Simplified Treatment of Childhood Acute Bone and Joint Infections

Acute childhood osteomyelitis (OM), septic arthritis (SA), and their combination osteomyelitis with adjacent septic arthritis (OM+SA), are treated with long courses of antimicrobials and immediate surgery. We conducted a prospective multi-center randomized trial among Finnish children at age 3 months to 15 years in 1983-2005. According to the two-by-two factorial study design, children with OM or OM+SA received 20 or 30 days of antimicrobials, whereas those with SA were treated for 10 or 30 days. In addition, the whole series was randomized to be treated with clindamycin or a first-generation cephalosporin. Cases were included only if the causative agent was isolated. The treatment was instituted intravenously, but only for the first 2-4 days. Percutaneous aspiration was done to obtain a representative sample for bacteriology, but all other surgical intervention was kept at a minimum. A total of 265 patients fulfilled our strict inclusion criteria and were analyzed; 106 children had OM, 134 SA, and 25 OM+SA. In the OM group, one child in the long and one child in the short-term treatment group developed sequelae. One child with SA twice developed a late re-infection of the same joint, but the causative agents differed. Regarding surgery, diagnostic arthrocentesis or corticotomy was the only surgical procedure performed in most cases. Routine arthrotomy was not required even in hip arthritis. Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) proved to be a reliable laboratory index in the diagnosis and monitoring of osteoarticular infections. The recovery rate was similar regardless of whether clindamycin or a first-generation cephalosporin was used. We conclude that a course of 20 days of these well-absorbing antimicrobials is sufficient for OM or OM+SA, and 10 days for SA in most cases beyond the neonatal age. A short intravenous phase of only 2-5 days often suffices. CRP gives valuable information in monitoring the course of illness. Besides diagnostic aspiration, surgery should be reserved for selected cases.

Pitch discrimination in optimal and suboptimal acoustic environments: electroencephalographic, magnetoencephalographic, and behavioral evidence

Pitch discrimination is a fundamental property of the human auditory system. Our understanding of pitch-discrimination mechanisms is important from both theoretical and clinical perspectives. The discrimination of spectrally complex sounds is crucial in the processing of music and speech. Current methods of cognitive neuroscience can track the brain processes underlying sound processing either with precise temporal (EEG and MEG) or spatial resolution (PET and fMRI). A combination of different techniques is therefore required in contemporary auditory research. One of the problems in comparing the EEG/MEG and fMRI methods, however, is the fMRI acoustic noise. In the present thesis, EEG and MEG in combination with behavioral techniques were used, first, to define the ERP correlates of automatic pitch discrimination across a wide frequency range in adults and neonates and, second, they were used to determine the effect of recorded acoustic fMRI noise on those adult ERP and ERF correlates during passive and active pitch discrimination. Pure tones and complex 3-harmonic sounds served as stimuli in the oddball and matching-to-sample paradigms. The results suggest that pitch discrimination in adults, as reflected by MMN latency, is most accurate in the 1000-2000 Hz frequency range, and that pitch discrimination is facilitated further by adding harmonics to the fundamental frequency. Newborn infants are able to discriminate a 20% frequency change in the 250-4000 Hz frequency range, whereas the discrimination of a 5% frequency change was unconfirmed. Furthermore, the effect of the fMRI gradient noise on the automatic processing of pitch change was more prominent for tones with frequencies exceeding 500 Hz, overlapping with the spectral maximum of the noise. When the fundamental frequency of the tones was lower than the spectral maximum of the noise, fMRI noise had no effect on MMN and P3a, whereas the noise delayed and suppressed N1 and exogenous N2. Noise also suppressed the N1 amplitude in a matching-to-sample working memory task. However, the task-related difference observed in the N1 component, suggesting a functional dissociation between the processing of spatial and non-spatial auditory information, was partially preserved in the noise condition. Noise hampered feature coding mechanisms more than it hampered the mechanisms of change detection, involuntary attention, and the segregation of the spatial and non-spatial domains of working-memory. The data presented in the thesis can be used to develop clinical ERP-based frequency-discrimination protocols and combined EEG and fMRI experimental paradigms.

