences of either optimal foraging behaviour for food or as a trade-off between foraging and predator avoidance. In turbid lakes, diel horizontal migration patterns could differ since turbidity can act as a refuge itself and affect the predator-prey interactions. Laboratory experiments were conducted with perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) and white bream (Abramis björkna (L.)) to clarify the effects of turbidity on their feeding. Additionally to clarify the effects of turbidity on predator preying on different types of prey, pikeperch larvae (Sander lucioperca (L.)), Daphnia pulex (Leydig), Sida crystallina (O.F. Müller), and Chaoborus flavicans (Meigen) were used as prey in different experiments. To clarify the role of turbidity in distribution and diel horizontal migration of perch, roach (Rutilus rutilus (L.)) and white bream, field studies were conducted in shallow turbid lakes. A clear and a turbid shallow lake were compared to investigate distribution of perch and roach in these two lakes in a 15-year study period. Feeding efficiency of perch and white bream was not significantly affected with increasing clay turbidity up to 50 NTU. The perch experiments with pikeperch larvae suggested that clay turbidity could act as a refuge especially at turbidity levels higher than 50 NTU. Perch experiments with different prey types suggested that pikeperch larvae probably use turbidity as a refuge better compared to Daphnia. Increase in turbidity probably has stronger affect on perch predating on plant-attached prey. The main findings of the thesis show that turbidity can play a significant role in distribution of fish. Perch and roach could use turbidity as refuge when macrophytes disappear while small perch may also use high turbidity as refuge when macrophytes are present. Floating-leaved macrophytes are probably good refuges for small fish in clay-turbid lakes and provide a certain level of turbidity and not too complex structure for refuge. The results give light to the predator-prey interactions in turbid environments. Turbidity of water should be taken in to account when studying the diel horizontal migrations and distribution of fish in shallow lakes.

Phospholipids of lipid-containing bacteriophages and their transbilayer distribution

In this study we used electro-spray ionization mass-spectrometry to determine phospholipid class and molecular species compositions in bacteriophages PM2, PRD1, Bam35 and phi6 as well as their hosts. To obtain compositional data of the individual leaflets, phospholipid transbilayer distribution in the viral membranes was studied. We found that 1) the membranes of all studied bacteriophage are enriched in PG as compared to the host membranes, 2) molecular species compositions in the phage and host membranes are similar, and 3) phospholipids in the viral membranes are distributed asymmetrically with phosphatidylglycerol enriched in the outer leaflet and phosphatidylethanolamine in the inner one (except Bam35). Alternative models for selective incorporation of phospholipids to phages and for the origins of the asymmetric phospholipid transbilayer distribution are discussed. Notably, the present data are also useful when constructing high resolution structural models of bacteriophages, since diffraction methods cannot provide a detailed structure of the membrane due to high motility of the lipids and lack of symmetric organization of membrane proteins.

Distribution of non-biting midges (Diptera, Chironomidae) in subarctic lakes of Finnish Lapland applications in lake classification and palaeolimnology

Climate change contributes directly or indirectly to changes in species distributions, and there is very high confidence that recent climate warming is already affecting ecosystems. The Arctic has already experienced the greatest regional warming in recent decades, and the trend is continuing. However, studies on the northern ecosystems are scarce compared to more southerly regions. Better understanding of the past and present environmental change is needed to be able to forecast the future. Multivariate methods were used to explore the distributional patterns of chironomids in 50 shallow (≤ 10m) lakes in relation to 24 variables determined in northern Fennoscandia at the ecotonal area from the boreal forest in the south to the orohemiarctic zone in the north. Highest taxon richness was noted at middle elevations around 400 m a.s.l. Significantly lower values were observed from cold lakes situated in the tundra zone. Lake water alkalinity had the strongest positive correlation with the taxon richness. Many taxa had preference for lakes either on tundra area or forested area. The variation in the chironomid abundance data was best correlated with sediment organic content (LOI), lake water total organic carbon content, pH and air temperature, with LOI being the strongest variable. Three major lake groups were separated on the basis of their chironomid assemblages: (i) small and shallow organic-rich lakes, (ii) large and base-rich lakes, and (iii) cold and clear oligotrophic tundra lakes. Environmental variables best discriminating the lake groups were LOI, taxon richness, and Mg. When repeated, this kind of an approach could be useful and efficient in monitoring the effects of global change on species ranges. Many species of fast spreading insects, including chironomids, show a remarkable ability to track environmental changes. Based on this ability, past environmental conditions have been reconstructed using their chitinous remains in the lake sediment profiles. In order to study the Holocene environmental history of subarctic aquatic systems, and quantitatively reconstruct the past temperatures at or near the treeline, long sediment cores covering the last 10000 years (the Holocene) were collected from three lakes. Lower temperature values than expected based on the presence of pine in the catchment during the mid-Holocene were reconstructed from a lake with great water volume and depth. The lake provided thermal refuge for profundal, cold adapted taxa during the warm period. In a shallow lake, the decrease in the reconstructed temperatures during the late Holocene may reflect the indirect response of the midges to climate change through, e.g., pH change. The results from three lakes indicated that the response of chironomids to climate have been more or less indirect. However, concurrent shifts in assemblages of chironomids and vegetation in two lakes during the Holocene time period indicated that the midges together with the terrestrial vegetation had responded to the same ultimate cause, which most likely was the Holocene climate change. This was also supported by the similarity in the long-term trends in faunal succession for the chironomid assemblages in several lakes in the area. In northern Finnish Lapland the distribution of chironomids were significantly correlated with physical and limnological factors that are most likely to change as a result of future climate change. The indirect and individualistic response of aquatic systems, as reconstructed using the chironomid assemblages, to the climate change in the past suggests that in the future, the lake ecosystems in the north do not respond in one predictable way to the global climate change. Lakes in the north may respond to global climate change in various ways that are dependent on the initial characters of the catchment area and the lake.