Early Childhood Caries and a Community Trial of its Prevention in Tehran, Iran

Varhaislapsuuden karies ja sen ehkäisy kehittyvän terveydenhuollon maassa Varhaislapsuuden karies on merkittävä kansanterveysongelma varsinkin lapsirikkaissa maissa ja väestöissä. Karieksen hoitaminen vie paljon voimavaroja ja aiheuttaa mittavia taloudellisia seuraamuksia. Karies voi ilmaantua lapselle jo vauvaikäisenä, pian ensimmäisten maitohampaiden puhjettua suuhun. Alle 3-vuotiaiden karieksesta on kuitenkin niukasti tilastotietoja. Maailman terveysjärjestökin suosittaa tietojen keräämistä vasta 3-vuotiaiden ikäryhmästä. Heistä kariesta sairastaa Suomessa 16 %, Yhdysvalloissa 25 %, Englannissa 30 %, Iranissa 46 % ja Saudi-Arabiassa 61 %. Tämä väitöstutkimus selvitti karieksen esiintymistä ja sen vaaratekijöitä 1─3-vuotiailla Teheranissa. Lisäksi tutkimus arvioi perusterveydenhuoltoon sisällytetyn karieksen ehkäisyn tuloksellisuutta. Tutkimuskohteiksi arvottiin Teheranista 18 neuvolaa. Jokaisessa oltiin 4 päivää, jolloin kaikkia rokotuksiin tulleita 1─3-vuotiaita äiteineen pyydettiin osallistumaan tutkimukseen. Kahta lukuun ottamatta kaikki äidit suostuivat, ja aineistoon tuli kaikkiaan 504 lasta äiteineen. Kaikki 1-vuotiaat, 242 lasta äiteineen, valittiin karieksen ehkäisykokeiluun. Sitä varten neuvolat jaettiin kolmeen ryhmään, joista kaksi (A ja B) oli koeryhmiä ja yksi (C) oli vertailuryhmä. Tutkimus alkoi äidin haastattelulla. Siinä selvitettiin perheen koulutus- ja tulotaso sekä lapsen ruokinnasta imetyksen kesto, yösyötöt ja päiväaikaan nautitut makeat. Vielä kysyttiin lapsen ja äidin suuhygieniatavoista ja äidin kokemuksista lapsen suun puhdistamisessa. Sitten hammaslääkäri tutki lapsen suun ja kirjasi karieksen ja hammasplakin esiintymät. Suun tutkimuksen jälkeen äiti ja lapsi siirtyivät rokotushuoneeseen. Koeryhmissä (A ja B) äidit saivat terveydenhoitajalta suunterveyttä koskevan esitteen ja kehotuksen lukea se huolellisesti. Lisäksi ryhmässä A terveydenhoitaja kertoi suun ja hampaiden terveydenhoidosta saman esitteen avulla, ja neuvolan henkilökunta muistutti suunhoidon tärkeydestä puhelimitse kahdesti seuraavan puolen vuoden kuluessa. Vertailuryhmässä äideille ei annettu suunhoidon ohjeita. Kaikissa ryhmissä äitejä muistutettiin seuraavan rokotuskerran ajankohdasta, muttei mainittu tulevaa toista hammastarkastusta. Varhaislapsuuden kariesta sairasti ikäryhmästä riippuen 3─26 % tutkituista 1─3-vuotiaista, ja 65─76 %:lla oli hammasplakkia. Äideistä 68 % harjasi hampaansa päivittäin ja 39 % puhdisti lapsensa suun päivittäin. Mitä useammin äiti harjasi omat hampaansa, sitä paremmin hän huolehti lapsen suun puhtaudesta. Rintaruokinta oli yleistä eikä lisännyt kariesvaaraa. Yöllä pullomaitoa saavilla karies oli 5 kertaa yleisempää kuin muilla. Neuvolassa saatu ohjeistus ehkäisi selvästi karieksen syntyä puolen vuoden kokeessa.

Effect of waiting time on health outcomes and service utilization : A prospective randomized study on patients admitted to hospital for hip or knee replacement

Although the principle of equal access to medically justified treatment has been promoted by official health policies in many Western health care systems, practices do not completely meet policy targets. Waiting times for elective surgery vary between patient groups and regions, and growing problems in the availability of services threaten equal access to treatment. Waiting times have come to the attention of decision-makers, and several policy initiatives have been introduced to ensure the availability of care within a reasonable time. In Finland, for example, the treatment guarantee came into force in 2005. However, no consensus exists on optimal waiting time for different patient groups. The purpose of this multi-centre randomized controlled trial was to analyse health-related quality of life, pain and physical function in total hip or knee replacement patients during the waiting time and to evaluate whether the waiting time is associated with patients health outcomes at admission. This study also assessed whether the length of waiting time is associated with social and health services utilization in patients awaiting total hip or knee replacement. In addition, patients health-related quality of life was compared with that of the general population. Consecutive patients with a need for a primary total hip or knee replacement due to osteoarthritis were placed on the waiting list between August 2002 and November 2003. Patients were randomly assigned to a short waiting time (maximum 3 months) or a non-fixed waiting time (waiting time not fixed in advance, instead the patient followed the hospitals routine practice). Patients health-related quality of life was measured upon being placed on the waiting list and again at hospital admission using the generic 15D instrument. Pain and physical function were evaluated using the self-report Harris Hip Score for hip patients and a scale modified from the Knee Society Clinical Rating System for knee patients. Utilization measures were the use of home health care, rehabilitation and social services, physician visits and inpatient care. Health and social services use was low in both waiting time groups. The most common services used while waiting were rehabilitation services and informal care, including unpaid care provided by relatives, neighbours and volunteers. Although patients suffered from clear restrictions in usual activities and physical functioning, they seemed primarily to lean on informal care and personal networks instead of professional care. While longer waiting time did not result in poorer health-related quality of life at admission and use of services during the waiting time was similar to that at the time of placement on the list, there is likely to be higher costs of waiting by people who wait longer simply because they are using services for a longer period. In economic terms, this would represent a negative impact of waiting. Only a few reports have been published of the health-related quality of life of patients awaiting total hip or knee replacement. These findings demonstrate that, in addition to physical dimensions of health, patients suffered from restrictions in psychological well-being such as depression, distress and reduced vitality. This raises the question of how to support patients who suffer from psychological distress during the waiting time and how to develop strategies to improve patients initiatives to reduce symptoms and the burden of waiting. Key words: waiting time, total hip replacement, total knee replacement, health-related quality of life, randomized controlled trial, outcome assessment, social service, utilization of health services

Musculoskeletal disorders and psychosocial factors at work : Effects of a participatory ergonomics intervention in a cluster randomized controlled trial

This study examined the efficacy of a participatory ergonomics intervention in preventing musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) and changing unsatisfactory psychosocial working conditions among municipal kitchen workers. The occurrence of multiple-site musculoskeletal pain (MSP) and associations between MSP and psychosocial factors at work over time were studied secondarily. A cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted during 2002-2005 in 119 municipal kitchens with 504 workers. The kitchens were randomized to an intervention (n = 59) and control (n = 60) group. The intervention lasted 11 to 14 months. The workers identified strenuous work tasks and sought solutions for decreasing physical and mental workload. The main outcomes were the occurrence of and trouble caused by musculoskeletal pain in seven anatomical sites, local musculoskeletal fatigue after work, and musculoskeletal sick leaves. Psychosocial factors at work (job control, skill discretion, co-worker relationships, supervisor support, mental strenuousness of work, hurry, job satisfaction) and mental stress were studied as intermediate outcomes of the intervention. Questionnaire data were collected at three months intervals during the intervention and the one-year post-intervention follow-up. Response rates varied between 92 % and 99 %. In total, 402 ergonomic changes were implemented. In the control group, 80 changes were spontaneously implemented within normal activity. The intervention did not reduce perceived physical workload and no systematic differences in any health outcomes were found between the intervention and control groups during the intervention or during the one-year follow-up. The results suggest that the intervention as studied in the present trial was not more effective in reducing perceived physical workload or preventing MSDs compared with no such intervention. Little previous evidence of the effectiveness of ergonomics interventions in preventing MSDs exists. The effects on psychosocial factors at work were adverse, especially in the two of the participating cities where re-organization of foodservices timed simultaneously with the intervention. If organizational reforms at workplace are expected to occur, the execution of other workplace interventions at the same time should be avoided. The co-occurrence of musculoskeletal pain at several sites is observed to be more common than pain at single anatomical sites. However, the risk factors of MSP are largely unknown. This study showed that at baseline, 73 % of the women reported pain in at least two, 36 % in four or more, and 10 % in six to seven sites. The seven pain symptoms occurred in over 80 different combinations. When co-occurrence of pain was studied in three larger anatomical areas (neck/low back, upper limbs, lower limbs), concurrent pain in all three areas was the most common combination (36 %). The 3-month prevalence of MSP (≥ 3 of seven sites) varied between 50 % and 61 % during the two-year follow-up period. Psychosocial factors at work and mental stress were strong predictors for MSP over time and, vice versa, MSP predicted psychosocial factors at work and mental stress. The reciprocality of the relationships implies either two mutually dependent processes in time, or some shared common underlying factor(s).

Uncertainty in forest simulators and forest planning systems

The forest simulator is a computerized model for predicting forest growth and future development as well as effects of forest harvests and treatments. The forest planning system is a decision support tool, usually including a forest simulator and an optimisation model, for finding the optimal forest management actions. The information produced by forest simulators and forest planning systems is used for various analytical purposes and in support of decision making. However, the quality and reliability of this information can often be questioned. Natural variation in forest growth and estimation errors in forest inventory, among other things, cause uncertainty in predictions of forest growth and development. This uncertainty stemming from different sources has various undesirable effects. In many cases outcomes of decisions based on uncertain information are something else than desired. The objective of this thesis was to study various sources of uncertainty and their effects in forest simulators and forest planning systems. The study focused on three notable sources of uncertainty: errors in forest growth predictions, errors in forest inventory data, and stochastic fluctuation of timber assortment prices. Effects of uncertainty were studied using two types of forest growth models, individual tree-level models and stand-level models, and with various error simulation methods. New method for simulating more realistic forest inventory errors was introduced and tested. Also, three notable sources of uncertainty were combined and their joint effects on stand-level net present value estimates were simulated. According to the results, the various sources of uncertainty can have distinct effects in different forest growth simulators. The new forest inventory error simulation method proved to produce more realistic errors. The analysis on the joint effects of various sources of uncertainty provided interesting knowledge about uncertainty in forest simulators.

Defining Adequate Vitamin D Intake : Cross-sectional and Intervention Studies

D-vitamiini ylläpitää normaalia luun kasvua ja uudistumista koko elämän ajan. Suomessa, kuten monissa muissakin länsimaissa, väestön D-vitamiinitilanne on riittämätön – talvisin osalla jopa puutteellinen. Tässä väitöskirjassa on tutkittu, lisääkö D-vitamiini luumassan kertymistä kasvuiässä, ja ylläpitäkö D-vitamiini luuston tasapainoista aineenvaihduntaa aikuisiällä. Nämä vaikutukset saattavat ehkäisi osteoporoosin kehittymistä eri ikäkausina. Väitöskirjatyössä tutkittiin erisuuruisten D-vitamiinilisäysten vaikutuksia kolmessa eri ikäryhmässä, jotka olivat 11-12 -vuotiaat tytöt (N=228), 21-49 -vuotiaat miehet (N=54) ja 65-85 -vuotiaat naiset (N=52). Tutkittavat satunnaistettiin ryhmiin, jotka nauttivat joko lumevalmistetta tai 5-20 µg D3-vitamiinia vitamiinilisänä. Tutkimukset olivat kaksoissokkoutettuja. Tutkimuksen aikana tutkittavilta otettiin paastoveri- ja virtsanäytteitä. Lisäksi he täyttivät tutkimuslomakkeen taustatietojen kartoittamiseksi sekä frekvenssikyselylomakkeen kalsiumin ja D-vitamiinin saannin selvittämiseksi. Tyttöjen luunmineraalitiheys (BMD) mitattiin DXA–laitteella ja miesten volumetrinen luuntiheys pQCT-menetelmällä. Näytteistä määritettiin mm. seerumin 25-hydroksi-D-vitamiinin (=S-25-OHD), lisäkilpirauhashormonin (=S-PTH) ja luun aineenvaihduntaa kuvaavien merkkiaineiden pitoisuuksia. Murrosikäisten tyttöjen poikkileikkaustutkimuksessa S-25-OHD- ja luun muodostusmerkkiaineen pitoisuudet vaihtelivat kuukausien välillä; suurimmat pitoisuudet mitattiin syyskuussa ja pienimmät maaliskuussa, mikä kuvastaa vuodenaikaisvaihtelua. Vastaava vaihtelu havaittiin lannerangan ja reisiluun BMD:ssä. D-vitamiinilisäyksellä oli myönteinen vaikutus tyttöjen luumassan lisääntymiseen. Suurin D-vitamiinilisä (10 µg/vrk) lisäsi luumassaa 17.2% enemmän reisiluussa ja 12.5% enemmän lannerangassa verrattuna lumevalmistetta nauttivien tyttöjen vastaaviin tuloksiin, mutta tulos riippui hoitomyöntyvyydestä. D-vitamiinin vaikutus luustoon välittyi vähentyneen luun hajotuksen kautta. Tutkimustuloksiin perustuen riittävä D-vitamiinin saanti murrosikäisille tytöille on 15 µg/vrk. D-vitamiinilisän vaikutus 65-85 -vuotiaiden naisten S-25-OHD-pitoisuuteen vakioitui kuudessa viikossa annoksen ollessa 5-20 µg/vrk. Näillä D-vitamiiniannoksilla ei saavutettu tavoiteltavaa S-25-OHD-pitoisuutta, joka on 80 nmol/l. Arvioimme, että 60 nmol/l -pitoisuuden, jota esiintyy kesäisin tämän ikäryhmän suomalaisilla, tämän ikäryhmän naiset saavuttaisivat 24 µg:n päivittäisellä D-vitamiinin saannilla. Terveillä miehillä havaittiin vuodenaikaisvaihtelu S-25-OHD- ja S-PTH-pitoisuudessa sekä luun hajotusta kuvaavassa merkkiainepitoisuudessa. Toisaalta vaihtelua ei havaittu radiuksen volumetrisessä luuntiheydessä eikä luun muodostusmerkkiaineen pitoisuudessa. Vuodenaikaisvaihtelu estettiin 17 µg:n päivittäisellä D-vitamiinin saannilla, mutta tämän ei havaittu vaikuttavan radiuksen luuntiheyteen kuusi kuukautta kestävän tutkimuksen aikana. Yhteenvetona todetaan, että D-vitamiinin saanti on edelleenkin riittämätöntä tutkimusten kohderyhmillä. Tämä näkyy S-25-OHD- ja PTH-pitoisuuden sekä luunaineenvaihduntaa kuvaavien merkkiaineiden vuodenaikaisvaihteluna, mikä on haitallista luuston hyvinvoinnille. D-vitamiinin saantia tulisi lisätä, jotta vähintäänkin riittävä D-vitamiinitilanne (S-25-OHD>50 nmol/l) tai mahdollisesti jopa tavoiteltava D-vitaminitilanne (S-25-OHD≥80 nmol/l) saavutettaisiin. Jotta D-vitamiinin saannin lisääminen olisi kaikissa ikäryhmissä mahdollista, on suunniteltava nykyistä enemmän D-vitamiinilla täydennettyjä elintarvikkeita.

Essays on socially optimal phosphorus policies in crop production

Phosphorus is a nutrient needed in crop production. While boosting crop yields it may also accelerate eutrophication in the surface waters receiving the phosphorus runoff. The privately optimal level of phosphorus use is determined by the input and output prices, and the crop response to phosphorus. Socially optimal use also takes into account the impact of phosphorus runoff on water quality. Increased eutrophication decreases the economic value of surface waters by Deteriorating fish stocks, curtailing the potential for recreational activities and by increasing the probabilities of mass algae blooms. In this dissertation, the optimal use of phosphorus is modelled as a dynamic optimization problem. The potentially plant available phosphorus accumulated in soil is treated as a dynamic state variable, the control variable being the annual phosphorus fertilization. For crop response to phosphorus, the state variable is more important than the annual fertilization. The level of this state variable is also a key determinant of the runoff of dissolved, reactive phosphorus. Also the loss of particulate phosphorus due to erosion is considered in the thesis, as well as its mitigation by constructing vegetative buffers. The dynamic model is applied for crop production on clay soils. At the steady state, the analysis focuses on the effects of prices, damage parameterization, discount rate and soil phosphorus carryover capacity on optimal steady state phosphorus use. The economic instruments needed to sustain the social optimum are also analyzed. According to the results the economic incentives should be conditioned on soil phosphorus values directly, rather than on annual phosphorus applications. The results also emphasize the substantial effects the differences in varying discount rates of the farmer and the social planner have on optimal instruments. The thesis analyzes the optimal soil phosphorus paths from its alternative initial levels. It also examines how erosion susceptibility of a parcel affects these optimal paths. The results underline the significance of the prevailing soil phosphorus status on optimal fertilization levels. With very high initial soil phosphorus levels, both the privately and socially optimal phosphorus application levels are close to zero as the state variable is driven towards its steady state. The soil phosphorus processes are slow. Therefore, depleting high phosphorus soils may take decades. The thesis also presents a methodologically interesting phenomenon in problems of maximizing the flow of discounted payoffs. When both the benefits and damages are related to the same state variable, the steady state solution may have an interesting property, under very general conditions: The tail of the payoffs of the privately optimal path as well as the steady state may provide a higher social welfare than the respective tail of the socially optimal path. The result is formalized and an applied to the created framework of optimal phosphorus use.

On probability-based inference under data missing by design

Whether a statistician wants to complement a probability model for observed data with a prior distribution and carry out fully probabilistic inference, or base the inference only on the likelihood function, may be a fundamental question in theory, but in practice it may well be of less importance if the likelihood contains much more information than the prior. Maximum likelihood inference can be justified as a Gaussian approximation at the posterior mode, using flat priors. However, in situations where parametric assumptions in standard statistical models would be too rigid, more flexible model formulation, combined with fully probabilistic inference, can be achieved using hierarchical Bayesian parametrization. This work includes five articles, all of which apply probability modeling under various problems involving incomplete observation. Three of the papers apply maximum likelihood estimation and two of them hierarchical Bayesian modeling. Because maximum likelihood may be presented as a special case of Bayesian inference, but not the other way round, in the introductory part of this work we present a framework for probability-based inference using only Bayesian concepts. We also re-derive some results presented in the original articles using the toolbox equipped herein, to show that they are also justifiable under this more general framework. Here the assumption of exchangeability and de Finetti's representation theorem are applied repeatedly for justifying the use of standard parametric probability models with conditionally independent likelihood contributions. It is argued that this same reasoning can be applied also under sampling from a finite population. The main emphasis here is in probability-based inference under incomplete observation due to study design. This is illustrated using a generic two-phase cohort sampling design as an example. The alternative approaches presented for analysis of such a design are full likelihood, which utilizes all observed information, and conditional likelihood, which is restricted to a completely observed set, conditioning on the rule that generated that set. Conditional likelihood inference is also applied for a joint analysis of prevalence and incidence data, a situation subject to both left censoring and left truncation. Other topics covered are model uncertainty and causal inference using posterior predictive distributions. We formulate a non-parametric monotonic regression model for one or more covariates and a Bayesian estimation procedure, and apply the model in the context of optimal sequential treatment regimes, demonstrating that inference based on posterior predictive distributions is feasible also in this case.

Joint Regression and Association Models for Repeated Categorical Responses

The focus of this study is on statistical analysis of categorical responses, where the response values are dependent of each other. The most typical example of this kind of dependence is when repeated responses have been obtained from the same study unit. For example, in Paper I, the response of interest is the pneumococcal nasopharengyal carriage (yes/no) on 329 children. For each child, the carriage is measured nine times during the first 18 months of life, and thus repeated respones on each child cannot be assumed independent of each other. In the case of the above example, the interest typically lies in the carriage prevalence, and whether different risk factors affect the prevalence. Regression analysis is the established method for studying the effects of risk factors. In order to make correct inferences from the regression model, the associations between repeated responses need to be taken into account. The analysis of repeated categorical responses typically focus on regression modelling. However, further insights can also be gained by investigating the structure of the association. The central theme in this study is on the development of joint regression and association models. The analysis of repeated, or otherwise clustered, categorical responses is computationally difficult. Likelihood-based inference is often feasible only when the number of repeated responses for each study unit is small. In Paper IV, an algorithm is presented, which substantially facilitates maximum likelihood fitting, especially when the number of repeated responses increase. In addition, a notable result arising from this work is the freely available software for likelihood-based estimation of clustered categorical responses.

Computationally Efficient Methods for MDL-Optimal Density Estimation and Data Clustering

The Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle is a general, well-founded theoretical formalization of statistical modeling. The most important notion of MDL is the stochastic complexity, which can be interpreted as the shortest description length of a given sample of data relative to a model class. The exact definition of the stochastic complexity has gone through several evolutionary steps. The latest instantation is based on the so-called Normalized Maximum Likelihood (NML) distribution which has been shown to possess several important theoretical properties. However, the applications of this modern version of the MDL have been quite rare because of computational complexity problems, i.e., for discrete data, the definition of NML involves an exponential sum, and in the case of continuous data, a multi-dimensional integral usually infeasible to evaluate or even approximate accurately. In this doctoral dissertation, we present mathematical techniques for computing NML efficiently for some model families involving discrete data. We also show how these techniques can be used to apply MDL in two practical applications: histogram density estimation and clustering of multi-dimensional data.

Strategic Information Acquisition: Applications to Herding and Auctions

The information that the economic agents have and regard relevant to their decision making is often assumed to be exogenous in economics. It is assumed that the agents either poses or can observe the payoff relevant information without having to exert any effort to acquire it. In this thesis we relax the assumption of ex-ante fixed information structure and study what happens to the equilibrium behavior when the agents must also decide what information to acquire and when to acquire it. This thesis addresses this question in the two essays on herding and two essays on auction theory. In the first two essays, that are joint work with Klaus Kultti, we study herding models where it is costly to acquire information on the actions that the preceding agents have taken. In our model the agents have to decide both the action that they take and additionally the information that they want to acquire by observing their predecessors. We characterize the equilibrium behavior when the decision to observe preceding agents' actions is endogenous and show how the equilibrium outcome may differ from the standard model, where all preceding agents actions are assumed to be observable. In the latter part of this thesis we study two dynamic auctions: the English and the Dutch auction. We consider a situation where bidder(s) are uninformed about their valuations for the object that is put up for sale and they may acquire this information for a small cost at any point during the auction. We study the case of independent private valuations. In the third essay of the thesis we characterize the equilibrium behavior in an English auction when there are informed and uninformed bidders. We show that the informed bidder may jump bid and signal to the uninformed that he has a high valuation, thus deterring the uninformed from acquiring information and staying in the auction. The uninformed optimally acquires information once the price has passed a particular threshold and the informed has not signalled that his valuation is high. In addition, we provide an example of an information structure where the informed bidder initially waits and then makes multiple jumps. In the fourth essay of this thesis we study the Dutch auction. We consider two cases where all bidders are all initially uninformed. In the first case the information acquisition cost is the same across all bidders and in the second also the cost of information acquisition is independently distributed and private information to the bidders. We characterize a mixed strategy equilibrium in the first and a pure strategy equilibrium in the second case. In addition we provide a conjecture of an equilibrium in an asymmetric situation where there is one informed and one uninformed bidder. We compare the revenues that the first price auction and the Dutch auction generate and we find that under some circumstances the Dutch auction outperforms the first price sealed bid auction. The usual first price sealed bid auction and the Dutch auction are strategically equivalent. However, this equivalence breaks down in case information is acquired during the auction.